Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence

by Peter Schwartz

Offers a look into the possible changes of the future in areas such as technology, medicine, and demographics, and discusses how society and businesses can prepare for the challenges and capitalize on the advantages.

Genres: Business, Management, History, Nonfiction

256 pages, Hardcover

First published June 23, 2003

About the author

Peter is the author of Inevitable Surprises (2003), a provocative look at the dynamic forces at play in the world today and their implications for business and society. His first book, The Art of the Long View(1991), is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning and was recently voted the No. 1 futures book by the Association of Professional Futurists. He also co-authored The Long Boom (1999), a vision for the world characterized by global openness, prosperity, and discovery; When Good Companies Do Bad Things (1999), an examination of and argument for corporate social responsibility; and China’s Futures (2001), which describes very different scenarios for China. He publishes and lectures widely and served as a script consultant on the films "The Minority Report," "Deep Impact," "Sneakers," and "War Games." Peter received a B.S. in aeronautical engineering and astronautics as well as an honorary doctorate from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Reviews

[John Crippen · Rating 3 out of 5]

Nice survey of some big changes on the way. Read full comments here: http://relaxandhavefun.com/?p=54

[Andrew Helms · Rating 2 out of 5]

So from the start, I had a low impression of the rest of the book, when on the first page of the preface, he writes, "In March of 2002 the United States invaded Iraq with massive force only to be surprised by the swiftness of the Iraqi military collapse."... Only problem with this, is that the second paragraph of the first page of his book gets the year of the Iraq invasion completely wrong... which then got me questioning the integrity of his statements from the beginning.

That being said, while Schwartz raises some interesting points, similar to a good deal of scenario planning work, the conclusions are rather obvious and the thought process not particularly deep. To his credit, he does recognize this element of scenario planning, and addresses it by saying that governments and business leaders often think these thoughts, but do not string them together into plausible scenarios.

Recognizing that the book was written in the early days of the so-called "War on Terror", he pays a disproportionate amount of time to discussing 9/11, al-Qaeda, terrorism, radical Islamists, etc. So much so however, I would say it weakens his overall arguments and dilutes his main theses (and is frankly just annoying when he makes surprisingly ignorant essentializing statements on the Islamic/Arab world).

Long story short, despite the slogan of his book, the scenarios contained within it will neither "change your world and your business," they will simply make you wish for a few hours of your time back.

[Max · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was the first book I read after finishing my thesis. The author, Peter Schwartz, is the head of the Global Business Network, a futures consulting company. He is also the former boss of my current boss, which made me curious to read the book. The book was actually excellent. Extrapolating from current trends and statistics, it attempts to forecast some of the future possibilities for our world. Most of the forecasts are related to the consequences of technological advances. It predicts--and gives well reasoned arguments for--things like an increasing human life span, the capabilities of genetic engineering (which he sees as inevitable and not the moral crisis which we believe it to be), and the possibilities of super computers which might even allow us to invent things like teleportation. My only real problem with the book was that I found it a couple of years too late and a couple of the author's predictions already seemed a bit dated. But all in all, it was a pretty fascinating book, and one that was easy and enjoyable to read.

[Joc · Rating 3 out of 5]

The problem with books that make sweeping statements about the future of human mortality to political divisions and to the information super highway, is that uncomfortable feeling of irrefutability and destiny. That this the way, my predicted way and nothing else. Perhaps some of us would prefer a world that's a little more hopeful rather than one of unavoidable catastrophe.

[Ariane · Rating 3 out of 5]

Futurist Peter Schwartz has been right about a lot of his proedictions over the past few decades. I take these with a grain of salt, and some seem bass-awkwards, but there's a lot of true-sounding, thought-stimulating substance here too.

[Susan · Rating 4 out of 5]

While it is a bit dated, the book itself is quite interesting and the overall message is good. I did find it very interesting to note which predictions were spot on and which were WAY off but overall, I enjoyed the book.

[Bill · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting look at how demographic changes and other trends lead to some surprising, but predictable future scenarios.

[Jeff · Rating 4 out of 5]

Mind opening. Like to see how it has stood the test of time since 2008.

[David Tendo · Rating 3 out of 5]

An interesting read, but not quite prophetic or accurate in hindsight, considering how current affairs have unfolded.

[Jan]

Location read: Kleinmond