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White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan
This book "is entertaining, thought-provoking and quite possibly prescient. Not just an engaging tale but a warning of things to come." ― Eliot A. Cohen, Johns Hopkins SAIS
After decades of poising on the brink, the United States and China finally go to war when China invades the island of Taiwan. Deploying their most futuristic technologies in this grand strategic competition of the 21st century, the stakes could not be higher. Not only the future of the Taiwanese people but the fate of the world lies in the balance.
In an era when humans no longer just use machines, but partner with them in all aspects of military operations, this fictional account views this future war through the eyes of the American, Chinese, and Taiwanese caught up in the maelstrom, revealing the heartbreak, courage, leadership, and despair of high-tech warfare played out on land, at sea, in space, and in cyberspace.
White Sun War asks readers to ponder anew an essential question for the future of security in western Pacific and the entire Indo-Pacific is a war for Taiwan winnable?
Table of Contents
Author's Introduction
Preliminary Operations
The Massacre
Phase I
1 Flood and Fire
2 Knife in a Space Fight
3 The Successors Dilemma
4 Lethal in the Littoral
5 Stormfront Approaching
6 Grey Wizard
7 Overall Defense Concept
8 The Beetles
9 Tiger of the Land, Dragon of the Sea
Phase II
10 What Happens in Nevada…
11 The Butchers Bill
12 Retreat, Hell
13 Adaptation Battle
14 The High Ground
15 Break In
16 Resolve
17 Courage and Wisdom
18 Remote War
Phase III
19 Save Our Dream
20 New Strategy, Old Strategy
21 Transition
22 Monsoon
23 The City
24 The Pledge
25 Battle for Taichung
26 Battle for Taichung II
27 Mors Honesta
28 Morakot the Second
29 The Bitter Plain
After decades of poising on the brink, the United States and China finally go to war when China invades the island of Taiwan. Deploying their most futuristic technologies in this grand strategic competition of the 21st century, the stakes could not be higher. Not only the future of the Taiwanese people but the fate of the world lies in the balance.
In an era when humans no longer just use machines, but partner with them in all aspects of military operations, this fictional account views this future war through the eyes of the American, Chinese, and Taiwanese caught up in the maelstrom, revealing the heartbreak, courage, leadership, and despair of high-tech warfare played out on land, at sea, in space, and in cyberspace.
White Sun War asks readers to ponder anew an essential question for the future of security in western Pacific and the entire Indo-Pacific is a war for Taiwan winnable?
Table of Contents
Author's Introduction
Preliminary Operations
The Massacre
Phase I
1 Flood and Fire
2 Knife in a Space Fight
3 The Successors Dilemma
4 Lethal in the Littoral
5 Stormfront Approaching
6 Grey Wizard
7 Overall Defense Concept
8 The Beetles
9 Tiger of the Land, Dragon of the Sea
Phase II
10 What Happens in Nevada…
11 The Butchers Bill
12 Retreat, Hell
13 Adaptation Battle
14 The High Ground
15 Break In
16 Resolve
17 Courage and Wisdom
18 Remote War
Phase III
19 Save Our Dream
20 New Strategy, Old Strategy
21 Transition
22 Monsoon
23 The City
24 The Pledge
25 Battle for Taichung
26 Battle for Taichung II
27 Mors Honesta
28 Morakot the Second
29 The Bitter Plain
352 pages, Paperback
First published May 4, 2023
199 people are currently reading
1226 people want to read
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December 20, 2023
A thought provoking book to book end my study of the Pacific War in WW2. After reading on this topic, I was curious to see what a scenario for a war in the Pacific might look like today in the 21st Century between two of the most likely combatants, the US and China, at one of the most likely flashpoints, Taiwan.
The book is written in the style of a novel such that it tells the story in such a way that the average reader without having a prior military background can understand how the latest developments in military technology and strategy might play out in a war between China and the Allies over Taiwan. By the Allies, I mean the US, Japan, Taiwan, and Australia --- the author, himself a retired Aussie major general, foresees these four nations working together in event of Chinese invasion [although the Chinese would term it "liberation"] of Taiwan.
While I will try to avoid giving away the plot, I will comment on some things about it that stood out to me. For starters, this book incorporates much of developments we are now seeing in UAV / UGV technology in the present Russo-Ukrainian War, and projects how this would look. Both China and the US have now in 2028 incorporated unmanned AI tech in a way far beyond today or even that practiced in the Ukraine War. The result is one both fascinating and terrifying. A war with unmanned systems making lightning quick -- in microseconds --- decisions to engage, attack, and kill. In this war, for ground forces, any headquarters for any unit cannot remain in place for much longer than only a few hours, at best, or face annihilation by the other side. It's a war lightning fast, terrifyingly quick --- one in which a moment's error in failing to practice proper EMCON (emissions control) can result in some system identifying entire units and destroying them within minutes.
Another thing ---- the role of space in future warfare, particularly in a Taiwan War scenario --- much greater than anything in any previous major war in history. Yes, much laughter and ridicule ensued when the US separated its space units from the US Air Force and other service branches to establish Space Force (I believe, Netflix even made a comedy series "Space Force" on it) --- and, as a retired Coast Guardsman, I drew some satisfaction from knowing that the Coast Guard was no longer the smallest service branch. Yet, space warfare is as far apart from air warfare today --- justifying separating Space Force from the Air Force --- as almost 80 year ago was air warfare from ground warfare --- then justifying separating the Army Air Force into the US Air Force. While I dimly had some awareness that military space ops must have some major reason to justify Space Force --- this book, based upon the realistic scenarios involving a war between two of the major players in space, makes this justification crystal clear. Absolutely fascinating how war in space might look by the end of this decade --- although let us all hope this never happens.
Information warfare and cyberwarfare also play major roles in this hypothetical war with as decisive a role as the actual use of conventional weapons.
The majority of the book, however, tells the story from the point of view of soldiers and Marines from both sides in combat on the ground in Taiwan. There a number of premises underlying that scenario:
1) that the US has enough advanced intel such that it could land enough ground forces on Taiwan to contest PLA (Chinese People's Liberation Army) forces on Taiwan.
2) that the US has a President with the guts and intuition to make the tough decision to authorize advance landings of US ground forces in Taiwan.
3) that the US and Japan have the naval and air wars well in hand such that an even contest on the ground in Taiwan is even possible between the Allies and the PLA.
4) that Japan is willing and able to involve itself in a war over Taiwan.
5) interestingly, given that the author is Australian, Australia's initial involvement in the war is weak due to Australians' long term neglect of the Royal Australian Navy --- that, only after weeks of combat, is Australia able to contribute anything to the war effort --- assuming its leaders were willing to do so.
Perhaps, because he is a soldier, the author tells this story from that point of view which is one he's most familiar, that of ground forces. However, when I was looking at this problem over 15 years ago while taking Naval War College classes, my impression then is that, in the beginning at least, in a Taiwan war scenario, there will likely not be enough warning to amass significant ground forces in Taiwan --- other than Taiwan's own resources on the ground. My impression is that, for US and other ground forces to even hope to get as far as shown in this book that it will open predominantly a Navy and Air Force game ---- without air and sea around Taiwan more or less under control, there will no be no way to even begin a ground game there. And, because China would likely have the initiative in the beginning --- and concentration locally around Taiwan of air and naval forces --- while America's are committed elsewhere worldwide, this will likely mean China in the first weeks, at least, having some local superiority. The book acknowledges US naval and air casualties, but thinks that, in the end, the US will hold its own against the PLA. I'm not so sure --- my hunch is that it's likely the US stand to lose an aircraft carrier, a lot of surface combatants, and even some submarines. Hopefully, we'll never have to find out for real --- hopefully, smarter minds in both the US and China will find a better way other than war.
With that in mind, I would have liked to have seen story with scenarios involving more naval and air force units from both sides, since I believe initially this will involve some of the most intense combat in the Pacific since WW2 from these components. Also, seeing more views of the War from the Taiwanese and Chinese lower level ground soldiers would have been interesting to read --- how they see this war, how they fight.
Having said that, this is an excellent book --- a thought provoking book. Writing hypothetical future war scenarios between likely combatants today is a difficult undertaking, one likely to provoke much criticism all around, so I commend Mick Ryan for being the first one with the courage to make an effort at writing such a scenario for the public to think about. Yes, of course, let's all hope that China and the US never come to blows. Nevertheless, the stakes are high, and, if war must come, then, as an American, I do hope my country's national security decision makers and politicians are also thinking of such scenarios and such that a deterrent effect to that war is created.
The book is written in the style of a novel such that it tells the story in such a way that the average reader without having a prior military background can understand how the latest developments in military technology and strategy might play out in a war between China and the Allies over Taiwan. By the Allies, I mean the US, Japan, Taiwan, and Australia --- the author, himself a retired Aussie major general, foresees these four nations working together in event of Chinese invasion [although the Chinese would term it "liberation"] of Taiwan.
While I will try to avoid giving away the plot, I will comment on some things about it that stood out to me. For starters, this book incorporates much of developments we are now seeing in UAV / UGV technology in the present Russo-Ukrainian War, and projects how this would look. Both China and the US have now in 2028 incorporated unmanned AI tech in a way far beyond today or even that practiced in the Ukraine War. The result is one both fascinating and terrifying. A war with unmanned systems making lightning quick -- in microseconds --- decisions to engage, attack, and kill. In this war, for ground forces, any headquarters for any unit cannot remain in place for much longer than only a few hours, at best, or face annihilation by the other side. It's a war lightning fast, terrifyingly quick --- one in which a moment's error in failing to practice proper EMCON (emissions control) can result in some system identifying entire units and destroying them within minutes.
Another thing ---- the role of space in future warfare, particularly in a Taiwan War scenario --- much greater than anything in any previous major war in history. Yes, much laughter and ridicule ensued when the US separated its space units from the US Air Force and other service branches to establish Space Force (I believe, Netflix even made a comedy series "Space Force" on it) --- and, as a retired Coast Guardsman, I drew some satisfaction from knowing that the Coast Guard was no longer the smallest service branch. Yet, space warfare is as far apart from air warfare today --- justifying separating Space Force from the Air Force --- as almost 80 year ago was air warfare from ground warfare --- then justifying separating the Army Air Force into the US Air Force. While I dimly had some awareness that military space ops must have some major reason to justify Space Force --- this book, based upon the realistic scenarios involving a war between two of the major players in space, makes this justification crystal clear. Absolutely fascinating how war in space might look by the end of this decade --- although let us all hope this never happens.
Information warfare and cyberwarfare also play major roles in this hypothetical war with as decisive a role as the actual use of conventional weapons.
The majority of the book, however, tells the story from the point of view of soldiers and Marines from both sides in combat on the ground in Taiwan. There a number of premises underlying that scenario:
1) that the US has enough advanced intel such that it could land enough ground forces on Taiwan to contest PLA (Chinese People's Liberation Army) forces on Taiwan.
2) that the US has a President with the guts and intuition to make the tough decision to authorize advance landings of US ground forces in Taiwan.
3) that the US and Japan have the naval and air wars well in hand such that an even contest on the ground in Taiwan is even possible between the Allies and the PLA.
4) that Japan is willing and able to involve itself in a war over Taiwan.
5) interestingly, given that the author is Australian, Australia's initial involvement in the war is weak due to Australians' long term neglect of the Royal Australian Navy --- that, only after weeks of combat, is Australia able to contribute anything to the war effort --- assuming its leaders were willing to do so.
Perhaps, because he is a soldier, the author tells this story from that point of view which is one he's most familiar, that of ground forces. However, when I was looking at this problem over 15 years ago while taking Naval War College classes, my impression then is that, in the beginning at least, in a Taiwan war scenario, there will likely not be enough warning to amass significant ground forces in Taiwan --- other than Taiwan's own resources on the ground. My impression is that, for US and other ground forces to even hope to get as far as shown in this book that it will open predominantly a Navy and Air Force game ---- without air and sea around Taiwan more or less under control, there will no be no way to even begin a ground game there. And, because China would likely have the initiative in the beginning --- and concentration locally around Taiwan of air and naval forces --- while America's are committed elsewhere worldwide, this will likely mean China in the first weeks, at least, having some local superiority. The book acknowledges US naval and air casualties, but thinks that, in the end, the US will hold its own against the PLA. I'm not so sure --- my hunch is that it's likely the US stand to lose an aircraft carrier, a lot of surface combatants, and even some submarines. Hopefully, we'll never have to find out for real --- hopefully, smarter minds in both the US and China will find a better way other than war.
With that in mind, I would have liked to have seen story with scenarios involving more naval and air force units from both sides, since I believe initially this will involve some of the most intense combat in the Pacific since WW2 from these components. Also, seeing more views of the War from the Taiwanese and Chinese lower level ground soldiers would have been interesting to read --- how they see this war, how they fight.
Having said that, this is an excellent book --- a thought provoking book. Writing hypothetical future war scenarios between likely combatants today is a difficult undertaking, one likely to provoke much criticism all around, so I commend Mick Ryan for being the first one with the courage to make an effort at writing such a scenario for the public to think about. Yes, of course, let's all hope that China and the US never come to blows. Nevertheless, the stakes are high, and, if war must come, then, as an American, I do hope my country's national security decision makers and politicians are also thinking of such scenarios and such that a deterrent effect to that war is created.
August 6, 2023
White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan by Mick Ryan.
Mick Ryan is a strategist and retired Major General from the Australian Army. The book states he is also a graduate of Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies as well as the USMC Command and Staff College and USMC School of Advanced Warfare. Finally, he commanded in Iraq, Afghanistan and East Timor and his career spanned 35 years.
This book is set in the near future where China invades Taiwan in an attempt to incorporate it back into their country. The US, and major allies like Australia and Japan assist the Taiwanese armed forces in dislodging and defending the island nation.
I have no military experience, but as a fan of this genre (near future military thrillers) I enjoyed it from a layman’s viewpoint. The action nicely jumps between the battlefields to the command posts like US’ Space Force and Beijing.
The new tech that the author introduced into his world comes from a logical leap from the current Ukraine/Russian war and their use of drones. But he raises the stakes with a wider and broader use of them and autonomous vehicles. But at no time do they become wonder weapons. How he describes and has his characters using them felt right to me without introducing a jarring twist in how the conflict played out.
An enjoyable read that also incorporated a bit of warning of what may occur in the next decade or two. A nice solid work.
Mick Ryan is a strategist and retired Major General from the Australian Army. The book states he is also a graduate of Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies as well as the USMC Command and Staff College and USMC School of Advanced Warfare. Finally, he commanded in Iraq, Afghanistan and East Timor and his career spanned 35 years.
This book is set in the near future where China invades Taiwan in an attempt to incorporate it back into their country. The US, and major allies like Australia and Japan assist the Taiwanese armed forces in dislodging and defending the island nation.
I have no military experience, but as a fan of this genre (near future military thrillers) I enjoyed it from a layman’s viewpoint. The action nicely jumps between the battlefields to the command posts like US’ Space Force and Beijing.
The new tech that the author introduced into his world comes from a logical leap from the current Ukraine/Russian war and their use of drones. But he raises the stakes with a wider and broader use of them and autonomous vehicles. But at no time do they become wonder weapons. How he describes and has his characters using them felt right to me without introducing a jarring twist in how the conflict played out.
An enjoyable read that also incorporated a bit of warning of what may occur in the next decade or two. A nice solid work.
July 26, 2023
Much better than 2034 but still didn’t capture the brilliance of Clancy’s “Red Storm Rising.” He clearly focused on manned-unmanned teaming and space operations in his concept of future war. A fun read and a look at the future of conflict. Worth the read but not a genre-defining book like Clancy’s masterpiece
Want to read
May 9, 2023Here's the author at Scalzi's: https://whatever.scalzi.com/2023/05/0...
Excerpt:
"... the heart of this story is not technology. It is people. Drawn from a variety of occupations and nations, “White Sun War” explores normal, everyday Americans, Taiwanese and Chinese characters who find themselves in a bitter struggle for the island of Taiwan, and how they deal with the terrors and opportunities of war. Each has different motivations, as well as character strengths and weaknesses.
Because ultimately, war is a human endeavour. It can only be understood when viewed through the eyes of the human belligerents, whether they be politicians in capitals, citizens on the home front or military personnel serving on the front line. It is humans who decide to war, who fight them on the ground, air, sea and cyberspace, and it is ultimately humans who decide when it is time to terminate a conflict.
My hope is that all who read “White Sun War” will find an old soldier’s description of future war too catastrophic to contemplate. That is a good thing. ..."
Excerpt:
"... the heart of this story is not technology. It is people. Drawn from a variety of occupations and nations, “White Sun War” explores normal, everyday Americans, Taiwanese and Chinese characters who find themselves in a bitter struggle for the island of Taiwan, and how they deal with the terrors and opportunities of war. Each has different motivations, as well as character strengths and weaknesses.
Because ultimately, war is a human endeavour. It can only be understood when viewed through the eyes of the human belligerents, whether they be politicians in capitals, citizens on the home front or military personnel serving on the front line. It is humans who decide to war, who fight them on the ground, air, sea and cyberspace, and it is ultimately humans who decide when it is time to terminate a conflict.
My hope is that all who read “White Sun War” will find an old soldier’s description of future war too catastrophic to contemplate. That is a good thing. ..."
May 11, 2025
Interesting sci-fi read that focused on what a near future conflict would look like in Taiwan. The ideas were thought provoking and accurate just found the writing a bit corny at times
September 4, 2023
Like many recent 'futurist' war books (Stavridis' "2034" comes to mind), Mick Ryan's "White Sun War" is a riveting and thought-provoking addition to the realm of military fiction. With its intricate plot, well-drawn characters, and vivid depiction of the modern battlefield, this book is a must-read for fans of the genre and anyone interested in the complexities of contemporary warfare. The story follows a group of Special Forces operatives as they navigate the treacherous landscape of a fictional conflict in a war-torn region. Ryan's background in military strategy and his meticulous research shine through in the authenticity of the narrative. From the tactical maneuvers to the intricacies of military equipment and procedures, "White Sun War" feels like an insider's account of modern warfare. A strength of this book is its character development as Ryan invests time in fleshing out the protagonists, making them relatable and multi-dimensional. Their struggles, both on and off the battlefield, add depth to the narrative, and readers will find themselves emotionally invested in their fates. The camaraderie and bonds forged amidst the chaos of war are portrayed with authenticity, offering a glimpse into the human side of the military experience. The pacing is relentless, keeping readers on the edge of their seats throughout. The tension escalates steadily as the team faces not only external threats but also internal challenges and moral dilemmas. Ryan skillfully weaves together multiple storylines, creating a tapestry of conflict and intrigue that is both engaging and thought-provoking. What sets "White Sun War" apart is its exploration of the ethical and moral quandaries faced by soldiers in the modern world, which makes for a great work to study in professional military education institutions. The book delves into the gray areas of warfare, forcing readers to grapple with difficult questions about duty, honor, and the human cost of conflict. This book is a testament to Ryan's expertise and storytelling prowess, and it is sure to leave a lasting impression on anyone who picks it up.
July 11, 2024
The story is OK, but leaves much to be desired by someone really wanting to see how a retired general thinks a Sino-American war for Taiwan would unfold in the very near future. If it took more than a 12-hour plane ride to read, this would be a 1-star book for sure because it reads like a MARFORPAC fever dream. Most important takeaway: If it comes to blows, there will be a ground fight for Taiwan. Myopic 21st century navalists can get bent.
I'm surprised at the number of "military strategists" who fawn over this. I suspect it is uncritical hero worship of the author--nothing against him personally. Things that are interesting here: (1) the importance of space capabilities (this is overstated, however); (2) employment of amphibious autonomous systems; and (3) the importance of the ground fight for Taiwan.
Things that are just too unbelievable even if the story had taken place in 2040: (1) US space and cyber capabilities; (2) no nuclear weapons employment; (3) India has a small role to play; and (4) AI really isn't going to be the silver bullet for coordinating ground combat for many, many years.
Where this book is really lacking: (1) too tactically focused and (2) the story handwaves critical points that the plot hinges on, e.g., and initial American victory at sea and American space capabilities. I get fog, friction, and chance but Mick goes overboard here.
Things that would have made a big difference: (1) a focus on the operational level issues (it reads like a Marine division and a space force operator won the war) and (2) an acknowledgement that a war for Taiwan would be inherently escalatory given the stakes for all parties involved. Stavridis and Ackerman's 2054 handled escalation with a nuclear exchange. Mick's account is too sanitary, and self-contained to the South China Sea.
I'm surprised at the number of "military strategists" who fawn over this. I suspect it is uncritical hero worship of the author--nothing against him personally. Things that are interesting here: (1) the importance of space capabilities (this is overstated, however); (2) employment of amphibious autonomous systems; and (3) the importance of the ground fight for Taiwan.
Things that are just too unbelievable even if the story had taken place in 2040: (1) US space and cyber capabilities; (2) no nuclear weapons employment; (3) India has a small role to play; and (4) AI really isn't going to be the silver bullet for coordinating ground combat for many, many years.
Where this book is really lacking: (1) too tactically focused and (2) the story handwaves critical points that the plot hinges on, e.g., and initial American victory at sea and American space capabilities. I get fog, friction, and chance but Mick goes overboard here.
Things that would have made a big difference: (1) a focus on the operational level issues (it reads like a Marine division and a space force operator won the war) and (2) an acknowledgement that a war for Taiwan would be inherently escalatory given the stakes for all parties involved. Stavridis and Ackerman's 2054 handled escalation with a nuclear exchange. Mick's account is too sanitary, and self-contained to the South China Sea.
August 1, 2023
Written by a military strategist this vision of a possible near future war in Taiwan is an interesting exercise, especially since the invasion of Ukraine by the other belligerent land-grabbing nation in the world. At times it reads like science fiction, but then some of the footage of war in the Ukraine has that feel. In a full scale clash of the US and China capabilities far in excess of the Ukraine-Russia clash would probably be seen. It’s a brisk and clear exploration of the conflict, but it is not Red Storm Rising (Tom Clancy’s fictional Soviet - NATO conflict over oil). It lacks the characterisation of that novel, and while smaller scale actions are illustrated they don’t suck you in like the Iceland intelligence gathering in Red Storm Rising. Overall, a worthwhile quick read and who knows, perhaps we will see how accurate Ryan’s predictions are. Let’s hope not.
October 2, 2023
There is still no modern successor to Tom Clancy's techno-thrillers of the 1980s-90s where future tech meets a compelling, human-driven story. Many authors, Mick Ryan included, can ably cover the first element but I've yet to read one that leaves me thinking about people.
Mick is onto an important task for all modern militaries - doctrine for human-machine pairing - but doesn't get beyond identifying the problem. More optimistic than Ghost Fleet, a better story than 2034, but I was hoping for something a bit more serious about the future of war.
Mick is onto an important task for all modern militaries - doctrine for human-machine pairing - but doesn't get beyond identifying the problem. More optimistic than Ghost Fleet, a better story than 2034, but I was hoping for something a bit more serious about the future of war.
November 21, 2023
Major General Mick Ryan (Australian Defence Force) is a treasure to the profession of arms - and this book is just an extension of that gift. Inspired by the narrative style that Shaara used to capture us with a fictional telling of the real-life generals who fought the battle of Gettysburg—Ryan brings us an account of a no-so-distant future war (2028) when China invades Taiwan. His fictional account uses the real-world history of our pending Thucydides trap to align a realistic conflict. Combining history, real-world strategy (both military and geo-political), and emerging technologies/modernization efforts—the reader is faced with both a warning and a roadmap to needed evolution on western warfare. Among the ilk of Ghost Fleet and 2032, White Sun War is both my favorite and, I would argue, the most useful fictional telling of future war to the modern strategist. Ryan uses all 3 forms of science fiction (gadget, social, and adventure) and both hard and soft sciences to capture the reader’s imagination and well as build a narrative that can guide future policy. Admittedly, (as referenced with “soft” science) Ryan uses speculative science…but it is fiction after all. And science fiction is just fiction we have yet to make science. As Isaac Asimov said, “Individual science fiction stories may seem as trivial as ever to the blinder critics and philosophers of today - but the core of science fiction, its essence has become crucial to our salvation if we are to be saved at all.” A must read for leaders of Soldiers/Sailors/Marines/Airmen/Guardian, policy-makers, and end those with just a passing interest or fondness for military science fiction and geo-political affairs.
March 21, 2024
Envisioning the future character of conflict is challenging and no prediction will be completely correct. However, this does not absolve the military professional from making an attempt as it is their professional responsibility to prepare for future conflict.
This book aids military planners, national security experts, and the defense industry in imagining what a future conflict could look like. Concepts, capabilities, and challenges are all on display in this entertaining book.
Highly recommend as it may be prescient and it is certainly a fun read even if the predictions are proven off.
This book aids military planners, national security experts, and the defense industry in imagining what a future conflict could look like. Concepts, capabilities, and challenges are all on display in this entertaining book.
Highly recommend as it may be prescient and it is certainly a fun read even if the predictions are proven off.
July 10, 2024
Intriguing book by a former Australian Major General and Advanced Studies Graduate on a fictitious war over Taiwan set in 2028 and modeled after a Michael Shaara “Killer Angels” style of narrative formatting.
Overall, overly dependent on robotics, AI, and non-kinetic capabilities that seemed more in the 2038 epoch… interesting audible “popcorn read” nonetheless.
Overall, overly dependent on robotics, AI, and non-kinetic capabilities that seemed more in the 2038 epoch… interesting audible “popcorn read” nonetheless.
March 2, 2025
Astonishingly poorly written, really. Nearly every character (in a loose sense) in this novel speaks like a corporate drone, engages in needless repetition and basically serves as an infodump delivery spout. The fictional war is presented at arm's length, at best, the end result depends on a deus ex machina solution, the decision to leave so many (supposedly high-ranked) characters nameless only helps to alienate me from this. Definitely not recommended.
July 5, 2024
Couldn’t put it down
March 12, 2024
Some of the grammar and spelling is off, the beginning couple of chapters are really boring, but after you look past that, it is an exceptional mix of fiction, military strategy, and political maneuvering. It really highlights the near future of military conflict.
December 1, 2025
I had this one for a long time on TBR list. And what a mixed bag.
Two stars given here is for cinematic nature of the story. Book is written in the best tradition of modern Hollywood war epics. Action scenes are very vivid and interestingly enough, considering the author's style, they are not that burdensome when it comes to details, names of the systems etc.
In the end, this books proves that it is not easy to write books of this sort and that there will be decades until someone writes books of same quality as Larry Bond and Tom Clancy (and here I mean original books by the author, not ones written by ghost writers) wrote in 1980's and early 1990's.
That being said, lets look at the book. I will say that I looked at the story as it was advertised. This was not fiction in your usual thriller self, this was advertised as fictional depiction of very possible war between super powers, lots of people talking about eye opening data and events. Even book itself is written in a form of a novel about true events of the war (which was interesting approach gotta admit). So this was to be like a wargame-novel that will give lots of insights into what would happen if China invades Taiwan.
Possible spoilers ahead you have been warned.
Part where author lost me completely is cliche when it comes to depiction of the Chinese. This does not differ that much from War 2034 novel, but for all means and purposes according to the author, Chinese in their behavior have not changed since 1990s. I think that this mindset will be (or we might say is) great hindrance to Western thinking of Chinese. I think they would be surprised how more closer to Singapore modern Chinese government is, and how far are they from the Mao Zedong's portrayal of CCP so popular in the West.
Also, author's depiction of production facilities in China for high technology seem way old. Chinese high tech sector - including industry - is way, way more advanced than it ever was and is a competitor to the West if only in a fact that they produce the goods for the West. So, all this talk about industry in China and limitations ....... i was like huh? Book is from 2023, describes the country in 2030s but depiction is like it is from 1990's.
And then, because hey it is West, that mention of how (to paraphrase) China would not need immediately to start taking chips from washing machines like Russia in Ukraine ..... Cringe. Utter cringe :) And all the talk about Ukraine definitely did not age well at all. But again, understandable. it is weird how even people like John Antal wrote books that definitely wont age well on the subject.
So, talking about cliches ......
Then we get to the theater of operations. Taiwan is island about 180km from China, 1000km from Philippines, about 500km from Okinawa, 5700km from Australia and 8000km from Hawaii. In this area of operations this close to the continental China apparently it is impossible to enforce blockade and ensure local dominance to support ground operations? What, missile barrages from continental China that way outrange anything from Taiwan side is a no go? What? And then on northern side of the Taiwan that is closer to China, continent-based anti ship batteries cannot support the offensive operations? And what about mines - suddenly mines are no problem? Can anyone remember what extremely limited mining operation by Iraqi's did? How long de-mining operations lasted and this was more or less use of conventional mines, not high tech stuff this book is full of. While mines are mentioned as defensive measure for the Taiwan, what about offensive mining of northern and southern sections, imagine everything prepared months ahead and all lanes fully mined to prevent allied shipping. Not to mention that surprise mine fields could be created on the eastern side of the island. I mean, this is according to the book planned for years, who is to say that mining cannot be done.
I understand that this is all for the story sake, I mean you cannot have too serious of a situation. But this kills any doubt on how things will progress. Imagine Guns of Navarone where German installations are on a cliff but there is an escalator going directly to it right from the beach our heroes come from. Still difficult but again ridiculous. But then those were Germans I guess, noble to the hilt (:)) so they had to be competent.
I am not saying that this book ending would be any different but there would be sincere wandering what will happen now, how will events develop if it was not just done like, Japanese and US mobilized, came in and northern landing found itself in problems. Deus ex machina.
Then we have Space Force. Now, I understand this is new force and very exotic and high tech, but this is ridiculous. There is absolutely nothing these geniuses cannot do. Nothing. Compared to them, Justice League is nothing. I mean this was such an overpowered move...... and nobody suspects anything, nothing. Everybody is like oh we lost gazillion satellites but yeah you see that debris, yeah it was due to . Russia alone had (during Soviet times) and still has ground monitoring stations for their anti-satellite systems, who knows what China has. And loss of entire stream of satellites is just shrugged off? And nothing is detected. I mean, OK, for story sake, but ...... weird.
Modern weapons are even presented in a moderate way, and I liked that. So these are not super robotic weapons but autonomous combat systems working within parameters set by human troops. There is lots of buzzword flying around (algorithms, cyber this or that (but never mention electronic warfare as such), etc) and I had to giggle when at the end Chinese commander dismisses jargon terms from his junior officer as in, those are just buzzwords (while at the same time on US side they throw these same terms all over the place - but here I guess it has meaning?). Entire mayhem of the modern war, constant fire missions, fast detection and strikes, they are portrayed well, one can feel anxiety and fear of just looking at the skies. But then we get to the point which is weird. So Chinese forces get proven as inferior (I mean, imagine different situation) but they pioneer and apply use of all this high tech (including missiles) in a very sophisticated way that puts US and Taiwan off balance. Also their combat unmanned vehicles are very deadly and adaptable but ..... why they lose again? Right, story and moral lesson (I wont go into cringy parts of text of defending democracy ..... oh boy).
Attrition combat - whole corps' clashing and side with problems with logistics is not the one sailing 10000 km from the east of Pacific, but the one 180km west from the island? Author's stand is that Western defense industry is on war footing, or very quickly to scale. Again, OK, but are we to say Chinese industry is not? And why would it not be? I mean entire story reminds me of wargame where they all have high tech stuff but the baddies have industry potential from two decades ago. Do we truly believe that Chinese supply of ammo and missiles would be minuscule when compared to US and allies? Truly? In missile exchanges with Iran, Israel and US depleted almost all reserves of anti air missiles - US fleet, Middle East forces and Israel itself. And this lasted around two weeks with no constant volleys of missiles every minute coming in. And we are to believe that ballistic missiles from China or from beachheads in Taiwan would not saturate Taiwan's and US air defenses after months of combat?
OK, again for the story sake. But mind you this is like third lucky occurrence for Taiwan, US and allies, those dices are loaded heavily.
Interestingly there is no mention of aircraft carriers (except of course those lost by China). This was interesting, I wonder why was this the case since for everything else US and allies are so dominant one wonders how they did not finish off the enemy sooner.
Then in manner of standard boss fights in video games, ace comes in form of mysterious next generation planes from US (again, considering latest advanced Chinese fighters this did not age well, at all). What they are nobody knows but they are so powerful they together with the most ridiculous turn of events (wont spoil it, this needs to be read to believe it) manage to completely end the enemy. Only thing to top this would be appearance of Godzilla. Really.
Author's style is pretty heavy when presenting characters with long depictions of character history, what they did, when, how etc. It feels like reading from somebody's personal record. Maybe the goal was like documentary expose approach but this gets tiring very soon. Apparently in this future majority of command positions in US armed forces are assigned to women. Interestingly all these women are loners, but very experienced professionals. I have a feeling that if it weren't for men in uniform no military marriage would have kids. Or marriage, because all of the women professionals are also divorced. And did I mention all US officers are philosophers, full of such fundamental knowledge and view of the world that they feel loss of life of all their soldiers and comrades and suffer the death of their dreams and potentials. Jedis would tell them to get off the high horse. This level of internal suffering ...... I mean, these people dont hide from their emotions. Why is this the way author chose to follow is beyond me.
If this was story in manner of Op-Center, or Scarecrow series, or any action oriented comic book like Buck Danny or similar I would enjoy it and give it a solid four stars. It has everything including the slightly [too] cringe depiction of freedom loving allies and Fu-Man-Chu caricature of the enemy. But since this is advertised as depiction of very possible events it cannot go over two stars because it misses on so many things, from politics, industry, everything, that it becomes funny at the end. It is obvious this was book written in part in euphoric Autumn/Winter of 2022 (in Ukraine) but only couple of months after it would be visible to the author how things have changed, and that his view of the world politics did not age well at all.
If you want to read high octane action thriller go for it. If you want to gain some insights into possible wargame scenario based on real life situations (and try to absorb descriptions, acronyms and buzzwords of all high-tech stuff, some crazy some real, showing up in novel) you are better served reading non fiction books on the subject.
Two stars given here is for cinematic nature of the story. Book is written in the best tradition of modern Hollywood war epics. Action scenes are very vivid and interestingly enough, considering the author's style, they are not that burdensome when it comes to details, names of the systems etc.
In the end, this books proves that it is not easy to write books of this sort and that there will be decades until someone writes books of same quality as Larry Bond and Tom Clancy (and here I mean original books by the author, not ones written by ghost writers) wrote in 1980's and early 1990's.
That being said, lets look at the book. I will say that I looked at the story as it was advertised. This was not fiction in your usual thriller self, this was advertised as fictional depiction of very possible war between super powers, lots of people talking about eye opening data and events. Even book itself is written in a form of a novel about true events of the war (which was interesting approach gotta admit). So this was to be like a wargame-novel that will give lots of insights into what would happen if China invades Taiwan.
Possible spoilers ahead you have been warned.
Part where author lost me completely is cliche when it comes to depiction of the Chinese. This does not differ that much from War 2034 novel, but for all means and purposes according to the author, Chinese in their behavior have not changed since 1990s. I think that this mindset will be (or we might say is) great hindrance to Western thinking of Chinese. I think they would be surprised how more closer to Singapore modern Chinese government is, and how far are they from the Mao Zedong's portrayal of CCP so popular in the West.
Also, author's depiction of production facilities in China for high technology seem way old. Chinese high tech sector - including industry - is way, way more advanced than it ever was and is a competitor to the West if only in a fact that they produce the goods for the West. So, all this talk about industry in China and limitations ....... i was like huh? Book is from 2023, describes the country in 2030s but depiction is like it is from 1990's.
And then, because hey it is West, that mention of how (to paraphrase) China would not need immediately to start taking chips from washing machines like Russia in Ukraine ..... Cringe. Utter cringe :) And all the talk about Ukraine definitely did not age well at all. But again, understandable. it is weird how even people like John Antal wrote books that definitely wont age well on the subject.
So, talking about cliches ......
Then we get to the theater of operations. Taiwan is island about 180km from China, 1000km from Philippines, about 500km from Okinawa, 5700km from Australia and 8000km from Hawaii. In this area of operations this close to the continental China apparently it is impossible to enforce blockade and ensure local dominance to support ground operations? What, missile barrages from continental China that way outrange anything from Taiwan side is a no go? What? And then on northern side of the Taiwan that is closer to China, continent-based anti ship batteries cannot support the offensive operations? And what about mines - suddenly mines are no problem? Can anyone remember what extremely limited mining operation by Iraqi's did? How long de-mining operations lasted and this was more or less use of conventional mines, not high tech stuff this book is full of. While mines are mentioned as defensive measure for the Taiwan, what about offensive mining of northern and southern sections, imagine everything prepared months ahead and all lanes fully mined to prevent allied shipping. Not to mention that surprise mine fields could be created on the eastern side of the island. I mean, this is according to the book planned for years, who is to say that mining cannot be done.
I understand that this is all for the story sake, I mean you cannot have too serious of a situation. But this kills any doubt on how things will progress. Imagine Guns of Navarone where German installations are on a cliff but there is an escalator going directly to it right from the beach our heroes come from. Still difficult but again ridiculous. But then those were Germans I guess, noble to the hilt (:)) so they had to be competent.
I am not saying that this book ending would be any different but there would be sincere wandering what will happen now, how will events develop if it was not just done like, Japanese and US mobilized, came in and northern landing found itself in problems. Deus ex machina.
Then we have Space Force. Now, I understand this is new force and very exotic and high tech, but this is ridiculous. There is absolutely nothing these geniuses cannot do. Nothing. Compared to them, Justice League is nothing. I mean this was such an overpowered move...... and nobody suspects anything, nothing. Everybody is like oh we lost gazillion satellites but yeah you see that debris, yeah it was due to . Russia alone had (during Soviet times) and still has ground monitoring stations for their anti-satellite systems, who knows what China has. And loss of entire stream of satellites is just shrugged off? And nothing is detected. I mean, OK, for story sake, but ...... weird.
Modern weapons are even presented in a moderate way, and I liked that. So these are not super robotic weapons but autonomous combat systems working within parameters set by human troops. There is lots of buzzword flying around (algorithms, cyber this or that (but never mention electronic warfare as such), etc) and I had to giggle when at the end Chinese commander dismisses jargon terms from his junior officer as in, those are just buzzwords (while at the same time on US side they throw these same terms all over the place - but here I guess it has meaning?). Entire mayhem of the modern war, constant fire missions, fast detection and strikes, they are portrayed well, one can feel anxiety and fear of just looking at the skies. But then we get to the point which is weird. So Chinese forces get proven as inferior (I mean, imagine different situation) but they pioneer and apply use of all this high tech (including missiles) in a very sophisticated way that puts US and Taiwan off balance. Also their combat unmanned vehicles are very deadly and adaptable but ..... why they lose again? Right, story and moral lesson (I wont go into cringy parts of text of defending democracy ..... oh boy).
Attrition combat - whole corps' clashing and side with problems with logistics is not the one sailing 10000 km from the east of Pacific, but the one 180km west from the island? Author's stand is that Western defense industry is on war footing, or very quickly to scale. Again, OK, but are we to say Chinese industry is not? And why would it not be? I mean entire story reminds me of wargame where they all have high tech stuff but the baddies have industry potential from two decades ago. Do we truly believe that Chinese supply of ammo and missiles would be minuscule when compared to US and allies? Truly? In missile exchanges with Iran, Israel and US depleted almost all reserves of anti air missiles - US fleet, Middle East forces and Israel itself. And this lasted around two weeks with no constant volleys of missiles every minute coming in. And we are to believe that ballistic missiles from China or from beachheads in Taiwan would not saturate Taiwan's and US air defenses after months of combat?
OK, again for the story sake. But mind you this is like third lucky occurrence for Taiwan, US and allies, those dices are loaded heavily.
Interestingly there is no mention of aircraft carriers (except of course those lost by China). This was interesting, I wonder why was this the case since for everything else US and allies are so dominant one wonders how they did not finish off the enemy sooner.
Then in manner of standard boss fights in video games, ace comes in form of mysterious next generation planes from US (again, considering latest advanced Chinese fighters this did not age well, at all). What they are nobody knows but they are so powerful they together with the most ridiculous turn of events (wont spoil it, this needs to be read to believe it) manage to completely end the enemy. Only thing to top this would be appearance of Godzilla. Really.
Author's style is pretty heavy when presenting characters with long depictions of character history, what they did, when, how etc. It feels like reading from somebody's personal record. Maybe the goal was like documentary expose approach but this gets tiring very soon. Apparently in this future majority of command positions in US armed forces are assigned to women. Interestingly all these women are loners, but very experienced professionals. I have a feeling that if it weren't for men in uniform no military marriage would have kids. Or marriage, because all of the women professionals are also divorced. And did I mention all US officers are philosophers, full of such fundamental knowledge and view of the world that they feel loss of life of all their soldiers and comrades and suffer the death of their dreams and potentials. Jedis would tell them to get off the high horse. This level of internal suffering ...... I mean, these people dont hide from their emotions. Why is this the way author chose to follow is beyond me.
If this was story in manner of Op-Center, or Scarecrow series, or any action oriented comic book like Buck Danny or similar I would enjoy it and give it a solid four stars. It has everything including the slightly [too] cringe depiction of freedom loving allies and Fu-Man-Chu caricature of the enemy. But since this is advertised as depiction of very possible events it cannot go over two stars because it misses on so many things, from politics, industry, everything, that it becomes funny at the end. It is obvious this was book written in part in euphoric Autumn/Winter of 2022 (in Ukraine) but only couple of months after it would be visible to the author how things have changed, and that his view of the world politics did not age well at all.
If you want to read high octane action thriller go for it. If you want to gain some insights into possible wargame scenario based on real life situations (and try to absorb descriptions, acronyms and buzzwords of all high-tech stuff, some crazy some real, showing up in novel) you are better served reading non fiction books on the subject.
December 14, 2023
This is legitimately a terrible book. First, there's no discernable story. The entire timeline is told through scenes of meetings in some military office, with some soldier or another giving a report about what's happened. The language used by characters is entirely out of powerpoint presentations or monument inscriptions, not human language which people actually speak. It almost doesn't matter, as the characters are barely even described, they're basically just an excuse to give reports on military campaign progress. The war the author describes makes no sense - it has no cause or context, and the campaigns themselves happen as if they're on a map, with Risk pieces being moved about. The author has no awareness of the actual terrain the armies are purportedly fighting on, divisions and units just moving "forward" or "north". I finished the book because I thought the author might have some interesting insight as to how a war like this would go down, but it was a total waste of time. This book has no relevance to anything actually happening in the world.
June 10, 2024
[Audiobook] It was obvious the reader was not a regular in military vernacular as many common military terms and acronyms were mispronounced. This normally wouldn't bother me but these happened to be used multiple times in each chapter:
littoral = lit-tor-al not literal
PACOM = PAY-COM
littoral = lit-tor-al not literal
PACOM = PAY-COM
July 2, 2023
Very good book, I think it could have been so much more. A deeper development of the characters could have made this a great book.
October 1, 2025
It's May 2028 and the Chinese have decided the time is ripe to reunite that troublesome renegade province of Taiwan back into the motherland. A massive invasion is planned along with decapitating strikes against Taiwanese leadership, disinformation campaigns against the US, and yes, strikes against US, AU, and JP bases.
What happens next? Is this a gripping story à la Red Storm Rising or Red Metal? Or is it a clunker like Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War?
The author, Mick Ryan, was a general in the AU armed forces and involved in many Allied efforts over the last 25 years. Now he does military/defense analysis on social media, among other platforms. I've actually heard him speak on a panel at the 2025 Chalke Valley History Fest with the topic being "On the Future of NATO".
Always a bit tricky when a professional soldier turns to speculative fiction - clearly they know their subject matter but can they write a thriller. See for example Richard Shirreff's 2017 War with Russia: An Urgent Warning from Senior Military Command (my review).
I gave this 4 stars (though 3.75 would be closer). Avoiding spoilers:
Note this book was written in 2023 and there are many references to warfare as conducted in Ukraine
* There's quite a bit on military strategic and tactical doctrine here. More so than a thriller writer would use but I suspect Ryan is aiming his book at western military thought leaders who are steeped in this stuff.
* Ryan focuses on a few characters: American, Taiwanese, and PLA Chinese. He does this to give the reader a sense of the battlefield experience.
* The characters mostly are in ground forces though US Space Command plays a key role along with the CCP leadership. US and Allied political leadership are not portrayed though their decisions are.
* There are a ton of autonomous ground and air platforms; AI-driven warfare plays a key part in the narrative.
* Unusual for a novel, there are maps to help the reader, especially since most won't be inherently familiar with the geography and major cities of Taiwan.
* Based on the book's title, I'm not giving anything away to say that the PLA lands troops on Taiwan. It is what happens after this that the story is concentrated upon.
So, 4 stars for being an original story and an interesting window into war raged by both humans and robots. Much more automated than what is going on in Ukraine today with Skynet-like allusions. A few ticks off for not being the greatest thriller writer in the world.
A few more ticks off for being shorter than it could have been given the scope of the campaign. Some aspects of the campaign are dealt with in a paragraph or two, just to focus the novel and keep it short. This was a bit annoying to me as exactly how the PLA (or Allies) accomplished certain things seemed dubious.
Ryan makes the assumption that the Allies have prepared for the conflict (i.e., we did pivot towards China) and have beefed up stocks of ammunition and unmanned platforms far in excess of 2025 stocks. Writing this in 2025, I find this hard to believe given the sclerotic US procurement system. Ryan also assumes that Allied weapons systems actually work all the time, something I also find dubious. Ironically, Ryan places women into multiple positions of combat command, something the current SecDef is determined to reverse.
The book is a page-turner because you don't know how it is going to turn out, the topic is original, and the tactics/weapons used are sufficiently believable to be part of 2028 armed forces. There's a better thriller waiting to be written over a war in the Western Pacific but this will ably do for now.
What happens next? Is this a gripping story à la Red Storm Rising or Red Metal? Or is it a clunker like Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War?
The author, Mick Ryan, was a general in the AU armed forces and involved in many Allied efforts over the last 25 years. Now he does military/defense analysis on social media, among other platforms. I've actually heard him speak on a panel at the 2025 Chalke Valley History Fest with the topic being "On the Future of NATO".
Always a bit tricky when a professional soldier turns to speculative fiction - clearly they know their subject matter but can they write a thriller. See for example Richard Shirreff's 2017 War with Russia: An Urgent Warning from Senior Military Command (my review).
I gave this 4 stars (though 3.75 would be closer). Avoiding spoilers:
Note this book was written in 2023 and there are many references to warfare as conducted in Ukraine
* There's quite a bit on military strategic and tactical doctrine here. More so than a thriller writer would use but I suspect Ryan is aiming his book at western military thought leaders who are steeped in this stuff.
* Ryan focuses on a few characters: American, Taiwanese, and PLA Chinese. He does this to give the reader a sense of the battlefield experience.
* The characters mostly are in ground forces though US Space Command plays a key role along with the CCP leadership. US and Allied political leadership are not portrayed though their decisions are.
* There are a ton of autonomous ground and air platforms; AI-driven warfare plays a key part in the narrative.
* Unusual for a novel, there are maps to help the reader, especially since most won't be inherently familiar with the geography and major cities of Taiwan.
* Based on the book's title, I'm not giving anything away to say that the PLA lands troops on Taiwan. It is what happens after this that the story is concentrated upon.
So, 4 stars for being an original story and an interesting window into war raged by both humans and robots. Much more automated than what is going on in Ukraine today with Skynet-like allusions. A few ticks off for not being the greatest thriller writer in the world.
A few more ticks off for being shorter than it could have been given the scope of the campaign. Some aspects of the campaign are dealt with in a paragraph or two, just to focus the novel and keep it short. This was a bit annoying to me as exactly how the PLA (or Allies) accomplished certain things seemed dubious.
Ryan makes the assumption that the Allies have prepared for the conflict (i.e., we did pivot towards China) and have beefed up stocks of ammunition and unmanned platforms far in excess of 2025 stocks. Writing this in 2025, I find this hard to believe given the sclerotic US procurement system. Ryan also assumes that Allied weapons systems actually work all the time, something I also find dubious. Ironically, Ryan places women into multiple positions of combat command, something the current SecDef is determined to reverse.
The book is a page-turner because you don't know how it is going to turn out, the topic is original, and the tactics/weapons used are sufficiently believable to be part of 2028 armed forces. There's a better thriller waiting to be written over a war in the Western Pacific but this will ably do for now.
October 30, 2024
blah
Rather read the RAND Corporation stuff off the shelf
or John Mearsheimer's musings about Taiwan and China
and not something that feels like one of the 1978 General Sir John Hackett Third World War books (with tons of interesting criticism) with bad vibes of shallow caricatures of Late John Clancy
[Future War books are neat in theory, or they used to be, depending on the author, depth and if they offer a peek into the decision making process and possible options faced.... or it's bad GI Joe teenage fan-fiction]
I find the criticisms of the book interesting, and in part I'll agree with both the critics and the author with some of the capabilities as well as some of the limitations.
My stance is that every 5-10 years there are facets where China gains, facets where the USA gain, and other departments where there is parity.
And that sure in 15 to 20 years you can slip behind with some aspects of Taiwan and gain in others, or nothing changes.
If China grows in Economic Power, it will be aggressive in it's policy, it's 17 neighbours where it's always had border conflicts with, and it's superpower mania for it's zone of influence.
..........
Generally realists feel that when you're dealing with superpowers it is incredibly dangerous to fuck with their zones of influence
Taiwan - Cuba - Ukraine
Three places where it's extraordinarily dangerous being next door to a Superpower
...........
Ryan is much better where you study his list of books and references, I don't usually agree with a fair amount of his views or analysis, but he is well read
and I actually think his critics on this Taiwan book aren't always correct, I see merit to both sides, even if I'm not a fan
........
If someone does a huge critique of the book and goes on for 12 pages, with all the agreements and disagreements on the predictions, strategy, technology and probabilities, I might actually be temped to buy this.
It's in my 'too many assumptions' pile
and even more serious of a knock, this book would have been more accurate in some aspects if it was written over 5 years ago, I think Taiwan has cooled down
and I still think that there are odds of massive US naval casualties in the very early part of the war which can't be discounted.
I think that it would take America about 5 years to win the war, assuming nothing goes beyond tactical nuclear stuff with Taiwan and naval warfare and no superpowers are hit with strategic nuclear arms or space weirdness.
The stronger China's Economy is the more of a danger
so I think, people can breath easier
The biggest minus to China if they did invade, is that the artillery attacks would be furious with anything naval.
Whatever parachutes in, has better odds, and well, you could say that Mearsheimer's analysis of artillery with a Chinese Naval invasion of Taiwan sounds like the Nazis with Operation Seelowe/Operation Sea Lion. Which I think Tooze did a good analysis of, from my look into it years ago
///////
If you like Future War with all the flaws, have fun with this one - write lots of reviews everywhere
Rather read the RAND Corporation stuff off the shelf
or John Mearsheimer's musings about Taiwan and China
and not something that feels like one of the 1978 General Sir John Hackett Third World War books (with tons of interesting criticism) with bad vibes of shallow caricatures of Late John Clancy
[Future War books are neat in theory, or they used to be, depending on the author, depth and if they offer a peek into the decision making process and possible options faced.... or it's bad GI Joe teenage fan-fiction]
I find the criticisms of the book interesting, and in part I'll agree with both the critics and the author with some of the capabilities as well as some of the limitations.
My stance is that every 5-10 years there are facets where China gains, facets where the USA gain, and other departments where there is parity.
And that sure in 15 to 20 years you can slip behind with some aspects of Taiwan and gain in others, or nothing changes.
If China grows in Economic Power, it will be aggressive in it's policy, it's 17 neighbours where it's always had border conflicts with, and it's superpower mania for it's zone of influence.
..........
Generally realists feel that when you're dealing with superpowers it is incredibly dangerous to fuck with their zones of influence
Taiwan - Cuba - Ukraine
Three places where it's extraordinarily dangerous being next door to a Superpower
...........
Ryan is much better where you study his list of books and references, I don't usually agree with a fair amount of his views or analysis, but he is well read
and I actually think his critics on this Taiwan book aren't always correct, I see merit to both sides, even if I'm not a fan
........
If someone does a huge critique of the book and goes on for 12 pages, with all the agreements and disagreements on the predictions, strategy, technology and probabilities, I might actually be temped to buy this.
It's in my 'too many assumptions' pile
and even more serious of a knock, this book would have been more accurate in some aspects if it was written over 5 years ago, I think Taiwan has cooled down
and I still think that there are odds of massive US naval casualties in the very early part of the war which can't be discounted.
I think that it would take America about 5 years to win the war, assuming nothing goes beyond tactical nuclear stuff with Taiwan and naval warfare and no superpowers are hit with strategic nuclear arms or space weirdness.
The stronger China's Economy is the more of a danger
so I think, people can breath easier
The biggest minus to China if they did invade, is that the artillery attacks would be furious with anything naval.
Whatever parachutes in, has better odds, and well, you could say that Mearsheimer's analysis of artillery with a Chinese Naval invasion of Taiwan sounds like the Nazis with Operation Seelowe/Operation Sea Lion. Which I think Tooze did a good analysis of, from my look into it years ago
///////
If you like Future War with all the flaws, have fun with this one - write lots of reviews everywhere
December 19, 2024
WOW. Imagine reading a history of, say, the Vietnam War composed of nothing more than the memos in Robert Macnamara's inbox. Or a first-person account of the entire U.S. occupation of Afghanistan, written by a RAND analyst who never leaves their desk in Santa Monica.
This book claims to be a novel, but it isn't. It's an extended briefing on the current inadequacies of the American military-industrial complex, reported from a near-future perspective where wise politicians and canny generals made all the right decisions which result in triumph over the evil communist threat to Taiwan.
Throughout, the author's writing style presents exemplars of storytelling's most deadly sins.
"Show, don't tell" -- forget about it. We spend the majority of our time in meetings, hearing briefings. Thrilling, right? Briefings delivered by functionaries who aren't even present during the action. Even in the three or four scenes adjacent to actual combat, we're sealed away from the action, safe at several removes.
"Let your characters carry the action" -- Characters? This book doesn't have characters. Instead, it has anthropomorphic heaps of exposition with names and ranks. These expositors literally say, "As you know" at least five times (I stopped counting).
"Different characters have different voices" -- Nope. At one point, a senior military leader in the Chinese invasion force refers to his own soldiers and equipment as Chinese troops and Chinese equipment. Not "our soldiers" or "my gear."
In short, there's such a complete and utter lack of basic narrative technique that I got angry at this book. I read the whole thing, just to make sure that the good guys win and the bad guys lose (yeah, just guess). There are no surprises because there's almost no action.
This would be a one-star book except one description of a day in the life of a U.S. Space Force Master Sergeant made me laugh out loud.
Strongly, STRONGLY not recommended.
This book claims to be a novel, but it isn't. It's an extended briefing on the current inadequacies of the American military-industrial complex, reported from a near-future perspective where wise politicians and canny generals made all the right decisions which result in triumph over the evil communist threat to Taiwan.
Throughout, the author's writing style presents exemplars of storytelling's most deadly sins.
"Show, don't tell" -- forget about it. We spend the majority of our time in meetings, hearing briefings. Thrilling, right? Briefings delivered by functionaries who aren't even present during the action. Even in the three or four scenes adjacent to actual combat, we're sealed away from the action, safe at several removes.
"Let your characters carry the action" -- Characters? This book doesn't have characters. Instead, it has anthropomorphic heaps of exposition with names and ranks. These expositors literally say, "As you know" at least five times (I stopped counting).
"Different characters have different voices" -- Nope. At one point, a senior military leader in the Chinese invasion force refers to his own soldiers and equipment as Chinese troops and Chinese equipment. Not "our soldiers" or "my gear."
In short, there's such a complete and utter lack of basic narrative technique that I got angry at this book. I read the whole thing, just to make sure that the good guys win and the bad guys lose (yeah, just guess). There are no surprises because there's almost no action.
This would be a one-star book except one description of a day in the life of a U.S. Space Force Master Sergeant made me laugh out loud.
Strongly, STRONGLY not recommended.
August 8, 2025
This book is clearly written by a person who knows his trade in warfare. Characters are relatable, though in some aspects somewhat black and white in terms of morality, which I believe reflects writer's ethos on military service as he sees it. People in general tend to be more flawed, but this is not an examination in human psyche - which does play essential part in warfare and especially in combat - but a very good scenario how war over Taiwan could possibly play out.
I would compare this to a Tom Clancy classic Red Storm Rising, which affected my very much when it was published in the 90's. Both are very cpativating books which incorporates modern technology in great detail and how it can be essential in victory, but also how humans are always behind every move and their persona, competence, ingenuity and integrity eventually decides the outcome of campaigns.
As this book is very inventive and captivating read, I can't help but wish it would have described some key events more than passing reference like "I took 2 major naval battles". I realize that writer had to make decisions on where to focus and keep book length under Lord of the Rings trilogy, but I can wish he would write a whole series of war books with the length that could match Clancy or Tolkien. I'd read them with passion and hope there will be more books coming from Mick Ryan.
All in all, this book is an excellent read, its predictions gives shivers down in my spine and at the same time, it shows the future of warfare how machines are taking ever more bigger role in combat. It is very clear, that we are approaching an era, where terminator -like autonomous machines will make decisions of life and death without remorse or emotion. And that genie will not go back in the bottle, no matter how much we would wish it.
I would compare this to a Tom Clancy classic Red Storm Rising, which affected my very much when it was published in the 90's. Both are very cpativating books which incorporates modern technology in great detail and how it can be essential in victory, but also how humans are always behind every move and their persona, competence, ingenuity and integrity eventually decides the outcome of campaigns.
As this book is very inventive and captivating read, I can't help but wish it would have described some key events more than passing reference like "I took 2 major naval battles". I realize that writer had to make decisions on where to focus and keep book length under Lord of the Rings trilogy, but I can wish he would write a whole series of war books with the length that could match Clancy or Tolkien. I'd read them with passion and hope there will be more books coming from Mick Ryan.
All in all, this book is an excellent read, its predictions gives shivers down in my spine and at the same time, it shows the future of warfare how machines are taking ever more bigger role in combat. It is very clear, that we are approaching an era, where terminator -like autonomous machines will make decisions of life and death without remorse or emotion. And that genie will not go back in the bottle, no matter how much we would wish it.
October 9, 2024
This was an interesting and fairly insight near-future military account.
It was some good battle sequences and an interesting overall campaign.
I liked the introduction of evolving technologies and military usage.
We switched between characters, but those characters were interesting and their perspectives useful.
There were some aspects that were hard to believe or disappointing:
1) That China could develop weapons as advanced as the beetles and us be blissfully unaware when then manufacture thousands of them. Similarly for us developing a whole fleet of new fighter-attack aircraft.
2) The simple preponderance of robots, UAVs, etc. was a bit hard to accept. In particular, while I could see the Chinese building a lot, I would think that they'd eventually default back to the 'human wave' approach when technology losses got expensive.
3) In the book, the Chinese bombard Honolulu but then the entire focus is on fighting in Taiwan. As Japan learned, if you bomb Hawaii (or mainland US), it's ON and we're not just going to focus on the regional fight -- we're going to find some way to destroy some Chinese ports or some such.
4) The discussion of broader events was very limited. In this kind of scenario, I think we and our allies would destroy all those man-made Chinese islands, China would lose most favored nation trading status, we'd shift some production back home, etc. Some of that could have been explored.
The narration was pretty good, but the narrator had odd/annoying pronunciations for a few words (adversary, etc.) and the book/narrator pronounced ranks/titles in unrealistic ways.
It was some good battle sequences and an interesting overall campaign.
I liked the introduction of evolving technologies and military usage.
We switched between characters, but those characters were interesting and their perspectives useful.
There were some aspects that were hard to believe or disappointing:
1) That China could develop weapons as advanced as the beetles and us be blissfully unaware when then manufacture thousands of them. Similarly for us developing a whole fleet of new fighter-attack aircraft.
2) The simple preponderance of robots, UAVs, etc. was a bit hard to accept. In particular, while I could see the Chinese building a lot, I would think that they'd eventually default back to the 'human wave' approach when technology losses got expensive.
3) In the book, the Chinese bombard Honolulu but then the entire focus is on fighting in Taiwan. As Japan learned, if you bomb Hawaii (or mainland US), it's ON and we're not just going to focus on the regional fight -- we're going to find some way to destroy some Chinese ports or some such.
4) The discussion of broader events was very limited. In this kind of scenario, I think we and our allies would destroy all those man-made Chinese islands, China would lose most favored nation trading status, we'd shift some production back home, etc. Some of that could have been explored.
The narration was pretty good, but the narrator had odd/annoying pronunciations for a few words (adversary, etc.) and the book/narrator pronounced ranks/titles in unrealistic ways.
July 26, 2024
Ryan's description of the weaponry and technology used in a near-future war over Taiwan is valuable and interesting. Ryan is extremely optimistic about the ability of the US armed forces to exploit new technology (I believe overly optimistic). He also suggests that the US has secret weaponry that would give them a clear advantage over Chinese forces, which is harder to believe. His individual soldiers are poorly conceived and used. There is far too much wishful thinking throughout the book.
Ryan is very speculative about the willingness of the US to fight this war. He imagines a US military build-up ahead of the conflict, then a response to the invasion similar to the response of the US to the 9/11 attacks. This is very unlikely. The retreat from Afghanistan was a strategic disaster for US interests, but that retreat was in line with the foreign policy of both major parties in the US. The leading candidate in 2024 derides the notion that the US should defend Taiwan. Also, Ryan did not account for the growing military cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. There is much reason for pessimism if China invades Taiwan. The US has substantial military capabilities, but a growing disinclination to use them. US political leadership is at a low ebb: we have had 8 years of incompetent presidents, and we face at least 4 more years of the same. There is no US leadership that could wage the war that Ryan describes.
Ryan is very speculative about the willingness of the US to fight this war. He imagines a US military build-up ahead of the conflict, then a response to the invasion similar to the response of the US to the 9/11 attacks. This is very unlikely. The retreat from Afghanistan was a strategic disaster for US interests, but that retreat was in line with the foreign policy of both major parties in the US. The leading candidate in 2024 derides the notion that the US should defend Taiwan. Also, Ryan did not account for the growing military cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. There is much reason for pessimism if China invades Taiwan. The US has substantial military capabilities, but a growing disinclination to use them. US political leadership is at a low ebb: we have had 8 years of incompetent presidents, and we face at least 4 more years of the same. There is no US leadership that could wage the war that Ryan describes.
August 13, 2024
2.5 stars. This book is what happens when you take an incredibly intelligent military commander who hasn't read a novel since high school English class, finally let him retire, and tell him to create a novel based on the definition of the word novel but without letting him actually read one. For God's sake let this man watch some Netflix, read a little fiction, and eat some popcorn. Buy this man some fuzzy socks. Give him a bathrobe and let him veg for five minutes.
I have no doubt that this was well researched and marvelously sums up some of the HUNDREDS of serious, academic war games that very serious people use to simulate how the invasion of Taiwan might go down. Make no mistake, I recognize that work is incredibly important and sharing it with our younger, useless, uninformed generation is even more so. But by God, man. Have we heard of SHOW DON'T TELL?! HAVE WE MET IT?! There are simply too many fantastic speculative fiction works out there for this to be acceptable. I mean, Christ, have you met George Orwell? An editor let this happen to you, Mick Ryan! An editor! Who makes money advising people to write good (typo intended).
I swear I got smarter reading this and I realize I probably need to read a whole lot more like it if I want to prepare myself for my career. BLUF: it's terrifying, the world we're moving into. But seriously. A character study or two. It would have worked wonders and potentially made this a better selling novel.
I have no doubt that this was well researched and marvelously sums up some of the HUNDREDS of serious, academic war games that very serious people use to simulate how the invasion of Taiwan might go down. Make no mistake, I recognize that work is incredibly important and sharing it with our younger, useless, uninformed generation is even more so. But by God, man. Have we heard of SHOW DON'T TELL?! HAVE WE MET IT?! There are simply too many fantastic speculative fiction works out there for this to be acceptable. I mean, Christ, have you met George Orwell? An editor let this happen to you, Mick Ryan! An editor! Who makes money advising people to write good (typo intended).
I swear I got smarter reading this and I realize I probably need to read a whole lot more like it if I want to prepare myself for my career. BLUF: it's terrifying, the world we're moving into. But seriously. A character study or two. It would have worked wonders and potentially made this a better selling novel.
January 23, 2025
I never considered myself the pretentious type to use “it insists upon itself” as a valid critique of literature but this novel truly insists upon itself. Nearly every character is 2D and woody. The author opens the book by imagining that this is his version of “The Killer Angels” - where is the Pulitzer Prize for this one? While the battlefield concepts discussed certainly merit conversation about their potential employment a better read would be Christian Ambrose’s “The Kill Chain”. This novel also needlessly wages into the culture wars by supplying all its female leads (of which all but two on the American side are) with moral platitudes. I’ve seen women better written in a YA smut novel. The addition of women also seems an afterthought, as if the character wrote mostly male and then changed them afterwards, more than once a paragraph following a female characters introduction is began with “He”, which, even if the female leads weren’t retcons, shows shoddy editing. This novel feels caught between trying to be sci-fi and historical fiction. It simply does not work.
September 28, 2025
White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan is sobering because it feels disturbingly plausible. Ryan writes it as if the war has already happened, so the politics, command calls and human cost hit harder than a normal techno-thriller.
What stuck with me is how he shows the kit shaping the fight, such as drone swarms, autonomous landing craft, sub-surface robots, even fiddling with weather satellites, but never pretends it replaces the ugly human business of fighting and dying.
The real punch is the people and the politics. Leaders under pressure, allies arguing over who carries the can, and Beijing betting it can outlast everyone. The story makes it clear that wars aren’t just about gadgets; they’re about willpower, decisions and mistakes.
The final scene - spoofing weather-sat data to fake a typhoon, is clever and genuinely unsettling. It says a lot about how fragile the information we rely on really is.
A sharp, gritty read that reminds you future conflict will be as political and human as it is high-tech.
What stuck with me is how he shows the kit shaping the fight, such as drone swarms, autonomous landing craft, sub-surface robots, even fiddling with weather satellites, but never pretends it replaces the ugly human business of fighting and dying.
The real punch is the people and the politics. Leaders under pressure, allies arguing over who carries the can, and Beijing betting it can outlast everyone. The story makes it clear that wars aren’t just about gadgets; they’re about willpower, decisions and mistakes.
The final scene - spoofing weather-sat data to fake a typhoon, is clever and genuinely unsettling. It says a lot about how fragile the information we rely on really is.
A sharp, gritty read that reminds you future conflict will be as political and human as it is high-tech.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
October 25, 2024
The novel is a techno thriller in the style of Tom Clancy early novels. It was written by a retired Major General in the Australian army. The novel is thought provoking considering what’s going on in the world today. The story revolves around a war starting from an attempt by China to reclaim Taiwan. They feel emboldened thinking the US won’t be able to do anything to prevent this. In the novel the US is dealing with political dissention at home, multiple natural disasters in US mainland and several foreign crises. This is a little to close to home with what is happening in the world today. The detailed description of the battles seem have been taken from current events in Ukraine. This included use of unmanned drones and social media. The new battlefield also included space and information warfare. Hackers played a major role in the resolution of the war. I found this novel interesting.
December 16, 2024
At first I was disappointed because I was hoping this was a historical accounting of everything l leading up to present day tensions. I quickly realized this was fiction and had to overcome my disappointment and continue past the prologue. If such a thing exists, this could be considered future historical fiction, a bit of an oxymoron there. While it seems very sci-fi at points, the truth is it’s not that far outside the realm of possibility to be just likely enough to be believable.
I specifically really enjoyed the way the book had so many points of view without it being too many where the reader loses track. Additionally, the book moved along with each point of view but I didn’t feel like I was missing anything in the timeline.
At points, it was very cliche and cheesy and that’s probably my biggest gripe with this book that otherwise pleasantly surprised me. I’d recommend it to others.
I specifically really enjoyed the way the book had so many points of view without it being too many where the reader loses track. Additionally, the book moved along with each point of view but I didn’t feel like I was missing anything in the timeline.
At points, it was very cliche and cheesy and that’s probably my biggest gripe with this book that otherwise pleasantly surprised me. I’d recommend it to others.
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