На изчерпване

by Jeremy Leggett

Задълбочавайки в кошмарния сценарий на слепия поход на човечеството към глобална катастрофа, тази книга фокусира вниманието върху две взаимосвързани опасности: нефтът ще свърши много по-бързо, отколкото си мислим, и изгарянето на това, което е останало от него, ще затопли планетата ни до катастрофални нива.

Авторът събира различните аспекти на проблема и представя ясни изводи. Малко са хората, които могат да се похвалят с толкова всеобхватен поглед по темата. Минал през поприщата на геологията, нефтеното консултиране, Грийнпийс, където работи като главен научен съветник, Джереми Легет, в момента директор на най-голямата компания за соларна енергия във Великобритания, е ангажиран с въпроса от години и богатството на информацията от кухнята, което ни предлага е изключително.

Genres: Nonfiction, Science, Economics, Peak Oil, Politics, Society, Environment

354 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 2005

About the author

Dr. Jeremy Leggett is an expert on renewable power, energy policy and climate change. He worked as an oil geologist before become an environmental campaigner for Greenpeace. A prominent commentator around the world, Jeremy is executive chairman of the UK’s leading solar company, founding director of the world’s first private equity fund for renewable energy, and author of Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis (titled Empty Tankin the US).

He is founder and CEO of Highlands Rewilding.

Reviews

[Antonio Vena · Rating 4 out of 5]

Scorrevole, divulgativo, evita il catastrofismo classico della tema "peak oil" e mette in relazione la transizione energetica, il mercato dei capitali e il cambiamento climatico in maniera chiara e diretta.

[David · Rating 2 out of 5]

Jeremy Leggett has written a book about peak oil and about climate change. From the appearence of the swedish version I thought peak oil would be the main subject, but it has to share the attention with climate change. Which was disappointing in one way for me, since I read it because of my interest in peak oil theory, but enlightening because it allows a comparison between Leggett's case for peak oil and his case for global warming.

The first part of the book is about peak oil and how it soon will hit. Being a geologist who previously worked for oil companies Leggett is both knowledgable about oil in nature and some of the inner workings of "big oil". He tries to show that the amount of oil still available for drilling is way lower than official statements and reports would have you believe and that when we hit the peak oil wall this will lead to severe disruption and depression of the economy. In his case he cites a lot of people speaking in news papers or at conferences.
The second part of the book is about climate change and which effects it will have on societies. Written quite early, in 2005, he can still make a good case for a global warming and to some extent how this will affect humanity. Since 2005 our knowledge of climate change has of course expanded and it feels a bit dated.
It is interesting to compare the two parts since they appeared quite different to me. While discussion climate change he leans a lot on big offical reports like the IPCC reports and is able to show how does who disagree in the scientific community is a small, but very vocal, minority. This minority uses tactics as claiming scientists are compromised in some way, that the science is unclear at best and that those scientists believing in climate change really aren't that many. In the discussion of peak oil Leggett instead has to try to shot down official statistics and reports, claiming everyone involved is compromised and that while many in the industry put up a "brave face" outwards, they are all really convinced the oil production will peak very soon. He can't really cite any official statistic and instead the part is built up around quotes from a lot of different people. That is the impression I got and I hope you can see why I find his case for global warming much stronger than for peak oil in the near future. To his credit he has a lot of references in the book, but I find his references for climate change more convincing than his references for peak oil.

The book is now over a decade old as it was written in 2005. In the book Leggett makes a bold prediction that peak oil will hit before the decade is over, that is before 2010. I think he should get credit for making such a clear and concise claim which can be falsified. With that said, the prediction was obviously wrong. We have yet to experience peak oil and it is now 2018. (I guess some people might argue peak oil had something to do with the great recession 2008 and forward, but I have a hard time seeing that argument made succesfully.)

I do appreciate his discussion about alternatives to oil and coal. But it is quite aged and I think you can find more up to date information on that. Some things he got right and some things he got wrong. Solar and wind is obviously becoming an more important part of our energy/electricity production, but we haven't seen a break through for, for example, hydrogen cars.

His style of writing is certainly passable, but nothing worth of note. It is written in a very accessible way and Leggett doesn't make it any harder than it has to be. He probably should have skipped his attempt to give a more literary quality to the book in his first and last chapter which is a story about a blue pearl (Earth) and thinkers (humans) living on it.

As a summary I think the book hasn't aged well and you can find better resources for climate change and renewable energies. His case for a near future peak oil is quite weak in my opinion and history has proven him wrong.

[Shane · Rating 4 out of 5]

For those of you concerned about recent gas prices, first off there are more important things you should worry about (I.E. Genocide, starving people, homeless), but anyway, this book should give you a good idea as to why we are in the situation we are. Easy read.

[David Lankshear · Rating 4 out of 5]

Another peak oil book - but at least this one had some optimism about where technology could go - even if the author was concerned it might not get there in time to prevent awful economic hardships either as a result of peak oil if there wasn't enough oil, or as a result of climate change if there was too much.

[Max Vertrauen · Rating 2 out of 5]

Considering that his predictions failed, I cannot give a good rating for this book. His theory was interesting but today it feels like a weak apocalyptic movie from Hollywood.

[Dan · Rating 3 out of 5]

As Al Gore so poignantly said in "An Inconvenient Truth," we so often go from denial to despair without doing anything in between. This is how I feel while reading most environmental books. Jeremy Leggett's new book, "Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis" while depressing about the state of the world, offers significant hope if, like most things, the political will can be found.The introductory chapter is written as a Daniel Quinn-like parable, but in an enjoyable and ironic Douglas Adams style, and clear like a Stephen J. Gould essay. The majority of the book deals with the question of peak oil, and the debate between "early peakers" and "late peakers." It goes without saying that oil will run out sooner or later, and one does not need a book about this. However, if you want to know the science and economics behind the forecasts and the debate, then this is an excellent book to give you a grounding. When I read about the peak oil debate, my first reaction is "Good!, let the oil run out tomorrow, then maybe people will finally tackle renewable energy and energy conservation seriously." But then I start thinking about my gortex jacket, shoes, oven cleaner, plastic water pipes, and a million other things I use every day made from oil products.

Leggett presents five premises:
1. It will be possible to replace oil, gas and coal completely with a plentiful supply of renewable energy, and faster than most people think.
2. The shortfall between current expectation of oil supply and available of oil and other sources of energy will not be able to plug the gap in time to prevent economic and environmental trauma.
3. Renewable energy, along with energy efficiency will increasingly substitute oil and gas, growing explosively.
4. The ruins of the old energy modus operandi will try to turn to coal, the outcome of which will ultimately determine if economies and ecosystems will survive the global warming threat.
5. There is much that people can do to influence a the use of renewables, and ameliorate the worst excesses of the global energy crisis.

It is not a question of when oil production will peak and decline, but instead, what happens then. The world may leap to coal or nuclear, even worse options. If we burn most of the remaining oil, or even a fraction of the coal, it will
destroy our economies and environment. However, there are viable and quick solutions recognised even by the some of the world's worst polluters.

Shell's scenario planners in 2001 declared that renewables have the potential to provide power to a world of 10 billion people with ease, even if per capita use increases. If only 600 km2 of the Sahara desert are covered with PV cells, it would match all existing power station production worldwide. The wind-power potential of Texas, N. Dakota and Kansas is enough to meet the energy demand of the entire US. All of non-electrified sub-Saharan Africa could be provided with small-scale solar for less than 70% of what OECD countries spend on subsidies to the fossil fuel industries annually (Annual government subsidies to gas, oil and coal companies is over 235 billion USD!). The UK town of Woking has cut its CO2 emissions 77% since 1990.

In 2005, a ship traveled to the North Pole for the first time without the aid of an ice breaker - time is short, but it is not impossible. Help your friends and loved-ones, and the planet, by giving smart. Give them a certificate that no gifts are necessary. Or if you really feel the need, insulate their windows and doors and pipes; give them energy efficient light bulbs; A+ energy and water efficiency appliances; and extension cords with a master off switch (these days many appliances do not even come with an off button).

[Христо Блажев · Rating 3 out of 5]

Нефтът и газът са "На изчерпване" според Джереми Легет
http://www.knigolandia.info/2010/06/b...

Не първата и не последната катастрофична книга, посветена на предполагаемото изчерпване на енергийните източници на цивилизацията ни и по-специално нефта. Все пак имах едно голяяяямо наум, докато я четях, тъй като Легет е шеф на най-голямата британска соларна компания и има голяма полза от подобни писания. През живота си е бил и в двете крайности - консултант на нефтени компании и после член на "Грийнпийс", борец срещу довчерашните си работодатели.
Съдържанието на книгата е пределно ясно, като краските са от черни по-черни. Легет предвижда, че в следващото десетилетие добивите на нефт ще намалеят значително, което ще качи цената му до небесата. Част от книгата е посветена на глобалното затопляне, сипят се купища цифри, в които е по-вероятно да се удавите, отколкото в покачващите се океани.

[lyle · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is one of the better peak-oil books. Leggett has a broader perspective and is concerned about climate change and certain cultural issues as well as peak oil. He envisions a rush to use coal to make up for a petroleum shortfall and spends some time on how that is likely to play out. He is also a bit more optimistic than some other authors. Although he predicts a global depression (optimists in this territory see only a depression) due to a faltering energy supply, he suggests that this will result in stabilization of the population and a sustainable culture.

[Bulgarian School of Politics · Rating 5 out of 5]

Малко са хората, които могат да се похвалят с толкова всеобхватен поглед по темата за енергийното бъдеще на света. Минал през поприщата на геологията, нефтеното консултиране, Грийнпийс, където работи като главен научен съветник, Джереми Легет, в момента директор на най-голямата компания за соларна енергия във Великобритания, е ангажиран с въпроса от години и богатството на информацията от кухнята, което ни предлага е изключително.

Можете да купите тази книга от книжарницата на Мобилис - http://www.mobilis.bg/articles/view/5...

[Martinxo · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a very important book, required reading for anyone who cares about the world, their own existence, the existence of their family, friends and everyone else.

The challenges of Peak Oil are going to affect us all, potentially in a very dramatic way, rising petrol prices are only the start!

If we're going to have any chance at all then we need to get organised, go see http://www.transitiontowns.org/ for ideas and inspiration.

[Marc Braun · Rating 5 out of 5]

Few books have caused more personal anxiety to me than this particular one at the time. The scenario painted of growing demand and declining oil supply were truly terrifying to me. It's been a while since i read this book and it would be interesting to me to see how much of the predictions have come true so far. All I remember about the book is how scared it made me feel for the world and where it's heading when I read it.

[Stuart McMillen · Rating 2 out of 5]

Pro: I agree with the facts underpinning this book.

Con: The book is poorly written - becoming unreadable in parts.

A particular lowlight is the chapters about "The Tale of the Blue Pearl". Essentially a fairytale about a mythical planet ("The Blue Pearl") and some creatures ("The Thinkers") who use and abuse the resources on their planet. Yawn.

[Jp · Rating 3 out of 5]

When a geologist with insider knowledge says we've past peak oil, maybe we should listen. Possibly its another conspiracy by big oil to keep us plugging away with status quo. A good read from a credible author.

[Peter · Rating 5 out of 5]

An easy read that looks at oil, gas, scarcity, global warming and ecosystem collapse. Not very optimistic. Interesting focus was on coral reefs, and the dangers of ocean acidification.

[Robin · Rating 1 out of 5]

Terrible mish-mash. Hardly about peak oil at all; much more about climate change.

[Varunkumar · Rating 3 out of 5]

Nice book to enrich the knowledge of OIL politics

[MatthewDollery · Rating 4 out of 5]

An adequate overview. A little outdated now