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A Mathematician at the Ballpark
In A Mathematician at the Ballpark, professor Ken Ross reveals the math behind the stats. This lively and accessible book shows baseball fans how to harness the power of made predictions and better understand the game. Using real-world examples from historical and modern-day teams, Ross shows: ? Why on-base and slugging percentages are more important than batting averages ? How professional odds makers predict the length of a seven-game series ? How to use mathematics to make smarter bets A Mathematician at the Ballpark is the perfect guide to the science of probability for the stats-obsessed baseball fans?and, with a detailed new appendix on fantasy baseball, an essential tool for anyone involved in a fantasy league.
224 pages, ebook
First published July 21, 2004
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25 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews
June 16, 2011
Based on the title, I'd thought this would be a book that uses statistics to better understand baseball. Instead it uses baseball (in part) to try to teach the reader about statistics. The author goes into painful detail to educate the reader on conditional probability, binomial tests, normal distributions, and other more statistical concepts.
I say "in part" because baseball is only the subject of these math lessons about 75% of the time. The author also digresses into roulette, the lottery game Power Ball, and even AIDS testing to demonstrate some topics.
This is a mediocre math book and a poor baseball book. Look elsewhere if you're interested in either topic.
I say "in part" because baseball is only the subject of these math lessons about 75% of the time. The author also digresses into roulette, the lottery game Power Ball, and even AIDS testing to demonstrate some topics.
This is a mediocre math book and a poor baseball book. Look elsewhere if you're interested in either topic.
July 23, 2008
This book was, of course, perfect, just look at the title.
February 27, 2019
This book is exactly what its full title suggests it is: a popular mathematics book about odds and probability that uses baseball for most of its examples. (Some examples are also drawn from roulette and public health.) This is not a book about baseball statistics, so while there is some discussion early on of things like batting average or on-base percentage, it's nothing that someone familiar with baseball stats doesn't already know, and the book moves on from that area pretty quickly. Almost all of the content has to do with things like:
What are the chances a .300 hitter gets two hits in his next four at-bats?
Given two evenly matched teams, how many games on average would you expect the World Series to last? (Spoiler: it's not seven!) What about if one of those teams is a 3:2 favorite?
What's the likelihood that the team that wins Game 1 of the World Series goes on to win the whole thing?
Which actually are the sort of questions I was interested in. And I liked that the author doesn't ask you to just take him at his word that the probability of event "X" is such-and-such value. Rather, he shows you the equations and the algebraic manipulations resulting in that value, so that if you're so inclined you can work through the math yourself. (There is one notable mistake, though, in the "double or bust" section on roulette where the author incorrectly treats a figure expressed in odds (chances for: chances against) as if it had been expressed as a probability instead.)
Overall, a fairly fun read. 3.5 stars, rounded down.
What are the chances a .300 hitter gets two hits in his next four at-bats?
Given two evenly matched teams, how many games on average would you expect the World Series to last? (Spoiler: it's not seven!) What about if one of those teams is a 3:2 favorite?
What's the likelihood that the team that wins Game 1 of the World Series goes on to win the whole thing?
Which actually are the sort of questions I was interested in. And I liked that the author doesn't ask you to just take him at his word that the probability of event "X" is such-and-such value. Rather, he shows you the equations and the algebraic manipulations resulting in that value, so that if you're so inclined you can work through the math yourself. (There is one notable mistake, though, in the "double or bust" section on roulette where the author incorrectly treats a figure expressed in odds (chances for: chances against) as if it had been expressed as a probability instead.)
Overall, a fairly fun read. 3.5 stars, rounded down.
February 4, 2015
Baseball is a very cerebral game, both on and off the field. Overall athletic ability is less a precondition for success on the field than in any other major sport. Off the field, baseball fans use statistics in their arguments more than in any other sport. If your audience is interested in baseball, then it is easy to create scenarios that can be used to teach probability and statistics.
In chapter one, Ross uses batting averages, slugging percentage, on base percentage and on base plus slugging to explore the question, "Who's the best hitter?" Like so many before him, he reaches no definitive answer and is only able to come to some general conclusions. Chapters two through four examine basic probability, odds and expectation. Chapter four is entitled "What Would Pete Rose Do?", which is a derogatory reference to Rose's history of betting on sports and then lying about it. Unfortunately, Rose's name appears nowhere in the body of the chapter, although the coverage of the topic is excellent.
The title of chapter five is "Will the Yankees Win if Steinbrenner is Gone?" and deals with conditional probability. As was the case with chapter four, the name Steinbrenner never appears in the body of the chapter. The chapter that I found the most interesting was number six, "How Long Should the World Series Last?" Given that the probability of each team winning a particular game is the same and the games are independent, it is easy to determine the probability that the series will go a certain number of games. Chapters seven and eight deal with streaks, sequences of victories and how likely they are and given a streak, the probability that it will continue. Whatever you call them: streaks, momentum or "being hot", they all describe the most misunderstood concept in sports. Ross reaches the same conclusion that all others who have studied it reached. Namely, that there is no such thing as momentum. Good teams win consecutive games because they are good, not because they are hot. Strings of consecutive successes are very predictable and the higher the percentage of victory, the more frequent and lengthy their winning streaks will be. It is only the perception of the situation that leads people to believe otherwise.
Overall Ross does a good job in using baseball situations to demonstrate the basics of probability and statistics. However, some knowledge of the game is necessary if you are to understand it. Unfortunately, he chooses to make the titles of two chapter's negative comments on two of baseball's major figures. I personally dislike Pete Rose and George Steinbrenner a lot, considering them both to have had an overall negative impact on major league baseball. Nevertheless, I see no benefit to making the negative references to them when it is only the title of the chapter and not the point of the chapter.
Published in Journal of Recreational Mathematics, reprinted with permission and this review appears on Amazon
In chapter one, Ross uses batting averages, slugging percentage, on base percentage and on base plus slugging to explore the question, "Who's the best hitter?" Like so many before him, he reaches no definitive answer and is only able to come to some general conclusions. Chapters two through four examine basic probability, odds and expectation. Chapter four is entitled "What Would Pete Rose Do?", which is a derogatory reference to Rose's history of betting on sports and then lying about it. Unfortunately, Rose's name appears nowhere in the body of the chapter, although the coverage of the topic is excellent.
The title of chapter five is "Will the Yankees Win if Steinbrenner is Gone?" and deals with conditional probability. As was the case with chapter four, the name Steinbrenner never appears in the body of the chapter. The chapter that I found the most interesting was number six, "How Long Should the World Series Last?" Given that the probability of each team winning a particular game is the same and the games are independent, it is easy to determine the probability that the series will go a certain number of games. Chapters seven and eight deal with streaks, sequences of victories and how likely they are and given a streak, the probability that it will continue. Whatever you call them: streaks, momentum or "being hot", they all describe the most misunderstood concept in sports. Ross reaches the same conclusion that all others who have studied it reached. Namely, that there is no such thing as momentum. Good teams win consecutive games because they are good, not because they are hot. Strings of consecutive successes are very predictable and the higher the percentage of victory, the more frequent and lengthy their winning streaks will be. It is only the perception of the situation that leads people to believe otherwise.
Overall Ross does a good job in using baseball situations to demonstrate the basics of probability and statistics. However, some knowledge of the game is necessary if you are to understand it. Unfortunately, he chooses to make the titles of two chapter's negative comments on two of baseball's major figures. I personally dislike Pete Rose and George Steinbrenner a lot, considering them both to have had an overall negative impact on major league baseball. Nevertheless, I see no benefit to making the negative references to them when it is only the title of the chapter and not the point of the chapter.
Published in Journal of Recreational Mathematics, reprinted with permission and this review appears on Amazon
February 6, 2009
I absolutely love Baseball stats. I wallow in ERA, WHIP, SLG, OBP, OPS, SLOB, range factors, power/ speed numbers, all of the SABR minutiae. ESPN's BASEBALL ENCYCLOPEDIA is next to my bed right now. When an opposing batter comes to the plate the first thing I do, now that OBP and SLG are posted on the scoreboard, is figure his walks:strikeout ratio. ALL that being said, this book was sheer gobbledy-guck. Mainly, as far as I could make out amidst all of the probabilistic fog, this book appears to be concerned with how to bet on Baseball games, which is the one aspect of Baseball in which I have never had any interest. Also, he uses probability to try and determine whether an hypothetical World Series will go five, six, or seven games; Bill Lee, when asked by reporters to summarize the first two games of the '75 Series, responded "It's tied".
February 10, 2013
I teach high school mathematics. I'm always looking for ways to unpack concepts in a way that adolescents will understand.
Dr. Ross does an excellent job of explaining statistics and probability in terms any baseball fan or sports-minded teen can understand. His examples are clear and lead the reader to understanding with minimal effort on the readers part.
Read this book with a pencil and sheet of paper at your side.
Dr. Ross does an excellent job of explaining statistics and probability in terms any baseball fan or sports-minded teen can understand. His examples are clear and lead the reader to understanding with minimal effort on the readers part.
Read this book with a pencil and sheet of paper at your side.
August 27, 2007
Interesting enough, but the math was a little over my head and, frankly, all the focus on using statistics and probability to win bets on baseball made me deeply uncomfortable. By no means a bad book, especially if you're more into intense math than I am, but something about it left a bad taste in my mouth. By far the best part was the baseball book bibliography at the back.
March 28, 2013
Not enough baseball and too much on betting, but still liked it. What could be better than baseball and stats?
May 30, 2014
It was fine. Gave new perspective on the mathematical side of baseball.
April 25, 2017
This book was more math than baseball. It was essentially a first course in stats and probability using baseball for most of the examples.
The best part was the appendix, where the author summarizes 17 interesting sabermetric articles.
The best part was the appendix, where the author summarizes 17 interesting sabermetric articles.
Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews