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Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak
With world oil production about to peak and inexorably head toward steep decline, what fuels are available to meet rising global energy demands? That question, once thought to address a fairly remote contingency, has become ever more urgent, as a spate of books has drawn increased public attention to the imminent exhaustion of the economically vital world oil reserves. Deffeyes, a geologist who was among the first to warn of the coming oil crisis, now takes the next logical step and turns his attention to the earth's supply of potential replacement fuels. In Beyond Oil , he traces out their likely production futures, with special reference to that of oil, utilizing the same analytic tools developed by his former colleague, the pioneering petroleum-supply authority M. King Hubbert.
The book includes chapters on natural gas, coal, tar sands and heavy oils, oil shale, uranium, and (although not strictly an energy resource itself) hydrogen. A concluding chapter on the overall energy picture covers the likely mix of energy sources the world can rely on for the near-term future, and the special roles that will need to be played by conservation, high-mileage diesel automobiles, nuclear power plants, and wind-generated electricity.
An acknowledged expert in the field, Deffeyes brings a deeply informed, yet optimistic approach to bear on the growing debate. His main concern is not our long-term adaptation to a world beyond oil but our immediate "Through our inattention, we have wasted the years that we might have used to prepare for lessened oil supplies. The next ten years are critical."
The book includes chapters on natural gas, coal, tar sands and heavy oils, oil shale, uranium, and (although not strictly an energy resource itself) hydrogen. A concluding chapter on the overall energy picture covers the likely mix of energy sources the world can rely on for the near-term future, and the special roles that will need to be played by conservation, high-mileage diesel automobiles, nuclear power plants, and wind-generated electricity.
An acknowledged expert in the field, Deffeyes brings a deeply informed, yet optimistic approach to bear on the growing debate. His main concern is not our long-term adaptation to a world beyond oil but our immediate "Through our inattention, we have wasted the years that we might have used to prepare for lessened oil supplies. The next ten years are critical."
224 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2005
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March 12, 2017
الكتاب يتحدث عن البدائل المقترحة للنفط, اعتمادا على ذروة هابرت والتي تقول بأن عام 2000 هو ذروة انتاج النفط
وبما أننا دخلنا في مرحلة تناقص انتاج النفط العالمي فمن المفترض المسارعة في البحث عن بدائل
أعطاني فكرة أليمة بأن الطاقة المتجددة أو البديلة قد تأخر الوقت في دراستها وتطبيقها وكأنه قد فات أيضا!
لذا هو يطرح المزيد من الأفكار حول مصادر بديلة تلوث البيئة, ويبدو المؤلف بحكم تخصصه في الجيلوجيا في مجال النفط ربما, غير مبال بدرجة كبيرة بمسألة البيئة و سخر منها مرة أو اثنتين
أصحاب القلوب الخضراء الممتلئة بحس المسئولية تجاه كوكبهم لا ينصحون بقراءة هذا الكتاب
طرح 6 بدائل تقريبا هي الغاز الطبيعي و الفحم الحجري و الرمال القيرية والسجيل النفطي واليورانيم و الهيدروجين
كلها متوفرة لكن استغلالها واستخراجها و المشاكل والعوائق التي ترافقها كبيرةوتحتاج لمزيد من البحوث والدراسات والجهود لحلها واستغلالها لتطرح بديلا عن النفط
النقطة الأشد إثارة بالنسبة لي, ولو أن المؤلف لم يفصل فيها كثيراً أن الطاقة وانخفاض انتاج النفط سيكون سبباً للحروب وطبعا منطقة الخليج هي الساحة مالم يتوفر البديل
لذا أعتقد أن على دول المنطقة المسارعة في البحث عن بدائل وليس انتظار الآخرين ليجدوا لنا البدائل ومن ثم نقلدهم فيها, فلسنا بحاجة لمزيد من الدماء والحروب!
وبما أننا دخلنا في مرحلة تناقص انتاج النفط العالمي فمن المفترض المسارعة في البحث عن بدائل
أعطاني فكرة أليمة بأن الطاقة المتجددة أو البديلة قد تأخر الوقت في دراستها وتطبيقها وكأنه قد فات أيضا!
لذا هو يطرح المزيد من الأفكار حول مصادر بديلة تلوث البيئة, ويبدو المؤلف بحكم تخصصه في الجيلوجيا في مجال النفط ربما, غير مبال بدرجة كبيرة بمسألة البيئة و سخر منها مرة أو اثنتين
أصحاب القلوب الخضراء الممتلئة بحس المسئولية تجاه كوكبهم لا ينصحون بقراءة هذا الكتاب
طرح 6 بدائل تقريبا هي الغاز الطبيعي و الفحم الحجري و الرمال القيرية والسجيل النفطي واليورانيم و الهيدروجين
كلها متوفرة لكن استغلالها واستخراجها و المشاكل والعوائق التي ترافقها كبيرةوتحتاج لمزيد من البحوث والدراسات والجهود لحلها واستغلالها لتطرح بديلا عن النفط
النقطة الأشد إثارة بالنسبة لي, ولو أن المؤلف لم يفصل فيها كثيراً أن الطاقة وانخفاض انتاج النفط سيكون سبباً للحروب وطبعا منطقة الخليج هي الساحة مالم يتوفر البديل
لذا أعتقد أن على دول المنطقة المسارعة في البحث عن بدائل وليس انتظار الآخرين ليجدوا لنا البدائل ومن ثم نقلدهم فيها, فلسنا بحاجة لمزيد من الدماء والحروب!
July 22, 2019
"The fat lady is singing" (p. 49)
"Hubbert's Peak" is at the top of the bell-shaped curve of world oil production, just at the spot where production starts to decline. Geologist Kenneth Deffeyes sets a likely date: Thanksgiving Day, 2005. I have read other sources and they agree that half the oil in the ground will be out of the ground by a similar date or not later than about 2010. True, there are others who give it another decade or so, but they are in the minority. At any rate, Deffeyes has his old mentor's curve to support his view. M. King Hubbert was the guy who predicted with startling accuracy when US oil production would peak (early 1970s). Deffeyes uses the same methodology to predict the peak for world oil production.
The bugaboo here of course is that world oil demand will not decrease, but with the rapid industrialization of places like China and India, it will increase, perhaps dramatically. The result? Higher oil prices, of course. In fact, Deffeyes's book, written last year, effectively predicted the current spike in oil prices! Clearly he is a man to listen to. But the salient point is in his title: "Beyond Oil."
Metaphorically, he sees us gazing down from Hubbert's peak (which is exactly where we are) looking back and looking forward and asking, just what will the world be like "beyond oil"? Ah, yes, like the baby suckling the bottle, we will soon or late, abruptly or with planned gradualness (but always with some kind of real discomfort), have to give up our dependence on cheap oil and switch to something else.
What Deffeyes does so very well in this intriguing and thoroughly enjoyable book is first give us the background on oil, where it came from, and explain in detail why it's clear that production is about to decline. It is interesting to note that the Hubbert/Deffeyes method allows us to chart how much oil is left simply by gauging past and current production. I was surprised at this, because who is to say how much is left in the ground; but Deffeyes's point is that oil exploration and production has been so extensive world-wide that just by reading the production we can realize what is left. In other words, if the oil were there, it would have been discovered and drilled for. This is not to say that there are not some (small) fields left undiscovered. There are a few, no doubt, but like puddles added to a great lake, they won't affect the overall picture.
Then he explores the extent to which we can switch to natural gas and/or coal to create electricity and to run our transportation systems. The US has some of the largest coal reserves in the world along with China and Russia. But the problem with coal is pollution and toxins and the cost of filtering them out at the smokestack. China right now uses coal for almost everything, including cooking family meals, and the clouds, reminiscent of those that choked London during the Industrial Revolution, are gathering thickly over Chinese cities. But Deffeyes notes, "...we likely will be forced to choose either increased pollution from coal or doing without a significant portion of our present-day energy supply." (p. 98)
Next he looks into the possibility of greater production from tar sand, heavy oil and oil shade. Canada has huge reserves, we have substantial ones, but the question is cost of extraction and refinement. Deffeyes delineates the difficulties.
Finally he comes to nuclear power. His expression strongly suggest that we need to rethink our attitude toward the nuke (and possibly learn to love it!).
There is also a chapter on the so-called "hydrogen economy." I have read a couple of books on the prospects for fuel cells using hydrogen as a "clean air" replacement for gasoline and I can tell you that for several reasons we are long, long way from that reality. Deffeyes succinctly reiterates that view.
The final chapter, "The Big Picture" is most interesting. Deffeyes, who is a gifted teacher as well as being a seasoned geologist, points to another, perhaps more acute shortage (albeit many years in the future): mineable phosphate. He brings this up to make the point that the coming oil shortage is just another obstacle along the way that we clever humans will have to negotiate. He also notes that global per capita oil production peaked long ago in 1979! (p. 177) We are producing people faster than oil. Another topical point: world oil consumption is about 25 billion barrels a year; US consumption about a fourth of that. The reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge equal about 5 billion barrels, or as Deffeyes puts it, the equivalent of world use for two or three months.
Some Deffeyes-isms:
"Trade in your Hummer or Porsche Cayenne; find some other way of publicizing your testosterone." (p. 8)
On his discovery of "queueing theory" (well-known to phone companies and others who have to regulate traffic): "All I knew about queueing was that the word had five consecutive vowels." (p. 31) (Actually "queuing" is an acceptable spelling.)
Commenting on freshmen studying environmental issues "through literary, philosophical, ethical, spiritual, or other humanistic perspectives" (instead of getting out in the field): "We've elevated scientific ignorance to an art form." (p. 169)
"All policy wonks and all futurologists need to keep a geologist around." The implication being, somebody who isn't afraid to get his or her hands dirty, and somebody who knows that the oil peak "is just one of the geological constraints on our future society." (p. 141)
On a very efficient oil drilling site: "The crew on site will consist of a driller and a dog. The driller is there to feed the dog. The dog is there to bite the driller if he touches anything." (p. 26)
--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”
"Hubbert's Peak" is at the top of the bell-shaped curve of world oil production, just at the spot where production starts to decline. Geologist Kenneth Deffeyes sets a likely date: Thanksgiving Day, 2005. I have read other sources and they agree that half the oil in the ground will be out of the ground by a similar date or not later than about 2010. True, there are others who give it another decade or so, but they are in the minority. At any rate, Deffeyes has his old mentor's curve to support his view. M. King Hubbert was the guy who predicted with startling accuracy when US oil production would peak (early 1970s). Deffeyes uses the same methodology to predict the peak for world oil production.
The bugaboo here of course is that world oil demand will not decrease, but with the rapid industrialization of places like China and India, it will increase, perhaps dramatically. The result? Higher oil prices, of course. In fact, Deffeyes's book, written last year, effectively predicted the current spike in oil prices! Clearly he is a man to listen to. But the salient point is in his title: "Beyond Oil."
Metaphorically, he sees us gazing down from Hubbert's peak (which is exactly where we are) looking back and looking forward and asking, just what will the world be like "beyond oil"? Ah, yes, like the baby suckling the bottle, we will soon or late, abruptly or with planned gradualness (but always with some kind of real discomfort), have to give up our dependence on cheap oil and switch to something else.
What Deffeyes does so very well in this intriguing and thoroughly enjoyable book is first give us the background on oil, where it came from, and explain in detail why it's clear that production is about to decline. It is interesting to note that the Hubbert/Deffeyes method allows us to chart how much oil is left simply by gauging past and current production. I was surprised at this, because who is to say how much is left in the ground; but Deffeyes's point is that oil exploration and production has been so extensive world-wide that just by reading the production we can realize what is left. In other words, if the oil were there, it would have been discovered and drilled for. This is not to say that there are not some (small) fields left undiscovered. There are a few, no doubt, but like puddles added to a great lake, they won't affect the overall picture.
Then he explores the extent to which we can switch to natural gas and/or coal to create electricity and to run our transportation systems. The US has some of the largest coal reserves in the world along with China and Russia. But the problem with coal is pollution and toxins and the cost of filtering them out at the smokestack. China right now uses coal for almost everything, including cooking family meals, and the clouds, reminiscent of those that choked London during the Industrial Revolution, are gathering thickly over Chinese cities. But Deffeyes notes, "...we likely will be forced to choose either increased pollution from coal or doing without a significant portion of our present-day energy supply." (p. 98)
Next he looks into the possibility of greater production from tar sand, heavy oil and oil shade. Canada has huge reserves, we have substantial ones, but the question is cost of extraction and refinement. Deffeyes delineates the difficulties.
Finally he comes to nuclear power. His expression strongly suggest that we need to rethink our attitude toward the nuke (and possibly learn to love it!).
There is also a chapter on the so-called "hydrogen economy." I have read a couple of books on the prospects for fuel cells using hydrogen as a "clean air" replacement for gasoline and I can tell you that for several reasons we are long, long way from that reality. Deffeyes succinctly reiterates that view.
The final chapter, "The Big Picture" is most interesting. Deffeyes, who is a gifted teacher as well as being a seasoned geologist, points to another, perhaps more acute shortage (albeit many years in the future): mineable phosphate. He brings this up to make the point that the coming oil shortage is just another obstacle along the way that we clever humans will have to negotiate. He also notes that global per capita oil production peaked long ago in 1979! (p. 177) We are producing people faster than oil. Another topical point: world oil consumption is about 25 billion barrels a year; US consumption about a fourth of that. The reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge equal about 5 billion barrels, or as Deffeyes puts it, the equivalent of world use for two or three months.
Some Deffeyes-isms:
"Trade in your Hummer or Porsche Cayenne; find some other way of publicizing your testosterone." (p. 8)
On his discovery of "queueing theory" (well-known to phone companies and others who have to regulate traffic): "All I knew about queueing was that the word had five consecutive vowels." (p. 31) (Actually "queuing" is an acceptable spelling.)
Commenting on freshmen studying environmental issues "through literary, philosophical, ethical, spiritual, or other humanistic perspectives" (instead of getting out in the field): "We've elevated scientific ignorance to an art form." (p. 169)
"All policy wonks and all futurologists need to keep a geologist around." The implication being, somebody who isn't afraid to get his or her hands dirty, and somebody who knows that the oil peak "is just one of the geological constraints on our future society." (p. 141)
On a very efficient oil drilling site: "The crew on site will consist of a driller and a dog. The driller is there to feed the dog. The dog is there to bite the driller if he touches anything." (p. 26)
--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”
February 8, 2021
Geologist discusses gas, coal, heavy oil, oil shale, uranium, and hydrogen for energy use.
Some economics and suggestions for individuals.
Get hydrogen electric car, shorten commute. Use a bike and walk instead of driving.
Buy local, in-season crops. Can and preserve your own food.
Get LED lights.
Use less ac/heating.
Get exhaust fans - one for attic heat others for windows
For the really serious - insulate house, use solar/wind etc power, put on a sod-roof.
Some economics and suggestions for individuals.
Get hydrogen electric car, shorten commute. Use a bike and walk instead of driving.
Buy local, in-season crops. Can and preserve your own food.
Get LED lights.
Use less ac/heating.
Get exhaust fans - one for attic heat others for windows
For the really serious - insulate house, use solar/wind etc power, put on a sod-roof.
April 5, 2020
This is an old book, published in 2006, but I wanted to compare the past predictions to today’s cheap oil prices. Of course, today’s prices are more related to politics (and the pandemic), not actual world demand. The book focus on the technical aspects of the debate. But it is quite plainly written, and more importantly it lays very solid groundwork to discuss oil alternatives.
gone-gave-away
March 14, 2024Fracking made these books obsolete.
Donating.
The value of my house keeps going up here in the Houston area.
Of course, under the Shuffler In Chief, everything is going up.
State of the Union lays out a lot of free rides ahead though.
Donating.
The value of my house keeps going up here in the Houston area.
Of course, under the Shuffler In Chief, everything is going up.
State of the Union lays out a lot of free rides ahead though.
December 12, 2024
An old book. Plainly but elegantly written - and particularly interesting to read almost twenty years later in light of its predictions. Not entirely sure they ended up being very correct.
February 25, 2017
I understood about 50% of this haha but it was still interesting and informative. I should've probably read a more basic primer about the science/economics of oil before jumping into this.
May 20, 2012
Written by an oilman, this View from Hubbert's Peak is reluctant to bite the hand that fed him and certainly posits the continued existence of industrial civilisation. That apart, the message is as stark as Climate Wars and The Long Emergency but not Deep Green Resistance.
It's a hard read but not for that reason: the thoughts are haphazard and some are pure non sequiturs. A good editor would have reigned Mr Deffeyes in. A pity because I think I've teased out the essence of Hubbert's Peak, with a struggle. It has its roots in population dynamics, which roughly say: you can tell how much is left to come by how much has been used and is being used. In other words: bar a miracle the future is knowable.
And the future is the downswing of the oil production pendulum. Now. So what will replace it as fuel?
The chapters on tar sands and shale oil confirm that, despite the modern hysteria, both are as old as industry itself. Travel between Edinburgh and Glasgow to see the remains of historic workings, for instance. Cheap oil gushing out of the ground put paid to these, the key word being cheap. Now that liquid oil is dearer, it pays to exploit these harder-to-work sources. But they will still produce expensive oil, maybe too expensive.
An earlier chapter on coal presents a similar story: it'll return to fashion, along with most of its old pollution and health problems.
So to uranium, i.e. nuclear. If Deffeyes is slightly optimistic about it, he was writing before Fukushima. Nuclear is now pretty much a dead duck and we skip quickly on to hydrogen, our saviour.
Not. It too is mature technology that still only delivers 40% of the energy put into it. Oh, we may struggle up to 50% but that's a loss nonetheless.
Since this is a book about fuel, wind and solar occupy one sentence, which is about appropriate for the contribution they'll make to our gargantuan energy needs anyhow. Both also are offspring of the business-as-usual model and Deffeyes' conclusion that BAU is not on the cards also puts them in their place.
That's it for the inside scoop. Just a shame about the scattergun organisation of the book.
It's a hard read but not for that reason: the thoughts are haphazard and some are pure non sequiturs. A good editor would have reigned Mr Deffeyes in. A pity because I think I've teased out the essence of Hubbert's Peak, with a struggle. It has its roots in population dynamics, which roughly say: you can tell how much is left to come by how much has been used and is being used. In other words: bar a miracle the future is knowable.
And the future is the downswing of the oil production pendulum. Now. So what will replace it as fuel?
The chapters on tar sands and shale oil confirm that, despite the modern hysteria, both are as old as industry itself. Travel between Edinburgh and Glasgow to see the remains of historic workings, for instance. Cheap oil gushing out of the ground put paid to these, the key word being cheap. Now that liquid oil is dearer, it pays to exploit these harder-to-work sources. But they will still produce expensive oil, maybe too expensive.
An earlier chapter on coal presents a similar story: it'll return to fashion, along with most of its old pollution and health problems.
So to uranium, i.e. nuclear. If Deffeyes is slightly optimistic about it, he was writing before Fukushima. Nuclear is now pretty much a dead duck and we skip quickly on to hydrogen, our saviour.
Not. It too is mature technology that still only delivers 40% of the energy put into it. Oh, we may struggle up to 50% but that's a loss nonetheless.
Since this is a book about fuel, wind and solar occupy one sentence, which is about appropriate for the contribution they'll make to our gargantuan energy needs anyhow. Both also are offspring of the business-as-usual model and Deffeyes' conclusion that BAU is not on the cards also puts them in their place.
That's it for the inside scoop. Just a shame about the scattergun organisation of the book.
October 22, 2014
A very dry read but extremely informative. The author is a petroleum geologist. He understands the nut n bolts of exploration, discovery and crude oil delivery systems. He was a student of Hubbert who first predicted a peak in production of oil. He also has the knowledge to take on the detractors who muddy the waters by pointing out that Hubbert's original projections were off. He doesn't waste a lot of time with the detractors, as no one else should. Their waggish complaints miss the point. Hubbert was a scientist and so is Deffeyes. Science makes projections that are meant to be refined. The basic trend that Hubbert suggested has not been refuted or falsified. Politicians and Fox pundits mostly throw mud in the water in the hopes that the simple minded will be confused and hopefully support the doctrinaire.
July 17, 2007
So I bought this book thinking it was going to be all about the next clean burning miracle fuel that's lined up to replace oil, and well, turns out there isn't one yet. The book is about how the world basically hit it's peak potential oil output back in 2005-2006, that world oil production is going to steadily decline from here on, and that most current potential oil "alternatives" actually depend on hydrocarbons at one and sometimes multiple stages in their manufacture. It wasn't the book of hope that I thought I was buying, but it did get me up to speed on our current global energy situation.
February 14, 2011
Good book. Introduced me to the idea that the world is running out of accessible cheap oil. I really liked the technical aspect of it. The math behind the phenomena reinforced some things I learned in statistics. What I enjoyed the most though was the explanation of the different energy sources available today. The descriptions were somewhat technical but as a budding engineer it was great. It would be hard for someone to pick this up with out a science background.
May 23, 2015
Good, but it covers much of the same ground as his previous Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. You could go with either. I believe they remain relevant today.
May 18, 2007
A rather boring but informational look at oil as a fuel, the debate about how much is left, the impending switch to a new fuel and the alternatives we should begin to develop. Hey, I had to teach high schoolers about petroleum. And I want to know where we are heading.
September 29, 2008
I did not finish this book. I am giving it 3-stars because I enjoyed the chapter which derived Hubbard's Equations. Otherwise the book is not well written and I did not find it particularly interesting.
August 4, 2008
This may be a bit technical for many people but is a good general introduction. The best part is his chapter 3, I believe, where he describes roughly the mathematics involved in Hubbert's original thesis. If it's too technical, read "The Party's Over" by Heinberg.
August 27, 2009
the chapter on nuclear energy is so amazing. uranium, plutionium, waste, destruction, i get it now. other sections of the book highlight different natural resources from oil to oil shale to hydrogen.
August 10, 2013
The materials in this book are very outdated and worst still contradict the books direction. The author made a bold statement saying that shale gas was too expensive and would never take off. We all know the contrary happened.
June 11, 2007
deffeyes does a reasonable job updating the peak oil scenario and surveying the (lack of) alternative energies. better than his first book.
January 1, 2009
interesting....but scary.
March 19, 2008
Not awful considering the subject matter can be pretty dry. I appreciated the author's sense of humor. I learned quite a bit.
January 26, 2008
Good explanation of currently available oil sources, explains how much longer these will last. Also describes new sources of fuel. Good primer on 'traditional' energy sources.
July 21, 2008
A good grounding to understand the energy position we are now in. Where we came from and possible where we are headed. Deffeyes does not provide answers just insight.
Currently reading
January 25, 2009So far I am LOVING this book.
June 4, 2011
Good book for background in geology. Otherwise presents no useful information or plausible solutions.
June 19, 2011
Not as valuable as his first book on peak oil. Just a wide ranging discussion of possible alternatives that won't come on line to scale for another 20 years.
September 25, 2011
المؤلف يتناول السؤال التالي ...
ماذا أعددنا لما بعد النفط ؟
يحاول الإجابة علية ... و لكن للأسف يحمل نظرة سلبية عن الوضع الحالي
ماذا أعددنا لما بعد النفط ؟
يحاول الإجابة علية ... و لكن للأسف يحمل نظرة سلبية عن الوضع الحالي
December 29, 2012
Very technical in some areas. I feel like I'd need to read it a couple times to really get all the details about oil production in the book.
December 13, 2025
Fun read. Enjoyable!
August 6, 2008
An interesting perspective, especially with the current energy crisis concerns.
Displaying 1 - 29 of 29 reviews