Beyond the Hotline: Controlling a Nuclear Crisis

by William Ury

From the back Perhaps the most like path to a nuclear war today is through a crisis that escalates out of control because of miscalculation, miscommunication, or accident. With troublespots all over the world, nuclear proliferation, and the danger of nuclear terrorism, the possible scenarios for an unintended war are gradually multiplying. Effective means of crisis control are needed more than ever. An Analysis of past U.S.-Soviet crisis behavior beginning with the Cuban Missile Crisis highlights the critical factors which can skew even the most rational decision-making under pressure and suggests measures which each side can take in advance - separately or jointly - to prevent or control a crisis. Four key attribute of a crisis make it especially little time to decide, high stakes, high certainty, and few usable options. These factors press decision-makers to take hasty, often escalatory, action to protect vital interests. Through action and reaction, miscalculation and miscommunication, a runaway crisis and war may result.

87 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 1984

About the author

William Ury is an American author, academic, anthropologist, and negotiation expert. He co-founded the Harvard Program on Negotiation. Additionally, he helped found the International Negotiation Network with former President Jimmy Carter. Ury is the co-author of Getting to Yes with Roger Fisher, which set out the method of principled negotiation and established the idea of the best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA) within negotiation theory.