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Outrageous Fortunes: The Twelve Surprising Trends That Will Reshape the Global Economy
A Harvard-trained economist's startling predictions reveal critical challenges in the decades ahead, helping individuals, businesses, and governments to make smarter decisions As individuals, companies, and countries struggle to recover from the economic crisis, many are narrowly focused on forecasts for the next week, month, or quarter. Yet they should be asking what the global economy will look like in the years to come—where will the long-term risks and opportunities arise? These are the questions that Daniel Altman confronts in his provocative and indispensable book. The fate of the global economy, Altman argues, will be determined by deeper factors than those that move markets from moment to moment. His incisive analysis brings together hidden trends, societal pressures, and policy endgames to make twelve surprising but logical predictions about the years ahead. And his forecasts for the future raise a pressing question for With so many challenges awaiting us, are our political and economic institutions up to the task? Outrageous Fortunes tells which industries will grow, which economies will crumble, which investments will pay off, and where the next big crisis may occur. Altman's carefully reasoned text is an essential guide for the road ahead.
272 pages, Hardcover
First published January 4, 2011
11 people are currently reading
87 people want to read
About the author
Daniel Altman
18 books3 followers Daniel Altman is an American-born author, journalist and economist. His
latest book, Connected: 24 Hours in the Global Economy, was published
in May 2007 by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. He is also the author of Neoconomy:
George Bush's Revolutionary Gamble With America's Future, which was
published by PublicAffairs in 2004.
Altman began his career as an academic economist with a doctorate from
Harvard University. His first job outside the ivory tower was as the London-
based economics correspondent for The Economist. Later he became one
of the youngest-ever members of the editorial board of The New York Times.
He current writes regular columns on globalization for the International Herald
Tribune. In between, he was an economic adviser to the British government.
For the past year, Altman has been writing a weekday blog for the Herald
Tribune called Managing Globalization. He lives in Buenos Aires, Hong
Kong and New York. (from the author's website)"
latest book, Connected: 24 Hours in the Global Economy, was published
in May 2007 by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. He is also the author of Neoconomy:
George Bush's Revolutionary Gamble With America's Future, which was
published by PublicAffairs in 2004.
Altman began his career as an academic economist with a doctorate from
Harvard University. His first job outside the ivory tower was as the London-
based economics correspondent for The Economist. Later he became one
of the youngest-ever members of the editorial board of The New York Times.
He current writes regular columns on globalization for the International Herald
Tribune. In between, he was an economic adviser to the British government.
For the past year, Altman has been writing a weekday blog for the Herald
Tribune called Managing Globalization. He lives in Buenos Aires, Hong
Kong and New York. (from the author's website)"
Ratings & Reviews
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Displaying 1 - 18 of 18 reviews
March 26, 2011
‘At any one moment, there are innumerable possibilities for the state of the global economy.’
Economic predictions are difficult: there’s plenty of data that seems relevant (such as rates of unemployment and inflation and movements on the various world stock markets). But most of these numbers relate to the past and while they may give some indication of likely trends in the immediate future these metrics won’t necessarily tell us much about the long term – either for a particular country or for the global economy.
In this book, Daniel Altman, an American economist, analyses a number of different key factors that underpin the world’s economies as a way of refocussing economic prediction on the longer term. These factors include climate, culture, demography, geography, natural resources and politics.
I was particularly interested in his thoughts about China. Mr Altman predicts that China is not likely to overtake the USA as the world’s leading economic power. There are two main reasons given for this: China’s culture is still hierarchical and is in many ways inflexible, sometimes corrupt and generally poor in technology infrastructure. As a consequence, China is not an ideal environment in which to support start-up business. More importantly, China is (courtesy of the ‘one-child policy’) the fastest ageing country in the world. By 2050, China will have hundreds of millions of aged citizens to support, and the growth of average incomes will be constrained as a consequence.
China’s moment in economic history, according to Mr Altman, ‘will be impressive, but brief’. I’m intrigued, but I think that there are other possibilities. For me, the issue is not whether Mr Altman is (or may be) correct, it’s trying to identify and understand the various factors that influence growth and prosperity.
Mr Altman suggests some risks to global prosperity, including the possibility that increased economic regulation in wealthy nations will lead to off-shore black markets. Presumable, not everyone would agree that off-shore black markets are necessarily a bad thing (at least not in the short-term) but the long term consequences are unlikely to be beneficial. Global warming is identified as another risk on a couple of different levels. Firstly, it will have a direct and significant effect on tropical regions. Secondly, a ‘cap and trade’ system which provides financial incentives to businesses to reduce polluting emissions may result in rich countries becoming richer, while poor and dirty countries become poorer and dirtier. And the rich world’s immigration policies (taking the best and brightest applicants) also have the potential to (further) damage the poorest countries.
I’m intrigued by Mr Altman’s suggestion that Americans may become the premier sales force in the world. I wonder what they will be selling, and to who?
This is an interesting book, and well worth reading. It isn’t necessary to agree with Mr Altman’s conclusions to derive benefit from the book; it is useful to think about the issues raised.
Jennifer Cameron-Smith
Economic predictions are difficult: there’s plenty of data that seems relevant (such as rates of unemployment and inflation and movements on the various world stock markets). But most of these numbers relate to the past and while they may give some indication of likely trends in the immediate future these metrics won’t necessarily tell us much about the long term – either for a particular country or for the global economy.
In this book, Daniel Altman, an American economist, analyses a number of different key factors that underpin the world’s economies as a way of refocussing economic prediction on the longer term. These factors include climate, culture, demography, geography, natural resources and politics.
I was particularly interested in his thoughts about China. Mr Altman predicts that China is not likely to overtake the USA as the world’s leading economic power. There are two main reasons given for this: China’s culture is still hierarchical and is in many ways inflexible, sometimes corrupt and generally poor in technology infrastructure. As a consequence, China is not an ideal environment in which to support start-up business. More importantly, China is (courtesy of the ‘one-child policy’) the fastest ageing country in the world. By 2050, China will have hundreds of millions of aged citizens to support, and the growth of average incomes will be constrained as a consequence.
China’s moment in economic history, according to Mr Altman, ‘will be impressive, but brief’. I’m intrigued, but I think that there are other possibilities. For me, the issue is not whether Mr Altman is (or may be) correct, it’s trying to identify and understand the various factors that influence growth and prosperity.
Mr Altman suggests some risks to global prosperity, including the possibility that increased economic regulation in wealthy nations will lead to off-shore black markets. Presumable, not everyone would agree that off-shore black markets are necessarily a bad thing (at least not in the short-term) but the long term consequences are unlikely to be beneficial. Global warming is identified as another risk on a couple of different levels. Firstly, it will have a direct and significant effect on tropical regions. Secondly, a ‘cap and trade’ system which provides financial incentives to businesses to reduce polluting emissions may result in rich countries becoming richer, while poor and dirty countries become poorer and dirtier. And the rich world’s immigration policies (taking the best and brightest applicants) also have the potential to (further) damage the poorest countries.
I’m intrigued by Mr Altman’s suggestion that Americans may become the premier sales force in the world. I wonder what they will be selling, and to who?
This is an interesting book, and well worth reading. It isn’t necessary to agree with Mr Altman’s conclusions to derive benefit from the book; it is useful to think about the issues raised.
Jennifer Cameron-Smith
April 15, 2014
I found this book thought-provoking. It's a nice piece of thought leadership, although I don't necessarily agree with all of his trends. Here they are in a nutshell:
Part 1: Limits
1. China will get richer and then it will get poorer again.
2. The European Union will disintegrate as an economic entity.
Part 2: Obstacles
3. The new colonialism will leave the colonizers and the colonized worse off in the long term.
4. Changing immigration policies in rich countries will worsen the brain drain from poor countries even as they get richer.
5. The backlash against capitalism won't last but it won't be replaced by political stability either.
Part 3: Opportunities
6. Americans will become the world's sales force.
7. As the global economy integrates, the middle man will win.
8. The collapse of the World Trade Organization will unlock new gains from trade.
9. A new set of lifestyle hubs will replace today's business hubs.
Part 4: Risks
10. An enormous financial black market will arise outside of traditional centers.
11. Global warming will make rich countries cleaner and richer and poor countries dirtier and poorer.
12. The structure of political institutions will stop the world from solving its biggest problems.
Part 1: Limits
1. China will get richer and then it will get poorer again.
2. The European Union will disintegrate as an economic entity.
Part 2: Obstacles
3. The new colonialism will leave the colonizers and the colonized worse off in the long term.
4. Changing immigration policies in rich countries will worsen the brain drain from poor countries even as they get richer.
5. The backlash against capitalism won't last but it won't be replaced by political stability either.
Part 3: Opportunities
6. Americans will become the world's sales force.
7. As the global economy integrates, the middle man will win.
8. The collapse of the World Trade Organization will unlock new gains from trade.
9. A new set of lifestyle hubs will replace today's business hubs.
Part 4: Risks
10. An enormous financial black market will arise outside of traditional centers.
11. Global warming will make rich countries cleaner and richer and poor countries dirtier and poorer.
12. The structure of political institutions will stop the world from solving its biggest problems.
February 23, 2017
A thought provoking book for the macro global picture enthusiast.
October 16, 2013
The book is not revolutionary for those of us who read and subscribe to contrarian finance and thinking. However, it was worth the contextual, succinct global picture shaping the next 20+ years.
Main agreements: globalization will continue; there will be lifestyle hubs in parts of the world drawing international peoples; financial markets will become more automated with centers shifting off of Wall Street; aging demographics play a significant roll in the future of Western countries along w immigration policies.
Main disagreements: global warming has been debunked but the author chooses to believe in it rather than climate/polar shifts common & well documented through the ages; he does not spend enough time outlining the grave problems of Western governments tax & anti-true capitalist structures along with ignoring conscious capitalism in the face of huge corporations; emotional, herd mentality along w black swans are not taken into account for financial markets; lastly, his language gives the reader cause to think he is an Obama supporter.
Main agreements: globalization will continue; there will be lifestyle hubs in parts of the world drawing international peoples; financial markets will become more automated with centers shifting off of Wall Street; aging demographics play a significant roll in the future of Western countries along w immigration policies.
Main disagreements: global warming has been debunked but the author chooses to believe in it rather than climate/polar shifts common & well documented through the ages; he does not spend enough time outlining the grave problems of Western governments tax & anti-true capitalist structures along with ignoring conscious capitalism in the face of huge corporations; emotional, herd mentality along w black swans are not taken into account for financial markets; lastly, his language gives the reader cause to think he is an Obama supporter.
September 7, 2012
What are the long term trends that will affect the global economy and the countries within it? Altman proposes twelve trends but notes that any focus or attention on them could affect whether or not they actually occur. (I wonder if that is what fortune tellers say when you go to see them?) One trend that interested me was that "A new set of lifestyle hubs will replace today's business hubs". This trend suggests that many professional telecommuting people will re-locate from their native country to more attractive locations across the world. I found it hard to believe that people would give up their citizenship but then realized Altman wasn't really talking about my generation - he was talking about a younger generation that probably sees themselves more as citizens of the world than of a particular country.
January 27, 2012
I liked the way is structured showing the limits; obstacles; opportunities and risks of the current financial panorama. In short; the most important thing to remember here is that it is good to be rich because they are going to get richer. It is good to study not to do anything at all; but to be a middleman; because middlemen are the ones who are going to get all the monies. The WTO will no longer have power; mainly because it is of no use to its creators any more. And finally; the author proposes some political reforms that would help: double the presidential periods; reward the policy-makers that create long term policies and educate more in long-term planning. In sum; this book is worth a look.
August 12, 2012
NYU Professor, Daniel Altman offers up 12 'surprising' trends that will reshape the global economy in mostly, very easy to understand hypothesis and rationalization. A good portion of his 12 trends shouldn't surprise folk accustomed to reading newspapers and following global trends on a regular basis - but there a few interesting angles that provided food for thought. Altman frames his narrative in a very sound and coherent manner that will mostly appeal to the layperson, but an overall interesting read nonetheless.
April 29, 2014
the book talks about some interesting and worthwhile what-if scenarios
(1) will China emerge as the next leading power? (2) will EU disintegrate?
(3) colonization (4) immigration policies (5) capitalism (6) world's sales force (7) globalization and the middleman role (8) collapse of WTO (9) lifestyle hubs (10) financial black market (11) global warming (12) structure of current political system
Predicting the future is a difficult, if not impossible task. However, these questions remain interesting to note as and when such events unfold before us.
(1) will China emerge as the next leading power? (2) will EU disintegrate?
(3) colonization (4) immigration policies (5) capitalism (6) world's sales force (7) globalization and the middleman role (8) collapse of WTO (9) lifestyle hubs (10) financial black market (11) global warming (12) structure of current political system
Predicting the future is a difficult, if not impossible task. However, these questions remain interesting to note as and when such events unfold before us.
Read
March 23, 2011Listen to Daniel Altman on his "Outrageous Fortunes" here: http://bit.ly/i5wIbH
Everybody’s still worried about America’s economic future, and millions of Americans are living an untenable economic life right now. Unemployed. Under-employed. Watching savings, homes, benefits, dreams all drift away.
Altman explains what’s to come for the U.S. economy and what will decide the future of our economic standing and health. He parses out the deep trends pushing the global economy now.
Everybody’s still worried about America’s economic future, and millions of Americans are living an untenable economic life right now. Unemployed. Under-employed. Watching savings, homes, benefits, dreams all drift away.
Altman explains what’s to come for the U.S. economy and what will decide the future of our economic standing and health. He parses out the deep trends pushing the global economy now.
January 26, 2016
Was written only in 2011 and therefore post GFC so very relevant. Covers China's rise - and maybe fall, the comeback of the USA, global warming impact, World Trade organisation, lifestyle hubs, the rise of the "black"economy. It takes a longer term view and assists in understanding broader macro risks and opportunities in the global economy. Not all of it will come to fruition but makes one think.
PB
PB
May 25, 2014
I am always interested in big-picture trends. I figure people that write these books will have some insight into trends; maybe they are good or maybe not; nobody will be perfect. I don't read/listen uncritically. This book was "ok." I didn't finish listening to it all (book on CD), it wasn't that interesting; I got maybe halfway through and said "eh."
Read
May 6, 2015There are a few interesting things here but in general it's an academic economists view of the future. It suffers from the "Economic Man" Syndrome - theory heavy but lacking perspective when it comes to real human behavior. A much better read is George Friedman's The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century.
August 20, 2013
Interesting, near-future opinions about economics and ecology, population, politics...
July 31, 2014
Really Interesting book about the world's economy. Learned some really cool little tidbits from this book about the world that i did not know before. This book had a ton of information in it.
May 6, 2015
Valuable information. Worth the read.
April 9, 2016
Interesting premise.
August 10, 2011
Great playbook for following stock market sport
March 28, 2014
Was not a big fan book was disconnected hard to follow
Displaying 1 - 18 of 18 reviews