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342 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 1999
[His] question was brilliantly simple. He asked what information might make the group change its mind about the need to prepare to immunize the nation against swine flu? Would it be evidence that every swine flu case was mild? Or that no one but the Fort Dix soldiers got the swine flu? Would it make a difference what the timing of the outbreaks was or where they occurred? (p. 142)
Dr. Hans H. Neumann, who was director of preventive medicine at the New Haven Department of Health, explained the problem in a letter to the New York Times. He wrote that if Americans have flu shots in the numbers predicted, as many as 2,300 will have strokes and 7,000 will have heart attacks within two days of being immunized. “Why? Because that is the number statistically expected, flu shots or no flu shots,” he wrote. “Yet can one expect a person who received a flu shot at noon and who that same night had a stroke not to associate somehow the two in his mind? Post hoc, ergo proter hoc,” he added. (p. 161)