The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It

by Phillip Longman

Overpopulation has long been a global concern. But between modern medicine and reduced fertility, world population may in fact be shrinking--and is almost certain to do so by the time today's children retire. The troubling implications for our economy and culture include:* The possibility of a fundamentalist revival due to the decline of secular fertility* The threat to the free market as the supply of workers and consumers declines* The eventual collapse of the American health care system as inordinate expenses are incurred by an aging populationPhillip Longman's uncompromisingly sensible solutions fly in the face of traditional ideas. State intervention is necessary, he argues, to combat the effects of an aging population. We must provide incentives for young families, and we cannot close our eyes and hope for the best as an entire generation approaches retirement age.The Empty Cradle changes the terms of one of the most important environmental, economic, and social debates of our day.

Genres: Nonfiction, Society, Sociology

256 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2004

Reviews

[Robin Damgaard · Rating 2 out of 5]

This is an interesting, easy-to-read book which details the global phenomenon of diminishing fertility, its causes and its consequences. To summarize: fertility rates are dropping everywhere, it's because people are selfish and stupid, and because of it we're pretty much screwed, at least in the first world.

The book doesn't propose much in the way of solutions, probably because the author is a liberal and it was his type of thinking that got us in this situation to begin with (one of his primary worries is a rise of fundamentalism, by which he means, and increase in the relative number of religious people). He writes about how changes in laws and financial benefits have been unable to reverse the trend anywhere in the world, but then recommends changing the laws and offering more financial benefits as the only possible solution. Maybe he needs to reread the first part.

[John Nelson · Rating 3 out of 5]

Opinions on population growth generally fall into two groups. Some people say "the more the merrier." They favor continued - and indeed unlimited - population growth because a growing population helps to drive economic growth and provides an ever-larger number of taxpayers, workers, and consumers. Others say "the fewer the better." They favor low population growth or even decline because a large and growing human population inevitably stresses the environment and because excessive immigration leads to cultural fragmentation.

I generally support the position of the fewer the better. Indeed, relying on endless population growth to generate economic growth and provide an ever-larger number of workers and taxpayers to support retirement programs like social security and medicare seems to me to be nothing more than a pyramid scheme. Like all pyramid schemes, the system inevitably must fail. The only question is when - while population is still relatively reasonable, or not until that population reaches a level seen only in dystopian science fiction?

In The Empty Cradle, Phillip Longman argues for the other side. However, this book still fills a worthwhile niche. Population growth and demographics tend to be overlooked in day-to-day debate despite the enormous long-term implications of these subjects. Longman performs a valuable service by bring attention to these issues.

The Empty Cradle was published in 2004, which limits its its topicality. Much has changed since then. Most importantly, China's population has reached the point of zero growth, and may actually be declining. (Deficiencies in the statistical information provided by the Chinese government make the answer somewhat unclear.) The Chinese government has responded by eliminating its one-child rule and seeking to encourage its citizens to have more children; the effect, if any, these changes will have is an open but important question. Also, although India's population continues to grow, its birthrate has declined to the long-term replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Due to rapid demographic changes such as these, the subject of population growth can be addressed best in monographs, which can be published in a continuous series, rather than a book which can include more detail but cannot address new developments.

[Thomas Keller · Rating 4 out of 5]

Want to know what is coming? The population implosion will set new rules. Imagine growing up in a family where you do not have uncles, cousins, nephews, to visit for Thanksgiving. The math can be done now.

[Winston Jen · Rating 1 out of 5]

Anyone with even a rudimentary grasp of exponential mathematical functions and common sense would understand that this "documentary" has but a miniscule basis in fact. Although economic growth has been dependent on population growth thus far, this is clearly not a sustainable model, not for individuals, not for the environment, and certainly not for any country. If the filmmakers are worried about the economy, I would direct them to countries such as India, which has less than a third of the US' land area, but well over three times its population.

More people = less resources on average for everyone, which reduces the average level of happiness. At the rate we're going, only a miniscule handful of wealthy capitalists will be able to live a cushy lifestyle (the rest will die from environmental catastrophies, war, famine, and other undesirable methods of population correction). The predictions of Thomas Malthus will come true sooner or later. When and how it occurs is up to us. Either we stop breeding like bacteria, or we will go extinct.

As for the claim that "the world population is shrinking", a more brazen lie could not be made (except perhaps for a Catholic child rapist denying his crime while caught in the act). The world's population eclipsed 7 billion in 2011. Millions go hungry, many thousands die of starvation daily. And yet Longman continues to hide his head in the sand of encroaching desertification. Such ignorance and deceit will make things far worse for us in both the short and long term. We must wake up and make a difference, now.

[Kristi · Rating 4 out of 5]

Longman is a secular, mostly liberal (but not knee-jerk) economist. He discusses why we don't have to worry about a population explosion but rather that declining birth rates (especially but not only in the West) are problematic. He discusses why this is happening including the values of secular society -- because it's secular people who aren't having enough children to replace themselves. He contrasts how the religious "fundamentalists" of the world, such as Muslims and evangelical Christians, have different values that lead them to have many more children -- so that, he argues, the secular worldview will literally die out.

Longman proposes governmental intervention to encourage secular folks to have more babies (I've read that he's recently said that he doesn't think that this would help, but that rather the only thing that would encourage folks to have more children is to adopt a more traditional model for women's roles.)

I don't agree with everything he says, but he's an intelligent and thoughtful writer. One reason why this book is interesting to me is b/c he's able to critique the liberal/secular world in which he lives and thinks.

[Ushan · Rating 3 out of 5]

In the developed world, fewer people have children than are needed to keep the population stable, and much of the developing world is becoming like this, too. The United States has a higher birth rate than many European nations, but the general pattern is still there. If this goes on for quite some time, society (economy, government) will change considerably and for worse: there will be less innovation, fewer skilled workers, and of course smaller old-age pensions. Longman proposes that couples with children pay less Social Security taxes than childless couples (since the former already invest in the new generation of workers whose earnings will be taxed to pay the benefits for the latter), and a general return to Victorian values. Whether or not the world listens to Mr. Longman has to say, he correctly notes that there will be more conservatives in the next generation than liberals, since the former breed more than the latter and there are not enough defections from the former group to the latter to compensate for the difference.

[Matthew · Rating 5 out of 5]

A must-read for anyone interested in economics, demographics, environmentalism, or overpopulation. This book lays out the sound reasoning which suggests that overpopulation may be a myth, and that the voices of demographers (who have consistently shown that the world will hit a peak population in the next 30-50 years and then begin falling due to declining birth rates) are being ignored. Further, the author lays out a convincing case that falling populations will necessitate slowed economic growth at best, and massive economic shrinkage at worst, necessitating higher unemployment, lower wages, and a significantly worse standard of living for all. Intriguing material.

[Becky · Rating 4 out of 5]

I have to say this was an eye-opening book. Mass opinion says soaring population rates threaten the world's economy; in fact, I can remember learning that very thing as undisputed truth in high school. Turns out that if Longman is correct (and he certainly seems to have documented his hypotheses well), it's the opposite -- falling birthrates threaten world prosperity. That's WORLD prosperity, not just U.S. Definitely thought-provoking.

[Sara McDonald · Rating 3 out of 5]

Very fascinating look at the demographic future that we face. The book is certainly biased toward the negative impacts of declining fertility. It's a quick read and thought-provoking for future study but ultimately I wouldn't take everything in this book at its word.

[John · Rating 5 out of 5]

Get ready for a wrinkly bunch of white people.

[Kendra · Rating 3 out of 5]

Makes you think. I don't agree with all his stats and such, but a different perspective than the main stream thinking.