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Micro Millennium
Fine cloth copy in a near fine, very slightly edge-nicked and dust-dulled dust wrapper, now mylar-sleeved. Remains particularly and surprisingly well-preserved; tight, bright, clean and sharp-cornered. Physical description; 255 p. ; 22 cm. Notes; Price-clipped. Includes index. Bibliography: p. 247-248. - Includes index. Subjects; Computers - Social aspects. Computers and civilization. Microprocessors. trade and industry. manufacturing. domestic trade. business organisation. cultural and intellectual life. Place in general. The world. October 1945 to end of Vietnam War, 1975. specialised trades. precision instruments, machines, computers. book trade. printing. publishing. culture and intellectual life, general works. civilisation, general works. Computer systems. Social aspects - Forecasts. Genre; Microcomputers.
- GenresNonfictionScience
255 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 1979
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About the author
Christopher Riche Evans
10 books6 followersDr Christopher Riche Evans (29 May 1931 – 10 October 1979) was a British psychologist, computer scientist, and author.
Born in Aberdovey, he spent his childhood in Wales and was educated at Christ College, Brecon (1941–49). He spent two years in the RAF (1950–52),and worked as a science journalist and writer until 1957 when he began a B.A. course in Psychology at University College, London, graduating with honors in 1960.
After a summer fellowship at Duke University, where he first met his future American wife, Nancy Fullmer, he took up a Research Assistant post in the Physics Laboratory, University of Reading, working on eye movements under Professor R.W. Ditchburn. Upon receiving his PhD (the title of his thesis was “Pattern Perception and the Stabilised Retinal Image”), he went to the Division of Computer Science, National Physical Laboratory, Teddington in 1964, where he remained until his death of cancer in 1979. Survived by his wife and two children Christopher Samuel Evans and Victoria Evans-Theiler.
Born in Aberdovey, he spent his childhood in Wales and was educated at Christ College, Brecon (1941–49). He spent two years in the RAF (1950–52),and worked as a science journalist and writer until 1957 when he began a B.A. course in Psychology at University College, London, graduating with honors in 1960.
After a summer fellowship at Duke University, where he first met his future American wife, Nancy Fullmer, he took up a Research Assistant post in the Physics Laboratory, University of Reading, working on eye movements under Professor R.W. Ditchburn. Upon receiving his PhD (the title of his thesis was “Pattern Perception and the Stabilised Retinal Image”), he went to the Division of Computer Science, National Physical Laboratory, Teddington in 1964, where he remained until his death of cancer in 1979. Survived by his wife and two children Christopher Samuel Evans and Victoria Evans-Theiler.
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
January 22, 2013
A brave, exciting and Utopian prediction of the effects of the microchip revolution on society, written in an engaging style by academic and science populariser, Christopher Evans, in 1979.
This book is fascinating as much for what the author gets wrong as for what he gets right; in the former category, a twenty-hour working week, teaching computers which complement or supplant teachers, a highly interactive political system with weekly polling by citizens and the rise of 'ultra intelligent machines'.
His successful predictions include flat-screen TVs which act as media hubs, e-book readers, general purpose computing devices small enough for anyone to carry around (OK, iPhone users choose to dispense with the 'general purpose' part of that), ubiquitous network communications, radical alteration in the nature of work, the collapse of the Soviet Union and rising prosperity in what was then called the "Third World".
The book's biggest failing (and simultaneously what makes it so engaging) is perhaps the author's unswerving belief in the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI). The apparent intelligence of chess-playing computers, ground-hugging cruise missiles and interactive medical diagnostic systems of his day led Evans to believe that strong AI was just around the corner. This is an understandable position for him to have taken. Evans understood the principle of a Turing-complete computer: a device which can solve any problem capable of being expressed in mathematical terms. This is a simple idea, but it's an extraordinarily powerful one. All modern programming languages and machine instruction sets are effectively Turing-complete. That means that any computer can be used to simulate any physical (or non-physical!) system which can be expressed in some kind of mathematical notation. Think flight simulators, optical character recognition, speech recognition, even digital cameras. Evans believed that we'd be able to find a way to express the mechanisms of cognition mathematically. There's a telling paragraph, however, in which he surveys the state of our understanding of mental processes in 1979:
"Although in 1733 Alexander Pope advised that 'the proper study of mankind is Man', psychology is still one of the least advanced and most neglected aspects of science. The few explanatory models we have been able to scratch together to explain brain, mind, personality and their associated variables are disappointingly weak, and only the Pavlovian and Freudian views carry even a partial air of conviction. Psychology is still in its 'flat earth' state of development, and we now await a Pythagoras to come and tell us that the world is, after all, round. As with so many areas in science, the problem is tied up with the awesome complexity of the subject matter. No wonder learning, memory, perception, muscular control, thinking, reasoning, sleeping and dreaming - to name but a few functions - are still more or less total enigmas. Nor is it surprising that when the system or parts of it begin to malfunction and 'mental illness' ensues, we have virtually no understanding of its causes or treatment. The great gains in launching a major research programme designed to understand the brain and convert psychology from a soft to a hard science are likely to provide an irresistible lure. With the computer at our side we will be able to tap intellectual resources of a matchless kind, while approaching the problem with non-human detachment."
The circularity of this argument wasn't apparent to the author at the time, but it's plain to us: "We don't understand mental functions. We need to understand mental functions in order to build strong AI. We will use strong AI to help us understand mental functions."
Irrespective of flaws such as this, reading this book from a perspective a decade beyond the author's "long-term future" (1993 - 2000) allows us to re-assess the world we've built for ourselves. For example, why don't we have more interactive politics? There are no technical obstructions standing in the way.
This is a worthwhile book for the student of the history of computing. It shows us that at the dawn of what we now call 'the information age', intellectuals and technocrats were well aware of the radical changes which were about to be unleashed on society. Evans died just a year after completing his visionary book, so he never got to see if even the most short-term of his predictions were to be proved correct. If he were to have been granted a glimpse of the world in 2012, I wonder if he'd be pleased or disappointed at the world we've shaped for ourselves. Have we been making the most of that wondrous tool, the computer, to solve society's problems?
This book is fascinating as much for what the author gets wrong as for what he gets right; in the former category, a twenty-hour working week, teaching computers which complement or supplant teachers, a highly interactive political system with weekly polling by citizens and the rise of 'ultra intelligent machines'.
His successful predictions include flat-screen TVs which act as media hubs, e-book readers, general purpose computing devices small enough for anyone to carry around (OK, iPhone users choose to dispense with the 'general purpose' part of that), ubiquitous network communications, radical alteration in the nature of work, the collapse of the Soviet Union and rising prosperity in what was then called the "Third World".
The book's biggest failing (and simultaneously what makes it so engaging) is perhaps the author's unswerving belief in the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI). The apparent intelligence of chess-playing computers, ground-hugging cruise missiles and interactive medical diagnostic systems of his day led Evans to believe that strong AI was just around the corner. This is an understandable position for him to have taken. Evans understood the principle of a Turing-complete computer: a device which can solve any problem capable of being expressed in mathematical terms. This is a simple idea, but it's an extraordinarily powerful one. All modern programming languages and machine instruction sets are effectively Turing-complete. That means that any computer can be used to simulate any physical (or non-physical!) system which can be expressed in some kind of mathematical notation. Think flight simulators, optical character recognition, speech recognition, even digital cameras. Evans believed that we'd be able to find a way to express the mechanisms of cognition mathematically. There's a telling paragraph, however, in which he surveys the state of our understanding of mental processes in 1979:
"Although in 1733 Alexander Pope advised that 'the proper study of mankind is Man', psychology is still one of the least advanced and most neglected aspects of science. The few explanatory models we have been able to scratch together to explain brain, mind, personality and their associated variables are disappointingly weak, and only the Pavlovian and Freudian views carry even a partial air of conviction. Psychology is still in its 'flat earth' state of development, and we now await a Pythagoras to come and tell us that the world is, after all, round. As with so many areas in science, the problem is tied up with the awesome complexity of the subject matter. No wonder learning, memory, perception, muscular control, thinking, reasoning, sleeping and dreaming - to name but a few functions - are still more or less total enigmas. Nor is it surprising that when the system or parts of it begin to malfunction and 'mental illness' ensues, we have virtually no understanding of its causes or treatment. The great gains in launching a major research programme designed to understand the brain and convert psychology from a soft to a hard science are likely to provide an irresistible lure. With the computer at our side we will be able to tap intellectual resources of a matchless kind, while approaching the problem with non-human detachment."
The circularity of this argument wasn't apparent to the author at the time, but it's plain to us: "We don't understand mental functions. We need to understand mental functions in order to build strong AI. We will use strong AI to help us understand mental functions."
Irrespective of flaws such as this, reading this book from a perspective a decade beyond the author's "long-term future" (1993 - 2000) allows us to re-assess the world we've built for ourselves. For example, why don't we have more interactive politics? There are no technical obstructions standing in the way.
This is a worthwhile book for the student of the history of computing. It shows us that at the dawn of what we now call 'the information age', intellectuals and technocrats were well aware of the radical changes which were about to be unleashed on society. Evans died just a year after completing his visionary book, so he never got to see if even the most short-term of his predictions were to be proved correct. If he were to have been granted a glimpse of the world in 2012, I wonder if he'd be pleased or disappointed at the world we've shaped for ourselves. Have we been making the most of that wondrous tool, the computer, to solve society's problems?
January 17, 2024
After two years of working in data management in one of my duties in us army Europe, I was interested in the potential of computing. At this time punch cards and mainframes were the standard of computing. At the time ( 1980 ), I was looking for a great program for chess and game theory in computer simulations. My main interest was in historical military simulations as a hobby. I found this book a treasure trove of ideas for future avenues for growth.
It was tragic that the author died of cancer after the book was published.
It was tragic that the author died of cancer after the book was published.
December 5, 2023
Reading this book in 2023 was especially enlightening. A blast from the past yet highly accurate and surprisingly captivating.
February 1, 2023
Christopher Evens died before seeing the true future of computers.
I know that the copyright is from 1979 and the author died in 1979. So, he never got to see his predictions.
Yet, he does a pretty good description of history. While reading history you come across many interesting things as the Notes by Ada Lovelace. Also, a hand full f people that you may have missed in the standard stories and movies. He covers Thomas J. Watson decades before Watson AI.
Even if he missed out on decades of discoveries and improvements, you can count on a good read of what he found so far. Therefore, this is a timeless book and needs to hold an upfront position in your library.
I know that the copyright is from 1979 and the author died in 1979. So, he never got to see his predictions.
Yet, he does a pretty good description of history. While reading history you come across many interesting things as the Notes by Ada Lovelace. Also, a hand full f people that you may have missed in the standard stories and movies. He covers Thomas J. Watson decades before Watson AI.
Even if he missed out on decades of discoveries and improvements, you can count on a good read of what he found so far. Therefore, this is a timeless book and needs to hold an upfront position in your library.
March 10, 2021
Essential reading for an open university course
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews