Peoplequake: Mass Migration, Aging Nations and the Coming Population Crash

by Fred Pearce

Wherever we look, population is the driver of the most toxic issues on the political agenda. But while prominent voices cry out for population control, few realise that the population bomb is already being defused. Half the world's women are having two children or fewer. Within a generation, the world's population will be falling. And we will all be getting very old.





So should we welcome the return to centre stage of the tribal elders? Or is humanity facing a fate worse than environmental apocalypse?





Brilliant, heretical and accessible to all, Fred Pearce takes on the matter that is fundamental to who we are and how we live, confronting our demographic demons.

Genres: Nonfiction, Politics, Science, Environment, Sociology, Society, Social Science

397 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 2010

About the author

Fred Pearce is an English author and journalist based in London. He has been described as one of Britain's finest science writers and has reported on environment, popular science and development issues from 64 countries over the past 20 years. He specialises in global environmental issues, including water and climate change, and frequently takes heretic and counter-intuitive views - "a sceptic in the best sense", he says.

Reviews

[Angie Boyter · Rating 4 out of 5]

Should provide good fodder for our Sunday Philosophers book group! The member who nominated it said he did so for the thoughts it provoked about the future and what might come to pass, which would be good fodder for our discussion.
The book has loads of very interesting bits of info from across time and around the world. A lot is interesting but perhaps trivial, like the fact that Malthus was a vicar, and a lot of it is small data points but not insignificant, like the fact that a Congolese pygmy was displayed in a zoo cage with the animals! SO SAD! These were the kinds of things I got out of the first part of the book.
The latter part of the book is where the issues to ponder and discuss really came up, so if that is what you are looking for, hang on.
MEETING REPORT: The group overall was rather unimpressed by the book itself but felt it made excellent material for a good discussion and had lots of interesting information.

[Don · Rating 4 out of 5]

I blogged the following discussion of this book on the Migrants Rights Network website at www.migrantsrights.org.uk.

It is increasingly clear that the coalition government’s immigration policies are going to be informed by the population pessimism which regards growth at the level of the ONS’s(http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8318010...) upper predictions of 70 million people by 2031 as the very worst fate that could befall the United Kingdom.

Much of the discussion around the announcement of a cap on third country migrant numbers made by the Home Secretary on 28th June is in line with the gloomy thinking that more people always means bad news and draconian measures are justified to bring about a reversal of trends.

Whilst the negative take on population figures has been contested by social policy analysts working in such bodies as ippr (http://www.ippr.org.uk/pressreleases/...) and Centre Forum (http://www.google.co.uk/search?source...) the sheer force of Malthusian commonsense continues to rule the roost amongst politicians and tabloid headline writers.

That might change with the public of a splendid new book by the Guardian’s Greenwash columnist, Fred Pearce. Peoplequake: Mass Migration, Ageing Nations and the Coming Population Crash (http://www.guardianbookshop.co.uk/Ber... goes at the argument full tilt and from just about every possible angle. He looks at the work of the Reverend Bob Malthus as it moved through its various stages of gloomy population punditry, training manual for colonial administrators, and the foundations for the distasteful ideology of eugenics shows just how unreliable it has always been as a predictor of the outcomes of population rise.

The UK illustrates the error in this type of thinking as clearly as anything else. In 1821 the population of Britain was a mere 20 million and this has risen by 300% in the 190 years since to our present 61 million. But rather than the famine and pestilence predicted by Malthus, this same period has seen encouraging moves away from the conditions of epidemic disease, the appalling congestion of the cities of the early industrial revolution, better planned housing and health care, and social amenities which have all tended to the improvement of human life and the increase of happiness.

Pearce argues that rather than bang on about large numbers we should be looking at the likely scenarios which be worked out in the years ahead which will be affected by concentrations or the dispersal of populations. He points out that, although the world population will continue to rise over the next few decades, reaching around 9 billion in 2040, most of this will arise from an a decline in the rate of death, rather than the arrival of new people. Our societies are filling up principally with people who are living longer and growing greyer.

A decline in birth rates, long noted in the countries of the developed world but increasingly apparent in China, India and other emerging regions, means that the generation alive in 2040 will be living on the cusp of a prolonged period of human history during which more people die each year than are born. For Pearce, this is the really significant fact which should be bearing down on our policy-making in today’s work as a we plan for a transitional period of adjustment as we work out the social relations needed to sustain civilised life in what will be older, but also more peaceful and hopefully wiser societies.

In this scenario immigration is not a phenomenon we need to bear down on, but a useful resource which will ensure that youthful energy and innovation finds its place in the parts of the world where smooth foreheads and clear-sighted eyes are becoming increasingly scarce.

There are many counterfactuals stacking up against the population pessimists and which challenge the idea that downward pressure now needs to be brought to bear on levels of migration. They suggest that better principles for managing migration will be found in the empowerment of migrants rather than increases in coercive controls. If we are going to need to tap into the resources of the young, the energetic, the brightest and the most imaginative to meet the demands of this transitional period of human history we should start to do that now by drawing them - and the them increasingly being migrants - into the policy discussion, rather than leave it until too much later.

[Julie · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book is all about demographics. What happens as people have fewer children, live longer, move more? David Foot, author of Boom, Bust, and Echo argued that two-thirds of everything can be explained by demographics, and that's what Pearce sets out to prove in The Coming Population Crash.

Pearce starts with a review of demographic thinking, starting with the 18th-century scholar Malthus and working his way forward. Pearce is at his strongest, I think, when he describes how generations of political scientists, economists, and demographers took Malthus to heart and unwittingly engineered Malthusian crises which they described as "inevitable." One poignant example was the Irish famine, wherein rich (British) landowners exported food from the island while their Irish tenants starved, all while arguing that the problem was Irish fertility. A similar rhetoric is happening even now in Kenya. Malthus influenced -- directly or indirectly -- eugenics movements and xenophobic thinking that continue today.

I was also impressed with Pearce's analysis of today's world. Travelling from Italy to Bangladesh to San Paolo, Pearce paints a picture of the world as it is and describes how we got here. All over the globe, with few exceptions, women are having fewer children. Peace points out some of the political ramifications, from the "little emperors" in China to the abandonment of cities in East Germany to the bulging slums in megalopolises around the world.

Where I thought Pearce was weakest was in his final chapters, the ones where he gets to the crux of his subtitle, Our Planet's Surprising Future. Pearce envisions an aging world, but one in which the elderly are more active in political and social affairs, more important in taking care of their families, and more present in the workplace. I think, given the amount of times Pearce described previous demographic trends (the rapid decrease in fertility, for example) as "completely unexpected," he should be the first to admit that a similar "unexpected" trend could creep up on us. There's just no way to predict what the planet's going to be like in 2050, let alone 2100.

That said, I thought this was a well-researched, well-argued book. Certainly, it provides food for thought.

[Kuszma · Rating 5 out of 5]

Mindig, ha épp olyan mondat csúszna ki belőlem, hogy ezt vagy azt a könyvet „kötelező olvasmánnyá kéne tenni”, akkor rácsapok a számra. Nem csak azért, mert jelen állás szerint kötelező olvasmánnyá tenni valamit egyenértékű azzal, hogy egy komplett generációval megutáltatjuk, hanem azért is, mert ezek a könyvek azzal idéznek elő bennem revelációt, hogy olyan kérésekre válaszolnak, amik engem momentán pont foglalkoztatnak – viszont mások meg más kérdésekkel bíbelődnek (például azzal, hogy a meg sem született unokáik hogyan kerüljék el, hogy a migránsok meg sem született unokái megerőszakolják őket), úgyhogy náluk alighanem elmaradna a heuréka-élmény. Pedig ezt a könyvet kötelező… – (CSATT)

Pearce végigtekinti a demográfiai trendeket a XVIII. századtól napjainkig, valamit az arra adott emberi válaszokat. Kezdi Malthus-szal, aki először kiáltott fel ilyeténképpen: „Jaj! Hogy szaporodik ez a sok pór itt előttem! Ha így folytatják, mind éhen fogunk halni!” Mint minden apokalipszis-pesszimistának, neki is hamar követői támadtak – különösen mert Malthus tanainak egyik nagyon praktikus hozadéka volt, hogy ellenezte a szegények támogatását, arra hivatkozva, hogy ha egy csoport túlszaporodik, akkor a világ legtermészetesebb dolga, ha hagyjuk őket éhen dögleni – és ez ugye elég olcsón kivitelezhető szociális program. Hogy a gyakorlatban hogy nézett ki ennek megvalósítása, arra kiváló példa az ír burgonyavész, amikor a britek angolos nyugalommal végignézték, ahogy Írország lakossága a felére csökken: elpusztul, vagy éppen kivándorol. Az elmélet a 60-as években kapott új erőre, és igazi túlnépesedési pánikká* alakult – ennek hatására az ENSZ nemcsak asszisztált Kína és India agresszív népességcsökkentő politikájához**, de még ki is tüntette őket érte. Aztán szépen-lassan láthatóvá vált, hogy a fejlettebb világ problémája nem is a túlnépesedés, hanem az elöregedés és a népességfogyás – ami hasonlóan irracionális kapkodásra kényszerítette a kormányokat, mint az ellenkezője. Amiből nem mellesleg az a tanulság, hogy hamarabb oldja meg egy népesség alulról a saját demográfiai problémáit, mint az állam a maga parancsuralmi eszközeivel.

Ezt követően Pearce rátér az ezekből fakadó két gyakorlati problémára: a migrációra és arra, hogy az egyre kevesebb adófizetőnek várhatóan egyre több nyugdíjast kell majd eltartania. A bevándorlásról szóló rész igazán megvilágító erejű - bár ezzel kapcsolatban fontos szem előtt tartani, hogy mivel a könyv 2010-ben jelent meg, még egy jóval visszafogottabb migrációs nyomásra reagál. És hát Pearce interpretálásában ez a népmozgás a világ legtermészetesebb dolga, per def fizikai törvény: a nagyobb sűrűségű régiókból áramlanak a részecskék a kisebb sűrűségű régiók felé. És hadd áramoljanak, ez a dolguk. Ha egyszer egy olasz állampolgárnak derogál egy takarítócégnél elhelyezkedni, pincérként rohangálni, ágytálat cserélni az öregek otthonában vagy halfeldolgozó üzemben dolgozni, akkor mi sem logikusabb (sőt: üdvösebb), mint hogy ezeket a munkákat bevándorlók végezzék el. Úgyhogy valószínűleg akkor tesz magának jót a többségi társadalom, ha elkezd barátkozni a gondolattal, hogy gyermekeinek nyugdíját fiatal migránsok adóforintjaiból fogják fedezni – más út jelen tudásunk szerint: nincs. Úgyhogy ne annyira a kerítéseken, mint az integráció problémáin gondolkodjanak – hogy mondjuk ők maguk mivel hátráltatják ezt az integrációt.

Az öregedéssel kapcsolatos fejtegetések során szegültem először szembe Pearce megállapításaival – az a furcsa helyzet állt ugyanis elő, hogy ez egyszer én pesszimistábbnak bizonyulok nála. Pearce ugyanis azt várja az egyre több, de ugyanakkor egyre fittebb szépkorútól, hogy egy visszafogottabb, nyugodtabb Európa építőkövei lesznek – én azonban tartok tőle, hogy ez nem feltétlenül lesz így. A Brexitet Britanniában az idősek szavazták meg, Kelet-Közép-Európában pedig még rosszabb a helyzet: a Kádár-korszakban szocializálódott nyugdíjasokban úgy fest, nagyon termékeny táptalajra lel a xenofóbia és a szemellenzősség. Úgyhogy én sajnos el tudom képzelni azt a végkimenetet, hogy az egyre kevesebb innovatív fiatal egy öregek által irányított gerontokrácia markába kerül. Ne legyen igazam.

Ettől függetlenül nagy élmény volt Pearce lendületes fejtegetéseit olvasni – minden második oldalra jutott egy olyan megdöbbentő infó, ami új megvilágításba helyezte eddigi tudásomat. Az urat külön dicséret illeti rendkívül színes stílusáért – ha például két példa közül kell választania, hát biztos a látványosabbat pakolja elénk –, valamint azért az átható lelkesedésért, amivel a demográfiát igazi cool tudományként tolja az orrunk alá: olyasmiként, ami mindennel összefügg és mindenre kihatással van, és aminek ismerete nélkül minden geopolitikai fejtegetés csak félkarú óriás.


* A túlnépesedési pánik még a filozófiai gondolkodók világába is átgyűrűzött, nemegyszer bődületesen dehumán elméleteket hozva létre, lásd Albert Caraco elméleteit.
** Indiáról csak annyit, hogy a miniszterelnöknő, Indira Gandhi először pénzt ajánlott annak, aki sterilizáltatja magát, de amikor ez a program kudarcot vallott, elkezdte a katonaság bevonásával kényszersterilizáltatni a jellemzően szegény és muzulmán lakosságot. A vicc az, hogy ezek a programok (pogromok?) láthatóan nem csökkentették a népszaporulatot – de ahogy a hölgyet leváltották, a népesség növekedése valamiért lassulni kezdett (nem állt meg, az még odébb van – de lassult). A megoldás oka sokat szerint abszurd módon a Zöld Forradalomban keresendő: az új agráreredmények ugyanis lehetővé tették, hogy kétszer-háromszor annyi terményt állítsanak elő ugyanannyi földterületen. Ám ez furcsa módon nem azt okozta, hogy a családok még több gyermeket mertek vállalni, hanem épp ellenkezőleg: mivel a földeken már nem volt szükség munkáskezekre, ezért egyrészt a fiatalok a városokba áramlottak, ahol csökkent a gyerekvállalási kedvük, és a falun maradtak se érezték szükségét annak, hogy 6-7 utódot hagyjanak hátra, hogy legyen munkáskéz.

[Liz Throop · Rating 1 out of 5]

Fred Pearce has earned his reputation as an excellent writer, and he has chosen an important topic for his book The Coming Population Crash. In fact, the issues he covers are too important to stand unchallenged. Here are a few of the issues I have with, The Coming Population Crash (alternate title Peoplequake). Chapter 10 “Small towns in Germany” describes in the drop in population in Eastern Germany caused primarily by young womens’ relocation to Western Germany. Pearce writes, “The former people’s republic is staring into a demographic abyss because its citizens don’t want babies anymore.” Pearce describes their fertility rate as struggling “up to around 1.2, only just over half the rate needed to maintain the population,” [emphasis mine]. He continues that, “Europe hasn’t seen cityscapes like this since the bombing of the Second World War;” and speaking of the aging of the population, he remarks, “It [the town of Hoyerswerda’s] population pyramid is upturned—more like a mushroom cloud.” Abysses, bombing, mushroom clouds … despite the loaded language, Pearce never identifies why a shrinking Howerswerda is, exactly, a tragedy. He describes recent violent attacks on refugees by racist youth in Hoyerswerda—as if this were an effect, rather than a cause, of the town’s population decline. Of course the abandonment of Eastern Germany by the young and fertile is at least as much a function of the failed economy as the low birthrate. The subtext seems to be that there aren’t enough ethnic Germans in this area, rather than a concern about overall population issues. This is all highly ironic in a book that seeks to identify population reduction as part and parcel of the eugenics movement.

In later chapters, Pearce defends international migration, but doesn’t seem to notice the disconnect with his earlier concerns. He describes the area around Hoyerswerda as a feral wasteland … “feral enough for wolves,” which have been “slinking” into the area. He concludes the chapter by saying the region is indeed going back to nature, and Europeans should be worried. Strange words from a supposed environmentalist! In the Ch. 11 he refers to a European “baby famine” as if Europeans were trying unsuccessfully to have more children, when in fact they are avid users of birth control. Pearce discusses the fact that Sardinians are moving to the mainland and having fewer children means that farms there lie abandoned. Rather than celebrating that the million and a half Sardinian people might be able to live in harmony with the many rare plants and animals on the island, Pearce paints a scene of unmitigated disaster. He prefers the Swedish birthrate, which he describes as not being a “demographic meltdown.” Despite railing against the early population control movement as a mask for eugenics, racism, and cultural imperialism, Pearce’s lack of objectivity comes across as little more than race panic.

To me, the most telling sentence in the book appears on page 100. “Gene Ausubel of the Rockefeller University in New York fears ‘the twilight of the West’ as Europe’s population diminishes and ages. One can imagine a shrinking Europe, whose residences fill with immigrants from North Africa, who spread their culture hostile to science.” Pearce presents this quote uncritically. IMMIGRANTS FROM NORTH AFRICA, WHO SPREAD THEIR CULTURE HOSTILE TO SCIENCE? How do YOU spell xenophobia?

You’d think a so-called environmentalist would have, instead, discussed the twilight of the West, North, South and East if we don’t do something to abate global warming right away. It’s probably too easy to dismiss Pearce as just another racist. I suspect the purpose of The Coming Population Crash is to get people worked up about an impending crisis without actually charging them do anything new or different.

[Ryan · Rating 3 out of 5]

As befits a roving journalist, Pearce's book is a collection of field reports from around the world, sometimes amusing, often eye-opening and at times insightful updates of the current state of affairs on our planet, from a sociological and cultural point of view. I do agree with other readers that in such a short piece of work it lacks deep analysis and well argued conclusions, but that did not detract from my enjoyment of this book. However his optimism and hope for a better future where mankind's current depredations on the living planet are constrained I found rather baseless in a few instances, for eg his belief that more people makes for better land management in Africa was difficult to accept without more substantiation, to give one example. This aside, the major demographic trend that the author harps on - the ageing and eventual shrinkage of world population, does present some hope that the current magnitude of environmental destruction would inevitably moderate. The million dollar question then is, would it be too late? As Pearce correctly pointed out, it is the growth in per capita consumption that is today the key driver of ecological impact rather than sheer population numbers. And to counter that, efficiency gains from green tech and fewer people may not be enough without a commensurate change in societal values.

[Paul · Rating 5 out of 5]

Fred Pearce's optimistic outlook is the perfect antidote to the relentless Malthusian world view of immiment plague, pestilence and famine. There really are reasons to be cheerful if challenges are addressed and not left to become self-fulfilling prophesies of the doomsayers. The book doesn't fight shy of the massive issues that need to be confronted: feticide, eugenics, euthansia, mass migration, immigration, environmental impact, wealth polarisation and much more besides. But just as Malthus couldn't see how the world could sustain more people back in the 1800s, the same blinkered thinking threatens to condemn efforts to lift millions of people out of poverty and to abandon them to their fate. Pearce's view is that the demographic timebomb may yet be defused by falling birthrates, ageing populations and the changing role of women around the world.

[Becky · Rating 4 out of 5]

Pearce has never met an immigrant he didn't like, and that relentless optimism gets a little old over 300 pages. I could have wished for a more even-handed treatment on this subject, but the scope of his research is impressive. You might think that demographics is simply births and deaths, but Pearce looks at how the human life cycle has changed over the last 150 years and how those changes affect politics, technology, women's rights, and the graying of the global population. (Best sentence in the book: "Should we fear the wrinklies?")

I recommend this book. There are other books that explore the minutiae of all the individual topics Pearce introduces, but this is a great overview.

[Martin Empson · Rating 5 out of 5]

http://resolutereader.blogspot.com/20...

[Jani-Petri · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was great from so many angles. It was factually enlightening and didn't fall to idiotic malthusian misanthropy not to naive optimism. Humanist book through and through.

[Alesa · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a great companion book to Erlich’s The Population Bomb from 1970 — because as we can all see, humans haven’t died off from starvation by now. However, the author shows us that the rate of population growth has stopped, and many regions are facing a decline in birth rate, to the point where most of the developed nations no longer have replacement populations.

Why? That’s what the book is about. He outlines many intersecting vectors, such as (a) the Green Revolution transforming crop productivity; (b) the education and empowerment of women; and (c) contraception.

Here’s the basic premise. Global population has been doubling in ever-shorter cycles. (The book came out in 2010, when we were approaching a “mere” 7 billion.) But during the Green Revolution, crop yield increases outstripped population increases. New plant varieties were more productive, but also required fertilizers, more water, and fewer farmhands (because they could be harvested by machines). Excess labor moved to the cities.

As women become more empowered and better educated, and have access to contraception, they naturally have fewer kids. So now we are facing a greying population with not enough people to care for or support the old. The answer, the author argues, is for the developed nations to allow immigration from the poorer nations (which still have burgeoning populations of mostly young people) to do the jobs wealthier people won’t do. Think nursing home aids, farm labor, etc. The REAL problem, argues the author, is environmental degradation, not population.

The author is an environmental journalist, and he writes in a rather sensational style. While this made the book easier to read, and funny at times, I felt it also detracted a bit from the very serious nature of the topic. Still, I admired this book a lot and was grateful for the alternative viewpoint it offered. While the argument provided a welcome relief from my ongoing worries about overpopulation, it also showed the need for us to drastically reduce consumption of non-food items like energy.

“Migrants are a major means of redistributing the world’s wealth from the rich to the poor.” (Because immigrants initially do low-paid work, then assimilate, become educated, and their children become professionals)

“A stable, sagacious society that has lost its adolescent restlessness and settled into middle age sounds appealing. Our world will be more densely populated for sure, but it will also be less frenetic and hopefully more humane —a kinder, gentler, wiser and greener world.” (On why the greying of the world may not be such a bad thing)

“Our descendants will look back on the 1960s peak as the most significant demographic event in the history of human population.”

“The ‘population bomb’ is being defused. By women. Because they want to… The feminization of both contraception and population is one of the major changes of the pat two decades and underpins the rapid worldwide fall in fertility.”

“Children, the traditional farm drudges, are no longer so useful. They get in the way. Farmers instead need cash to invest in fertilizer and seeds. So to be useful, the kids have to find work. That requires education. And education is expensive. Result: small families. And young women are sent to the cities to earn cash.”

“As millions of men (in Russia) replaced food with alcohol, The WHO estimated that a third of all recorded deaths in Russia were from alcohol poisoning, alcohol-related diseases such as heart disease, or poor nutrition. Accidents and suicides also soared.” (On why Russia is “Europe’s sickest country)

[Jonathan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Fred Pearce's "The Coming Population Crash" traces the history of Malthusian concerns about runaway population growth, both through the origins in Malthus and in the mid-20th-century concern about global population.

In Malthus's famous work, he noted only three possible checks on population: virtue (abstinence and later pregnancy), vice (which he used to refer to abortion, homosexuality, prostitution, and other things frowned upon by the Church), and misery (famine, war, disease, etc.). He thought misery was the most likely of the three.

But although we have had our share of misery since, we have also seen the rise of family planning, economic development, changing gender norms, and other steps that have led people to have fewer children than they had before. Many of these social changes had just as much of an impact (if not even greater of one) than authoritarian efforts to control population through coercive sterilization, "one child" policies, etc.

Although Pearce acknowledges that the overhang of melancholy that can characterize some places that have been shrinking in population, he makes quite clear that we should not feel a slower -- or even declining -- birth rate as a danger to be avoided and that, instead, we should welcome it and the aging population that will result.

Pearce has a very accessible writing style, and the book traverses geography as it discusses various questions that have concerned demographers over the years. I would have liked more discussion about policy responses to the population-shrinking world he foretells, but I got plenty of food for thought from reading it.

[Lee McKerracher · Rating 3 out of 5]

Being written in 2010, the numbers quoted in the book and some of its predictions are out of date. However, Fred Pearce does pose a number of questions that are still relevant today.

With an ever-increasing population, how do we equitably share our resources to ensure that we can feed, clothe and provide shelter to all? He examines a number of historical events that have impacted the world's population and its distribution including natural disasters, wars, immigration and those seeking refugee status and asylum. He also explores human trafficking.

One area that had a small mention but now thirteen years later, is growing in its impact is climate. Many more countries are now realising the threat they are under, whether it be rising tides, lower food production, fires or floods. Climate refugees will be an ever-increasing group of people seeking help but how will the world respond?

Will we continue to close borders and demonise those looking for help? Or will we open our hearts and minds, to look for solutions? There are enough resources on the planet to feed, clothe, house and provide medical care and education to all, it's how we use our collective energies to deliver this that will cause the issues. Working together seems to be a problem for those who inhabit this planet.

[Enzo Miguel De Borja · Rating 5 out of 5]

"Demographics can too often be a handmaiden for the politics of fear."

Studying closely the dynamics of population growth, structure, and composition can yield useful insights that has the potential to better the lives of people from every walk of life. However, the dark side of the origins of demography must always be kept in mind lest the best intentions of its practitioners become fodder for fear, fury, hate, hypocrisy, and vitriol. This book provided an excellent introduction to demography's connection to Malthus, the Eugenicists, and other infamous groups and figures throughout history whose political and social beliefs I deem questionable and despicable.

On the other hand, I relate to the author's clear-eyed assessment of the risks facing the world and the opportunities that lie ahead. Pearce reminded me why I began falling in love with demography: It can be related to every single aspect of life (migration, economics, urban living, family, education, infrastructure... I could go on and on) and contribute indispensable lessons that can prove decisive in determining humanity's future.

As the book was published 15 years ago, many details need updating. Nevertheless, it is still a fine read.

[David · Rating 5 out of 5]

the reason we call urban myth or one looks at how a history event was passed down, extra sensationalism were often added, so the history changes as time goes by..one such myth is population explosion started by Malthus..then it does not stop...Author has been using a lot of data in many countries to prove that not only population does not grow, rather, as we often talks about: population is in severe decline: Japan, India, Sri Lanka, EU zones..despite the fact that population growth has been controlled via political and cultural means..this book is a wake up call to all of us as modern observer to realize what is wrong with the headline "population growth in severe decline" vs old urban myth... (people have no food to eat due to war and severe mis-allocation of food supply; nothing to do with how many people on this planet)

[Martin · Rating 5 out of 5]

This whole book, nay, every chapter, nay, every page, nay, every paragraph is not just a massive education, but a gargantuan re-education.

It's not all just illuminating, but I felt re-illuminated from scratch.

Proof of the truth of this book, in the face of doomsayers that dominate attention more than they should, is that more books of recent vintage have surfaced to bear out his larger point, and he was way, way ahead of the game.

Look around you. Cities are shrinking, ghost towns are now everywhere instead of relics. Now gee, why is that? And why don't we have to worry about an overpopulated world?

Baked in through the narrative is a positivity that we can handle the future, if we want. I like that. It's also the truth.

[Evelyn · Rating 4 out of 5]

Fred Pearce's Peoplequake is a fascinating and thoroughly researched book that tackles the ever-popular and political topic of migration and overpopulation. Delving deep into the history of demography, Peoplequake offers up a wealth of insight into the various debates and covers every single thought process of the arguments for and against.

Whilst books like this can be all 'doom and gloom', or even border onto racism/xenophobia, Pearce's writing never strays into these territories, and instead provides facts and statistics, as well as in depth case studies with real people to bring the human element back into the picture. Brilliantly planned out with the backing of both the science of demography, as well as compassion and optimism.

[Monzenn · Rating 4 out of 5]

I can appreciate the number of stories in the book, from perceptions of population rise to key figures. The section on eugenics is as powerful as I expected, and the breadth of stories around the world is a nice touch. I suppose the only reason this doesn't give five stars for me is that it sometimes does what it purports not to do: romanticizing poverty, leaning towards the discredited Malthusian view. Still a good book overall

[Paul · Rating 4 out of 5]

A great book with possibly the best ‘Introduction’ I’ve ever read. Though it’s a little (11years) outdated now, much of it is as relevant as ever. I felt it didn’t quite deserve the 5th star as the pace and panache of the book dwindled in the final two sections.
Nonetheless will definitely recommend to my students.

[Hotrats · Rating 4 out of 5]

Scary either way. too much pop. = bad, too little = bad

[Karen · Rating 2 out of 5]

Still waiting to hear what this planet’s surprising future is because this book definitely draw anything close to a conclusion on the many, many statistics and anecdotes it dropped.

[Steve Charles · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very informative and shatters a lot of myths about population. Optimistic? Yes, but supported with cogent arguments and helpful examples and evidence.

[Logan · Rating 5 out of 5]

Deeply important to me.

[Rachel · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was a very interesting and informative book that discusses both the misconceptions surrounding population growth, the impacts that population growth has on an area and some of the different solutions to the problems. My major concern with the book was that is some places it was over simplistic. Population growth in some areas is down to 4 or 5 interlinked things rather than just one, and while governments are actively (in some cases) trying to alleviate problems such as access to contraception that are being overly naïve about others. Poverty is the main reason for population growth and this will have huge implications, and also one of the most difficult to solve. While the developed world keeps demanding things such as debt repayment and actively exploiting resources from these nations then they will never be able to reduce poverty growth.

There was some mention of the world as an ecosystem and the fact it will eventually right itself and reduce population in its own way and made links to people such as Malthus and Lovelock, but the ways in which the chapters were broken down meant it was quite difficult to develop some of the ideas and made some of them seem very simple and easy to solve.

However, the points were very clear and easily understandable (if not a bit extremist and pessimistic in places), and it is a good introduction to some of the world’s problems with adequate additional reading sources to develop understanding further if you choose to. However, it did read like a GCSE/A Level geography textbook in places.

[Tim · Rating 4 out of 5]

Are we outbreeding the ability of of earth to support us all? Was Malthus's vision of a civilisation-ending catastrophe driven by overpopulation, if somewhat delayed, truly what awaits us? There are plenty who fear so. But Fred Pearce takes a different view, and it's not based on wishful thinking or optimism in spite of the evidence, but on the facts about demographic changes that are already taking place in many parts of the world. For in the long term we face a shrinking population and the real challenge will be working out how to live in a world where young people are a rarity. The book starts out covering the murky history of concerns over growing population, a history often mired in racism and elitism (also, FYI, Malthus was a complete bastard). It then moves on to the horrors of attempts to control reproduction by coercion. But as Pearce shows in later chapters, the evidence of how fertility rates inevitably fall is clear. World population may be growing and could reach 10 or 11 billion, but after that peak, numbers will inevitably fall and the crisis will be how to restructure societies in which young people are a small proportion of the population. That's not to deny the peak in human numbers will not present a very serious challenge. But the action we need to take is not to obsess about birth rates, but to curb our excessive consumption so we can get through that peak without stripping our planet bare.

[Kate · Rating 4 out of 5]

I really liked most of this book. It's an interesting analysis of racism, eugenics in many forms, foreign aid and women's liberation. I really liked his idea that the current global falls in birthrate are due to 'incomplete' female liberation, where women are free to choose between child rearing, work and other pursuits but society, religion and government are still mostly following the old patriarchal ways.

He lost a star in the final chapters though with his rosy eyed discription of the 'silver bulge' of the ageing population. The elderly, from my experience, are not less consumer driven, more thoughtful and calmer. Quite the opposite. The world has always been run by the older demographic for decades and look where it's gotten us...

[Scot McAtee · Rating 4 out of 5]

Call me a Malthusian, but who isn't a little Malthusian at the core? It's difficult to maintain optimism when all we hear about is how badly we humans are trashing the planet and how quickly we're spreading. Based on some of the horror stories I hear from the people I deal with on a daily basis, it's hard to believe that the majority of the population even cares about the state of the planet.

I like the optimism of this book and if Pearce's research is accurate, then all that baloney I hear about eradicating poverty to save the Earth might just be the ticket.

This is definitely an interesting read for anyone who likes material like this. I know I do.

[Lindsey · Rating 4 out of 5]

Only three stars because while I agree with the general premise, that population doomsayers are wrong (as well as mostly elitist and occasionally racist), Pearce is so unwaveringly optimistic it is hard to swallow. Also, there are not notes of any kind, only a casual listing of sources at the end, which dampens the credibility. I also wish he had laid out his hypothesis in the beginning. He just lays out facts and lets you do the analysis, so I didn't feel like I had a true understanding of his overall vision until I read some of his interviews.

[Jane · Rating 2 out of 5]

I had never thought about a lot of the topics this book discusses. The historical parts were interesting. I realize now how political population concerns can be. Your political take on what the world needs can really colour what should be done.

I also had no idea that Planned Parenthood had such disreputable, racist and classist beginnings. Naive me thought it was all about how children who were planned came into better lives.

Favourite quote in the book: "There is enough for everyone's need, but not for everyone's greed" - Mahatma Gandhi.

[Leanne · Rating 5 out of 5]

I read this and rated it five stars years ago when it first came out. I've just re-read it now and forgot what a great book it is. I'd definitely still rate it five stars and I think I even enjoyed it more now and could make so many more connections throughout the book than I could back in the olden days of 2010 or whenever it was. Only thing I wish it had as an extra would be a couple of appendices on global populations and fertility rates. I spent quite a lot of time googling along in companion to reading. Ha ha.