Teaching about the Future

by Peter C. Bishop

Lists of Tables List of Figures Preface Purposes Acknowledgements Introduction Introducing the Future Why Teach the Future? The Problem of Prediction The Future(s) Be Prepared Imagine the Future Create the Future The Tricks of Foresight Telling Stories Pursuing Visions The Benefits of Foresight Structure of the Book PART UNDERSTANDING Models of Change Introduction Understanding Change What is Change? How Much Change is There? The Four Dimensions of Change A Model of Punctuated Equilibrium 'What can we know about the future?' [Not] Predicting the Future Certainty Assumptions Types of the Cone of Plausibility Futures Methods Some Definitions Around Methods Thinking about the Future Framework Conclusion Resources Systems Thinking Introduction History Limits to Three Strikes! Generalization System Behaviours Approach Cybernetic Systems Complex Adaptive Systems Conclusion Resources Perspectives on the Future Introduction History Empirical and Cultural Critical Integral Generalization Approach Causal Layered Analysis Integral Futures Conclusion Resources Social Change Introduction History Generalization Explaining Social Change Critical Assumptions Approach Conclusion Resources PART MAPPING Research Introduction History Generalization Choosing a Domain Primary Research Secondary Research Approach Research Supports Framework Forecasting Conclusion Resources Scanning Introduction History Generalization Why Scanning is Difficult Approach Identify Scanning Hits Scan a Wide Range of Sources Operate at Different Levels of the Domain Keep an Eye on Wildcards Keep Track of Your Hits Distinguish Types of Scanning Hits Establish Criteria for Evaluating Scanning Hits Conclusion Resources Forecasting Introduction History Generalization Forecasting Theory Framework Forecasting Summary Era Analysis Baseline Forecasting Critical Thinking Baseline Analysis Creativity Alternative Futures Forecasting Scenario Kernels Conclusion Resources PART INFLUENCING Leadership Introduction History Era Traits Era 2: Situation Era 3: Effectiveness Era 4: Contingency Era 5: Shared Leadership Era 6: Managers and Leaders Generalization Leadership Distinctions Approach Leading People into New Territory Exploring Boundaries of the Possible Committing to Goals They Do Not Know How to Achieve Building Bridges When They Only Know One Side of the River Motivating People to Do What They Don't Want to Do Conclusion Resources Visioning Introduction History Generalization Attributes of a Vision Vision Statements Approach Values Background Conclusion Resources Planning Introduction History Generalization Approach Planning to Plan Understanding the Future Setting the Direction Developing the Plan Conclusion Resources Change Management Introduction History Generalization Establish a Sense of Urgency Form a Powerful Guiding Coalition . . . Is Rarely Chosen; it is Almost Always Forced by External Circumstances . . . Always Creates Disagreements About Timing and Scope . . . Is Always Uneven, Disorganized, Messy, Chaotic . . . Always Politicizes Communication . . . Always Changes the Relative Position of Groups . . . Always Occurs One Person at a Time . . . Is Never Fully Adopted by Force Approach Have a Good Reason Be Honest about the Process Articulate a Vision Commit to Achieve the Vision Communicate! Generate Trust Conclusion Resources Appendices Appendix 1: Framework Forecasting Specification Appendix 2: World Futures Appendix 2: World Futures Appendix 3: Scanning Form and Explanation Bibliography

328 pages, Paperback

First published June 26, 2012