Security Analysis - Benjamin Graham & David L. Dodd
Jan - Mar, 2025
Patience.
Margin of safety.
Sentiment play is also valid. For example, when Trump was elected for 2nd term, Elon Musk was a big contributor in Trump's victory, this meant Tesla stock price could go up a lot due to sentiment that Elon is in the power circle, and indeed, Tesla went up more than doubled.
Astute observers of corporate balance sheets are often the first to see business deterioration or vulnerability as inventories and receivables build, debt grows, and cash evaporates.
Value investors typically begin selling at a 10% to 20% discount to their assessment of underlying value. Assessment based on the liquidity of the security, the possible presence of a catalyst for value realization, the quality of management, the riskiness and leverage of the underlying business, and the investor's confidence level regarding the assumptions underlying the investment.
The true key to material happiness lay in a modest standard of living which could be achieved with little difficulty under almost all economic conditions
Good stocks are those of either (1) leading companies with satisfactory records, a combination relied on to produce favorable results in the future; or (2) any well-financed enterprise believed to have especially attractive prospects of increased future earnings.
Investors should spend the bulk of their time on the disclosures of the security under study, and they should spend significant time on the reports of competitors.
Security analysis does not seek to determine exactly what is the intrinsic value of a given security. It needs only to establish either that the value is adequate, e.g., to protect a bond or to justify a stock purchase, or else that the value is considerably higher or considerably lower than the market price.
The main obstacles to the success of the analyst's work are, (1) the inadequacy or incorrectness of the data, (2) the uncertainties of the future, (3) the irrational behavior of the market.
Market is not a weighing machine but rather a voting machine. Countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion.
Relationship of Intrinsic Value Factors to Market Price
Four fundamental elements for answering questions like 'What securities should be bought for a given purpose? Should issue S be bought, or sold, or retained at price P, at this timeT, by individual I?'
The security. Character of the enterprise and the terms of the commitment.
Principle for the untrained security buyer: Do not put money in a low-grade enterprise on any terms.
Principle for the securities analyst: Nearly every issue might conceivably be cheap in one price range and dear in another.
The price. The danger of paying the wrong price is almost as great as that of buying the wrong issue.
The time. Financial and business outlook at the time; stress and uncertainty.
The person. His financial training, competence, temperament, preferences.
Quantitative & Qualitative Factors in Analysis
Definitions
Quantitative
Company's statistical exhibit. Included in it would be things like income account and balance sheet, production data, unit prices, costs, capacity, unfilled orders, etc.
Generally classified under (1) capitalization, (2) earnings and dividends, (3) assets and liabilities, (4) operating statistics.
Qualitative
Nature of the business and its future prospects. Relative position of the individual company in the industry; its physical, geographical, and operating characteristics; the character of the managements; the outlook for the unit, for the industry, and for business in general.
The Trend
The trend of future earnings doesn't necessarily mean it'll happen, it's an assumption/prediction. By the time the upward or downward trend has become clearly noticeable, condition may well be ripe for a change.
Net income is more important than earnings/revenue.
A consistent trend may give a guideline that the next year earning may not fall far off from current.
Trend essentially a qualitative factor.
An investment operation is one which , upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.
An investment operation is one that can be justified on both qualitative and quantitative grounds.
Bond selection is primarily a negative art. It's a process of exclusion and rejection, rather than of search and acceptance.
The creditworthiness of every issuer represented in the portfolio must be revisited no less than quarterly. There are no permanent investments.
Free Cash Flow
FCF is crucial, trust Warren Buffett's choices.
FCF can either be returned to shareholders, via dividends or share repurchases, or it can be reinvested in the business.
Share Buyback
Share buyback at discounted prices are clearly preferable to dividends. If the company buys back undervalued stock, sellers suffer while long-term shareholders benefit. If the company buys its stock at inflated price, sellers benefit and long-term holders lose out.
Value investors generally look for companies that consistently repurchase their stocks during periods of undervaluation.