“There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgement as to see a friend get rich.”
- Charles Kindleberger
“The right time to invest is when you have the money and the right time to sell is when you need the money.”
- The Investment Answer
“October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, April, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”
- Mark Twain
Goldie and Murray are two individuals who have been in finance most of their lives and have witnessed the way that wall street brokers, investment firms, and your good buddy who has a “can’t lose’ investment tip for you, have led to financial ruin for far too many Americans. To combat this problem, they have compiled a short book with the necessary information you need to make an informed investment decision. They provide five different decisions that must be considered before moving forward with any investment.
1. The Do-it-yourself Decision: Should you try to invest on your own or seek help from an investment professional? And if so, which type of advisor is best?
2. The Asset Allocation Decision: How should you allocate your investments among stocks (equities), binds (fixed income), and cash (money market funds)?
3. The Diversification Decision: Which specific asset classes within these broad categories should you include in your portfolio, and in what proportions?
4. The Active versus Passive Decision: Should you favor an actively managed approach to investing that seeks to outsmart the marker, or a more passive approach that delivers market-like returns?
5. The Rebalancing Decision: When should you sell certain assets in your portfolio and when should you buy more?
The authors believe that whether you recognize it or not, you are answering these questions subconsciously in every one of your investing experiences, but you must think it through further in an informed manner if you want to be successful.
1. DIY Decision: In our autonomous culture, the do-it-yourself (DIY) method is usually the first method of action for most of us; but the authors encourage us to give this further thought. In hardly any other field of expertise do we decide to do something with higher risk without consulting someone with experience. Nobody is performing Gallbladder surgery on themselves or replacing an engine or transmission on their car themselves unless they have full confidence in the outcome beforehand. Yet in the world of finance, this is typically what we do because we believe it isn’t that complex. The authors encourage us to rethink this because the system is set up so that uniformed investors lose money while informed investors or financial professionals with superior resources gain that money for themselves on the market. This is not one of those things where the authors are arguing to just trust the experts or something, this is backed up by the relevant data. In 2009, two years before the release of this book, the average stock fund investor earned a paltry 3.2 percent annually versus the 8.2 percent for the S&P 500 index. The average bond investor earned only 1.0 percent annually versus the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index return of 7.0 percent. From 1990-2009, the average stock fund investor barely beat inflation, which means that he barely grew his money at all. This is likely because the average investor is in fear of investing when markets are down and instead tends to invest when they are at or near market highs. Additional causes for lower returns can be an overconfidence in either the market or your own investment skills, an attraction to rising prices and assuming that past performance is indicative of future results, a herd mentality where we follow what everyone else is investing, a fear of regret over potential losses that keep us from investing, affinity traps that encourage us to invest because someone we trust recommended it, among many other things.
If you agree with the authors that you really need a professional to help you through your investments, then your next step is choosing which type of advisor you need. A retail broker or an independent, fee-only advisor. Retail brokers typically offer either a classic brokerage account or an investment advisory account. Brokerage accounts are to the benefit of the firm the retail broker works for and are not held to the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (IAA1940). Under this account, brokers are better compensated for generating more trades, better compensated for selling certain investment products, and are limited to selling the investment products that are approved by his firm. In an investment advisory account (Managed account), your broker has a financial commitment to you and is held to the IAA1940, which eliminates a lot of potential abuse but also has drawbacks. The investment products are still approved by the firm he works for and many of those investment managers and mutual funds are probably paying his firm to be on the approved list. Another drawback is that what is approved by one firm may not be approved by another, and if you ever needed or wanted to switch firms, you may be forced to sell your investments which may incur costly capital gains or lose any additional gains from retaining the investments. Many brokers do not like to disclose that they are not in fact an independent advisor and will tell you they are independent because they are not employees of a Wall Street firm, but this is deceptive because they are still employees or contractors of one of the many thousand brokerage houses across the USA. Simply ask if they are a registered representative, which is the technical term that all brokerages use – if they are, then they are not independent.
By contrast, Independent, fee-only advisors are typically more closely aligned with their clients because they are without any of the aforementioned constraints that a retail broker has. Fees are set percentages of the money that is managed for you and the compensation that he receives only comes from his clients, not from the investments he selects or moving money between investments. They use third-party custodians, like Charles Schwab or Fidelity, to hold your investments. This ensures your money and investments are only attached to you and your advisor has limited authority to manage the funds. Any advisor that wants to take custody of your money, like Bernie Madoff and others did, is trying to take advantage of you. An advisor then is a fiduciary who must put your interests ahead of his own – and this bears repeating, a broker is working for his firm while independent fee-only advisors are working for you.
So how should you choose an investment advisor? Well, you must make sure that you both share the same investment philosophy to reduce any potential rifts and you want to ensure that there is a personal connection and trust between you both. After all, you are likely going to have him manage your investments for many years. Beyond these things, some housekeeping items are that he is professionally qualified (Such as CFP,CFA, or CPA designations), a proper educational background for the field, has experience in finance, knowing his business structure and the services that are offered, and the type of clients that he typically works for.
2. Asset Allocation Decision: There are generally two ways to invest in a company; the first is through stocks or equities, which are ownership interests in a company that have both higher risks and higher returns. The second is through fixed income, or bonds, which are glorified I.O.U’s to an entity like a business, state, or government and are considered lower risk and lower return investments. There are risks to any investment, but some of the more prominent risks are Credit Risks where the company’s credit quality decreases, as well as Inflation Risk where the return on your investment diminishes because the currency diminishes, and maturity Risks where your return on investments are pushed further into the future, and of course Market Risk where things tend to go both up and down alongside every other stock. At the end of the day, the common denominator in all measures of risk is the uncertainty of future results.
It is a market certainty that low volatility portfolios end up with more wealth than high volatility portfolios. A portfolio that is down 50 percent requires a 100 percent appreciation just to get back to even. But a portfolio that is down just 8.0 percent only needs a recovery of just 8.7 percent to make up for the loss. There are no low risk/high expected return investments, and this is a feature of our free market system. But we can favor one sort of asset class (which is a group of similar investment securities that share common and objectively defined risk and return characteristics) over another. Small company stocks tend to be riskier and carry larger returns than larger companies, which makes sense then that the higher returns are simply rewards for taking greater risks. Another consideration is choosing between value or growth companies – value stocks have low stock prices relative to their underlying accounting measures such as book value, sales and earnings whereas growth stocks have high stock prices relative to their underlying accounting measures. Wall street would have you believe that your investment results are determined by your timing of when to get in and out of the market, picking the right stocks and bonds, and finding the top performing managers or mutual fund. But this is not the case according to the authors, because the primary driver of investment returns is risk, particularly the riskiness of the asset classes that you have in your portfolio and how you allocate your dollars among them. This is the Asset Allocation decision.
You need to focus on your desired mix of cash, bond, or stock investments because this is the single most important investment decision you will make. In Cash, you should be investing as much as you might need to quickly pull from those funds – typically any amounts that are required in less than one year should be invested in your cash equivalents. Stocks and Bonds are good for balancing each other out since stocks have a high volatility and bonds reduce that volatility.
3. The Diversification Decision: In order to reduce risk on your investments, you must diversify them and create what is known as a blended portfolio. If you invest solely in technology, if there is ever a crash in that sector then you lose money across the board. Diversifying will in turn will cause you to accurately focus on the performance of your portfolio as a whole instead of one individual component. Domestic stocks are less than half of the market value, so while it is important to invest in those, you should also look to international stocks to diversify. This applies to domestic bonds and international bonds as well to properly reduce your overall risk. While this chapter was the shortest, it may be the most financially important.
4. The Active versus Passive Decision: There are two tactics when it comes to being in the investment market; the first is to be active in the market and attempt to beat it through a variety of techniques. The other alternative is to be passive and avoid subjective forecasts to deliver normal and expected returns. The Efficient Market Hypothesis states that no investor will consistently beat the market over long periods except by chance. People who try to disprove this hypothesis are consistently unsuccessful as the data shows that most funds fail to beat their respective benchmarks. This does not mean that the market prices are always correct, but simply that it values them randomly and unpredictably to the point where no investor can outperform another investor.
Most active managers attempt to beat the market through either market timing or security selection. Market timing is exactly what it sounds like when the manager attempts to invest or pull funds based on his prediction of the market future. Since nobody can predict the future, and there are countless market bursts of gains and losses, it is nearly impossible to predict the market timing without insider information. Security selection is when there is an active attempt to find the securities that are mispriced by the market with the hope that the market will correct itself and the securities will outperform. But as the authors state, markets work because no single investor can profit at the expense of other investors.
Passive investing is a more sensible approach that can lead to consistent investment returns. Indexing, the process of purchasing all the securities in a benchmark index in the same proportions as the index, is the most popular form of passive investing. In comparison to passive managers, active managers incur higher expenses, they experience increased turnover and are exposed to greater tax exposure.
5. The Rebalancing decision: When your portfolio needs adjusted, not due to any market forecasts but because it has drifted from your asset class percentage, this is called rebalancing. This is needed when some investments have higher losses or gains than normal and shift the proportion of your investments in one direction. You can fix this by adding new income to your portfolio, withdrawing money from equity, or selling an investment and reinvesting elsewhere. This sounds counterintuitive to sell the ones doing well and buy more of the ones doing poorly, but rebalancing is an automatic way to buy low and sell high.
Most rebalancing happens on set schedules, like every quarter, but it must be done. After going through a careful selection of your risk levels, risk tolerance, time horizon, and other factors, you do not want to let the market disrupt your portfolio.
As an introduction to finance, this short work gives you five safe rules for engaging in the markets. But do not look for anything more in depth than that in this work - it won't be found.