Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners

by William L. Ascher

Energy needs . . . oil supplies . . . inflation rates . . . the demand for new homes . . . in concerns like these, forecasting plays a crucial role. Forecasts not only determine how billions of dollars will be spent but also commit national policies far into the future; yet, no one really knows how to judge the reliability of forecasts. In this innovative study, William Ascher examines the records of expert forecasting of national trends in population, economics, energy, transportation, and technology over a fifty-year period. The results help to identify both the accuracies and hidden biases of forecasting techniques, information that should be of vital interest to all policy-makers and planners.

256 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 1978

About the author

William Ascher is Donald C. McKenna Professor of Government and Economics at Claremont McKenna College.