The Third Wave

by Alvin Toffler

From the author of Future Shock, a striking way out of today’s despair . . . a bracing, optimistic look at our new potentials.

The Third Wave  makes startling sense of the violent changes now battering our world. Its sweeping synthesis casts fresh light on our new forms of marriage and family, on today's dramatic changes in business and economics. It explains the role of cults, the new definitions of work, play, love, and success. It points toward new forms of twenty-first-century democracy.

Praise for The Third Wave
 
“Magnificent . . . an astonishing array of information.” — The Washington Post
 
“Imperishably fresh.” — Business Week
 
“Will mesmerize readers, and rightly so.” — Vogue

“Alvin Toffler . . . has written another blockbuster . . . a powerful book.” — The Guardian
 
“Fresh ideas, clearly explained. . . . Toffler has proven again that he is a master.” —United Press International
 
“Toffler has imagination and an ability to think of various future possibilities by transcending prevailing values, assumptions and myths.” —Associated Press
 
“Once you have walked into his version of the future, you may decide never again to whitewash some of the built-in frailties of the real present.” — Financial Post
 
“Rich, stimulating and basically optimistic . . . will unquestionably aid many to a greater understanding of [today’s] puzzling social changes.” — The Globe & Mail
 
“A detailed breathtakingly bold projection of the social changes required if we are to survive. . . . Toffler’s vision of a democratic, self-sustaining utopia is a brave alternative to recent grim warnings.” — Cosmopolitan

Genres: Nonfiction, History, Sociology, Philosophy, Economics, Politics, Science

560 pages, Mass Market Paperback

First published January 1, 1980

About the author

Alvin Eugene Toffler was an American writer, futurist, and businessman known for his works discussing modern technologies, including the digital revolution and the communication revolution, with emphasis on their effects on cultures worldwide. He is regarded as one of the world's outstanding futurists.
Toffler was an associate editor of Fortune magazine. In his early works he focused on technology and its impact, which he termed "information overload". In 1970, his first major book about the future, Future Shock, became a worldwide best-seller and has sold over 6 million copies.
He and his wife Heidi Toffler (1929–2019), who collaborated with him for most of his writings, moved on to examining the reaction to changes in society with another best-selling book, The Third Wave, in 1980. In it, he foresaw such technological advances as cloning, personal computers, the Internet, cable television and mobile communication. His later focus, via their other best-seller, Powershift, (1990), was on the increasing power of 21st-century military hardware and the proliferation of new technologies.
He founded Toffler Associates, a management consulting company, and was a visiting scholar at the Russell Sage Foundation, visiting professor at Cornell University, faculty member of the New School for Social Research, a White House correspondent, and a business consultant. Toffler's ideas and writings were a significant influence on the thinking of business and government leaders worldwide, including China's Zhao Ziyang, and AOL founder Steve Case.

Reviews

[Mohammad Hrabal · Rating 4 out of 5]

هر چند کتاب قدیمی است (۱۹۸۰) ولی خواندن آن ارزشمند است. از طرفی چون چند دهه از آن گذشته است می‌توان پیش بینی‌های تافلر را ارزیابی کرد که چقدر به حقیقت پیوسته و چه مقدار نه. نوع نگاه او به مسائل، تجزیه و تحلیل‌ها و تفسیرهای او و ... هنوز کتاب را جذاب و خواندنی نگاه داشته است.
**********************************************************************
لزومی ندارد که انسان مارکسیست باشد تا با مانیفست کمونیست در ادعانامه‌ی مشهورش علیه جامعه‌ی جدید هم‌ عقیده باشد در آنجا که می‌گوید «دیگر میان انسان‌ها به جز منافع شخصی عریان و پرداخت «نقدی» عاری از هر گونه احساس و عاطفه، رابطه‌ای باقی نمانده‌است.» روابط شخصی، پیوندهای خانوادگی، عشق، دوستی، علقه‌های همسایگی و اجتماعی همگی در هجوم بی‌رحمانه‌ی منافع شخصی تجاری رنگ باخته‌اند یا به تباهی کشیده شده‌اند. صفحه ۵۷ کتاب
کارگران و مدیران ژاپنی در شرکت ماتسوشیتا الکتریک هر روز دسته‌ جمعی سرود زیر را می‌خواندند:
… تا آخرین نفس در راه ترقی تولید می‌کوشیم
کالاهایمان را به مردم دنیا عرضه می داریم
بی‌وقفه و دائم
همچون آبی که از فواره روان است
رشد کن، صنعت، رشد کن، رشد کن، رشد کن!
هماهنگی و خلوص!
این است شعار ما در برق ماتسوشیتا!. صفحه ۷۶ کتاب
در سال‌های اخیر اتحاد شوروی به گینه (که قوای خود را در آن‌جا نگه‌ داشته بود) برای هر تن هیدروکسید آلومینیوم فقط شش دلار می‌پرداخت، در حالیکه آمریکا ۲۳ دلار می‌داد. هندوستان اعتراض کرده‌ است که روس‌ها برای واردات خود ۳۰ درصد بیشتر مطالبه کرده‌اند و برای صادرات هند ۳۰ درصد کم‌تر پرداخته‌اند. ایران و افغانستان گاز طبیعی خود را به قیمتی «زیر قیمت معمول» در اختیار شوروی قرار داده‌اند. بنابراین اتحاد شوروی هم نظیر رقبای سرمایه‌داری‌اش به قیمت زیان رساندن به کشورهای واپس مانده، خود سود بسیاری برده است. صفحه ۱۳۲ کتاب
هیچ تمدنی در گذشته ابزاری چنین ویرانگر خلق نکرده بود که نه‌ تنها یک شهر بلکه یک کره را بتواند بدین وسعت به ویرانی کشد و سابقه نداشته که اقیانوس‌ها به‌ خاطر حرص و آز بشر یا از روی سهل‌انگاری، طوری آلوده شود که همه‌ی موجودات زنده یک شبه از بین بروند. هیچ‌گاه به‌ خاطر معادن، سطح زمین اینطور وحشیانه زخم برنداشته بود. هیچ‌گاه افشانه‌های گیسو تا بدین حد جو را از گاز اوزون تهی نکرده بود و افزایش حرارت یا به‌ اصطلاح «آلودگی‌های حرارتی» آب‌ و هوای کره‌ی زمین را اینقدر تهدید نکرده بود. صفحات ۱۶۶-۱۶۷ کتاب
واقعیت وحشتناک این است که صنعت‌گرایی مبتنی بر مدل موج دوم بیش‌ از آنکه موفق باشد شکست‌ خورده است. ایران به‌ تنهایی فاجعه‌ آمیزترین مثال این قضیه است. در اواخر ۱۹۷۵، شاهی اقتدار طلب با تفاخر می‌گوید که ایران را با اتخاذ خط‌ مشی موج دوم در ردیف پیشرفته‌ترین کشورهای صنعتی خاورمیانه قرار خواهد داد. نیوزویک گزارش می‌دهد: «مجریان پروژه‌های سازندگی شاه سخت کوشیدند تا مجموعه‌ی با عظمتی از کارخانه و سد و راه‌آهن و شاهراه و دیگر ساز و کارهای لازم برای راه اندازی یک انقلاب صنعتی ایجاد کنند.» تا ژوئن ۱۹۷۸ نیز بانکداران بین‌المللی هنوز سعی داشتند که به شرکت کشتی‌ سازی خلیج‌ فارس، شرکت نساجی مازندران، توانیر و شرکت برق منطقه‌ای، و مجتمع ذوب آهن اصفهان و شرکت آلومینیوم ایران و دیگر شرکت‌ها، میلیاردها دلار وام با بهره‌ای ناچیز بدهند. در همان‌ حال که این سازندگی قرار بود ایران را به یک کشور «مدرن» تبدیل کند، فساد بر تهران حکمفرما بود. مصرف نمایشی، تضاد بین دارا و نادار را تشدید می‌کرد. نان امریکایی‌ها البته نه منحصراً امریکایی‌ها بلکه عمدتاً امریکایی‌ها - در روغن بود. (به یک مدیر آلمانی در تهران، سه برابر میزانی که در آلمان می‌گرفت حقوق می‌دادند، اما کارمندان و کارگران زیر دست وی، یک دهم میزان دستمزد همتایان خود را در آلمان دریافت می‌کردند.) طبقه‌ متوسط شهری در جزیره‌ای کوچک و منزوی در میان دریایی از فقر و بدبختی زندگی می‌کرد. غیر از نفت، به‌ طور کامل دو سوم کل کالاهای تولید شده به بازار تهران عرضه می‌شد و توسط یک دهم کل جمعیت به مصرف می‌رسید. در نواحی روستایی که درآمد به‌ سختی به حد یک پنجم درآمد شهری می‌رسید، توده‌های روستایی به زندگی تحت فشار و آماده‌ی عصیان ادامه می‌دادند. میلیونرها و ژنرال‌ها و تکنوکرات‌های دولتی تعلیم یافته‌ی غرب که حکومت تهران را اداره می‌کردند، سرگرم اجرای خط‌مشی موج دوم بودند. آنان توسعه را صرفاً یک فرایند اقتصادی می‌دانستند. مذهب و فرهنگ و زندگی خانوادگی و نقش زن و مرد در نظر آنان چندان مهم نبود، آنچه اهمیت داشت این بود که وضع اقتصادی رو به‌ راه باشد. اصالت فرهنگی چندان معنایی نداشت. زیرا، آنان که در جاده‌ی صنعتی شدن پر شتاب در حرکت بودند، جهانی را می‌دیدند که نه در جهت تنوع یافتن بلکه به‌ سرعت رو به همسان‌ سازی گام بر می‌دارد. مخالفت با عقاید غربی در کابینه‌ای که ۹۰ درصد اعضای آن از دانشگاه‌های هاروارد و برکلی یا دانشگاه‌های اروپایی فارغ‌ التحصیل شده بودند، خیلی راحت یک گرایش «عقب‌مانده» و «ارتجاعی» به حساب می‌آمد... سقوط رژیم شاه در ایران مناظره‌های گسترده‌ای را در پایتخت‌های دیگر از مانیل تا مکزیکوسیتی بر انگیخت. یکی از پرسش‌هایی که به کرات مطرح می‌شد، در مورد سرعت تحول بود. آیا این سرعت در ایران بیش‌ از حد شتاب‌آلود بود؟ آیا ایرانیان از شوک آینده به ستوه آمده بودند؟ حتی با تکیه بر درآمدهای نفتی، آیا دولت‌ها قادرند به‌ سرعت طبقه‌ی متوسطی آنقدر گسترده به وجود آورند که جلوی جنبش انقلابی را بگیرد؟ اما انقلاب ایران و جایگزین شدن حکومت اسلامی به‌ جای رژیم شاه، ما را وا می‌دارد که اصول اساسی خط‌مشی موج دوم را مورد تردید قرار دهیم. آیا صنعتی شدن به طریق مرسوم تنها راه به سوی پیشرفت است؟ و در زمانی‌که خود تمدن صنعتی به حال سکرات افتاده، آیا تقلید از این تمدن به جاست؟ صفحات ۴۵۶-۴۵۸ کتاب
در آموزش و پرورشی باید به مسائل عادی روزمره که فراموش شده‌اند توجه کرد. در مدرسه ساعات زیادی را به تدریس دروسی مثلاً در زمینه شکل حکومت یا ساختمان آمیب صرف می‌کنند. اما چه مقدار وقت خود را به تدریس مسائلی چون ساختار زندگی روزمره اختصاص می‌دهیم؟ برای مثال، تنظیم برنامه تفریحی، چگونگی خرج کردن پول، معرفی مؤسسات و جاهایی که بچه‌ها در مواقع گرفتاری باید مراجعه کنند. صفحه ۵۲۱ کتاب
بدون فشار عظیم توده‌ها نباید از رهبران سیاسی امروز - رؤسای جمهور و سیاست‌مداران و سناتورها و اعضای کمیته مرکزی احزاب - انتظار داشت که نهادهایی را نفی کنند که هر چند کهنه و منسوخ شده‌اند، ولی ای به آنها حیثیت و پول و قدرت کاذب (و نه واقعی) می‌بخشند. … بنابراین، مسئولیت ایجاد تحول با ماست. باید از خود آغاز کنیم. باید یاد بگیریم که چشمانمان را به روی واقعیات اعجاب‌انگیز و عمیق و تازه نبندیم. این به‌ معنای مرعوب نشدن در برابر اندیشه کش‌هایی است که عجولانه هر فکر تازه‌ای را با این خیال که غیر عملی است سرکوب می‌کنند. و از هر آنچه هست، به‌ دلیل عملی بودن (حال هر قدر بی‌معنی و ستمگرانه و بی‌فایده باشد) دفاع می‌کنند. و این به‌ معنای مبارزه برای آزادی بیان است یعنی اینکه مردم حق داشته باشند حرف خود را بزنند صرف‌نظر از این‌که درست یا نادرست باشد. صفحه ۶۱۰ کتاب
​۱۴۰۳/۰۶/۱۰

[Nitin · Rating 4 out of 5]

The first wave (Agrarian Society) lasted for thousands of years; the second wave (Industrial society) lasted for close to 300 years and now the third wave("information society")- started in 1960s in U.S.- has more or less spread across the whole globe. Even though the book is written in 1980s, most part of it is still valid today. What i really liked about it is how the author tries to interconnect seemingly unrelated events in different fields like tech, sociology, politics, environment & economics with linkages of sound & convincing arguments.

One may find initial few parts (of first & second wave societies) a little bit boring but as one gets to the third wave part, he/she will start relating it to the events occurred or occurring in his/her life time.
I suggest, read this book not mere for its content but also for the style & structure.The book describes the path along which small changes occurring in diverse fields-each inspired by its own characteristic need- leads to the rise of civilization which itself shapes the future of many human generations.

[کیه!؟]

بسم الله...

حرفهای بزرگتر از دهانم!

فکر کنید یک دختر مدرسه ای 16 ساله باشید و اسم کتاب را در پاورقی کتاب جامعه شناسی تان خوانده باشید و روزهای کنکور، وسط خواندن کتاب های درسی، "موج سوم" تافلر را از کتابخانه امانت بگیرید و بخوانید!ا

اعتراف می کنم هیچ نمی فهمیدم و دنبال حرف های گنده تر از دهانم بودم! اما جسارت آن دختر 16 ساله را دوست داشتم :)ا

باید دوباره بخوانمش.

21/11/99

[Mohammad · Rating 5 out of 5]

برخی افراد به قانون اساسی با احترامی تقدس آمیز نگاه می کنند و آن را حاوی ده فرمان می پندارند که آنقدر مقدس است که نباید بدان دست زد. آنان به
مردان اعصار گذشته عقلی بالاتر از عقل بشری نسبت می دهند و تصور می کنند که آنچه آنان انجام داده اند احتیاج به هیچگونه تغییر یا اصلاحی ندارد... من مطمئنا طرفدار ایجاد تغییرات مکرر و آزمایش نشده در قوانین حقوقی و قانون اساسی نیستم... اما می دانم که قوانین و نهادها باید دست در دست یکدیگر با پیشرفت ذهن بشری همگام شوند... همانطور که اکتشافات جدید انجام می شود و حقایق تازه آشکار می گردد و حالات و افکار و عقاید نیز همگام با شرایط تغییر می یابند، نهادها نیز باید پیشرفت کنند

[ArEzO.... Es · Rating 5 out of 5]

موج سوم نوشته الوين تافلر هميشه داراي بالاترين چاپ بوده است
بين كتابهاي مديريت صنعتي بهترين رتبه كتاب را داراست
نويسنده اش با شوك آينده شهرت يافت و موج سوم هم ثابت كرد كه او مديري بي همتاست و مي تواند باشد
م��ج سوم بر اين مفهوم بنا شده است كه تاريخ بشر دو انقلاب را پشت سر گذاشته است انقلاب كشاورزي و انقلاب صنعتي و اكنون در آستانه سومين آن يعني انقلاب الكترونيك است وبحران جهان كنوني نا شي از اين انتقال پر تنش است
در فصل هفدهم خانواده هاي آينده را به خوبي ترسيم كرده است
و در فصل بيست و سوم بحث جالب گاندي با ماهواره را نوشته است
و در انتها
سرنوشتي كه بايد ساخت

[Soroosh Soltani]

خیلی عجیبه!اونم دوتا چیز خیلی عجیبه!اول اینکه چطور ممکنه کتاب شوک اینده ی اروین تافلر توی بوکریدز نباشه؟
دوم اینکه چطور یه خبر نگار انقدر نابغست!ما همیشه فک میکنیم خبرنگارا کسایی ان که فقط حرف دیگه رو تکرار میکنن ولی واقعا اینجور نیست!اینکه تافلر انقدر خوب همه چیو پیشبینی کرده و اتفاق افتاده اینکه قبل از فروریختن شوروی یه کتاب داد و دلایل فرو ریختن شوروی رو توضیح داد در نوع خودش فوق العادست!
این کتابو یه دکتر اقتصاد بهم داد و بهم گفت قبل از پزشکی باید اینارو بدونی و بفهمی دورت چه خبره!
نمیشد شروعو بذارم بعد تموم کردن این کتابا

[Beauregard Bottomley · Rating 2 out of 5]

Extreme centrist never see color or diversity. Toffler is a privileged extreme centrist living with rose colored glasses (‘la vie en rose’) hypothesizing a third wave while visualizing the future while always staying within the confines of his second wave, the industrial wave, motifs dominated by his privileged identity.

Fundamental change was happening the day this book came out in 1980 but the author doesn’t see beyond his own ‘industrialeality’, that is, the ‘industrial reality’, a clever neologism the author ironically makes up since the author himself doesn’t realize the trap he remains in by describing his third wave with second wave paradigms.

The author doesn’t really provide a succinct label for what his ‘third wave’ should be called. He’ll say it started in 1955 and alludes to it as the ‘age of syntheses’ and at the most the reader gets a fuzzy feeling it can be labeled as a ‘post industrial’ wave. He gives characteristics to what he thinks the fundamental change will bring but as with all movements implicitly labeled ‘post’ one never knows what it is in its own terms one only knows what it is not. (People will say ‘post modernist’, ‘post secular’, and so on, they do that because it makes them feel smart, but I’m always in search for what it is not what it is not, and I should be clear, Toffler doesn’t use the term ‘post-industrial’ within this book, but Wiki tells me he does outside of the book).

I think if I had not started my adult life in 1980 the year this book was published, I would not be as critical of this book as I am. It’s so clear to me that it was books like this that mislead us and distracted us from what was going on in the world (particularly America). There was fundamental change going on then and it is effecting what is going on today.

The author really sees the world from a privileged perspective. He makes a point that he worked in the steel mills in order to observe workers in their natural habitat and better understand them. More power to him, but I did time in the steel mills in order to survive. There will always be a difference between observing and surviving. I’m reminded of a book I recently read and particularly hate ‘Lean In’ by Sandberg, her experiences never got at the fact that for most of us, survival is more important to us then if Mark Zuckerberg should be our mentor or should it be Larry Summers.

Toffler sees truths from his privileged position. Take his statement: ‘people want community, structure and meaning’. Those are the standards Toffler uses to heuristically describe his third wave world and what should be. I accept that I was thrown in to a world not of my own making and my choices are necessitated by time and chance and meaning is a wonderful thing to have, but survival is more important and community takes as well as gives and structure forces conformity to the stifling norms of the community. Yes, the author wants a change from one set of stifling norms foisted upon us by the community, but nevertheless, he wants conformity through a regression to the mean of the community. Toffler in this book is essentially supporting the dumbest statement ever made ‘I don’t see color (or diversity, or sexual identity), since I am color blind’. That statement can only be made by the privileged conformist enabler whose community is their self identified community which provides structure for creating their meaning which very well might be exclusionary to me. This book essentially fundamentally supports that statement on color blindness. This book is a both sides are to blame extreme centrist’s wet dream.

He ultimately falls in to the identity trap where the only real identity is the identity of the great melting pot in the sky and any identity that doesn’t fit that social imprint then it must be socially aberrant. For a perfect example of a vile defense of that kind of thought see ‘Identity’ by Fukuyama or another just as tone deaf tome ‘Enlightenment Now’ by Pinker.

Even when this book is considered in the standards of 1980s realities, the author really excessively dismisses people of color, gays, women, or identity beyond the author’s own mythical privileged class (try to live life where you don’t have the luxury of observing steel workers and where you have to be a steel worker and carry the identity you were given at birth when it does not necessarily conform to the norms of the community, there is a difference between the realities of the two groups. One reeks of privilege and privileges. One does not). The world was changing and at most the author was accepting the reality of what was happening, but never really saw the depth of the revaluation of all values that was happening as he was writing his book or the cataclysmic tsunamis that were soon to arrive.

The author does make some predictions of the future. There is a tidal wave happening at the time he wrote the book but he only gets it right about half the time. He tells us how the nuclear family is changing, women are being empowered and so on (while ignoring or dismissing people of color), but all those things were obvious in 1980. He gets it wrong on gay rights and treating them as humans, and he is really oblique on people of color and their identity and thinks religion will be the refuge for the disruptions to come (using my 2019 hindsight, he is definitely wrong. The fastest growing religion is ‘none of the above’). The nation state didn’t dissolve, nor did the banks get more local or more in touch, newspapers did not become dominated by local papers and so on, he gets all that wrong and that is what his real major futuristic theme under the umbrella of the ‘age of syntheses’ is trying to get at.

There’s a book written in 1981 right after this book was originally published. It was called ‘Critique of the Everyday Life, Volume III’, by Levebvre. It’s a Marxist look at the world, but he actually did a better job of understanding what was going on in the world in 1980 and what it meant for the future than this book did. Levebvre was able to connect the dots and saw beyond the paradigm of the moment and gives a better feel for what was going to happen and realizes that there are multiple valid other identities for each person in the everyday life and that data and computers were going to change everything including how we should think about the world. (Though in the end Levebvre is not happy about what he thinks will happen, while Toffler tends to welcome the future).

[محمد شفیعی · Rating 4 out of 5]

کتاب برای ۱۹۸۰ هستش پس باید درست خوندش، این کتاب یه سری پیش بینی ها میکنه در مورد آینده ی دنیا، یعنی امروز ما، بعضی محقق شده و بعضی به بیراهه رفته، ولی میشه شرایط اجتماعی و سیاسی رو که منجر به محقق شدن و نشدن اینها شده رو درک کرد
همچنین راهکارهایی برای مسائلی میده که تا حالا یا حل شدن یا گره کورتری خوردن، همین میتونه با توجه به گذشت زمان و تجربه ی ما چیزهای زیادی رو نشونمون میده
فکر کنید، دنیا رو دارید زمانی تجربه میکنید که بلوک شرق و غربی وجود داره و رقابتهایی تو دنیا هست که از جنس امروز نیست، آمریکا تازه جنبش های اجتماعی رو پشت سر گذاشته، اعراب تازه تحریم نفتی رو اجرا کردم و و و، این کتاب تو این فضا نوشته شده، و فارغ از محتواش خیلی میتونه مدل فکر کردن جدیدی رو یاد بده

[Mahsa · Rating 4 out of 5]

کتاب خیلی خوبیه. با خوندنش فکر میکنم قسمت های هیجان انگیز زندگی هنوز مونده. با این سرعت تغییرات ببینیم چی قراره سر کشورها و کلا دنیا میاد. حجم کتاب بالاست اما فوق العاده مطالب سیاسی فرهنگی اجتماعی و مثالهایی از تاریخ داره که حتما ارزش خوندن داره

[Ali Niazi · Rating 5 out of 5]

کتاب موج سوم یکی از بهترین کتاب هایی است در این زمینه مطالعه کردم، الوین تافلر واقعا مباحث اجتماعی، اقتصادی و ... در این کتاب خیلی جذاب بحث کرده است

[Nicole · Rating 3 out of 5]

Although it was published in 1980 before home computers, e-mail, and the internet, Mr. Toffler helps make sense of the transitions we faced moving from the First Wave (Agricultural Age) to the Second Wave (Industrial Age) and now as we move into the Third Wave (Information Age). He covers topics as broad as technology, politics and gender roles and how each of these is impacted by the Third Wave.

There are entire chapters that I disagree with, such as reasons given for the disintegration of the nuclear family, but it is otherwise interesting and insightful, for a book written almost 30 years ago.

[Hriday · Rating 5 out of 5]

It took me 13 years to read this book. Was worth it. Toffler is an amazing synthesiser who brings together different ideas from disciples to create a syncretic whole! Written in 1980, the book misses out on the biggest of all third wave technologies- The Internet. Yet, the book is amazingly perceptive, insightful and far sighted. A veritable Magnum Opus!

[Ravindra Dewan]

I read this book in 1983 just by accident and it is THE greatest book that I have ever read. How close was Toffler in understanding history in such a grand sweep.

[Jeffrey · Rating 4 out of 5]

Again, a book written some time ago (24 years), so how does it stand up?

In one section, Toffler speaks of how the customer "will become so integrated into the production process that we find it . . . difficult to tell . . . who is the producer." So many Internet niche marketers (today’s most popular and fastest growing business model) would read this and agree. It's fascinating to see such precision in understanding a device some 20 years ago that itself is only 10 years old. Today’s customer IS the product—where customers are surveyed and THEN the product is produced.

Key insights:

(1) Companies needing to take on full responsibility for the consequences of their actions on society and the environment;

(2) Companies becoming much more important social institutions of change;

(3) Information moving to the center of major decisions;

(4) Government spreading its influence so that business and politics become inextricably entwined; and

(5) Institutional ethics coming to more closely reflect social ethics.

Once again, with the proliferation of companies taking their selling to the people through "ethically enhanced" business models, or the more modern version of multi-level marketing companies, it is fascinating to see how Toffler's predictions have come to light. Information is king today, and due to the Internet and it's almost instant and far reaching access to the public, it is difficult if not impossible to perform poorly without thousands if not millions soon being aware of a companies gross mistreatment of customers. So we can see how right on Toffler is.

If you haven't read Toffler, then it's required reading for those who aren't aware of trends, and as this world moves toward light speed changes, it is essential if not vital reading for all.

[Oana Popescu · Rating 5 out of 5]

2019, still a great read!
Reading this book should be mandatory for students, researchers, anyone interested in history. The knowledge it imparts is impressive, in keeping multidimensional perspectives on well, almost everything. It is for every person to read, students, teachers, sales people, IT people, doctors and so on.
The amount of research and information it presents is awe-inspiring, as far as technology is concerned, as well as family life, communications, politics. Topics I've seldom discussed in school, like standardisation and specialization, synchronisation, maximisation, centralization are re-assessed and put into perspective. On top of it all, he mentions the impact of electronics and computers, the space industry and more or less predictable shifts that take/took place in our societies.

Toffler got many of them right and mentioned the upside and downside of the age of imagination. As a young adult it helps me better evaluate generation gaps and challenges.

[TarasProkopyuk · Rating 4 out of 5]

Несмотря на то что книга довольно старая (первое издание 1981 г.), тем не менее в ней автором замечены множество тенденций и признаков эволюционных изменений человечества.

Да, многие моменты, замеченные автором сейчас не совсем корректны, некоторые не оправдали себя в предсказаниях Тоффлера, с некоторыми не согласен и готов много спорить, но что я должен признать, так это то что с подавляющим большинством аргументов я очень таки согласен.

Если вам интересно знать каким день будет завтра и тенденции изменения мира не забудьте подготовиться к ним заранее прочитав данную книгу.

[Morteza Samadian · Rating 5 out of 5]

از نگاه تافلر سه موج به ساحل زندگی بشر برخورد کرده. هر موج بر سر موج قبلی کوبیده میشه و همه پارادایم ها و اصول قبلی رو به هم میریزه
کتاب ارزشمندیه و خوندنش یه باید

[مِستر کثافت درونگرا · Rating 3 out of 5]

بیشتر کتابی اکادمیک هست ولی برای عموم مردم هم جالبه و حتما بخونید

[Δx Δp ≥ ½ ħ · Rating 3 out of 5]

buku yg sangat mengejutkan... dibuat pada tahun 1980-an jelas, belum datang masanya email, komputer, internet, handphone, ipod, dan ledakan penemuan lainnya yang telah mengubah wajah peradaban. tapi, bak seorang cenayang (Mama Lorentz kalah telak!!) Alvin Toffler, dg jeniusnya meramalkan bagaimana rupa peradaban manusia di masa depan (baca : coz buku ini meramalkan masa depannya puluhan tahun kedepan sesudah buku ini dibuat, artinya masa sekarang)

Well, mirip-mirip bukunya Naisbitt ato Hutingtonton ato Fukuyama lah (dan sederet para cenayang 'ilmiah' lainnya), buku ini tak jauh-jauh dari pembahasan mengenai kemungkinan gejolak ekonomi, politik, sosila, budaya, agama, dan tentu saja, terorisme. tak hanya menakut-nakuti doang, buku ini juga membahas berbagai 'harapan' di masa depan..

well, meski jadul bgt, tp beberapa ide, gagasan, dan isi dari buku ini masih relevan. pokoknya Naisbitt banget lah...

Mambaca buku seperti ini membuat kita berpikir,
Dunia macam apa yang akan kita wariskan pada anak cucu kita?

[Mr. J · Rating 5 out of 5]

The book shines in two main aspects .

1. It presents an extremely coherent and simple explanation to every relevant aspect in today's societies , from economics to politics and from arts to technology. It helps the reader to understand why things are the way they are.

2. It also relies heavily on a future oriented language , which would have been a perfect recipe for anachronism and falsity, but surprisingly enough , many of the book's predictions actually end up happening , with many others that are whether happening right now or are about to become true (like the genetic industry or the electronic environment)
Depending on what you already believe or know , you may end up agreeing or not and to a certain degree in any direction to many of the book's ideas and implications. Regardless of that I thoroughly recommend this book to anyone, at the very least it will give you a different perspective on things .

[Ryan Holiday · Rating 3 out of 5]

In the first wave, power came from violence or force. In the second, the Industrial Revolution, power came from wealth. Today, it comes from knowledge. The battle for the future is going to be over information. Unfortunately, the book takes 500 pages to say that.

Toffler's other books are stronger and if short on time, can be read in exchange for The Third Wave. However Alvin does write a particularly touching foreword about his wife who has been his long time writing partner.

[Rouhollah Abdolvahab · Rating 4 out of 5]

کتابی استراتژیک و بسیار جالب برای افراد علاقه مند به نگاه عمیق. دید خیلی خوبی برای نگاه به مسائل جامعه به آدم میده. هرچند کتاب قدیمیه ولی مطالبش آنقدر جان دار هست که تازه به نظر میاد.
البته دید غلطی نسبت به مذهب دارد. ولی سعی می کند کاملا منصفانه وقایع را توصیف کند.
در کل جامع نگر و بسیار قابل استفاده است.

[Gamal soliman · Rating 3 out of 5]

هنا تنبأ توفلر بزوال الليبراليه كما زالت الشيوعيه لانهما من نتاج العصر الصناعى الذى حل محله عصر ما بعد الصناعى

[khashayar XerXes · Rating 5 out of 5]

1970...future shock
smthing is gonna change,it will change in the fastest way it could!
here he discuss the effect that the rate may cause,& leave
the tehem of the "change" 4 his next book to discuss!

1980...third wave
he define us the chaneg we r facing or going to face in future decades in details

1990...power shift
this change "third wave" will affect the basics of distribution of the meaning of the "power" in society!

[Brad Acker · Rating 5 out of 5]

3 salient waves of major change have greatly transformed civilization: (1) farming (began with invention of agriculture) , (2) factories (the industrial revolution), (3) our electronic information age (characterized by each individual using a personal computer to extend creativity and enhance happiness). As we move from one major wave to another, upheaval can occur.

[Sashko Valyus · Rating 4 out of 5]

Елвін Тоффлер в 1980 році описав як буде жити інформаційне суспульство. Можна судити що він в бішості вгадав по всім статтям. І інтернет-форуми, і 3D-друк, і розвиток екологічних засобів добування енергії, і доступність інформації для усіх і всюди. В принципі те в майбутнє в якому ми живемо. Тільки це майбутнє розповсюджене нерівномірно.

[Andre · Rating 4 out of 5]

I've never read a book as many times as I've read this one. Alvin Toffler has done a good job in predicting the trends over the last 30 years.

I'm exciting to see the breakthroughs that they predicted in the genetics industry in the coming years.

[Lujain · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great book for near future Especially in developing countries

[M.Reza · Rating 5 out of 5]

فکر می کنم هر ایرانی (بویژه جوانان) باید این کتاب را بخواند ویژگی مهم این کتاب این است که با وجود آکادمیک بودن اما زبان بسیار ساده و روانی دارد به نحویکه مطالعه آن را بسیار ساده و دلنشین می کند

[Paul Spence · Rating 4 out of 5]

Peering into the future is the best way of understanding the past and the present. But what is even more revealing than a view of the future is to go back and look at somebody’s attempt to reveal the future some years ago. What did they get right and what did they get wrong? And what does that tell us about the unfolding nature of reality? This week I look at one of the best ever attempts at futurology — Alvin Toffler’s seminal 1980 book, The Third Wave.

His thesis is easily stated. There have been three types of civilisation since the dawn of history. Toffler uses the metaphor of “waves” to describe how each new civilisation clashes with and begins to supplant the previous one.

The First Wave

The first wave was agricultural society, which was fundamentally the same throughout the world and through the vast majority of history:

“From China and India to Benin and Mexico, in Greece and Rome, civilisations rose and fell ... However, beneath their differences lay fundamental similarities. In all of them, land was the basis of the economy, life, culture, family structure, and politics. In all of them, life was organised around the village. In all of them, a simple division of labour prevailed and a few clearly defined castes and classes arose: a nobility, a priesthood, warriors, helots, slaves or serfs. In all of them, power was rigidly authoritarian.”

“Until 1650-1750, therefore, we can speak of a First Wave world. Despite ... hints of the industrial future, agricultural civilisation dominated the planet and seemed destined to do so for ever.”

The Second Wave

But then the second wave — the industrial revolution — transformed the most advanced parts of society. Industrialism brought more powerful technologies, bigger cities, faster transport, and mass education. There were three basic second wave institutions — the nuclear family, the factory-style school, and the corporation. In 1901 United States Steel was the world’s first billion dollar corporation, and “by 1919 there were half a dozen such behemoths”.

Second wave civilisation was characterised by six principles that ran through every aspect of daily life:

• Standardisation

• Specialisation

• Synchronisation — everything had to be done at the same time (workers had to arrive at factories
at precisely the same time, as did travellers on a train)

• Maximisation — “a kind of Texan infatuation with bigness and growth”

• Concentration — dependence on highly concentrated deposits of fossil fuel, concentration of
capital and a few dominant companies in each industry, concentration in big cities

• Centralisation — power centralised in a few institutions, especially the nation state and its
bureaucracy

Toffler actually highlighted another trend, though curiously not adding it as a seventh theme — that of acceleration. “The pace of first wave life was slow. Communications were so primitive ...” Under the first wave, channels of communication were reserved for the rich and powerful. “The second wave smashed this monopoly ... second wave technology required ‘mass-ive’ movements of information.”

Importantly, Toffler saw industrial society as basically the same, whether capitalist or communist. “The obsessive concern with money, goods, and things,” he wrote, “is a reflection not of capitalism or socialism, but of industrialism.”

So what was Toffler’s third wave?

“The third wave,” he said, “is, at one and the same time, highly technological and anti-industrial ... the emergent civilisation carries us beyond standardisation, synchronisation, and centralisation, beyond the concentration of energy, money, and power.” The third wave supplanted industrialism.

One of the little-noticed curiosities of Toffler’s book is that he never supplies a name or a definition of the third wave — it has to be picked up from hints. But the thrust is basically technological change. “From the mid-1950s,” he correctly observed, old-fashioned and electro-mechanical industries such as textiles or iron and steel, “began to be transferred to developing countries, where labor was cheaper.” By contrast, the third wave was manifest in the growth of four new industries:

• Electronics and computers

• The space industry

•“Into the depths” — mining of the oceans for food and minerals

•“the gene industry” — what we now call biotechnology.

He also says that “information has become the world’s fastest growing and most important industry”, one that cuts across his four other industries.

He also said that “the essence of second wave manufacture was the long ‘run’ of millions of identical, standardised products. By contrast, the essence of third wave manufacture is the short run of partially customised products.”

He claimed that the new economy required decentralisation. “Only disaggregated, increasingly decentralised economic management can work in the new economy, for it, too, is becoming progressively decentralised at the very moment it seems global and uniform ... All these anti-centralist tendencies — in politics, in corporate and government organisations, and in the economy itself (reinforced by parallel developments in the media, the distribution of computer power, energy systems, and in many other fields) — are creating a wholly new society.”

In other words, what others have called the “post-industrial” society, or in my own phrases “the personalised economy”, “the age of creative individuals”, or “the age of mass imagination”.

What did Toffler Get Right?

He was not the first to draw attention to the trend to post-industrial society, but he did pinpoint six trends with uncanny accuracy:

• The move to his five main industries (including communications) — most fundamentally the shift to electronics — and the “offshoring” of basic old industries to the developing countries. It is interesting that when management consultants McKinsey produced In Search of Excellence two years after Toffler, the “excellent companies” included several in the old economy that were about to decline. Toffler was more insightful about business than the business experts.

• The decentralised characteristic of new business and society. He was one of the first to stress the new role of renewable energy, and his book gave great impetus to the “radical right” — libertarians who believed in freedom in every direction, in a decentralised economy and decentralised government, but also greater personal and social freedom and “green” values. As he predicted, “third wave society will be built on segmentation and diversity” and “a profusion of lifestyles and more highly individualised personalities”.

• Toffler was absolutely right about the role of knowledge and imagination in the new world. “For third wave civilisation, the most basic resource of all — one that can never be exhausted — is information, including imagination.”

• He drew attention to the possibility of reuniting the role of producer and consumer — using the ugly word “prosumer” to connote this change. He drew attention to the trend to DIY (do it yourself) in everything from home improvement to pregnancy tests to therapy (the self-help movement). We can see the role of consumers in helping producers in the rise of supermarkets, in the fast food industry (the customer is her own waitress), in budget airlines (checking in online and carrying bags to the plane), and in ordering a customized computer from Dell. Toffler was absolutely right about increased personification of goods and the decreased cost in providing variety.

• He highlighted the acceleration of life, both under the second wave, and especially under the third — “the faster pace at which historical change occurs”.

• Finally, Toffler recognised the downside of increased freedom. “We must recognise three basic requirements for any individual: the need for community, structure, and meaning ... the collapse of second wave institutions breaks down structure and meaning in our lives. Individuals need life structure. The absence of structure breeds breakdown.” This may be Toffler’s most important conclusion, a hugely bigger challenge today than it was in 1980.

An incredibly impressive list of achievements. Future predictions are usually wrong, or half-right at best. Toffler got it mainly right and expressed the upside and downside of the age of imagination in terms that we should heed right now.