World Dynamics

by Jay Wright Forrester

World Dynamics represents a call to arms against this futility. It shows the opportunity for bringing the world of man into equilibrium with the forces of his environment while there still remains time and maneuvering room. Man throughout history has focused on growth growth in population, standard of living, and geographical boundaries. But in the fixed space of the world, growth must in time give way to equilibrium. Malthus had postulated food supply as the ultimate limiting factor, but Professor Forrester suggests that pollution, crowding, and depletion of resources can play equally critical roles. Industrialization may be a more fundamental threat than population. Due to limitations of the environment, the entire world may not be able to rise to the standard of living that has been set as an example by the industrialized countries. Goals and aspirations of all countries must be drastically readjusted as growth and expansion give way to world equilibrium. The book is the first step towards adapting the principles of System Dynamics to the behavior of the forces involved in the transition from growth to world equilibrium. A stable enduring world equilibrium may require a combination of social, economic, and technical changes that include such counterintuitive policies as reducing the present emphasis on food production and industrialization Since its publication, the book has received world-wide notice and has catalyzed debate over the necessity of achieving world equilibrium. In this second edition, an additional chapter discusses the importance of social limits to growth. Author: Jay W. Forrester 1973 (Originally published in 1971).

Genres: Nonfiction

Hardcover

First published January 1, 1971

Reviews

[Anthony · Rating 3 out of 5]

Forrester's book-length explanation of his World2 model that would later be scaled-up by the Limits to Growth group (Meadows, Meadows, and Randers) as World3. Forrester's model is relatively simply, employing some half-dozen levels, including population, pollution and capital investment, but serves the purpose of using system dynamics as a technique to forecast how physical limits will shape the world's socio-economic growth projections. The greatest conclusion Forrester leaves his readers with is that though there is wide agreement for which leverage points in a system are most effective in shaping system behavior, to attain a specific system outcome often require shifting that leverage point in the counterintuitive direction. For example, commonsense would suggest that population control policies would delay the point when the global system reaches its limits, but his model indicates that such policies are effective only in the short run. In time, support for continuing these policies lessens under the belief that a sufficient effort has been made. Other influences such as capital growth, material standard of living, and food availability overrun any short-term gains made by these policies and the system is back on track to slam against physical limits once again.

[Dmitry Borisoglebsky · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book details World2, a dynamic computer simulation model of the world developed in the early 1970s. Its premise is that intuition is unreliable for predicting system intervention consequences; only adequate dynamic analysis can reveal the impact of policy changes.

The model is built upon five interacting levels: population, capital investment, natural resources, fraction of capital devoted to agriculture, and pollution. The model indicates the direction of behavior change resulting from alterations in system structure and policies, not exact forecasts. Unlimited growth cannot continue indefinitely in a constrained system. The question is when and how growth will cease, not if it will.

High population density is only possible through industrialization. The model contains four inherent forces capable of limiting population: resource depletion, pollution increase, crowding, and food decline. Unless consciously guided, the social system's internal mechanisms will undesirably terminate exponential growth for us. Experiments showed that a state of equilibrium is conceptually possible. Impending changes threaten modern social values. Civilization must be restrained rather than expanded.