On Borrowed Time: Assessing the Threat of Mineral Depletion

by John Tilton

The sharp rise in mineral use has revived concern about scarcity. Economist John Tilton responds by analyzing recent trends in the consumption and availability of minerals that are most integral to the needs of modern civilization. He reminds readers that, if the arguments about scarcity sound familiar, it is because the story of minerals scarcity is almost as old as human history-and so too is substitution and technological innovation. The issue at hand is the unprecedented acceleration in exploitation and use. Given global population growth, rising living standards, and environmental concerns, how seriously should today‘s society take the threat of mineral exhaustion? On Borrowed Time? provides general interest and student readers with an accessible framework for understanding scarcity. Tilton defines important concepts and explores the methods used to study mineral scarcity, including physical measures of known reserves and the total resource base, and economic measures, such as extraction and end-user costs. He notes the increasing emphasis on the social and environmental costs of mineral production and use, placing the scarcity debate in context of broader concerns about sustainability and equity. He adds a history of thought about scarcity, from Malthus and Ricardo to Harold Hotelling, Donella Meadows, to the present day.

Genres: Nonfiction

158 pages, Hardcover

First published October 1, 2002

Reviews

[Douglass Gaking · Rating 4 out of 5]

On Borrowed Time is a both comprehensive and concise study of the economics of mined resources and their related commodities. It is the perfect resource for anyone interested in investing or working in these commodities or their related industries or getting a better handle on how to interpret physical and economic measures of resource availability. There are also significant applications for ecology and conservation efforts, which are addressed throughout the book. The included figures are very supportive and accompanied by explanations that make them easy to interpret. Tilton combines history, economics, and industry expertise to approach resource scarcity from every angle, but explains in a way that prior expertise in these areas is not necessary for the reader to comprehend.

The thesis is that enough minerals exist to sustain human usage for potentially millions of years; scarcity at any given moment is the result of the limitations of current technology and capital. As technology improves, it usually allows for extraction at monetary and environmental costs that society is willing to accept. If it ever reaches a point where it is possible, but no longer worth the costs, then society replaces the mineral with something else. We currently see natural gas, wind, and solar energy replacing coal for this reason. We are not running out of coal, it’s just not worth digging up as much as we used to. This is thanks to increased awareness of coal’s environmental costs, government subsidization of renewable energy investment, new technologies like fracking and more efficient wind and power generation, and natural market forces. All of these factors can work together to keep mineral allocation sustainable.