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The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation
Top economist Gary Shilling shows you how to prosper in the slow-growing and deflationary times that lie ahead While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author Gary Shilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that the global economy is going through a long period of de-leveraging and weak growth, which makes deflation far more likely and a far greater threat to investors than inflation. Shilling explains in clear language and compelling logic why the world economy will struggle for several more years and what investors can do to protect and grow their wealth in the difficult times ahead. The investment strategies that worked for last 25 years will not work in the next 10 years. Shilling advises readers to avoid broad exposure to stocks, real estate, and commodities and to focus on high-quality bonds, high-dividend stocks, and consumer staple and food stocks.Written by one of today's best forecasters of economic trends-twice voted by Institutional Investor as Wall Street's top economist Clearly explains what to invest in, what to avoid, and how to cope with a deflationary, slow-growth economy Demonstrates how Shilling has been consistently right about major economic trends since he began forecasting in the early 1980s Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this timely guide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to be prepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation-not inflation-and what you can do to prosper in the difficult times ahead.
544 pages, Kindle Edition
First published October 12, 2010
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Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews
September 8, 2011
While I basically agree with the author about the fate of our economy over the next several years, I don't think the book was particularly well-written. He spends too much time recounting his 15 or so predictions in the past 40 years that he has gotten right. Just so off topic. I really just wanted to see him present his evidence for why we are in an age of deleveraging, and why the opposing viewpoints are wrong. I mean, he does get around to that eventually, but it takes too long. This could have been a 50 pager.
(Since probably nobody but me will read this, I'm going to rant. I'm more than a little tired of the deceptive tricks of stock market prognosticators, whether it be bulls, bears, professors, chartists, whoever. Basically the pattern is to make about 100 predictions over some period of time, play up how smart they are when they inevitably get 1 or 2 predictions right, and never again mention the ones they get wrong. And along the way, thrash people with differing opinions as basically stupid, weak, short-sighted, whatever. This one guy I follow recently said "If you had listened to me when I said to buy gold in 2002, you would have avoided the stock market gyrations and now be up 2000%". Such a statement means almost nothing: in 2002, did he shove all his money into gold (if so he never mentioned it)? When gold started to go up, did he continue to say it would go up? Would he have held all the way up? I bought aapl in 2001 and sold the next year for a double. Score, right? Well, I had no way of knowing that it would continue to go up 4000% from where I sold. I couldn't stand the idea of buying higher after selling, so I missed the entire huge run of 2003-2006, and only got back in 2007 once the iPhone was released. Still a good move, but you can see that things are never as straight-forward when *your* money is on the line. If even one of these windbags would release their actual trades with actual money, then I'd be much more willing to believe that what they say represents anything more than another lottery ticket that they will redeem if and only when it's a winner.)
(Since probably nobody but me will read this, I'm going to rant. I'm more than a little tired of the deceptive tricks of stock market prognosticators, whether it be bulls, bears, professors, chartists, whoever. Basically the pattern is to make about 100 predictions over some period of time, play up how smart they are when they inevitably get 1 or 2 predictions right, and never again mention the ones they get wrong. And along the way, thrash people with differing opinions as basically stupid, weak, short-sighted, whatever. This one guy I follow recently said "If you had listened to me when I said to buy gold in 2002, you would have avoided the stock market gyrations and now be up 2000%". Such a statement means almost nothing: in 2002, did he shove all his money into gold (if so he never mentioned it)? When gold started to go up, did he continue to say it would go up? Would he have held all the way up? I bought aapl in 2001 and sold the next year for a double. Score, right? Well, I had no way of knowing that it would continue to go up 4000% from where I sold. I couldn't stand the idea of buying higher after selling, so I missed the entire huge run of 2003-2006, and only got back in 2007 once the iPhone was released. Still a good move, but you can see that things are never as straight-forward when *your* money is on the line. If even one of these windbags would release their actual trades with actual money, then I'd be much more willing to believe that what they say represents anything more than another lottery ticket that they will redeem if and only when it's a winner.)
November 17, 2011
This book was disappointing in so many way.
The author spends much time bleating about how many times he's been right,
but in the last 38 years, his columns at Forbes mag have been bearish every single time,
I can't remember a single time he was bullish, so eventually he had to get a bear market.
And the book is rift with errors,
He says the FED had a net income of $52.1 Billion with a $2.2 Billion balance sheet,
WOW, 2600% return on capital, even Goldman sucks can't do that.
hmmmm, actually gary, I think they had $2.2 TRILLION on the books,
but what's an error of $2.148 TRILLION among friends?
And he talks about graft and consumption being legendary in Brazil.
Consumption? is he talking about TB? mall rats going on a shopping spree?
Of course not, he meant "graft and corruption"
But when you're writing faster than you can babble,
errors do creep in.
he also "eschew"s the buy & hold strategy because of the "gambler's ruin paradox"
Well it's not really a paradox,
and unless you're buying on margin, you can't be sold out at the bottom,
so I don't think gary really knows what "gambler's ruin" is.
He talks about federal deficits, and has a scary chart showing SS, medicare, & medicaid going
to 24% of GDP.
When you look closer, the chart goes out to the year 2080,
2080? 70 years out?
How many adults among us will be alive then?
Can anyone really predict that far out?
And the trite cliches,
"Investors doubted that Greek leopards were going to change their spots..."
Ugly.
And a manic moment when he mentions that something happened the day he was born!
Gee, maybe the supreme court knew he was being born that day and ruled as they did because of it!
Go back to your Tarot cards gary, they're right more often than that kind of coincidentalism.
And he thinks mobile homes, , are "comparable or BETTER QUALITY" than on site built homes!!! GIVE ME A BREAK.
500 pages of wind,
but I believe he has one thing right,
devaluing the dollar doesn't decrease imports or increase exports.
Hmmm, if he believes that, maybe I'm wrong :(
I've read a lot of finance books, this has to be the worst.
The author spends much time bleating about how many times he's been right,
but in the last 38 years, his columns at Forbes mag have been bearish every single time,
I can't remember a single time he was bullish, so eventually he had to get a bear market.
And the book is rift with errors,
He says the FED had a net income of $52.1 Billion with a $2.2 Billion balance sheet,
WOW, 2600% return on capital, even Goldman sucks can't do that.
hmmmm, actually gary, I think they had $2.2 TRILLION on the books,
but what's an error of $2.148 TRILLION among friends?
And he talks about graft and consumption being legendary in Brazil.
Consumption? is he talking about TB? mall rats going on a shopping spree?
Of course not, he meant "graft and corruption"
But when you're writing faster than you can babble,
errors do creep in.
he also "eschew"s the buy & hold strategy because of the "gambler's ruin paradox"
Well it's not really a paradox,
and unless you're buying on margin, you can't be sold out at the bottom,
so I don't think gary really knows what "gambler's ruin" is.
He talks about federal deficits, and has a scary chart showing SS, medicare, & medicaid going
to 24% of GDP.
When you look closer, the chart goes out to the year 2080,
2080? 70 years out?
How many adults among us will be alive then?
Can anyone really predict that far out?
And the trite cliches,
"Investors doubted that Greek leopards were going to change their spots..."
Ugly.
And a manic moment when he mentions that something happened the day he was born!
Gee, maybe the supreme court knew he was being born that day and ruled as they did because of it!
Go back to your Tarot cards gary, they're right more often than that kind of coincidentalism.
And he thinks mobile homes, , are "comparable or BETTER QUALITY" than on site built homes!!! GIVE ME A BREAK.
500 pages of wind,
but I believe he has one thing right,
devaluing the dollar doesn't decrease imports or increase exports.
Hmmm, if he believes that, maybe I'm wrong :(
I've read a lot of finance books, this has to be the worst.
March 18, 2012
An astonishing and captivating book, Ayaan Hirsi Ali writes her life story in extremely clear language and a matter of fact tone. Ali’s book is a contrast between her rigid and religious upbringing in her North African and Middle Eastern homes, and her later emigration to Europe and the US. Unlike most biographies, though, it is Ali’s upbringing rather than her later accomplishments (which are considerable) that is most compelling - and likely to most of us in the West, startling.
“People in the West … have learned not to examine the religions or cultures of minorities too critically, for fear of being called racist,” writes Ali in the final pages of her book, and it is for this reason that the book is such a page-turner and so important. While we may have caught glimpses into life and culture in Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Saudi Arabia through the mirky mirrors of op-ed pieces or articles, Ali both provides a large, clear window and through the retelling of her story acts as our guide.
The culture is so foreign, with just a few geographic names and historical events recognizable, that it has a ring of science fiction. (Words such as Osman, Darod, jilbab, ma’alim are common). The events are very human and very alarming, though, and it is Ali’s lack of anger, regret or moralizing that allows - compels - readers to read on.
As the narrative progresses, it becomes clear that Ali is an exceptional girl and woman, and it is very clear that her departure from her culture is also an exception. In her culture, her upbringing and life are the rule, and there is no choice for almost any female in a similar circumstance. Ali’s adult life in the West is a stark contrast, but through her fresh eyes she provides interesting insights that make us question our own belief systems and societal structure. She notes the parallels between the clan cultures of her youth and the cliques of her Dutch university, and later the relative morals her Dutch parliament colleagues as they wrestle with actions (specifically Ali’s expulsion from the country) necessary to maintain power. Earlier, Ali had noted the life and death trade-offs in refugee camps, and that morals were irrelevant when basic needs couldn’t be met.
Many autobiographies are written to celebrate, frame or even justify successes or actions later in the author’s life. Ali’s is riveting and thought provoking from start to finish, and is recommended reading for all. An exceptional and important work.
“People in the West … have learned not to examine the religions or cultures of minorities too critically, for fear of being called racist,” writes Ali in the final pages of her book, and it is for this reason that the book is such a page-turner and so important. While we may have caught glimpses into life and culture in Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Saudi Arabia through the mirky mirrors of op-ed pieces or articles, Ali both provides a large, clear window and through the retelling of her story acts as our guide.
The culture is so foreign, with just a few geographic names and historical events recognizable, that it has a ring of science fiction. (Words such as Osman, Darod, jilbab, ma’alim are common). The events are very human and very alarming, though, and it is Ali’s lack of anger, regret or moralizing that allows - compels - readers to read on.
As the narrative progresses, it becomes clear that Ali is an exceptional girl and woman, and it is very clear that her departure from her culture is also an exception. In her culture, her upbringing and life are the rule, and there is no choice for almost any female in a similar circumstance. Ali’s adult life in the West is a stark contrast, but through her fresh eyes she provides interesting insights that make us question our own belief systems and societal structure. She notes the parallels between the clan cultures of her youth and the cliques of her Dutch university, and later the relative morals her Dutch parliament colleagues as they wrestle with actions (specifically Ali’s expulsion from the country) necessary to maintain power. Earlier, Ali had noted the life and death trade-offs in refugee camps, and that morals were irrelevant when basic needs couldn’t be met.
Many autobiographies are written to celebrate, frame or even justify successes or actions later in the author’s life. Ali’s is riveting and thought provoking from start to finish, and is recommended reading for all. An exceptional and important work.
January 24, 2013
Unconventional insight. Worth reading especially if you are among the increasing number of hard asset/physical gold doomsayers,
Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews