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The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
A controversial hit that sparked debate among businessmen, environmentalists, and bloggers, The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler is an eye-opening look at the unprecedented challenges we face in the years ahead, as oil runs out and the global systems built on it are forced to change radically.
336 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2003
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2976 people want to read
About the author
James Howard Kunstler
59 books372 followersJames Howard Kunstler (born 1948) is an American author, social critic, and blogger who is perhaps best known for his book The Geography of Nowhere, a history of suburbia and urban development in the United States. He is prominently featured in the peak oil documentary, The End of Suburbia, widely circulated on the internet. In his most recent non-fiction book, The Long Emergency (2005), he argues that declining oil production is likely to result in the end of industrialized society and force Americans to live in localized, agrarian communities.
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August 1, 2008
Kunstler is like that super-intelligent, yet vitriolic friend whose opinions you totally jibe with but find yourself apologizing to others after he's totally ripped them a new one at the cocktail party you hosted last saturday night.
Yeah, he's kind of bitter. But then again, he's so right. His take on 20th century suburbia and the erosion of American culture is spot on.
And here? Well, he might be right. And if he is, we are all SO SCREWED (well at least everybody in the U.S. outside of Saratoga Springs, NY). His well-researched take on the crisis of peak oil is indispensable reading; however, his rant takes a bit of a turn when he attempts to characterize how different areas of the U.S. will respond to the crisis based upon a bizarre attempt at "geographical pyschology" (i.e. gun nuts and religious freaks in the south, shallow materialists in the west, and educated and civic minded puritans in the northeast). Kind of embarassing.
So yes, very important reading for any of us concerned about the trouble brewing on the horizon- or at least the inevitable end of United States global hegemony. However, as a parent of young children residing in the megalopolis of Phoenix, I have to only hope that his post-apocalyptic vision of a "Mad Max" film played out against a suburban backdrop is just a hyperbolic rant from that angry dude over by the cheese plate.
Yeah, he's kind of bitter. But then again, he's so right. His take on 20th century suburbia and the erosion of American culture is spot on.
And here? Well, he might be right. And if he is, we are all SO SCREWED (well at least everybody in the U.S. outside of Saratoga Springs, NY). His well-researched take on the crisis of peak oil is indispensable reading; however, his rant takes a bit of a turn when he attempts to characterize how different areas of the U.S. will respond to the crisis based upon a bizarre attempt at "geographical pyschology" (i.e. gun nuts and religious freaks in the south, shallow materialists in the west, and educated and civic minded puritans in the northeast). Kind of embarassing.
So yes, very important reading for any of us concerned about the trouble brewing on the horizon- or at least the inevitable end of United States global hegemony. However, as a parent of young children residing in the megalopolis of Phoenix, I have to only hope that his post-apocalyptic vision of a "Mad Max" film played out against a suburban backdrop is just a hyperbolic rant from that angry dude over by the cheese plate.
September 23, 2007
The Long Emergency / by James Kunstler -- If Thomas Friedman’s The World is Flat is the ultimate argument for the reality and virtues of globalization then James Kunstler’s The Long Emergency provides the decisive counter-argument--as the world runs out of fossil fuels globalization is doomed. The main thrusts of Kunstler’s argument are as follows: oil and gas production have peaked and will soon begin to fall, our civilization is deeply dependent on that production, alternative energy sources cannot fully substitute for the shortfall, the oil age has allowed our world to become unsustainably overpopulated, and climate change and other types of environmental destruction will complicate the transition back to an appropriately populated sustainable world.
The book does an especially good job of explaining how deeply dependent the world economy is on oil and natural gas. For example, with regards to agriculture Kunstler writes, “To put it simply, Americans have been eating oil and natural gas for the past century, at an ever-accelerating pace.” He goes on to explain that to produce one calorie of grain American agriculture expends 16 calories of energy; to produce one calorie of meat we expend seventy calories of energy. Further, most of our pesticides and fertilizers are fossil fuel based and there are no obvious alternative substitutes. With regards to suburbia he explains how it is best understood as the “greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world” and how without cheap fossil fuels suburbs are completely unsustainable.
The weakest part of the book is his look at alternative energy sources. For some reason he ignores wave surge generation of electricity, but feels compelled to discuss ZPE energy generation (an unlikely scheme to produce energy from dark matter). Nevertheless, he does a good job of explaining why coal is not an adequate alternative to petroleum, why hydrogen is a pipe dream, and how wind, solar, and nuclear energy are dependent on the fossil fuel industry. Kunstler is probably too pessimistic with regards to alternative energy production. Nevertheless, to use an example from Friedman’s book; you can be sure that ordering a computer from Dell over the internet, having it assembled from parts manufactured all over the world in Malaysia, flying the PC to Tennessee, and then a week later having it delivered to your doorstep via Fedex is not a scenario that will likely be possible in 20 years. The energy costs will be prohibitive. The other thing you can be sure of is that the transition from 6.5 billion people to more like 2 billion people in a relatively short time is going to be a very nasty business.
Finally, there is another book to be considered with regards to Kunstler’s thesis, Ray Kurzweil’s The Age of Spiritual Machines. Kurzweil’s book argues for a transition to the singularity by the mid-21st century. The singularity can be defined as the point in time when artificial intelligences become thousands of times more intelligent than humans and in effect begin to run the world (many humans in fact will “download” their consciousnesses into the intelligent grid). At that point in time all understanding of how a posthuman dominated world will proceed becomes impossible. The question then becomes which view of the future will occur, Friedman’s vision of economic growth and globalization forever, Kunstler’s savage transition to a smaller population immersed in autonomous local economies, or Kurzweil’s posthuman future? Friedman’s position may hold in the short run, but in the medium term it becomes pollyannish. Kunstler’s future is pessimistic but plausible and may already have begun, Kurzweil’s position is optimistic but possible in the medium term but unless we literally destroy ourselves almost certain in the longer term. Regardless, humanity is in for a wild ride for the next thirty years.
The book does an especially good job of explaining how deeply dependent the world economy is on oil and natural gas. For example, with regards to agriculture Kunstler writes, “To put it simply, Americans have been eating oil and natural gas for the past century, at an ever-accelerating pace.” He goes on to explain that to produce one calorie of grain American agriculture expends 16 calories of energy; to produce one calorie of meat we expend seventy calories of energy. Further, most of our pesticides and fertilizers are fossil fuel based and there are no obvious alternative substitutes. With regards to suburbia he explains how it is best understood as the “greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world” and how without cheap fossil fuels suburbs are completely unsustainable.
The weakest part of the book is his look at alternative energy sources. For some reason he ignores wave surge generation of electricity, but feels compelled to discuss ZPE energy generation (an unlikely scheme to produce energy from dark matter). Nevertheless, he does a good job of explaining why coal is not an adequate alternative to petroleum, why hydrogen is a pipe dream, and how wind, solar, and nuclear energy are dependent on the fossil fuel industry. Kunstler is probably too pessimistic with regards to alternative energy production. Nevertheless, to use an example from Friedman’s book; you can be sure that ordering a computer from Dell over the internet, having it assembled from parts manufactured all over the world in Malaysia, flying the PC to Tennessee, and then a week later having it delivered to your doorstep via Fedex is not a scenario that will likely be possible in 20 years. The energy costs will be prohibitive. The other thing you can be sure of is that the transition from 6.5 billion people to more like 2 billion people in a relatively short time is going to be a very nasty business.
Finally, there is another book to be considered with regards to Kunstler’s thesis, Ray Kurzweil’s The Age of Spiritual Machines. Kurzweil’s book argues for a transition to the singularity by the mid-21st century. The singularity can be defined as the point in time when artificial intelligences become thousands of times more intelligent than humans and in effect begin to run the world (many humans in fact will “download” their consciousnesses into the intelligent grid). At that point in time all understanding of how a posthuman dominated world will proceed becomes impossible. The question then becomes which view of the future will occur, Friedman’s vision of economic growth and globalization forever, Kunstler’s savage transition to a smaller population immersed in autonomous local economies, or Kurzweil’s posthuman future? Friedman’s position may hold in the short run, but in the medium term it becomes pollyannish. Kunstler’s future is pessimistic but plausible and may already have begun, Kurzweil’s position is optimistic but possible in the medium term but unless we literally destroy ourselves almost certain in the longer term. Regardless, humanity is in for a wild ride for the next thirty years.
November 2, 2007
The 5 stars you give to the Rolling Stones'"Exile on Main Street" are different from the 5 stars you give to the Tallis Scholars' recording of the 1605 Masses of William Byrd. This is a 5-star popularizer, not a 5-star science book. But the science is correct, and the writing is terrific. Scary, scary shit, and it's all true.
July 6, 2016
While I liked World Made by Hand, which is a fiction story based on this author's ideas for how the world is going to hell in a hand basket, I just can't take his ravings in a factual setting. Too many half-truths & outright idiocies in every section. I've tried to peck away at this book for years, but it's just not worth the space it takes up on my table.
With less fanaticism, it could be excellent. Kunstler has identified quite a few problems that I agree with, but he takes them to extremes, turning them into civilization shattering issues instead of minor hardships. He's like the TV news that blows a few cent rise at the gas pump up into a major crisis. In reality, gas prices haven't kept pace with the rest of our inflated prices, but it is one thing we tend to notice more.
We do live in a very delicate balance. The Furrow, a magazine put out by John Deere (I got subscribed because I own a couple of their tractors.) had an article on how the boom in corn due to alternative energy was worrisome because of the amount of funding & land it took away from wheat. Wheat or the gluten derived from it seems to be in most processed foods. Apparently only some top notch research & biological fiddling is keeping ahead of wheat rust. John Deere has quite a big stake in both crops, so I believe their take on it. A problem with wheat production is a major problem, but not enough to shatter civilization.
If nothing else, he has identified quite a few issues that we should pay attention to. Most of us can't do anything about most of them, though. (How much influence do you have on any of the many steps in wheat production?) On the other hand, he espouses black & white answers for questions that cover the rainbow. Yes, the gov't is too intrusive & overburdens everyone with too much paperwork. Even so, they don't inspect all incoming shipments well or with any regularity. Does that mean we should remove all their oversight? I don't think so, but apparently he does.
All of the book that I read is just too unreal, so I can't recommend anyone wasting much time on it. If you can pick up a second hand copy & skim some of the high points, it probably wouldn't hurt though.
With less fanaticism, it could be excellent. Kunstler has identified quite a few problems that I agree with, but he takes them to extremes, turning them into civilization shattering issues instead of minor hardships. He's like the TV news that blows a few cent rise at the gas pump up into a major crisis. In reality, gas prices haven't kept pace with the rest of our inflated prices, but it is one thing we tend to notice more.
We do live in a very delicate balance. The Furrow, a magazine put out by John Deere (I got subscribed because I own a couple of their tractors.) had an article on how the boom in corn due to alternative energy was worrisome because of the amount of funding & land it took away from wheat. Wheat or the gluten derived from it seems to be in most processed foods. Apparently only some top notch research & biological fiddling is keeping ahead of wheat rust. John Deere has quite a big stake in both crops, so I believe their take on it. A problem with wheat production is a major problem, but not enough to shatter civilization.
If nothing else, he has identified quite a few issues that we should pay attention to. Most of us can't do anything about most of them, though. (How much influence do you have on any of the many steps in wheat production?) On the other hand, he espouses black & white answers for questions that cover the rainbow. Yes, the gov't is too intrusive & overburdens everyone with too much paperwork. Even so, they don't inspect all incoming shipments well or with any regularity. Does that mean we should remove all their oversight? I don't think so, but apparently he does.
All of the book that I read is just too unreal, so I can't recommend anyone wasting much time on it. If you can pick up a second hand copy & skim some of the high points, it probably wouldn't hurt though.
July 28, 2021
This book was haunting as much it was eye-opening. If you look around, you’ll notice everything that industrialism as afforded us: air conditioning, suburban living, fast-fashion, NAFTA - all predicated on the notion we will have cheap oil in perpetuity. Peak oil theory answered all my questions with regards to why the US depends on the Middle East for oil exports, as well as a limited understanding of the 2003 invasion of Iraq - to build a military presence to oversee the unobstructed development and export of crude oil from Saudi Arabia.
Fortunately, as dark and upsetting as this book might be to some readers, many things have not happened or have ameliorated to the point where many scenarios in “The Long Emergency” can be dismissed. No, we did not hit global peak oil as of yet, as OPEC now predicts that world oil supply will peak in another half-century, and possibly even sooner on the demand side (more consumers switching permanently to alternative energy sources). 2019 was arguably the date for peak oil, principally because of COVID-19’s affects on the economy as a whole. We have Tesla that made electric cars much more affordable, chic, and mainstream such that every consumer now dreams of owning an all-electric vehicle and to cripple the greedy endeavours of Big Oil.
Fortunately, as dark and upsetting as this book might be to some readers, many things have not happened or have ameliorated to the point where many scenarios in “The Long Emergency” can be dismissed. No, we did not hit global peak oil as of yet, as OPEC now predicts that world oil supply will peak in another half-century, and possibly even sooner on the demand side (more consumers switching permanently to alternative energy sources). 2019 was arguably the date for peak oil, principally because of COVID-19’s affects on the economy as a whole. We have Tesla that made electric cars much more affordable, chic, and mainstream such that every consumer now dreams of owning an all-electric vehicle and to cripple the greedy endeavours of Big Oil.
July 15, 2011
This is not an optimistic book. But I don't view it as a pessimistic book either. It is simply a realistic explanation of where things stand and where, in all likelihood, we are headed.
Dramatic change is coming to the world, but especially to the people of the United States who remain steadfast in their denial that this modern, fossil-fuel dependent, suburban lifestyle is inherently unsustainable. Peak oil, which we are currently at (or perhaps slightly past), will be the main culprit for this change. We can't wish it away. Comparable substitutes for oil are not going to magically appear to save us.
The world, but especially Americans, collectively, are like fools who received a huge cash windfall, immediately spent all of it as fast as they could, all the while assuming that it would either never run out or that some other gift would show up before things got too tight. This is exactly what we have done with oil.
We will be forced to adapt to the new reality, but it is not going to be easy. Being aware of what is happening is the best way to be prepared. Reading this book is a great way to begin to be prepared.
Dramatic change is coming to the world, but especially to the people of the United States who remain steadfast in their denial that this modern, fossil-fuel dependent, suburban lifestyle is inherently unsustainable. Peak oil, which we are currently at (or perhaps slightly past), will be the main culprit for this change. We can't wish it away. Comparable substitutes for oil are not going to magically appear to save us.
The world, but especially Americans, collectively, are like fools who received a huge cash windfall, immediately spent all of it as fast as they could, all the while assuming that it would either never run out or that some other gift would show up before things got too tight. This is exactly what we have done with oil.
We will be forced to adapt to the new reality, but it is not going to be easy. Being aware of what is happening is the best way to be prepared. Reading this book is a great way to begin to be prepared.
July 30, 2008
A humanity hating rant about the end of the world as we know it. Kunstler maintains that oil is running out (I'll give him that), and that the result of these declining oil supplies will be nothing short of wiping out most of the human race and starting over from scratch. He is very alarmist in predictions that he can't possibly have any basis for; por ejemplo, he predicts upcoming epidemics in which world leaders inoculate "the chosen ones" while letting everyone else die because the earth cannot sustain our fossil fuel-obtained population levels. He also predicts Asian pirates plundering the coast of California. The only safe region during the so-called Long Emergency will be where he happens to live, in the original 13 colonies (he lives in upstate New York, to be precise). Lucky him.
According to Kunstler, anyone who is researching alternative fuels for cars is wasting their time and a fool because he doesn't think that cars are our future. He'd rather see walkable communities than people getting around in vodka-powered vehicles.
It's too bad that an important message such as this is being delivered by a borderline quack. Kunstler has some valid points, but his logic is colored by his hatred for middle America and modernism in general. I get the feeling he'd be happier in 19-century Paris. But he's stuck here in the land of ugly architecture, 12-lane freeways in the desert, and Starbucks on every corner, and goddammit, he's not going to take it anymore. He actually said the following about Los Angeles on his website (kunstler.com) on June 12, 2005:
"Despite their lame attempts to rebuild a few pieces of the 2000-mile-long streetcar system that they gleefully destroyed in the 1950s, life here is all about cars and it will never not be about cars -- until the reality of our oil predicament falls on the hapless public like a hammer of God and the people of California die for their fucking cars in their fucking cars and over their fucking cars."
What does he do all day as he giddily fantasizes about all of us dying in our cars? Whittle? Pluck his home-made banjo? I'd really like to know.
It's true that our world has been built around a cheap commodity that will run out in our lifetime, and we don't know what's going to happen as fossil fuels become more scarce. We are all in denial, mostly because we can't imagine a world without cheap gas and all the luxuries that that provides.
Our lifestyles will probably drastically change. I won't be buying an SUV or moving to New Mexico anytime soon, but I'm also not going to live the next 20 years preparing for the collapse of life as we know it.
According to Kunstler, anyone who is researching alternative fuels for cars is wasting their time and a fool because he doesn't think that cars are our future. He'd rather see walkable communities than people getting around in vodka-powered vehicles.
It's too bad that an important message such as this is being delivered by a borderline quack. Kunstler has some valid points, but his logic is colored by his hatred for middle America and modernism in general. I get the feeling he'd be happier in 19-century Paris. But he's stuck here in the land of ugly architecture, 12-lane freeways in the desert, and Starbucks on every corner, and goddammit, he's not going to take it anymore. He actually said the following about Los Angeles on his website (kunstler.com) on June 12, 2005:
"Despite their lame attempts to rebuild a few pieces of the 2000-mile-long streetcar system that they gleefully destroyed in the 1950s, life here is all about cars and it will never not be about cars -- until the reality of our oil predicament falls on the hapless public like a hammer of God and the people of California die for their fucking cars in their fucking cars and over their fucking cars."
What does he do all day as he giddily fantasizes about all of us dying in our cars? Whittle? Pluck his home-made banjo? I'd really like to know.
It's true that our world has been built around a cheap commodity that will run out in our lifetime, and we don't know what's going to happen as fossil fuels become more scarce. We are all in denial, mostly because we can't imagine a world without cheap gas and all the luxuries that that provides.
Our lifestyles will probably drastically change. I won't be buying an SUV or moving to New Mexico anytime soon, but I'm also not going to live the next 20 years preparing for the collapse of life as we know it.
March 23, 2009
Kunstler's central thesis in this very alarming book (see the title) is that peak oil will destroy civilization as we know it. If you don't know what peak oil is, google it and find out. If you believe it's a conspiracy of the left wing media, you're an idiot. Unfriend me. For reference, peak oil is in all likelihood happening right this very instant, maybe starting as early as 2003, but Kunstler emphasizes that it's impossible to be certain on the issue until we're sliding down the other side of Hubble's production curve.
Kunstler argues quite convincingly that the end of cheap fossil fuels, specifically natural gas and petroleum, will be enough by itself to make impossible industrial life as we know it, which has been characterized from the very beginning by abundant, cheap energy. These arguments are very straightforward and clearly reasoned, and hard to counter. On top of this basic premise, he spends over half the book pontificating about other "converging catastrophes" mentioned in the title that have nothing to do with the end of fossil fuels, but which we have the bad luck of having to deal with concurrently. These tangential chapters are interesting to read, but they're obvious asides that don't really contribute much to his final chapter, "living in the long emergency."
His most interesting analysis is on a topic he's already written several other books on: suburbia. He repeatedly refers to the suburbs as "the single largest misallocation of resources in the history of humankind," and backs up this bit of polemic with hard environmental and economic facts and not-so-hard spiritual and aesthetic arguments. He also spends a fascinating chapter exploring the nature of capitalism as we practice it around the world today (neoliberalism, globalism) and how it both relies on and accelerates the oil crisis we now live in -- also including a brief history of the sprawl-based US economy of the seventies onward and a prophetic prediction of the housing bubble and the fallout on wall street (the book was published in 2004, when everyone in the mainstream media was still encouraging zero-down mortgages and leaders of finance would publically berate anyone who dared imply the bubble wasn't a permanent feature of our economy).
The only point of Kunstler's with which I really took issue, and therefore my last, clinging thread of hope for the future of our society as we know it, is his treatment of solar power, which he dimisses as impractical. Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil, which I read in 2005 or so, indicates that even with 2003 solar cell technology, a solar installation the size of New Mexico (situated somewhere about as sunny) would generate enough electricity to meet all of our 2003 energy use, including fossil fuels. New Mexico is a big area, obviously, but covering it with solar panels is within our current technological means if led by the federal government in a massive project akin to the Apollo mission or the Manhattan project. It's doable. I'm wondering if Kunstler just didn't do his homework on this issue, as the math (energy from the sun striking the earth's surface) is unambiguous on this point. His main beef seems to be with inadequate battery technology, since transportation is the aspect of our energy use most cripplingly reliant on fossil fuels. He repeatedly emphasizes the "diminishing returns" of technology to pull us out of a crisis of this nature, but advances in battery technology in recent years shows the opposite trend: exponential progress in capacity and price, as with computer power. Particularly, so-called super-capacitors made of carbon nanotubules are already feasible in a labaratory setting, and if a means to mass-manufacture them is discovered we have a defacto replacement for batteries that will have much greater capacity than LiIon or lead acid technology, last an almost unlimited number of charges, and charge (or discharge) in a matter of seconds. Or maybe what Kunstler's driving at is that in the decline of oil availability, our ability as a society to produce these new technologies and embark on grand solar power projects will quickly erode.
Consider this a must read if you want to understand the events of the next two decades in a context outside the identity-politics scapegoating with which it will be covered by our media.
Kunstler argues quite convincingly that the end of cheap fossil fuels, specifically natural gas and petroleum, will be enough by itself to make impossible industrial life as we know it, which has been characterized from the very beginning by abundant, cheap energy. These arguments are very straightforward and clearly reasoned, and hard to counter. On top of this basic premise, he spends over half the book pontificating about other "converging catastrophes" mentioned in the title that have nothing to do with the end of fossil fuels, but which we have the bad luck of having to deal with concurrently. These tangential chapters are interesting to read, but they're obvious asides that don't really contribute much to his final chapter, "living in the long emergency."
His most interesting analysis is on a topic he's already written several other books on: suburbia. He repeatedly refers to the suburbs as "the single largest misallocation of resources in the history of humankind," and backs up this bit of polemic with hard environmental and economic facts and not-so-hard spiritual and aesthetic arguments. He also spends a fascinating chapter exploring the nature of capitalism as we practice it around the world today (neoliberalism, globalism) and how it both relies on and accelerates the oil crisis we now live in -- also including a brief history of the sprawl-based US economy of the seventies onward and a prophetic prediction of the housing bubble and the fallout on wall street (the book was published in 2004, when everyone in the mainstream media was still encouraging zero-down mortgages and leaders of finance would publically berate anyone who dared imply the bubble wasn't a permanent feature of our economy).
The only point of Kunstler's with which I really took issue, and therefore my last, clinging thread of hope for the future of our society as we know it, is his treatment of solar power, which he dimisses as impractical. Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil, which I read in 2005 or so, indicates that even with 2003 solar cell technology, a solar installation the size of New Mexico (situated somewhere about as sunny) would generate enough electricity to meet all of our 2003 energy use, including fossil fuels. New Mexico is a big area, obviously, but covering it with solar panels is within our current technological means if led by the federal government in a massive project akin to the Apollo mission or the Manhattan project. It's doable. I'm wondering if Kunstler just didn't do his homework on this issue, as the math (energy from the sun striking the earth's surface) is unambiguous on this point. His main beef seems to be with inadequate battery technology, since transportation is the aspect of our energy use most cripplingly reliant on fossil fuels. He repeatedly emphasizes the "diminishing returns" of technology to pull us out of a crisis of this nature, but advances in battery technology in recent years shows the opposite trend: exponential progress in capacity and price, as with computer power. Particularly, so-called super-capacitors made of carbon nanotubules are already feasible in a labaratory setting, and if a means to mass-manufacture them is discovered we have a defacto replacement for batteries that will have much greater capacity than LiIon or lead acid technology, last an almost unlimited number of charges, and charge (or discharge) in a matter of seconds. Or maybe what Kunstler's driving at is that in the decline of oil availability, our ability as a society to produce these new technologies and embark on grand solar power projects will quickly erode.
Consider this a must read if you want to understand the events of the next two decades in a context outside the identity-politics scapegoating with which it will be covered by our media.
January 9, 2013
After letting it simmer for a few weeks I think these are the basic irks that converge into JHK's doomed imagined 21st century future:
-Mismanaged resources.
-Misappropriated space.
-Abuse of energy and fossil fuels.
-Irresponsible use of money that results in major net losses for the economy.
-Plans for the future skewed by fantastical ideas in technology.
-Loss of community and its replacement with (energy-backed) novelty and convenience. (Like the attachment to auto-vehicles)
-And: too much inefficiency in achieving ends for a short-term basis, not enough thought put into long-term effective goals for sustaining the current energy-intensive lifestyles we live. (And using our resources more effectively on a larger timeline)
I may be overlapping this review a little bit with another book by the same author, Too Much Magic, since I read them at about the same time. But the general idea is the same (TMM focuses more on our over-reliance on technological ideals and naive belief that human ingenuity can solve ANY problem). The Long Emergency is more focused on the abuse of cheap oil. It follows two of JHK's previous books about the gross inefficiency of the suburbs. The suburbs, according to Kunstler, are a fluke in the timeline of American growth that have been nurtured and sustained for way too long at an ultimate cost: the disintegration of American cities and a vacuum for the continent's rich supply of resources.
But the Long Emergency takes this vision further into the realms of finance and energy research. At the end of the book JHK even maps out his own futuristic vision of a defeated and broken America separated into five distinctly post-oil regions, all which will have descended into some pre-societal state of autocracy and chaos.
All in all the book is a nice, clear breakdown of several unsure institutions upon which the fate of the U.S. depends. The ballooning finance system, the geo-politics of the oil industry, and the space use of the land. All of these things are spelled out clearer and more concise than I've encountered them anywhere before. The book really does feel like a crash course by a very passionate college professor. JHK has a knack for revealing their weakness and tying them together into one overextended whole that is over-complex and sure to fail. The message here is an important one, one about taking responsibility for the things that a greater than you that you cannot control alone. But the author thrives in his delivery as well. I closed the book craving more knowledge. (And in the sources referenced--both in support and in defense, I knew exactly where to look).
The tone is judgmental, but at core the author is a journalist digging for the truth and concerned for the direction of his country; and consequently the rest of the world who seems to be following us step by step. Kunstler does not want to see the U.S. collapse as he envisions it. He offers a solution but it is a solution that would take many Americans too much of an effort to make: managing a slow but gradual movement into a less resource-devouring system that the nation has become. It requires a mass contraction at all levels. This means a conscientious effort by every individual, every group, every organization and currently "progressive" moving company. JHK calls for a return to valuing local communities and a reemergence of bottom-up responsibility taking in terms of supplies, agriculture, governance, and overall balance.
The world has turned inside-out, and in the name of consumption global relations have turned too idealistic, selfish, and limitless. Nation by nation, the world is turning into a competitive race for tallest building--for most superficially impractical display of wealth. This is a recipe for disaster.
-Mismanaged resources.
-Misappropriated space.
-Abuse of energy and fossil fuels.
-Irresponsible use of money that results in major net losses for the economy.
-Plans for the future skewed by fantastical ideas in technology.
-Loss of community and its replacement with (energy-backed) novelty and convenience. (Like the attachment to auto-vehicles)
-And: too much inefficiency in achieving ends for a short-term basis, not enough thought put into long-term effective goals for sustaining the current energy-intensive lifestyles we live. (And using our resources more effectively on a larger timeline)
I may be overlapping this review a little bit with another book by the same author, Too Much Magic, since I read them at about the same time. But the general idea is the same (TMM focuses more on our over-reliance on technological ideals and naive belief that human ingenuity can solve ANY problem). The Long Emergency is more focused on the abuse of cheap oil. It follows two of JHK's previous books about the gross inefficiency of the suburbs. The suburbs, according to Kunstler, are a fluke in the timeline of American growth that have been nurtured and sustained for way too long at an ultimate cost: the disintegration of American cities and a vacuum for the continent's rich supply of resources.
But the Long Emergency takes this vision further into the realms of finance and energy research. At the end of the book JHK even maps out his own futuristic vision of a defeated and broken America separated into five distinctly post-oil regions, all which will have descended into some pre-societal state of autocracy and chaos.
All in all the book is a nice, clear breakdown of several unsure institutions upon which the fate of the U.S. depends. The ballooning finance system, the geo-politics of the oil industry, and the space use of the land. All of these things are spelled out clearer and more concise than I've encountered them anywhere before. The book really does feel like a crash course by a very passionate college professor. JHK has a knack for revealing their weakness and tying them together into one overextended whole that is over-complex and sure to fail. The message here is an important one, one about taking responsibility for the things that a greater than you that you cannot control alone. But the author thrives in his delivery as well. I closed the book craving more knowledge. (And in the sources referenced--both in support and in defense, I knew exactly where to look).
The tone is judgmental, but at core the author is a journalist digging for the truth and concerned for the direction of his country; and consequently the rest of the world who seems to be following us step by step. Kunstler does not want to see the U.S. collapse as he envisions it. He offers a solution but it is a solution that would take many Americans too much of an effort to make: managing a slow but gradual movement into a less resource-devouring system that the nation has become. It requires a mass contraction at all levels. This means a conscientious effort by every individual, every group, every organization and currently "progressive" moving company. JHK calls for a return to valuing local communities and a reemergence of bottom-up responsibility taking in terms of supplies, agriculture, governance, and overall balance.
The world has turned inside-out, and in the name of consumption global relations have turned too idealistic, selfish, and limitless. Nation by nation, the world is turning into a competitive race for tallest building--for most superficially impractical display of wealth. This is a recipe for disaster.
February 16, 2010
the first chapter is worth five stars as a stand-alone invocation - and freer than any other part of his writing of verbal posturing.
i've heard the complaints about his style & self-regard & sure. But I've been reading clever men all my life - & this is one i'm grateful to for this passionate appreciation of the arc of entropy compounded by excess and ignorance. He's a good teacher as well - rooting his vision in just enough science for even someone like me to follow.
much of what humanity has done it has done innocently - it takes a nearly spiritual view of the world to resist the sense of entitlement that has shaped our world to an arena of disposability and waste - and it makes sense that the US, with so much space and natural wealth, would produce generations increasingly ignorant of the morality of conservation instead of more aware. It also makes sense that such a world would dovetail with the oldest and most savage strains of disregard for human dignity as well.
i've seen this book shake minds to their foundations, and given that our material foundations are about to crumble, that can't be a bad thing.
i've heard the complaints about his style & self-regard & sure. But I've been reading clever men all my life - & this is one i'm grateful to for this passionate appreciation of the arc of entropy compounded by excess and ignorance. He's a good teacher as well - rooting his vision in just enough science for even someone like me to follow.
much of what humanity has done it has done innocently - it takes a nearly spiritual view of the world to resist the sense of entitlement that has shaped our world to an arena of disposability and waste - and it makes sense that the US, with so much space and natural wealth, would produce generations increasingly ignorant of the morality of conservation instead of more aware. It also makes sense that such a world would dovetail with the oldest and most savage strains of disregard for human dignity as well.
i've seen this book shake minds to their foundations, and given that our material foundations are about to crumble, that can't be a bad thing.
February 2, 2016
I read this book over a decade ago, but am just now adding it to Goodreads. This book is mostly about peak oil, but it could be generalized into a general "limits to growth" type argument. He completely ignores veganism, and I'd like to see a discussion of the biological limits to growth. But it is a good general exposition of "doomer" thinking in a plausible way, and any vegans who were interested could easily adapt this to his basic framework.
Kunstler is an excellent, if curmudgeonly, writer; he comes across as friendly, down-to-earth, doesn’t talk down to you but at the same time assumes you’re pretty smart. The book is now a bit out of date, but you could look back at Kunstler's predictions of doom as either somewhat validated (the Great Recession, tons of debt, anemic recovery) or not validated (oil production has increased slightly).
Chapters 1 and 2 discuss the nature of our oil-based society and the realities of peak oil — a good general summary of the technical issues. Chapter 3 discusses geopolitical ramifications, war and whatnot, the most important of which is chilling: "This is a much darker time than 1938, the eve of World War II. The current world population of 6.5 billion has no hope whatsoever of sustaining itself at current levels, and the fundamental conditions of life on earth are about to force the issue. The only questions are: What form will the inevitable attrition take, and how, and in which places, and when?"
Chapter 4 talks about why alternative fuels won’t rescue us. Basically, after "peak oil" hits, oil supply will decrease at a rate of 2% to 6% per year and there’s no realistic scenario in which alternative fuels can be ramped up rapidly enough to make up for this, much less actually increase the energy supply to sustain the world's expanding economy. We needed to start about 10 or 20 years ago. Remember those guys who said that the 1980's were the last decade to turn our culture around on the environmental issues? Well, guess what — they were right.
Chapter 5 talks about the bad effects of industrialism even before we get to "peak oil" — climate change, food supply, and all manner of modern diseases (AIDS, flu, mad cow). Chapter 6 discusses the economic fallout of our hallucinated high-entropy economy, such as the collapse of the housing market.
Chapter 7 is the most interesting chapter, in which he discusses living in the Long Emergency. "In the Long Emergency, land will be wealth," he says — not urban real estate, but land on which you can actually grow stuff. The big retail chains such as Wal-Mart, Target, K-Mart, and so forth, will go belly up. Large cities are in big trouble. Small cities surrounded by productive farmland have the best chance.
I don't think I agree with everything in the book, but it makes great reading and it is a good general exposition of the peak oil argument.
Kunstler is an excellent, if curmudgeonly, writer; he comes across as friendly, down-to-earth, doesn’t talk down to you but at the same time assumes you’re pretty smart. The book is now a bit out of date, but you could look back at Kunstler's predictions of doom as either somewhat validated (the Great Recession, tons of debt, anemic recovery) or not validated (oil production has increased slightly).
Chapters 1 and 2 discuss the nature of our oil-based society and the realities of peak oil — a good general summary of the technical issues. Chapter 3 discusses geopolitical ramifications, war and whatnot, the most important of which is chilling: "This is a much darker time than 1938, the eve of World War II. The current world population of 6.5 billion has no hope whatsoever of sustaining itself at current levels, and the fundamental conditions of life on earth are about to force the issue. The only questions are: What form will the inevitable attrition take, and how, and in which places, and when?"
Chapter 4 talks about why alternative fuels won’t rescue us. Basically, after "peak oil" hits, oil supply will decrease at a rate of 2% to 6% per year and there’s no realistic scenario in which alternative fuels can be ramped up rapidly enough to make up for this, much less actually increase the energy supply to sustain the world's expanding economy. We needed to start about 10 or 20 years ago. Remember those guys who said that the 1980's were the last decade to turn our culture around on the environmental issues? Well, guess what — they were right.
Chapter 5 talks about the bad effects of industrialism even before we get to "peak oil" — climate change, food supply, and all manner of modern diseases (AIDS, flu, mad cow). Chapter 6 discusses the economic fallout of our hallucinated high-entropy economy, such as the collapse of the housing market.
Chapter 7 is the most interesting chapter, in which he discusses living in the Long Emergency. "In the Long Emergency, land will be wealth," he says — not urban real estate, but land on which you can actually grow stuff. The big retail chains such as Wal-Mart, Target, K-Mart, and so forth, will go belly up. Large cities are in big trouble. Small cities surrounded by productive farmland have the best chance.
I don't think I agree with everything in the book, but it makes great reading and it is a good general exposition of the peak oil argument.
February 9, 2007
This booked sucked. It's basically the antithesis of Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near, so instead of converging miracles of science, it’s the converging catastrophes of man. I originally read this in an attempt to balance out my views, but I overshot the mark. The whole book knocks down straw men of the emerging technologies that will solve our energy and environmental problems, and then goes on to preach about the inevitable disasters with fallacious arguments and no scientific data. It does have some good points, we need to get away from fossil fuels quick, nuclear power and stored electric power is probably are best bet, while the hydrogen economy is still unproven and possibly unworkable. However, the degree of pessimism is uncalled for and irresponsible. Luckily I don't think anyone listens to this guy, and his predictions on oil supply are already wrong two years out.
May 31, 2009
I finished this book at 3AM on a Saturday night. I finished it in three days, completely in urgency, reading not compelled by beauty as might typically be the case when I read so rabidly, but by a sense of need. Like most books about peak oil/global warming/water shortage/global upheaval, this one was deeply troubling. It is, after all, something of an end-times scenario, but written competently through to the logical conclusions of our short-sighted accoutrements of modern civilization. Writing in 2005, Kunstler accurately predicts the current housing crisis, and describes our recent and coming struggles with oil with precision.
Kunstler is often decried as a doomsday nay-sayer--known for his previous books criticizing suburban sprawl and the impossibility of sustaining it, it might seem almost fair to say that Kunstler is blinded by his own bias in imagining a future where they become entirely obsolete and American society is forced to re-structure along every spoke of the wheel. But in reading "The Long Emergency" I was struck most often by the lack of screed-itude, the lack of extremism, and overrall how appropriately reasoned Kunstler seems to be. (Nevermind that Kunstler addresses the criticism that his predictions represent what he 'wants' to happen head-on: they are so bleak, only a true misanthrope could relish their coming to fruition.) Kunstler is far from a perfect messenger, though. His descriptions of what might happen in America regionally and in terms of racial strife will make any progressive squirm (his predictions betray a bit of a cocooned existence away from actual Latin-Americans and African Americans, and his characterization of the Southern states are pretty appalling even to the most self-deprecating Southerner--he calls us 'Crackers' for one...)
The book is not all prediction, of course--in fact, I'd say the bulk of it is spent in going over relevant recent history. Kunstler is obviously well-read, and there's a lot to be learned here, but this book loses a LOT of value in not having a bibliography, and very few footnotes to boot--Kunstler should have cited his information much more thoroughly.
Kunstler is often decried as a doomsday nay-sayer--known for his previous books criticizing suburban sprawl and the impossibility of sustaining it, it might seem almost fair to say that Kunstler is blinded by his own bias in imagining a future where they become entirely obsolete and American society is forced to re-structure along every spoke of the wheel. But in reading "The Long Emergency" I was struck most often by the lack of screed-itude, the lack of extremism, and overrall how appropriately reasoned Kunstler seems to be. (Nevermind that Kunstler addresses the criticism that his predictions represent what he 'wants' to happen head-on: they are so bleak, only a true misanthrope could relish their coming to fruition.) Kunstler is far from a perfect messenger, though. His descriptions of what might happen in America regionally and in terms of racial strife will make any progressive squirm (his predictions betray a bit of a cocooned existence away from actual Latin-Americans and African Americans, and his characterization of the Southern states are pretty appalling even to the most self-deprecating Southerner--he calls us 'Crackers' for one...)
The book is not all prediction, of course--in fact, I'd say the bulk of it is spent in going over relevant recent history. Kunstler is obviously well-read, and there's a lot to be learned here, but this book loses a LOT of value in not having a bibliography, and very few footnotes to boot--Kunstler should have cited his information much more thoroughly.
July 7, 2007
Kunstler's writing can be shrill, and sometimes he comes off as a bit of a jackass. But he has a sharp wit, and in this book he articulately makes the case for why we face a confluence of several crises in the coming years. This was the first doomsday peak oil book I read, and it made a big impression on me. If you are new to the subject, The Party's Over is a much better introduction. Sometimes Kunstler's predictions seem far-fetched (pirates? seriously?), and his arguments are less carefully built than Heinberg's. However, his blistering criticism of suburbia in this and previous books is well worth reading.
May 11, 2008
okay, so like -- there is a lot of good stuff in this book, stuff we all need to pay attention to. and kunstler is an entertaining writer. but then at the end of the book when he's writing about what might actually happen in the long emergency, he gets all essentialist on our asses and it sucks. like: people in the south will react like this, because of their inherent nature. people in the west will do this because it's in their blood or something. and so on. wtf. that all kinda ruined it for me.
September 16, 2010
THE LONG EMERGENCY: SURVIVING THE CONVERGING CATASTROPHES OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY BY JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLER: The Long Emergency is an eye-catching book with hits bright alarm-yellow cover and black and red title. It's a book about the future of the world, what's going to happen when we run out of oil, and what to do when this "Long Emergency" begins. The first part of the book goes into depth about when oil was discovered, how it was first used, when and how it was converted into the many products that use oil today. The reader learns what are the events that led up to the discovery of oil in the Middle East and the reason it is in its horrible state today.
After this enlightening history lesson, Kunstler goes on to explain that there is a specific oil production peak that will be reached, when half of the available oil would've been used up, and the other half -- which is harder to get -- will drive up gas and oil prices. According to a number of sources in the footnotes, this peak will be reached some time between the year 2000 and 2008. Kunstler says that they way we will be able to tell is through the oscillation of oil prices rising greatly, then dropping a little, then raising more, but only going down a little each time. Over the past year, this is exactly what has happened, and I'm pretty sure we're never going to see gas go below $2 again.
Kunstler goes on to point out that the supposed alternative forms of energy we're working on will be nowhere near to replacing the oil industry once we dispense with it. This is mainly due to the recent Republican Presidents, starting with Reagan who stopped most funding to alternative energy means and essentially killed the drive for it. Along with Bush Senior and our current idiot, they are all part of a white male arrogant group that believe we will never run out of oil, and it is merely a case of finding it in the earth, albeit by digging deeper and further (re: Alaska!); couple with this is these men's beliefs that the Rapture will arrive tomorrow and they'll be ascending to Heaven, leaving all their problems behind them. Though Clinton is also to blame for looking towards the future and working on prepare the civilized world for the inevitable.
Kunstler predicts all out pandemonium and chaos, worst felt in the United States, of course, where suburbia is in full force. When all the material goods and services we've taken for granted for so long collapse, and our society crashes around us, the Long Emergency will being. This is what Kunstler says. Though he provides little advice and assurance in how one can survive this event. Plus there's the fact that this nonfiction work doesn't have an index or bibliography at the end. I know all nonfiction works don't need this, but when it's a book predicting everything going to hell in my lifetime, I would at least like a list for further readings, or maybe some websites.
It will at least be interesting the see in the coming decades what will begin happening, and I know for now what I most want to get is a hybrid, because gas prices aren't going down ever again.
If you liked this review, and would like to read more, go to BookBanter.
After this enlightening history lesson, Kunstler goes on to explain that there is a specific oil production peak that will be reached, when half of the available oil would've been used up, and the other half -- which is harder to get -- will drive up gas and oil prices. According to a number of sources in the footnotes, this peak will be reached some time between the year 2000 and 2008. Kunstler says that they way we will be able to tell is through the oscillation of oil prices rising greatly, then dropping a little, then raising more, but only going down a little each time. Over the past year, this is exactly what has happened, and I'm pretty sure we're never going to see gas go below $2 again.
Kunstler goes on to point out that the supposed alternative forms of energy we're working on will be nowhere near to replacing the oil industry once we dispense with it. This is mainly due to the recent Republican Presidents, starting with Reagan who stopped most funding to alternative energy means and essentially killed the drive for it. Along with Bush Senior and our current idiot, they are all part of a white male arrogant group that believe we will never run out of oil, and it is merely a case of finding it in the earth, albeit by digging deeper and further (re: Alaska!); couple with this is these men's beliefs that the Rapture will arrive tomorrow and they'll be ascending to Heaven, leaving all their problems behind them. Though Clinton is also to blame for looking towards the future and working on prepare the civilized world for the inevitable.
Kunstler predicts all out pandemonium and chaos, worst felt in the United States, of course, where suburbia is in full force. When all the material goods and services we've taken for granted for so long collapse, and our society crashes around us, the Long Emergency will being. This is what Kunstler says. Though he provides little advice and assurance in how one can survive this event. Plus there's the fact that this nonfiction work doesn't have an index or bibliography at the end. I know all nonfiction works don't need this, but when it's a book predicting everything going to hell in my lifetime, I would at least like a list for further readings, or maybe some websites.
It will at least be interesting the see in the coming decades what will begin happening, and I know for now what I most want to get is a hybrid, because gas prices aren't going down ever again.
If you liked this review, and would like to read more, go to BookBanter.
May 7, 2010
The thing that makes The Long Emergency so alarming is that its central idea is hard to deny. The worldwide rate of oil production will soon enough begin to drop; this will make oil expensive; and this will make business as usual impossible. Transportation and agriculture are just two of the systems that depend thoroughly on oil for their functioning, and to date none of the energy alternatives we have envisioned is well-placed to step into the gap. Readers will find plenty to take issue with, including the author's easy generalizations about how people in various regions of the US are likely to respond to conditions of scarcity. But the book has motivated me to pull my head out of the sand and formulate a wise response (since, as Kunstler says elsewhere, "solutions" are out of the question). I think a lot hangs on how quickly we adjust our behavior to fit the reality.
September 2, 2014
This was a really interesting book. The part that lent it the most credibility were the comments about the coming housing crash just a few months before housing peaked. The one real oversight of the authors analysis is that he completely missed the coming of hydraulic fracturing as a method to obtain oil and natural gas. I would be really interested to see what the author thinks the effect of fraking will be. I personally think that adding fraking into the equation buys the time necessary to make the transition of "The Long Emergency" less of an emergency.
I suspect the author would find fault with my reasoning as he is relentlessly downbeat about any potential technological solution to energy production, with the potential exception of Nuclear Power.
On the whole I found my time with the book was well spent.
I suspect the author would find fault with my reasoning as he is relentlessly downbeat about any potential technological solution to energy production, with the potential exception of Nuclear Power.
On the whole I found my time with the book was well spent.
September 9, 2011
Books are powerful things. They can change you in ways that will affect you throughout your life. I can point to several books that have had a profound effect upon my belief systems and my interests. Tolkien was one such author. The Bible certainly made an impact upon me too. This book is another that has changed my outlook in ways that will certainly resonate for its remainder.
March 23, 2015
James Howard Kunstler wrote The Long Emergency, which describes the fossil fuel tsunami, and how it is likely to shape our way of life in the coming decades. Kunstler’s perspective is based on serious amounts of research. He describes the future that he expects to happen, not the kinder, gentler, more enlightened future that he wishes would happen. He lays the cards on the table, and predicts a tomorrow that is going to be more than a little challenging and unpleasant.
I’ve been reading promo material for Amory Lovins’ new book, Reinventing Fire, in which brilliant scientists and engineers design an amazing high tech future, and transform America into a super-green paradise on Earth. The turbo-charged magical thinking envisions that the Industrial Revolution and endless growth will never end — hopes, wishes, dreams, and fantasies scampering and yapping giddily around the yard, released from reality’s leash.
But the daily news is dancing to Kunstler’s beat. He has provided us with a stage upon which the unfolding dramas and tragedies of the 21st century can be performed. The book was published before the 2008 crash, but it very clearly indicated that a crash was coming — maybe even before the book hit the shelves at Borders (R.I.P.). It was interesting to read the book in 2011, when the world economic system is teetering on the brink of the abyss, the Middle East is going sideways, and resource shortages are stirring up conflicts in many regions — and we’re just days away from the herd reaching seven billion. The Long Emergency is much less theoretical today.
In Kunstler’s story, our problems largely started with the steam engine and Colonel Drake’s oil well. He doesn’t zoom farther out, to a 10,000 year view range. ‘Twas a dirty sweaty ancient farmer who kicked loose the stones that set off the avalanche that’s about to sweep away the world as we know it. We were already beyond the point of no return when the steam engines began hissing. But the whole process shifted explosively into high gear 200 years ago.
Kunstler would be satisfied if we could just turn back the clock to 1800, and live in a happy Currier & Ives world of horse powered farms and villages, with laughing children playing in the dirt roads. That would be an important first step for the healing process. It would prepare us for the more challenging transitions that follow — abandoning the mining of soils, water, fish, forests, and so on.
I was excited to read his analysis of Malthus, whom he concluded was completely correct! I’ve always worried that my understanding of Malthus was missing some vital pieces, because nearly everyone in the world says, over and over and over, that he was absolutely and totally wrong. I have tried so hard to find serious defects in his ideas, and I have repeatedly failed. I worried that my mental faculties were fading. It’s not easy thinking at odds with the herd. A basic misunderstanding has gone viral, put down strong roots, and nothing can kill it.
Kunstler serves us a level-headed reality-based image of tomorrow, and it is sobering. Despite its gloominess, the book has managed to sell quite well. The book’s subtitle is: “Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century.” But the contents don’t focus on revealing effective survival strategies. The core of the book describes that huge change is on the way, and explains why. Wake up, take off the blinders, throw your conventional thinking overboard, and prepare for interesting times.
I’ve been reading promo material for Amory Lovins’ new book, Reinventing Fire, in which brilliant scientists and engineers design an amazing high tech future, and transform America into a super-green paradise on Earth. The turbo-charged magical thinking envisions that the Industrial Revolution and endless growth will never end — hopes, wishes, dreams, and fantasies scampering and yapping giddily around the yard, released from reality’s leash.
But the daily news is dancing to Kunstler’s beat. He has provided us with a stage upon which the unfolding dramas and tragedies of the 21st century can be performed. The book was published before the 2008 crash, but it very clearly indicated that a crash was coming — maybe even before the book hit the shelves at Borders (R.I.P.). It was interesting to read the book in 2011, when the world economic system is teetering on the brink of the abyss, the Middle East is going sideways, and resource shortages are stirring up conflicts in many regions — and we’re just days away from the herd reaching seven billion. The Long Emergency is much less theoretical today.
In Kunstler’s story, our problems largely started with the steam engine and Colonel Drake’s oil well. He doesn’t zoom farther out, to a 10,000 year view range. ‘Twas a dirty sweaty ancient farmer who kicked loose the stones that set off the avalanche that’s about to sweep away the world as we know it. We were already beyond the point of no return when the steam engines began hissing. But the whole process shifted explosively into high gear 200 years ago.
Kunstler would be satisfied if we could just turn back the clock to 1800, and live in a happy Currier & Ives world of horse powered farms and villages, with laughing children playing in the dirt roads. That would be an important first step for the healing process. It would prepare us for the more challenging transitions that follow — abandoning the mining of soils, water, fish, forests, and so on.
I was excited to read his analysis of Malthus, whom he concluded was completely correct! I’ve always worried that my understanding of Malthus was missing some vital pieces, because nearly everyone in the world says, over and over and over, that he was absolutely and totally wrong. I have tried so hard to find serious defects in his ideas, and I have repeatedly failed. I worried that my mental faculties were fading. It’s not easy thinking at odds with the herd. A basic misunderstanding has gone viral, put down strong roots, and nothing can kill it.
Kunstler serves us a level-headed reality-based image of tomorrow, and it is sobering. Despite its gloominess, the book has managed to sell quite well. The book’s subtitle is: “Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century.” But the contents don’t focus on revealing effective survival strategies. The core of the book describes that huge change is on the way, and explains why. Wake up, take off the blinders, throw your conventional thinking overboard, and prepare for interesting times.
March 11, 2015
Whew boy! After catching Kunstler on the radio, I bought his book, and read it with great fascination and mounting alarm. As a scenario for disaster, this book should please fans of fiction writers like J.G. Ballard. Only it is not fiction - Kunstler predicts the coming collapse of all human civilization, and he provides dark, witty descriptions of how this will come to pass. He makes a strong, compelling case, and I found myself fervently hoping that he is completely wrong. But we ignore this kind of prediction at great peril. For too long people have complacently accepted the status quo without looking to the future, and the leaders of American business and government are among the greatest offenders.
Kunstler sees a coming collapse and severe contraction of the world economy. When the cheap oil begins to run out, our severely overpopulated world and its global consumer economy will begun to fall apart. Violence, disease, and much lower standards of living are coming to the world's strongest countries, and the developing world will never develop. We will all be taking giant steps backward, and there is no cure, no new technology that will bail us out. Already (in 2008), much of what Kunstler predicts here appears to be taking shape.
As a polemicist and writer, Kunstler is very impressive. He is a good phrasemaker and possesses a sharp, dry wit. However, he is not a first-rate scholar. There are hardly any footnotes and references, and no bibliography. He makes broad predictions without referring to anything that buttresses his views, no political or sociological or scientific or historical studies of any kind. He dismisses all alternative energy technologies, yet he is not a specialist in this area. He offers little in the way of solutions, and instead sketches out a series of inevitable disasters that lurk in the near future. He also presents a brief history of the USA in relation to oil consumption that can no doubt stimulate some discussion. He basically sees the rise of the USA, improvements in world agriculture, and all the technological advances of recent decades as being completely dependent on cheap oil.
It is important to remember that this is a man who dislikes contemporary American civilization and may, in fact, look with relish to its collapse. His region by region description of the USA lurching painfully backward towards the 1800s would be amusing if it were not so disturbing. He may be right that American suburbia is the greatest misallocation of resources in history, but his blatant hatred of it may also color his views a little. He certainly possesses the biases of many liberals of his generation, such as viewing the American Southeast as a land of ignorance and stupidity, despising big box stores, and disliking big business in general - but that does not automatically mean he is wrong.
I would recommend this book, but I would also recommend reading it critically and taking into account the views of other writers on the subject. It is now unquestionable that action needs to be taken on his central issue - the dependence of American civilization on imported oil. Personally, I look forward to exploring more of Kunstler's works. His views are pretty extreme, but they make for very interesting reading, and his sharp, cogent writing makes them easier to digest.
Kunstler sees a coming collapse and severe contraction of the world economy. When the cheap oil begins to run out, our severely overpopulated world and its global consumer economy will begun to fall apart. Violence, disease, and much lower standards of living are coming to the world's strongest countries, and the developing world will never develop. We will all be taking giant steps backward, and there is no cure, no new technology that will bail us out. Already (in 2008), much of what Kunstler predicts here appears to be taking shape.
As a polemicist and writer, Kunstler is very impressive. He is a good phrasemaker and possesses a sharp, dry wit. However, he is not a first-rate scholar. There are hardly any footnotes and references, and no bibliography. He makes broad predictions without referring to anything that buttresses his views, no political or sociological or scientific or historical studies of any kind. He dismisses all alternative energy technologies, yet he is not a specialist in this area. He offers little in the way of solutions, and instead sketches out a series of inevitable disasters that lurk in the near future. He also presents a brief history of the USA in relation to oil consumption that can no doubt stimulate some discussion. He basically sees the rise of the USA, improvements in world agriculture, and all the technological advances of recent decades as being completely dependent on cheap oil.
It is important to remember that this is a man who dislikes contemporary American civilization and may, in fact, look with relish to its collapse. His region by region description of the USA lurching painfully backward towards the 1800s would be amusing if it were not so disturbing. He may be right that American suburbia is the greatest misallocation of resources in history, but his blatant hatred of it may also color his views a little. He certainly possesses the biases of many liberals of his generation, such as viewing the American Southeast as a land of ignorance and stupidity, despising big box stores, and disliking big business in general - but that does not automatically mean he is wrong.
I would recommend this book, but I would also recommend reading it critically and taking into account the views of other writers on the subject. It is now unquestionable that action needs to be taken on his central issue - the dependence of American civilization on imported oil. Personally, I look forward to exploring more of Kunstler's works. His views are pretty extreme, but they make for very interesting reading, and his sharp, cogent writing makes them easier to digest.
August 13, 2010
“The Long Emergency”
by James Howard Kunstler
Book Review by Jay Gilbertson
Now how’s that for a down right peculiar title? It got your attention though, didn’t it? This book is actually an important guide to life after what is called ‘Peak Oil’ and, if you can reflect on the information beyond the author’s sometimes rather cranky moments, you’ll come away with some truly useful analysis.
Kunstler was one of the first to bring the idea of ‘Peak Oil’ to the public’s attention with this book, which was written in 2006. The concept is simple, oil production is now at its peak and worldwide demand is soaring, fuelled by the growth of India and China. Yes, there is more oil in the ground, but it is going to be much harder and much more costly to extract. The days of easy energy are over and we can look forward to more wild swings in gas prices as they seesaw ever higher over the next few decades. It’s a scientific fact and honestly, can any of us be that surprised?
He also takes issue with the ingrained American belief that our technology will save us, carefully making the case that alternative fuels do not have the energy return of oil and ultimately depend on oil to build the equipment for their production. The author also traces how environmental issues and the economy will converge to create this “Long Emergency.”
Kunstler has penned a wake up call, a banging on the hood—pull your head out of the sand—get with the program, kind of book that lays it all bare. Isn’t it time? Actually, that’s one of his main points: we’re nearly out of time. Nearly. Now I don’t want to scare you away from even taking this book down and cracking the ol’ binding for a look because I feel this stuff is really important. Kunstler isn’t foretelling an end to the world, but he is hinting (heavily and with italics) about big changes coming our way with regard to cheap goods from Wal-Mart, lawyer-foyer homes with a zillion wings and driving all over the state in search of the best Chinese Buffet.
Many of us in this beautiful country have chosen to be here and would love to see our hometowns once again flourish. The re-localization of villages and small towns all across America is what “The Long Emergency” suggests as a possible strategy to survive the coming crisis. We need to makes plans for a different kind of future now.
Kunstler makes it clear that the solution to our mad addiction to oil, is a road that isn’t going to be easy to exit from. The first thing he suggests is simple conservation. Next is the importance of community and with that the need to grow and store and preserve as much of our own food as possible—for starters. From there Kunstler asserts that the way through the Long Emergency is using the strength of our communities to find ways to meet the needs of all, re-learning to co-exist on a much smaller, local, more sustainable scale—and yes—we can do this.
It all seems to boil down to an awareness of what our future might look like without oil. To know your neighbors, the community and stay connected—we’re all in this together and isn’t that The Long—Solution?
by James Howard Kunstler
Book Review by Jay Gilbertson
Now how’s that for a down right peculiar title? It got your attention though, didn’t it? This book is actually an important guide to life after what is called ‘Peak Oil’ and, if you can reflect on the information beyond the author’s sometimes rather cranky moments, you’ll come away with some truly useful analysis.
Kunstler was one of the first to bring the idea of ‘Peak Oil’ to the public’s attention with this book, which was written in 2006. The concept is simple, oil production is now at its peak and worldwide demand is soaring, fuelled by the growth of India and China. Yes, there is more oil in the ground, but it is going to be much harder and much more costly to extract. The days of easy energy are over and we can look forward to more wild swings in gas prices as they seesaw ever higher over the next few decades. It’s a scientific fact and honestly, can any of us be that surprised?
He also takes issue with the ingrained American belief that our technology will save us, carefully making the case that alternative fuels do not have the energy return of oil and ultimately depend on oil to build the equipment for their production. The author also traces how environmental issues and the economy will converge to create this “Long Emergency.”
Kunstler has penned a wake up call, a banging on the hood—pull your head out of the sand—get with the program, kind of book that lays it all bare. Isn’t it time? Actually, that’s one of his main points: we’re nearly out of time. Nearly. Now I don’t want to scare you away from even taking this book down and cracking the ol’ binding for a look because I feel this stuff is really important. Kunstler isn’t foretelling an end to the world, but he is hinting (heavily and with italics) about big changes coming our way with regard to cheap goods from Wal-Mart, lawyer-foyer homes with a zillion wings and driving all over the state in search of the best Chinese Buffet.
Many of us in this beautiful country have chosen to be here and would love to see our hometowns once again flourish. The re-localization of villages and small towns all across America is what “The Long Emergency” suggests as a possible strategy to survive the coming crisis. We need to makes plans for a different kind of future now.
Kunstler makes it clear that the solution to our mad addiction to oil, is a road that isn’t going to be easy to exit from. The first thing he suggests is simple conservation. Next is the importance of community and with that the need to grow and store and preserve as much of our own food as possible—for starters. From there Kunstler asserts that the way through the Long Emergency is using the strength of our communities to find ways to meet the needs of all, re-learning to co-exist on a much smaller, local, more sustainable scale—and yes—we can do this.
It all seems to boil down to an awareness of what our future might look like without oil. To know your neighbors, the community and stay connected—we’re all in this together and isn’t that The Long—Solution?
August 17, 2010
Important book about the current changes taking place in the world and upcoming crises that are beginning to occur. I didn't read all of this, but here are a few quotes from what I read:
"If it happens that the human race doesn't make it, than the fact that we were here once will not be altered, that once upon a time we peopled this astonishing blue planet, and wondered intelligently at everything about it and the other things who lived here with us on it, and that we celebrated the beauty of it in music and art, architecture, literature, and dance, and that there were times when we approached something godlike in our abilities and aspirations. We emerged out of depthless mystery, and back into mystery we returned, and in the end the mystery is all there is" (Page 21).
"One president in recent times, Jimmy Carter, told the truth to the American public. He told us that our continued hyperdependence on oil was a deadly trap and that we would have to change the way we live in America. He was ridiculed and voted out of office for it" (Page 29).
"President Reagan was a cornucopian who believed that the oil supply was virtually limitless" (Page 54).
"A corporation, essentially, is a pile of money to which a number of persons have sold their moral allegiance" (Wendell Berry, Page 186).
"What 'conservative' actually means anymore may be subject to debate, but for the sake of this argument let's say it includes the following attitudes: (1) That the United States is an exceptional nation whose citizens enjoy special dispensations from a Christian god for their good works in being a beacon of liberty for the rest of the world; (2) that being an American is characterized by rugged individualism that tends to exalt the family, clan, or tribe while it discounts the common good of the community and even the rights of others not of the family, clan, or tribe; and (3) that firearms should be liberally distributed among the populace with the expectation that they will be used to defend individual liberty. Anyone can see that against a background of grave economic distress, attitudes like these could lead to a great deal of delusional thinking, dangerous politics, and possible mayhem (Page 285).
Very worthwhile reading.
"If it happens that the human race doesn't make it, than the fact that we were here once will not be altered, that once upon a time we peopled this astonishing blue planet, and wondered intelligently at everything about it and the other things who lived here with us on it, and that we celebrated the beauty of it in music and art, architecture, literature, and dance, and that there were times when we approached something godlike in our abilities and aspirations. We emerged out of depthless mystery, and back into mystery we returned, and in the end the mystery is all there is" (Page 21).
"One president in recent times, Jimmy Carter, told the truth to the American public. He told us that our continued hyperdependence on oil was a deadly trap and that we would have to change the way we live in America. He was ridiculed and voted out of office for it" (Page 29).
"President Reagan was a cornucopian who believed that the oil supply was virtually limitless" (Page 54).
"A corporation, essentially, is a pile of money to which a number of persons have sold their moral allegiance" (Wendell Berry, Page 186).
"What 'conservative' actually means anymore may be subject to debate, but for the sake of this argument let's say it includes the following attitudes: (1) That the United States is an exceptional nation whose citizens enjoy special dispensations from a Christian god for their good works in being a beacon of liberty for the rest of the world; (2) that being an American is characterized by rugged individualism that tends to exalt the family, clan, or tribe while it discounts the common good of the community and even the rights of others not of the family, clan, or tribe; and (3) that firearms should be liberally distributed among the populace with the expectation that they will be used to defend individual liberty. Anyone can see that against a background of grave economic distress, attitudes like these could lead to a great deal of delusional thinking, dangerous politics, and possible mayhem (Page 285).
Very worthwhile reading.
June 21, 2010
I usually hate the term "must-read" when applied to books, but in the case of this book the adjective applies. Anyone who expects to live for another 20 or more years should see and reflect on what is probably going to be our future.
James Howard Kunstler's 307-page gives Americans (and others in the world) a glimpse of the future that is full of scarcity, hardship, and probably strife. It's a future that seems all but inevitable given the growing depletion of fossil fuels (coal and petroleum) and the eventual reduction or elimination of those products (electricity, plastics, medicines, vehicles, electronics) that use fossil fuels in their manufacture, transportation, or use.
In addition to this, we must consider the effects of overpopulation, climate change, and the depletion of other resources like water and the fact that world leaders have done little to address these problems much less ameliorate them. We thus are bringing on ourselves a future that will be scary for much of the world -- but especially for Americans so used to low-cost energy, big houses, ample food and electricity, and the freedom to travel in gas-guzzling vehicles around the country and around the world for little money.
When you add to these worlwide problems the United States' mammoth waste of resources on its military, foreign wars, and bases, the huge amount of money and manpower wasted on our futile war on drugs, the wastefulness of our throw-away society, our gargantuan national debt, the recent implosion of our financial system, and the lack of social responsibility of large corporations, we are almost certain to see the world's natural resources become scarcer and more expensive and at some point disappear. A decline in living standards in the First World will be steep and relentless.
Barring a miracle, we can debate the "whens" but not the "if."
James Howard Kunstler's 307-page gives Americans (and others in the world) a glimpse of the future that is full of scarcity, hardship, and probably strife. It's a future that seems all but inevitable given the growing depletion of fossil fuels (coal and petroleum) and the eventual reduction or elimination of those products (electricity, plastics, medicines, vehicles, electronics) that use fossil fuels in their manufacture, transportation, or use.
In addition to this, we must consider the effects of overpopulation, climate change, and the depletion of other resources like water and the fact that world leaders have done little to address these problems much less ameliorate them. We thus are bringing on ourselves a future that will be scary for much of the world -- but especially for Americans so used to low-cost energy, big houses, ample food and electricity, and the freedom to travel in gas-guzzling vehicles around the country and around the world for little money.
When you add to these worlwide problems the United States' mammoth waste of resources on its military, foreign wars, and bases, the huge amount of money and manpower wasted on our futile war on drugs, the wastefulness of our throw-away society, our gargantuan national debt, the recent implosion of our financial system, and the lack of social responsibility of large corporations, we are almost certain to see the world's natural resources become scarcer and more expensive and at some point disappear. A decline in living standards in the First World will be steep and relentless.
Barring a miracle, we can debate the "whens" but not the "if."
April 17, 2013
Even if one does not really believe in TEOTWAWKI, the author tries his best to write convincingly of its approaching reality. With the peak oil notion as its core, Kunstler supports his view by discounting various alternative energy options as unfeasible at replacing the one-off endowment that crude oil represents for humanity, throwing in the deleterious effects of climate change, epidemic diseases and such other calamities that will coincide with the main thrust of oil depletion. His very formidable general knowledge is evident, ranging from the history of fossil fuel exploitation, middle east politics, settlement and opening of the US to the intricacies of farming, history of finance etc etc. Although not a specialist in any of the afore mentioned subjects, his ability to synthesize widely disparate topics into a coherent analysis is impressive nonetheless. The Long Emergency is therefore an informative and absorbing read no matter if you agree with its principle premise or not. The final chapter begins to go into the realm of conjecture, being the author's personal views of what the post peak future will look like in various parts of America, which has the feel of quasi science fiction to it, no doubt revealing his talent at fiction writing as well. The book then ends with a nostalgic and whimsical reflection of his own life so far and how very different the impending future could be.
August 3, 2011
This certainly isn't the feel good book of the year. It also isn't a survival manual. What Kunstler writes about is why the way we operate is doomed, how it will change, and how (in his opinion) we can deal with said change. It is MY opinion that Kunstler's is a view predicated on the perceived "correctness" of his own choices, and that's where his argument falls apart.
He's far too willing to throw babies out with bathwater and everyone else under the bus. Kustler sees no alternative to his own small-town lifestyle to deal with the decline of oil economies, and makes pains to prop it up as the ideal community and lifestyle. He may be right, but I found this monopolizing of "correctness" near the end of what is otherwise a wonderfully sobering book off-putting and counter-productive. Kunstler may whole-heartedly believe that what he's saying is true, but where does that leave those without the means to adopt his "correct" lifestyle?
Everyone should read this book though. It's important that we understand what's coming, even if Kunstler has precious little advice to give. And it is coming, that much is for sure.
He's far too willing to throw babies out with bathwater and everyone else under the bus. Kustler sees no alternative to his own small-town lifestyle to deal with the decline of oil economies, and makes pains to prop it up as the ideal community and lifestyle. He may be right, but I found this monopolizing of "correctness" near the end of what is otherwise a wonderfully sobering book off-putting and counter-productive. Kunstler may whole-heartedly believe that what he's saying is true, but where does that leave those without the means to adopt his "correct" lifestyle?
Everyone should read this book though. It's important that we understand what's coming, even if Kunstler has precious little advice to give. And it is coming, that much is for sure.
December 31, 2010
A companion volume to The Long Descent; in some ways Kunstler is more apocalyptic than Greer, and I think the most balanced view lies between them. Whereas Greer is probably a bit too sanguine about how fossil fuel depletion will affect humanity, and doesn't pay much attention to other problems that will combine with it to make both worse, Kunstler fails to adequately reflect the truth that the consequences of these programs will spread their impact over time. I also didn't care for Kunstler's smug arrogance about the cultural superiority of New Englanders over Southerners (I am neither) - to hear this guy tell it, people from his part of the country (other than the Mafia or gang-bangers, he says) don't break the law or otherwise behave in un-community-spirited ways, whereas Southerners are generally survivalist trailer trash petty criminals. Hate to break it to ya, James, but I've run across some meth cooks from New England too.
Good for provoking thought, and a lot of what he says is valid, but keep your salt shaker handy.
Good for provoking thought, and a lot of what he says is valid, but keep your salt shaker handy.
January 14, 2016
The Geography of Nowhere was basically an instruction book as to how we could have avoided much of what James Howard Kunstler talks about in this book which is mostly the end of the free ride as far as fossil fuels go and the economy they supported. I'm sure that the people who rated this book low are also the same crowd who laughs about global climate change every time it snows in New York in February (while ignoring record high temperatures all over the planet). I mean, seriously folks. A child could figure out that buying some cheap piece of plastic shit that was made on the other side of the planet doesn't make much sense as far as energy efficiency and it was a doomed idea to begin with.
January 3, 2022
The oil is running out. Fact.
No one wants to think about it, some people deny it.
(Read some of the one star comment here then you will see them - 'oil is not running out.' I mean, how? There isn't unlimited amount of the stuff. It WILL run out one day. You can hope it's not happening in your life time but sure as hell it WILL run out one day.)
I am glad that someone speculate a possibility what would happen and how our lives are going to be like post-fossil fuel.
The author's version of the future is quite reasonable and realistic.
No panic. We managed to live thousands of years without oil before. We shall be able to manage after. It's just that we need to live very differently.
This book is from a decade ago, some of the speculation is already happening. That's the scary part.
No one wants to think about it, some people deny it.
(Read some of the one star comment here then you will see them - 'oil is not running out.' I mean, how? There isn't unlimited amount of the stuff. It WILL run out one day. You can hope it's not happening in your life time but sure as hell it WILL run out one day.)
I am glad that someone speculate a possibility what would happen and how our lives are going to be like post-fossil fuel.
The author's version of the future is quite reasonable and realistic.
No panic. We managed to live thousands of years without oil before. We shall be able to manage after. It's just that we need to live very differently.
This book is from a decade ago, some of the speculation is already happening. That's the scary part.
September 15, 2009
The second part of Kunstler's tirade against oil that began in Geography of Nowhere, he completely lets loose in this book. It's amazing and refreshing that his outlook, although grim for the immediate future, is overall hopeful. He sees a better future for humanity after our liberation from fossil fuels. Brownie points for setting the post-oil utopia in Upstate NY! He also has one of the most unlikely, and accurate, pre-2008 recession predictions that the worldwide will bottom-out because of the overproduction of housing and the over-extension of credit. It's more interesting because he's not an economist, he just hates Home Depot!
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