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The Price of Collapse: The Little Ice Age and the Fall of Ming China
How climate change ushered in the collapse of one of history’s mighty empires
In 1644, after close to three centuries of relative stability and prosperity, the Ming dynasty collapsed. Many historians attribute its demise to the Manchu invasion of China, but the truth is far more profound. The Price of Collapse provides an entirely new approach to the economic and social history of China, exploring how global climate crisis spelled the end of Ming rule.
The mid-seventeenth century witnessed the deadliest phase of the Little Ice Age, when temperatures and rainfall plunged and world economies buckled. Timothy Brook draws on the history of grain prices to paint a gripping portrait of the final tumultuous years of a once-great dynasty. He explores how global trade networks that increasingly moved silver into China may have affected prices and describes the daily struggle to survive amid grain shortages and famine. By the early 1640s, as the subjects of the Ming found themselves caught in a deadly combination of cold and drought that defied all attempts to stave off disaster, the Ming price regime collapsed, and with it the Ming political regime.
A masterful work of scholarship, The Price of Collapse reconstructs the experience of ordinary people under the immense pressure of unaffordable prices as their country slid from prosperity to calamity and shows how the market mediated the relationship between an empire and the climate that turned against it.
In 1644, after close to three centuries of relative stability and prosperity, the Ming dynasty collapsed. Many historians attribute its demise to the Manchu invasion of China, but the truth is far more profound. The Price of Collapse provides an entirely new approach to the economic and social history of China, exploring how global climate crisis spelled the end of Ming rule.
The mid-seventeenth century witnessed the deadliest phase of the Little Ice Age, when temperatures and rainfall plunged and world economies buckled. Timothy Brook draws on the history of grain prices to paint a gripping portrait of the final tumultuous years of a once-great dynasty. He explores how global trade networks that increasingly moved silver into China may have affected prices and describes the daily struggle to survive amid grain shortages and famine. By the early 1640s, as the subjects of the Ming found themselves caught in a deadly combination of cold and drought that defied all attempts to stave off disaster, the Ming price regime collapsed, and with it the Ming political regime.
A masterful work of scholarship, The Price of Collapse reconstructs the experience of ordinary people under the immense pressure of unaffordable prices as their country slid from prosperity to calamity and shows how the market mediated the relationship between an empire and the climate that turned against it.
256 pages, Hardcover
Published November 21, 2023
About the author
Timothy Brook
32 books105 followersTimothy James Brook is a Canadian historian, sinologist, and writer specializing in the study of China (sinology). He holds the Republic of China Chair, Department of History, University of British Columbia.
His research interests include the social and cultural history of the Ming Dynasty in China; law and punishment in Imperial China; collaboration during Japan's wartime occupation of China, 1937–45 and war crimes trials in Asia; global history; and historiography.
His research interests include the social and cultural history of the Ming Dynasty in China; law and punishment in Imperial China; collaboration during Japan's wartime occupation of China, 1937–45 and war crimes trials in Asia; global history; and historiography.
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Displaying 1 - 14 of 14 reviews
June 23, 2024
最近挺紅的一本書
對書的內容沒多大的想法
若要說總結心得大概就是這樣
崇禎：上天認真要亡我大明，朕沒有做錯啊啊啊
倒是覺得一本歷史著作的問題意識挺重要的
像是本書作者從氣候變遷找到解釋糧價衝破天的方法
還有很多其他人，也可能從不一樣的面向來解釋明亡清興
事實沒有變，但詮釋方法有千百種
突然覺得對"一切歷史都是當代史"
這句名言有更多體會了
對書的內容沒多大的想法
若要說總結心得大概就是這樣
崇禎：上天認真要亡我大明，朕沒有做錯啊啊啊
倒是覺得一本歷史著作的問題意識挺重要的
像是本書作者從氣候變遷找到解釋糧價衝破天的方法
還有很多其他人，也可能從不一樣的面向來解釋明亡清興
事實沒有變，但詮釋方法有千百種
突然覺得對"一切歷史都是當代史"
這句名言有更多體會了
February 2, 2026
卜正民用这本书展示了一个环境史的研究范例。内容本身没有什么新鲜之处，明史爱好者大多知道明末遇到了蒙德极小冰期，低温和干旱同时袭来，导致粮食危机，叠加内忧外患，最后中华衣冠沦于野蛮民族之蹄下。卜老师展示了如何用史料和数据来说明问题，让环境这类大因素落在具体的细节影响中，从而形成了令人信服的因果逻辑链条。
如果硬要挑毛病，我只能说明代的物价记录还是缺少，很多数据无法横向对比校验。相比之下，欧洲17世纪的档案文件已经足够丰富，史家很难完整分析。所以中国虽然有悠久的史学传统，然而原始材料在数量和完整方面，却是无法与中世纪以后的欧洲相提并论。这是个反直觉的常识，但也不难理解：毕竟只有中国皇帝才写起居注，普通人的生日、结婚、生子、葬礼，不配在历史上留下哪怕一点点痕迹。
如果硬要挑毛病，我只能说明代的物价记录还是缺少，很多数据无法横向对比校验。相比之下，欧洲17世纪的档案文件已经足够丰富，史家很难完整分析。所以中国虽然有悠久的史学传统，然而原始材料在数量和完整方面，却是无法与中世纪以后的欧洲相提并论。这是个反直觉的常识，但也不难理解：毕竟只有中国皇帝才写起居注，普通人的生日、结婚、生子、葬礼，不配在历史上留下哪怕一点点痕迹。
February 15, 2025
Dès qu’on quitte le système décimal, surtout quand on parle d’argent, je me retrouve comme lorsque mes parents tentaient de m’expliquer pourquoi 26 + 10 faisait 36 et pas 260, pétrifiée, en larmes, et tout le tintouin. J’exagère évidemment, mais ça me passe par-dessus la tête, ça peine à rentrer et j’oublie très vite (le temps d’aller me faire un thé) imaginez donc mon problème quand l’essentiel du livre parle de monnaies non décimales.
Bon du coup, outre me dire « oh ça devait être beaucoup » et être détrompé quelques pages plus loin, j’ai surtout essayé de capter le contexte autour (nan mais je suis moins bête que ce que j’écris essaie de vous démontrer très fort). Puis, au bout d’environ 150 pages (sur 280, dont 40 de notes et de glossaire et de références et de …, bref la fin d’un documentaire) on commence à mentionner l’ère glaciaire et on se dit « youpiii » pour finalement n’avoir qu’à une vache ou deux près 10 pages sur le phénomène et repartir sur l’histoire économique du riz par la valeur monétaire « oooooh ». Et bien sûr avoir des comparaisons de prix donnés c’est très intéressant, sauf que si je connais un petit peu l’histoire de la Chine à cette époque, pas suffisamment pour comprendre tous l’intérêt des noms de province, de lieu ou de personne cités. De plus, ce n’est globalement que ça, des études comparatives du nombre de centime d’argent, de wén et de tael sur des périodes données par rapport au prix du boisseau ou de l’hectolitre de riz (là encore j’ai du mal à réellement m’imaginer ce que ça représente, mais c’est le moment où j’aime dire que je souffre d’aphantasie et donc je suis incapable de créer une image mentale de quoi que ce soit). Très éclairantes, mais vu que je n’ai pas le regard fixé sur le truc à éclairer je suis un peu « ouaip. Ok. ».
Je pense que c’est un livre qui est plutôt destiné à un public ayant des connaissances assez poussées sur la Chine, ou sur la monnaie, ou qui sont capables de faire des tableaux de conversion à côté de leur livre plutôt que de se dire « non mais c’est bon j’ai (rien) compris ça va aller on continue ». Ça m’a permis cela dit de rafraichir quelques notions d’économie et j’ai appris des choses, notamment dans la conclusion et la postface. Peut-être juste pas la meilleure approche pour commencer.
Bon du coup, outre me dire « oh ça devait être beaucoup » et être détrompé quelques pages plus loin, j’ai surtout essayé de capter le contexte autour (nan mais je suis moins bête que ce que j’écris essaie de vous démontrer très fort). Puis, au bout d’environ 150 pages (sur 280, dont 40 de notes et de glossaire et de références et de …, bref la fin d’un documentaire) on commence à mentionner l’ère glaciaire et on se dit « youpiii » pour finalement n’avoir qu’à une vache ou deux près 10 pages sur le phénomène et repartir sur l’histoire économique du riz par la valeur monétaire « oooooh ». Et bien sûr avoir des comparaisons de prix donnés c’est très intéressant, sauf que si je connais un petit peu l’histoire de la Chine à cette époque, pas suffisamment pour comprendre tous l’intérêt des noms de province, de lieu ou de personne cités. De plus, ce n’est globalement que ça, des études comparatives du nombre de centime d’argent, de wén et de tael sur des périodes données par rapport au prix du boisseau ou de l’hectolitre de riz (là encore j’ai du mal à réellement m’imaginer ce que ça représente, mais c’est le moment où j’aime dire que je souffre d’aphantasie et donc je suis incapable de créer une image mentale de quoi que ce soit). Très éclairantes, mais vu que je n’ai pas le regard fixé sur le truc à éclairer je suis un peu « ouaip. Ok. ».
Je pense que c’est un livre qui est plutôt destiné à un public ayant des connaissances assez poussées sur la Chine, ou sur la monnaie, ou qui sont capables de faire des tableaux de conversion à côté de leur livre plutôt que de se dire « non mais c’est bon j’ai (rien) compris ça va aller on continue ». Ça m’a permis cela dit de rafraichir quelques notions d’économie et j’ai appris des choses, notamment dans la conclusion et la postface. Peut-être juste pas la meilleure approche pour commencer.
January 23, 2024
A great book that explores the use of creative proxy variables for examining historical climate phenomena. However, the author's thesis is more expansive than what the book actually covers. The rise in internal price of grain is attributed to falling output, which the author sees as a reflection of the maunder minimum (little ice age). However, it is unclear to what extent the inflation was exacerbated by bad granary management and market failures. An examination of whether similar changes in grain prices can be seen in areas that experienced comparable climate instability might have helped underscore the usefulness of grain price as a proxy for measuring climate change.
October 31, 2026
"at long last, we arrive at the core phenomenon around which I have written this book" at page 106 of a 169 total, that was not a fun joke. I had been thinking for a bit, "djeez dude, what ever happened to climate disturbance and its impact on Ming china?" The chapter just before this line was particularly off topic and felt as a train of thought that kept gaining tracktion. We started that chapter with the importance of maritime trade in southern costal China and how Ming officials dealt with it but ended up with how children of Chinese and Mulatto were to be called in Spanish south America. Somewhere the chapter veered into a wider disucssion of the pan pacific trade of the Spanish colonial empire.
Now how frustrating that was, I was initially sold on the premise, in particular I was charmed by the inclusion of a kwalitative source besides the quantitative; namely the memoirs of local teacher/ administrator Chen Qide written as a moral tale "simple worded handed down to instruct" who lived in the late Ming period and offers valuable insight on the state of society from a minor provincial gentry point of view. However at when the long last arrived, I was underwhelmed in essence his point boils down to "trace grain prices over a longer period as an indication of impact by the climate on agriculture and society." I mean..... sure?
The combination of frustration and underwelming led me to give up on the book at roughly 120.
Now how frustrating that was, I was initially sold on the premise, in particular I was charmed by the inclusion of a kwalitative source besides the quantitative; namely the memoirs of local teacher/ administrator Chen Qide written as a moral tale "simple worded handed down to instruct" who lived in the late Ming period and offers valuable insight on the state of society from a minor provincial gentry point of view. However at when the long last arrived, I was underwhelmed in essence his point boils down to "trace grain prices over a longer period as an indication of impact by the climate on agriculture and society." I mean..... sure?
The combination of frustration and underwelming led me to give up on the book at roughly 120.
November 21, 2024
明朝滅亡竟然與天氣變化有關？
在明朝末年，正值「小冰河時期」最寒冷時期，全球氣溫下降，中國也受到影響。這段期間，夏季大旱與冬季極寒，導致糧食大幅減產，百姓生活困苦。明朝經過多次的饑荒，官方都能調節糧食價格或讓物價自動回落，但明朝末年為何無能為力，導致「人相食」的慘況呢？
卜正民 (Timothy Brook) 的新書《價崩》(The Price of Collapse) 從天氣的角度解釋了明朝滅亡的原因。雖然天氣不是唯一原因，但它在整個歷史過程中扮演了重要角色。由於當時沒有系統性的物價紀錄，他利用各地的縣志，比較了萬曆，崇幀以及清初的糧價，讓我們更深入地了解了當時饑荒的規模，以及它如何對農業社會造成致命打擊。
我居然在一本書裏讀了世界史、明末史、經濟史、物價史和氣候史。
在明朝末年，正值「小冰河時期」最寒冷時期，全球氣溫下降，中國也受到影響。這段期間，夏季大旱與冬季極寒，導致糧食大幅減產，百姓生活困苦。明朝經過多次的饑荒，官方都能調節糧食價格或讓物價自動回落，但明朝末年為何無能為力，導致「人相食」的慘況呢？
卜正民 (Timothy Brook) 的新書《價崩》(The Price of Collapse) 從天氣的角度解釋了明朝滅亡的原因。雖然天氣不是唯一原因，但它在整個歷史過程中扮演了重要角色。由於當時沒有系統性的物價紀錄，他利用各地的縣志，比較了萬曆，崇幀以及清初的糧價，讓我們更深入地了解了當時饑荒的規模，以及它如何對農業社會造成致命打擊。
我居然在一本書裏讀了世界史、明末史、經濟史、物價史和氣候史。
September 29, 2026
What actually brought down the Ming Dynasty in 1644? For centuries, Chinese historians favored morality tales: corrupt eunuchs, paranoid emperors, and factional paralysis that led to the loss of the Mandate of Heaven. Modern economic historians prefer to follow the money, pointing to the expensive wars, trade disruptions, and unbearable tax burdens. Timothy Brook’s The Price of Collapse decisively rejects both frameworks. Narrating the fall of the Ming without the environment, Brook argues, is merely sound and fury signifying nothing. Instead, we must reckon with unprecedented decades of severe cold, drought, and volatility brought on by the Little Ice Age that shattered grain markets and triggered systemic state failure.
Because systematic price records are absent for 17th-century China, Brook reconstructs a granular micro-economy using local gazetteers, translating the prices of everyday necessities into silver taels: one cent for 600 grams of vegetables, one tael for a piglet, and even the annual cost of living (14 taels for a family to survive, 23 taels for a more comfortable living). I found real insights into Ming Society (diet, gender differences, class, bureaucratic priorities) revealed through the lens of prices. Brook's model of the Ming dynasty's climate and economy clearly shows how the price of rice typically responds to a poor harvest, with a short-term price spike and the import of grain from neighboring counties and the release of reserves from state granaries to stabilize society. Against this baseline, we begin to understand how repeated crop failures during the 1630s and 40s brought about enduring price inflation, the depletion of reserves, and devastating famine. Humanizing and supporting the analysis are vivid personal accounts from Chen Qide (a local schoolteacher), Zhang Lixiang (a scholar and agricultural enthusiast), and Martín de Rada (a Spanish missionary) that bring this world to life.
"When I was young, I remember life in our home region was prosperous and peaceful. Grain was plentiful, food was cheap, and people lived in harmony and security... But in recent years, disasters have struck continuously. Famine and plague follow one another without relief. Families have sold their children, eaten bark and wild grass, and ultimately perished in the gutters. What was once a place of abundance has turned into a place of total ruin." Chen Qide
"It is a thing to marvel at how little a native of this country requires to sustain his life. For a mere few copper cash — hardly a fraction of a silver real — a man can buy enough rice, herbs, and fish to feed himself for a day. Their daily existence is so frugal and meager that what a European spends on a single meal would suffice to maintain a Chinese family for a week." Martín de Rada
I was convinced by Brook's argument that global climate, not economics, drove the Ming collapse. Of course, one cannot ignore the Imjin War (the 1592 Japanese invasion of Korea that Ming China emptied its treasury to stop), the Single Whip Law (mandated the payment of taxes in silver, despite not having any domestic silver mines, creating an insatiable and unsustainable appetite for the metal), and the consequences of imperial bankruptcy, unpaid troops, and rising tax burdens in real terms. In his eagerness to dismantle the economic explanations, Brook overreaches by contesting the European Price Revolution itself. Citing economic historian John Munro, Brook notes that European inflation began before the arrival of American bullion, driven instead by a mid-15th-century boom in Central European silver mining (Saxony, Bohemia, Tyrol). But Brook misinterprets a timeline correction for a total repudiation. Munro never denied the profound, inflationary impact of New World silver from Potosí and Zacatecas between 1530 and 1650; he was just clarifying why the trend started before it arrived.
By limiting his timeline to 1644 and the collapse of the Ming, Brook misses the entire story. There would be a third cold wave in the Little Ice Age that hit China in the 1670s and 80s, a wave that triggered the Three Feudatories Revolt and may have influenced the Qing dynasty to engineer the world’s most sophisticated granary system. The combination of heightened state capacity and relatively benign climate would stabilize the Qing, though even the new system would be tested by later climate events like the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora. The Little Ice Age was a global phenomenon: climate-driven famine, pandemics, civil unrest, war, and imperial collapse seems to be the norm leaving marks on Germany, Mexico, Mughal India, and Safavid Persia. Brook is clearly aware of this larger context, but chooses to hyper-focus on his specific case study.
These critiques aside, The Price of Collapse is a brilliant work of historical analysis. The debate over the Ming collapse matters today because it probes the limits of governance in the face of ecological and monetary shocks, offering lessons as we navigate our own era of climate volatility and fragile globalized trade.
Because systematic price records are absent for 17th-century China, Brook reconstructs a granular micro-economy using local gazetteers, translating the prices of everyday necessities into silver taels: one cent for 600 grams of vegetables, one tael for a piglet, and even the annual cost of living (14 taels for a family to survive, 23 taels for a more comfortable living). I found real insights into Ming Society (diet, gender differences, class, bureaucratic priorities) revealed through the lens of prices. Brook's model of the Ming dynasty's climate and economy clearly shows how the price of rice typically responds to a poor harvest, with a short-term price spike and the import of grain from neighboring counties and the release of reserves from state granaries to stabilize society. Against this baseline, we begin to understand how repeated crop failures during the 1630s and 40s brought about enduring price inflation, the depletion of reserves, and devastating famine. Humanizing and supporting the analysis are vivid personal accounts from Chen Qide (a local schoolteacher), Zhang Lixiang (a scholar and agricultural enthusiast), and Martín de Rada (a Spanish missionary) that bring this world to life.
"When I was young, I remember life in our home region was prosperous and peaceful. Grain was plentiful, food was cheap, and people lived in harmony and security... But in recent years, disasters have struck continuously. Famine and plague follow one another without relief. Families have sold their children, eaten bark and wild grass, and ultimately perished in the gutters. What was once a place of abundance has turned into a place of total ruin." Chen Qide
"It is a thing to marvel at how little a native of this country requires to sustain his life. For a mere few copper cash — hardly a fraction of a silver real — a man can buy enough rice, herbs, and fish to feed himself for a day. Their daily existence is so frugal and meager that what a European spends on a single meal would suffice to maintain a Chinese family for a week." Martín de Rada
I was convinced by Brook's argument that global climate, not economics, drove the Ming collapse. Of course, one cannot ignore the Imjin War (the 1592 Japanese invasion of Korea that Ming China emptied its treasury to stop), the Single Whip Law (mandated the payment of taxes in silver, despite not having any domestic silver mines, creating an insatiable and unsustainable appetite for the metal), and the consequences of imperial bankruptcy, unpaid troops, and rising tax burdens in real terms. In his eagerness to dismantle the economic explanations, Brook overreaches by contesting the European Price Revolution itself. Citing economic historian John Munro, Brook notes that European inflation began before the arrival of American bullion, driven instead by a mid-15th-century boom in Central European silver mining (Saxony, Bohemia, Tyrol). But Brook misinterprets a timeline correction for a total repudiation. Munro never denied the profound, inflationary impact of New World silver from Potosí and Zacatecas between 1530 and 1650; he was just clarifying why the trend started before it arrived.
By limiting his timeline to 1644 and the collapse of the Ming, Brook misses the entire story. There would be a third cold wave in the Little Ice Age that hit China in the 1670s and 80s, a wave that triggered the Three Feudatories Revolt and may have influenced the Qing dynasty to engineer the world’s most sophisticated granary system. The combination of heightened state capacity and relatively benign climate would stabilize the Qing, though even the new system would be tested by later climate events like the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora. The Little Ice Age was a global phenomenon: climate-driven famine, pandemics, civil unrest, war, and imperial collapse seems to be the norm leaving marks on Germany, Mexico, Mughal India, and Safavid Persia. Brook is clearly aware of this larger context, but chooses to hyper-focus on his specific case study.
These critiques aside, The Price of Collapse is a brilliant work of historical analysis. The debate over the Ming collapse matters today because it probes the limits of governance in the face of ecological and monetary shocks, offering lessons as we navigate our own era of climate volatility and fragile globalized trade.
December 7, 2024
Un libro que muestra la intricada relación entre el clima y los fenómenos sociales y económicos. The Price of Collapse cuenta la historia de la caída de la dinastía Ming en China y como la mini era glacial del siglo XVI y los cambios en los precios de los alimentos que produjo, tuvieron grandes consecuencias, inestabilidad política, revueltas, inflación y eventualmente la caída del régimen. El libro es de lectura sencilla, con un gran trabajo historiografico detrás, basado en fuentes originales y recuentos de los sucesos en el siglo XVI.
Muy recomendado.
Muy recomendado.
July 20, 2024
Excellent short work of economic history with a focused thesis. Could have gone into more detail around the Little Ice Age and Chinese agriculture (i.e. what kind of crops were grown in China, how exactly did weather changes cause crop failures, etc) to reinforce the thesis that it was the weather changes themselves that caused the spikes in grain prices. However, what is there is sufficient to convince me of the author's thesis
September 1, 2025
A fascinating examination of the Little Ice Age’s role in the collapse of the Ming dynasty. As someone interested in agricultural history, it was an engaging read with notes of horror as the author connects not just price but the human experience of those suffering during the 17th century
July 4, 2024
“If anything served to constrain the reduction of everything to a price, it was the Christian virtue of caritas”
In a book on Ming Dynasty China, really?
In a book on Ming Dynasty China, really?
December 10, 2025
价格的波动是因为天灾，天灾是因为六次气候的巨变。卜正民教授为他的小冰期理论从价格变化进行了夯实。
对普通读者不是太友好，一堆价格数据和气候变化数据，看着没什么意思，但应该是具有很好的史料价值。
对普通读者不是太友好，一堆价格数据和气候变化数据，看着没什么意思，但应该是具有很好的史料价值。
January 5, 2026
跳读，更多还是为了体会一下历史研究的方法和特色——上个月才刚读了《社会学家与历史学家》，于是抱错了预期（毕竟副标题带着“小冰期”），没有想到这本书五分之三都是价格史，最后两张才勉强和气候联系起来，结论得出的似乎也很勉强🤔当然我想大概和史料不充足和无法直接对应气候变化有关系吧，但总之，如果不是为了专门研究这一主题的话，没太大必要读这本书。
January 3, 2026
我覺得這本書還蠻好看的，卜正民花了很多時間來算帳。
明帝國滅國，不是因為人謀不臧！不是因為白銀湧入而通貨膨脹！而是因為小冰河時期的不穩定！
這就讓我想到上次看的《歷史上的大暖化》，是8-13世紀左右，之後就長達六世紀的小冰河期。
故事突然出了續集！
「經濟史學家包恩凡特（Walter Bauernfeind）與沃伊特克（Ulrich Woitek）在一九九九年發表一篇論文，分析日耳曼地區小冰期糧價跟氣候擾動的關係。他們觀察到，「氣候變化對經濟與人口變化影響重大，但近期經濟史研究鮮少著重於此」，而且歷史學家往往用「人口成長、貨幣貶值、貨幣供應增加」來解釋十六世紀的「物價革命」，並認為氣候惡化的「影響相對次要」。 」
——《價崩》
我覺得這件事還蠻有趣的，不過糧價影響的因素還蠻多的，氣候的變化並不是一朝一夕的劇烈改變，所以應該是氣候變化非常劇烈的時候，比方說天災的時候，才會有明顯的感受到？
我覺得這本書有個大的天險就是要做明朝的物價史很困難，因為史料太不齊全，不像歐洲的商業紀錄很多，中國通常沒有第一手的交易紀錄，只有官方的財政資料，而這些資料和市價可能偏離非常多。
這本書儘量在地方誌找資料，所以作者認為主要是經濟資料，還算是有其研究意義，但也承認其中的錯漏和困難。
第一章是引用「陳其德」的紀錄，感覺明末還真的蠻慘。陳其德就是沒考上舉人的一個鄉紳（或說是耕讀之家）。寫了兩篇文章剛剛好被收入地方誌。作為一個教書先生，住在位於長江三角洲，距今上海西南一百公里處的桐鄉。
然後這個陳其德和他的紀錄，在他後來2018寫的《忽必烈的獵豹 Great State: China and the World》也有提到。
第二章談萬曆年間的物價系統。萬曆年間，作者使用海瑞和沈榜的紀錄作為物價依據。這個海瑞就是《海瑞罷官》的海瑞，《海瑞罷官》是1959年4月北京市副市長吳晗根據中國共產黨中央委員會主席毛澤東號召學習明朝大臣海瑞「直言敢諫」精神而寫成的一齣京劇。然後馬屁拍到馬腿上，後來對這部戲的批評揭開了文化大革命的序幕。
不過海瑞的帳本還是蠻有趣的，這章我也是看的覺得很有意思，比方說一兩銀子，在這裡：
一兩銀=小廝（1588）=寫新歲門神的服務（1548）=密魯銃（西洋火槍，1601）=硯（1591）=李袁二先生精選唐詩訓解（四冊）=芥片茶（1620）
話說芥片茶不知道什麼茶，因為「細茶」一斤才一錢，所以一斤芥片茶可以買十斤細茶，所以可能是高級茶之類的吧。
諸如此類的物價討論，覺得蠻有趣的，我覺得所有用明朝做背景的小說作者都該看看啊！
除此之外，他還使用了傳教士的紀錄、判決等等，來推敲物價和通貨膨脹的狀況。
這本書後面還有駁斥了「美洲白銀輸入造成通貨膨脹以致明帝國崩潰」的說法。他猜測主要是奢侈品市場受到影響，新富持有白銀，投入藝術品市場以取得文化資本。
討論晚明饑荒乃至食人的記載和觸發點，糧價、物價等等，並且和小冰河期以及旱災、洪災、瘟疫等等比對，糧價和物價的討論。總之我覺得蠻精彩的。
對於秘魯白銀輸入崩潰論，他主要的反對論點是：
1. 大部分的白銀都不是來自秘魯，反而是日本（只佔秘魯產銀不到10%）
2. 大部分的白銀是透過東印度公司的貿易，而不是直接大量流入
3. 明帝國的經濟體和歐洲一樣大，這麼大的經濟體可以吃掉
所以他認為只有特定產業受影響，像是奢侈品產業。但糧價才是更能反應帝國崩潰的主要成因。
不過我認為他這個研究呢，只能說有相關性不能說有因果性，但這種研究本來就很難做，而且中國商人不像歐洲人都會留下大量資料和帳冊，中國商人都是內外兩本帳，交易完成就毀掉免得被查帳或課稅，所以都只能用間接的資料。
他考慮物價的方式，除了地方誌之外，還有官司的案例，以及耶穌會傳教士的觀察。
我覺得就是相當亂七八糟的資料，感覺很難做。
總之是一本很有趣的歷史書，收穫滿多的。但我最喜歡的其實是物價討論的部分！
明帝國滅國，不是因為人謀不臧！不是因為白銀湧入而通貨膨脹！而是因為小冰河時期的不穩定！
這就讓我想到上次看的《歷史上的大暖化》，是8-13世紀左右，之後就長達六世紀的小冰河期。
故事突然出了續集！
「經濟史學家包恩凡特（Walter Bauernfeind）與沃伊特克（Ulrich Woitek）在一九九九年發表一篇論文，分析日耳曼地區小冰期糧價跟氣候擾動的關係。他們觀察到，「氣候變化對經濟與人口變化影響重大，但近期經濟史研究鮮少著重於此」，而且歷史學家往往用「人口成長、貨幣貶值、貨幣供應增加」來解釋十六世紀的「物價革命」，並認為氣候惡化的「影響相對次要」。 」
——《價崩》
我覺得這件事還蠻有趣的，不過糧價影響的因素還蠻多的，氣候的變化並不是一朝一夕的劇烈改變，所以應該是氣候變化非常劇烈的時候，比方說天災的時候，才會有明顯的感受到？
我覺得這本書有個大的天險就是要做明朝的物價史很困難，因為史料太不齊全，不像歐洲的商業紀錄很多，中國通常沒有第一手的交易紀錄，只有官方的財政資料，而這些資料和市價可能偏離非常多。
這本書儘量在地方誌找資料，所以作者認為主要是經濟資料，還算是有其研究意義，但也承認其中的錯漏和困難。
第一章是引用「陳其德」的紀錄，感覺明末還真的蠻慘。陳其德就是沒考上舉人的一個鄉紳（或說是耕讀之家）。寫了兩篇文章剛剛好被收入地方誌。作為一個教書先生，住在位於長江三角洲，距今上海西南一百公里處的桐鄉。
然後這個陳其德和他的紀錄，在他後來2018寫的《忽必烈的獵豹 Great State: China and the World》也有提到。
第二章談萬曆年間的物價系統。萬曆年間，作者使用海瑞和沈榜的紀錄作為物價依據。這個海瑞就是《海瑞罷官》的海瑞，《海瑞罷官》是1959年4月北京市副市長吳晗根據中國共產黨中央委員會主席毛澤東號召學習明朝大臣海瑞「直言敢諫」精神而寫成的一齣京劇。然後馬屁拍到馬腿上，後來對這部戲的批評揭開了文化大革命的序幕。
不過海瑞的帳本還是蠻有趣的，這章我也是看的覺得很有意思，比方說一兩銀子，在這裡：
一兩銀=小廝（1588）=寫新歲門神的服務（1548）=密魯銃（西洋火槍，1601）=硯（1591）=李袁二先生精選唐詩訓解（四冊）=芥片茶（1620）
話說芥片茶不知道什麼茶，因為「細茶」一斤才一錢，所以一斤芥片茶可以買十斤細茶，所以可能是高級茶之類的吧。
諸如此類的物價討論，覺得蠻有趣的，我覺得所有用明朝做背景的小說作者都該看看啊！
除此之外，他還使用了傳教士的紀錄、判決等等，來推敲物價和通貨膨脹的狀況。
這本書後面還有駁斥了「美洲白銀輸入造成通貨膨脹以致明帝國崩潰」的說法。他猜測主要是奢侈品市場受到影響，新富持有白銀，投入藝術品市場以取得文化資本。
討論晚明饑荒乃至食人的記載和觸發點，糧價、物價等等，並且和小冰河期以及旱災、洪災、瘟疫等等比對，糧價和物價的討論。總之我覺得蠻精彩的。
對於秘魯白銀輸入崩潰論，他主要的反對論點是：
1. 大部分的白銀都不是來自秘魯，反而是日本（只佔秘魯產銀不到10%）
2. 大部分的白銀是透過東印度公司的貿易，而不是直接大量流入
3. 明帝國的經濟體和歐洲一樣大，這麼大的經濟體可以吃掉
所以他認為只有特定產業受影響，像是奢侈品產業。但糧價才是更能反應帝國崩潰的主要成因。
不過我認為他這個研究呢，只能說有相關性不能說有因果性，但這種研究本來就很難做，而且中國商人不像歐洲人都會留下大量資料和帳冊，中國商人都是內外兩本帳，交易完成就毀掉免得被查帳或課稅，所以都只能用間接的資料。
他考慮物價的方式，除了地方誌之外，還有官司的案例，以及耶穌會傳教士的觀察。
我覺得就是相當亂七八糟的資料，感覺很難做。
總之是一本很有趣的歷史書，收穫滿多的。但我最喜歡的其實是物價討論的部分！
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