What do you think?
Rate this book
The House Advantage: Playing the Odds to Win Big in Business
As part of the notorious MIT Team depicted in Ben Mezrich's now classic Bringing Down the House, Jeff Ma used math and statistics to master the game of blackjack and reap handsome rewards at casinos. Years later, Ma has inspired not only a bestselling novel and hit movie, but has also started three different companies—the latest of which, Citizen Sports, is an innovative marriage of sports, betting, and digital technology—and launched a successful corporate speaking career. The House Advantage reveals Ma's cutting-edge mathematical insights into the world of statistics and makes them applicable to a wide business audience. He argues that numbers are the key to analyzing nearly everything in the world of business, from how to spot and profit from global market inefficiencies to having multiple backup plans in anticipation of every probability. Ma's stories and business lessons are as intriguing as they are universally applicable.
272 pages, Hardcover
First published July 6, 2010
43 people are currently reading
265 people want to read
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 22 of 22 reviews
January 4, 2013
(3.0) Great talk, okay book
If you have a chance to see Jeff Ma give a talk, go for it. Very entertaining, especially the anecdotes he peppers in (about celebrities etc.).
This formula for the book is: anecdote from blackjack, underlying principle, application to sports stats, super-brief generic application to "business". Some of the principles are good points to make.
I in particular appreciate his bringing up survivor bias, and pointing out that successful entrepreneurs, bold leaders can easily say the path to success is taking risks, being bold, blindly following passion (his example is Jack Welch, another good one is Steve Jobs)...but we only hear advice from those who succeeded. We don't know the probability of success (or failure) with such an approach because those who fail don't sit at the top of multi-billion-dollar companies and give speeches or write books about how to succeed. In fact, I've heard many say (e.g. Innovator's Dilemma, I believe) that successful leaders attribute a lot to "luck" (being ready to take advantage of luck/opportunity). This may literally be true for exactly the same reason. Those who are lucky, do succeed and get to write the books about it. Anyway, Jeff briefly starts down this line of reasoning; I wish he had carried it to full conclusion.
One of the best things about the book was the credit he gives to other authors. Definitely accelerated my reading of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't, which I thoroughly enjoyed.
If you have a chance to see Jeff Ma give a talk, go for it. Very entertaining, especially the anecdotes he peppers in (about celebrities etc.).
This formula for the book is: anecdote from blackjack, underlying principle, application to sports stats, super-brief generic application to "business". Some of the principles are good points to make.
I in particular appreciate his bringing up survivor bias, and pointing out that successful entrepreneurs, bold leaders can easily say the path to success is taking risks, being bold, blindly following passion (his example is Jack Welch, another good one is Steve Jobs)...but we only hear advice from those who succeeded. We don't know the probability of success (or failure) with such an approach because those who fail don't sit at the top of multi-billion-dollar companies and give speeches or write books about how to succeed. In fact, I've heard many say (e.g. Innovator's Dilemma, I believe) that successful leaders attribute a lot to "luck" (being ready to take advantage of luck/opportunity). This may literally be true for exactly the same reason. Those who are lucky, do succeed and get to write the books about it. Anyway, Jeff briefly starts down this line of reasoning; I wish he had carried it to full conclusion.
One of the best things about the book was the credit he gives to other authors. Definitely accelerated my reading of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't, which I thoroughly enjoyed.
September 2, 2015
I couldnt finish it. Just not enough meat to it.
December 15, 2019
Rating 3.4
November 26, 2020
A shallow book. The advice in the book is reasonable, with lots of backing examples from gambling and financial trading (but I repeat myself.) However, most of the advice is really obvious. The author mentions in the forward that this book is adapted from a series of short talks he gave at companies. This shows: there are lots of fun anecdotes, but little actionable advice.
A summary of chapters:
Ch 1: The Religion of Statistics: The Religion of Statistics is believing in your model, even if you have a run of bad luck. Also introduces the author.
Ch 2: Why the Past Matters: Historical data is useful for model building; beware overfit and historically unprecedented situations.
Ch 3: Think Like a Scientist: Avoid confirmation and selection bias.
Ch 4: The Importance of Asking Questions: Framing the problem the right way is 80% of solving it; also, when you're hit by a series of unexpected failures, you should ask if your model is wrong or you're just having bad luck, but it's probably bad luck.
Ch 5: The Impractical Search for Perfection: You can build useful models even if they aren't statistically significant.
Ch 6: Using Numbers to Tell a Story: The output of a statistical system should be interpretable and falsifiable. "Psuedo-statistics" thwart this. The author hates BCS, calling it a stain on the honor of the profession of statistics.
Ch 7: Never Fear: Manage risk effectively by using Kelly criterion and having plans for a run of bad luck.
Ch 8: Making the Right Decision: When evaluating a past decision, think about expected value with what you knew at the time, not final outcome. People are biased to be more afraid of losses than they are excited by gains. The pressure of conventional thinking is strong, and can prevent you from finding optimal strategy.
Ch 9: When I Won, We All Won: Cohesion and aligned incentives are important.
Ch 10: Why People Hate Math and What to Do with Them: How to justify a statistical estimate to someone who doesn't believe in statistics
Ch 11: The Brain Cells in Your Stomach: Intuition based on experience is valuable and shouldn't be ignored.
Wouldn't recommend.
A summary of chapters:
Ch 1: The Religion of Statistics: The Religion of Statistics is believing in your model, even if you have a run of bad luck. Also introduces the author.
Ch 2: Why the Past Matters: Historical data is useful for model building; beware overfit and historically unprecedented situations.
Ch 3: Think Like a Scientist: Avoid confirmation and selection bias.
Ch 4: The Importance of Asking Questions: Framing the problem the right way is 80% of solving it; also, when you're hit by a series of unexpected failures, you should ask if your model is wrong or you're just having bad luck, but it's probably bad luck.
Ch 5: The Impractical Search for Perfection: You can build useful models even if they aren't statistically significant.
Ch 6: Using Numbers to Tell a Story: The output of a statistical system should be interpretable and falsifiable. "Psuedo-statistics" thwart this. The author hates BCS, calling it a stain on the honor of the profession of statistics.
Ch 7: Never Fear: Manage risk effectively by using Kelly criterion and having plans for a run of bad luck.
Ch 8: Making the Right Decision: When evaluating a past decision, think about expected value with what you knew at the time, not final outcome. People are biased to be more afraid of losses than they are excited by gains. The pressure of conventional thinking is strong, and can prevent you from finding optimal strategy.
Ch 9: When I Won, We All Won: Cohesion and aligned incentives are important.
Ch 10: Why People Hate Math and What to Do with Them: How to justify a statistical estimate to someone who doesn't believe in statistics
Ch 11: The Brain Cells in Your Stomach: Intuition based on experience is valuable and shouldn't be ignored.
Wouldn't recommend.
November 29, 2019
I found the blackjack anecdotes in this book far more interesting than the business lessons it was trying to convey. Each chapter basically consists of a lesson in being analytical and collecting data in order to make a rational decision, where there's something from the author's past as a member of the MIT Blackjack Team, something about using a similar approach in the sports or business world, and then something relating this to a general principle behind business. The last part relating it to a general business principle, though, is the part that stuck with me the least, and I found the real-life anecdotes that relate to the general principle far more interesting and memorable than the actual business-related takeaway. It would have worked much better as a memoir about the author's time on the MIT Blackjack Team, since that was written in an interesting and engaging way.
February 28, 2021
這是一本用撲克牌21點延伸到方方面面的實用生活書籍，我們每天都在做決策，很多時候是由直覺或感情主導，在一些事情上可能沒有關係，但在面對重大決定時，要如何客觀地做決策則相當重要。
做決策時候遇到很多認知偏誤，我們大多不願承認這些偏誤的存在，因為大多時候這些偏誤反直覺，難以令人接受，感覺像是被呼巴掌或是受到羞辱那般。但如果面對這些偏誤，然後加上客觀的統計學概念，通常可以讓我們避開一些可以避免的決策失誤。
幾個重點摘要：
1) 像個科學家思考，避免落入確認性偏誤，或是設計選擇性偏誤的實驗，並且懂得去質疑結果。將重點放在科關資料、有意義的結果和實際應用。
2) 規畫(策略)是取得成功的要素，建立紀律，不要對其他情況分心。
3) 注意風險管理，必須確定有足夠的資本(金)，經得起最惡劣的情況。風險管理的重點在於那個最壞的情況。
4) 沒有必要追求完美或是大作為，只需要比現在的預測精準一點就行了。
5) 專注於實際的小問題，而非理想化的大問題。
做決策時候遇到很多認知偏誤，我們大多不願承認這些偏誤的存在，因為大多時候這些偏誤反直覺，難以令人接受，感覺像是被呼巴掌或是受到羞辱那般。但如果面對這些偏誤，然後加上客觀的統計學概念，通常可以讓我們避開一些可以避免的決策失誤。
幾個重點摘要：
1) 像個科學家思考，避免落入確認性偏誤，或是設計選擇性偏誤的實驗，並且懂得去質疑結果。將重點放在科關資料、有意義的結果和實際應用。
2) 規畫(策略)是取得成功的要素，建立紀律，不要對其他情況分心。
3) 注意風險管理，必須確定有足夠的資本(金)，經得起最惡劣的情況。風險管理的重點在於那個最壞的情況。
4) 沒有必要追求完美或是大作為，只需要比現在的預測精準一點就行了。
5) 專注於實際的小問題，而非理想化的大問題。
February 15, 2024
75% interesting
The sections on blackjack, card counting and sports analytics were very interesting and well written. The portions of the book that attempt to apply the lessons to business decisions feel forced and a bit out of date with recent technology advances. I am glad that I read the book and glad to have the card counting essay and basic strategy chart. This book was well worth the money at the current Amazon discounted price.
The sections on blackjack, card counting and sports analytics were very interesting and well written. The portions of the book that attempt to apply the lessons to business decisions feel forced and a bit out of date with recent technology advances. I am glad that I read the book and glad to have the card counting essay and basic strategy chart. This book was well worth the money at the current Amazon discounted price.
May 3, 2020
好讀，「讓數據分析作為決策之本」的啟蒙書。提及商業面、日常生活面，也討論了推動時可能碰到的困難，不致與實務脫節。
May 9, 2012
Ma's book promised to adapt the lesson of the Blackjack table to business and sports. Rather than use Michael Lewis' term "cybermetrics" in his book Money Ball, Ma develops the statistical theories for analytics. From a technical basis the MIT grad indeed does give greater insights into the numbers.
Perhaps equally importantly, the author illuminates why ordinary folk are not able to or successful at using this disciplined approach. The events that Ma cites do show how "confirmation bias", causation/correlation, availability heuristic and other phenomena block the ordinary manager from applying his techniques. There are example of tactics and technique to introduce the non-stats people to the power of numbers.
Ma's ultra rational and ultra discipline approach, which is appropriate for 21, has transition problems to other venues. He discusses Bill Belicheck's infamous going for 4th and short against Peyton Manning's Colts. True to his view, the poker player describes to the Nth degree how the Patriots' coach was right. What's missing in Ma's analysis of this case, and lacking in other human enterprises, is the transition from the analytical assessment to a person's belief. Trying to get a first down deep in your own territory late in the game may be quintessentially rational, but telling a group of behemoths to do something 100% contrary their experiences translates to a lack of confidence among the actors and the yard is not gained.
Interesting book, a brilliant writer who has great insights into the deep meaning of numbers, but while trying to translate his math lessons to the common man, the digits do not transfer as well. Jocks and middle management have to implement the strategy, but do not grasp the basis for the action. Without comprehension of the basis for WHY, the people who are responsible for WHAT and HOW may not move forward with alacrity if they comprehended Ma's principles better.
Perhaps equally importantly, the author illuminates why ordinary folk are not able to or successful at using this disciplined approach. The events that Ma cites do show how "confirmation bias", causation/correlation, availability heuristic and other phenomena block the ordinary manager from applying his techniques. There are example of tactics and technique to introduce the non-stats people to the power of numbers.
Ma's ultra rational and ultra discipline approach, which is appropriate for 21, has transition problems to other venues. He discusses Bill Belicheck's infamous going for 4th and short against Peyton Manning's Colts. True to his view, the poker player describes to the Nth degree how the Patriots' coach was right. What's missing in Ma's analysis of this case, and lacking in other human enterprises, is the transition from the analytical assessment to a person's belief. Trying to get a first down deep in your own territory late in the game may be quintessentially rational, but telling a group of behemoths to do something 100% contrary their experiences translates to a lack of confidence among the actors and the yard is not gained.
Interesting book, a brilliant writer who has great insights into the deep meaning of numbers, but while trying to translate his math lessons to the common man, the digits do not transfer as well. Jocks and middle management have to implement the strategy, but do not grasp the basis for the action. Without comprehension of the basis for WHY, the people who are responsible for WHAT and HOW may not move forward with alacrity if they comprehended Ma's principles better.
November 15, 2013
With all of the hype about Big Data, it's never been more essential to dial it down a notch. How can we make the right business decisions when we don't understand Small Data basic math? When uncertainty and risk are inherent in everything we do?
These are fundamental questions at the heart of Jeff's book. The gambling, finance, and sports examples underscore his points. No, life isn't as simple as playing Blackjack, but many of the same principle still apply. My favorite example: The idiot Cubs' fan who didn't understand rudimentary probability.
I read quite a few business books, so not all of the concepts were new to me. Still, this is an important text for those those looking to understand why people make suboptimal business decisions–and to avoid making the same mistakes.
These are fundamental questions at the heart of Jeff's book. The gambling, finance, and sports examples underscore his points. No, life isn't as simple as playing Blackjack, but many of the same principle still apply. My favorite example: The idiot Cubs' fan who didn't understand rudimentary probability.
I read quite a few business books, so not all of the concepts were new to me. Still, this is an important text for those those looking to understand why people make suboptimal business decisions–and to avoid making the same mistakes.
March 21, 2011
This book is interesting enough, but there's nothing new that you can't already find in other, more interesting reads like Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, Blink, and Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning.
March 23, 2016
Interesting read especially with touching on different cognitive biases in pretty much each chapter, but most of the book's formula was basically blackjack success story (Ma of MIT / Bringing Down the House) + sports/GM/front office anecdotes, with only a sprinkle of applying it to real life.
He does take the MIT Team's & his record of success, relating it to our cognitive biases and providing recommendations for day-to-day life, but it didn't turn out to reach the heights I hoped of it.
Potentially worth checking out. Jeff Ma as a speaker and columnist is awesome and I hope his new projects bear fruit for all of us!
He does take the MIT Team's & his record of success, relating it to our cognitive biases and providing recommendations for day-to-day life, but it didn't turn out to reach the heights I hoped of it.
Potentially worth checking out. Jeff Ma as a speaker and columnist is awesome and I hope his new projects bear fruit for all of us!
December 15, 2011
This book is an anthology of anecdotes from 3 of my favorite books: "Against the Gods", "Fortune's Formula", and, of course, "Bringing Down the House". It applies these anecdotes loosely into a series of techniques for utilizing statistical methods to improve just about any endeavor.
Though I would recommend this book, it is a primer in these topics and more philosophical than practical. It is a quick read and easy to digest.
Though I would recommend this book, it is a primer in these topics and more philosophical than practical. It is a quick read and easy to digest.
May 18, 2012
Overall an enjoyable read. Ma had a lot of interesting, meaningful, and applicable things to say. I especially enjoyed the last chapter as it applied to me as a statistician communicating better with non-statisticians. It was a little disjointed in terms of the presentation of the ideas and stories along with some typos and redundant vocabulary bringing it to a 3star but still very fun to read.
August 17, 2010
Worth reading for a few key insights. Ma figured out how to beat Vegas at Blackjack and applies his stats expertise to business. Mediocre book but with a few good ideas worth reading. He is fair minded that starts can give you a small edge if used correctly.
August 31, 2010
Statistics have a wide range of applications in business, from analyzing sales trends to measuring technological efficiencies. The statistical lessons learned from mathematics and gambling can be applied to sustain a competitive advantage.
December 17, 2013
Good book overall, but a fair amount of typos and some stretching to make the blackjack analogies work with the "business lessons". But if you are a stats guy, or a business guy who wants to be a stats guy, I think there is some good material here.
January 5, 2016
Enjoyable and entertaining read more than game-changing business principles, but worth a read. Good stories from the blackjack table, and good reminder of some core analytical approaches important for business.
August 21, 2010
A great, easy-to-read book to understand how decisions are made in life and business, and how you can have an edge over the rest.
June 2, 2011
Ok, should have been an essay, better card player then writer I would hope.
January 22, 2015
Interesting points, easy to read
on-a-break
December 30, 2010Midway through, Ma has lost me in a series of "analytics truisms". Letting it breathe.
Displaying 1 - 22 of 22 reviews