Russia 2010: And What It Means for the World

by Daniel Yergin, Thane Gustafson

2010: Russia disintegrates as its frontier regions rebel or drift into the orbit of neighboring countries. 2010: Russia is invigorated by an economic chudo -- "miracle" -- that turns it into a thriving exemplar of the free market. 2010: Russia becomes a grim military dictatorship, bent on expansion.

This brilliant and visionary book, which is based on a confidential report by the international consulting firm CERA, offers several persuasively detailed scenarios of Russia's future. Using the management technique of "scenario planning" and drawing on an extensive knowledge of Russia's political and economic history, Daniel Yergin and Thane Gustafson have produced a study that is already shaping the investment strategies of major corporations and that will become an essential text in the policy debates about the next century. Russia 2010 captures in a timely way the changes shaking Russia and the former Soviet Union after Communism. The result is one of those rare books that not only predict the future but have the power to change it.

Genres: Nonfiction, Russia, History, Politics, Economics

352 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 1993

About the author

Daniel Yergin is the author of the new bestseller The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World which has been hailed as “a fascinating saga” about the “quest for sustainable resources of energy,” and “the book you must read to understand the future of our economy and our way of life,” not to mention “necessary reading for C.E.O.’s, conservationists, lawmakers, generals, spies, tech geeks, thriller writers. . . and many others.”

He received the Pulitzer Prize for The Prize: the Epic Quest for Oil Money and Power, which became a number one New York Times best seller and has been translated into 17 languages.

Dr. Yergin is Vice Chairman of IHS and Founder of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and serves as CNBC’s Global Energy Expert.

Other books by Dr. Yergin include Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy. Dr. Yergin has also written for The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The Atlantic, Los Angeles Times, International Herald Tribune, and many other publications.

Both The Prize and Commanding Heights were made into award winning documentaries. The eight-hour miniseries The Prize was aired on PBS, BBC, and NHK and viewed by 20 million viewers in the United States alone. The 6-hour documentary Commanding Heights that Dr. Yergin produced received three Emmy nominations, and the New York Festivals Gold World Medal for best documentary.

Dr. Yergin serves on the U.S. Secretary of Energy Advisory Board and chaired the US Department of Energy’s Task Force on Strategic Energy Research and Development. He is a Trustee of the Brookings Institution, on the Board of the New America Foundation, and on the Advisory Board of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Initiative.

Dr. Yergin holds a BA from Yale University and a PhD from Cambridge University, where he was a Marshall Scholar.

Reviews

[Max Nemtsov · Rating 5 out of 5]

Все чаще приходится вспоминать эту книгу, которая произвела на меня очень большое впечатление в начале 90х - и во многом подготовила к тому, что было позже. Чуваки, как оказалось, ебаные гении - с поправками на то, чем они занимались и для чего делали свои прогнозы. На русском она тоже есть и продается до сих пор - правда, я не знаю, что там с переводом. Сценарий, который у них назывался "Русский медведь",  из всех предложенных казался самым, конечно, кошмарным. Судите, впрочем, сами, насколько реальность сейчас превзошла его.

[Mary Kluczycki · Rating 3 out of 5]

The predictions are eerily like what is occurring in the US today. The chapters re: Russia and Ukraine are still relevant today. Regret that Putin was not identified at all - one of those “surprises.”
Interesting to see Russia still in the Russian Bear costume - should do another version Russia 2050.

[Yama Chen · Rating 2 out of 5]

“Predicting is difficult, especially about the future” by Niels Bohr.

[Balazs Badics · Rating 5 out of 5]

I guess this book is not rated much higher because relatively few people know about it. It deserves a much higher rating and much more people should (have) read it. It was written basically after the fall of the Soviet Union, in the early 1990s (first published in 1993), and at that time Daniel Yergin was working on different, but realistic scenarios of political, economic and financial development of some key regions of the world, like the FSU; or Africa; to predict the trends and markets for global companies to invest or not to invest in these regions. That was the background. This book is extremely powerful, as it predicted 3-4 potential scenarios of the Russian political, economical, cultural and military developments from 1993 to 2010, and unfortunately one of them have become the reality. Daniel Yergin in 1993, already predicted with high precision, that Russia will become a military, nationalistic dictatorship by the mid 2010s, an would start a war against its neighbours, like Ukraine and Georgia. He also assessed a potential war against the Baltic states, which has so far, fortunately, not happened. The book is excellent, as it describes the demographic, human behaviour, historical and economical reasons for these scenarios.

[Steve · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book offers Russia's possible futures given the Soviet Union's collapse. At the time of 2010's publishing (1994), Russia was reeling from its own implosion and the rebellion of some of its former Soviet satellites. Twenty years later (2014) 2010 is even more interesting since Russia has embraced a form of rule at odds with the liberal elements of society seeking freedom of the press, artistic expression, and a more democratic government. Vladimir Putin seems bent on maintaining a powerful centralized government and limiting the reforms and rights of its citizens. These democratic elements are two generations removed from the absolute rule of the Communist Party. 2010 is worth reading just to compare Yergin's forecast with what actually happened.

[Denis Korsunov · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book was written at 1994 and authors tried to forecast a bunch of possible scenarios for Russia in 2010 on the way of building of "Capitalism Russian-Style". Even on base of very short observation period after collapse of Soviet Union, the authors was able to make sound variants of future events.
In overall, yes, forecast is fulfilled. And we (readers) can expect from authors for review of 1994-2010 period with analysis of what happened and what not.
Very interesting and detailed book with demonstration of approach of formulating and reasoning possible scenarios.

[Mark · Rating 3 out of 5]

Readability 6. Rating 6. Another book for Russian Civ. An excellent view of what might be in Russia's relatively near future. I will enjoy looking back to see if we are totally off base.

[Hans Hoffmann · Rating 4 out of 5]

Though not nearly as epic as "The Prize" it's an interesting read on how things were predicted in 1993 and then knowing what we know today how Russia has turned out.