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394 pages, Hardcover
First published November 15, 1991
... the second edition of this book was written around the year 2000. In retrospect, that was almost the last year of the great bull market in stocks that had started in 1982. At that time, pundits were proclaiming that we were in a “new era.” “Experts” were recommending that individuals invest 100% of their portfolios in equities (or perhaps keep a small percentage, say 10%, in cash), and nothing at all in bonds. The decade between 2000 and 2010 proved the “experts” wrong. Between 2000 and 2010, the stock market suffered two devastating bear markets: in 2002 and in 2008. Even though many sectors of the bond market suffered significant declines during the financial panic of 2008, for that decade, investments in many sectors of the bond market had positive returns and enabled investors to ride out a lost decade in the stock market.
Finally, the episode demonstrates why it pays, literally, to be very precise about exactly which revenue streams back debt service. In this instance, MAC bonds were tarred by the woes of New York City, even though they were not obligations of the city and rated higher than direct obligations of the city. And that is the main reason why even though MAC bonds represented a very solid investment from the start, their yields were so high.
In November 1990, spreads between junk and Treasuries reached
1,100 basis points—a truly amazing number at the time. During 1989 and
1990, the selling of junk bonds reached panic proportions. At the height of
the panic, junk bonds were being sold for 30 to 40 cents on the dollar, with
yields-to-maturity ranging from 20% to 40%.
The panic was overdone. In early 1991, a strong rally ensued.
Amazingly, this pattern of rally, crisis, and subsequent rally did not
end at the beginning of the 1990s. During the decade of the 1990s
through the present, junk bonds have gone on several similar roller
coaster rides. Periods of outsize gains have alternated with periods of
dramatic losses. Between 1998 and 2009, severe declines occurred twice:
during the economic crisis of 1998, after Russia defaulted on its debt; and
during the financial crisis that began in 2007 and lasted through 2008.
Prior to the beginning of the most recent crisis, in 2007, spreads to
Treasuries had declined to about 260 basis points. Investors were once
again behaving as if risk had ceased to exist. But in 2008, at the height of
the financial panic, spreads to Treasuries widened to well above 25%
(2,500 basis points), a new record. Declines in the price of many junk
bonds were catastrophic, between 40% and 90%.
But once again, starting in 2009, junk rallied. For the entire calendar
year of 2009, total returns of junk bonds were stellar once more, around
40% for an index of junk bonds. This was due to two separate factors. The
first is that dividend yields of junk bonds were on average well above
25%, so interest income was very high. The second was that the extremely
steep decline in yields resulted in a significant chunk of capital gains.
If you are a trader, you would want to buy corporate bonds when
they are unpopular and spreads to Treasuries are wide. The widest
spreads will always be found in the high yield (junk) bonds sector. But
remember that those are volatile and speculative securities.
Once again, the best example of when to buy is to be found in the
2007–2008 financial crisis. Toward the end of 2008, when fear dominated
the markets, spreads to Treasuries of both investment grade corporates
and junk reached record levels. Total return of both investment grade corporate bonds and junk bonds in 2009 was extremely high. (Examples of
these returns will be seen in Chapter 12, on bond funds.)
As this is being written (in May 2010), spreads of corporate bonds
compared to Treasuries have narrowed significantly compared to where
they were in 2008. In the 5 to 10 year maturity range, investment grade
corporate bonds yield around 200 to 300 basis points (2% to 3%) more than
Treasuries.