Killer tornadoes. Violent tropical storms. Devastating temperatures. Are these just the prelude to an unprecedented environmental disaster in our near future? Two of America's leading investigators of unexplained phenomena -- Art Bell, the top-rated late-night radio talk-show host, and Whitley Strieber, No. 1 New York Times bestselling author of Communion and the legendary Nature's End -- have made a shocking discovery based on years of research with top scientists and archaeologists from around the world. Now, they reveal what powerful interests are trying to keep rapid changes in the atmosphere caused by greenhouse gases have set humanity on an incredibly dangerous course toward a catastrophic change in climate in the immediate future. It will begin with a massive, unprecedented storm that will devastate the Northern Hemisphere. This will be followed by floods unlike anything ever seen before -- or perhaps a new Ice Age. They also unearth evidence that this has happened in the past -- in fact, that it has occurred regularly throughout geologic history, but so infrequently that our only record of the last such storm is contained in ancient myths and flood legends. From El Niño to the African droughts, to the shrinking of the polar ice caps, Bell and Strieber identify the warning signs to those willing to see. They point out that the Earth's regulatory system is like a rubber you can stretch it just so far before it snaps back -- with a vengeance. Since 1995, each successive year has set new records for violent weather. In 1999 a major climatological study predicted that the Earth will soon be warmer than it has been in millions of years. Bell and Strieber tell us why they believe a rebound is imminent -- a rapid and violent cooling that will cover the Northern Hemisphere in a sheath of choking ice and snow. But it's not too late to reverse our destiny. No mere harbinger of an inevitable doomsday, The Coming Global Superstorm is instead a spirited call to action that offers a wealth of viable solutions to this mammoth challenge to humankind. Through a careful and impressively researched dissection of the myths and legends of ancient cultures and an insightful examination of the best of modern environmental science, Bell and Strieber guide us on an intellectual journey as dark as the murky origins of man and as bright as the promise of an interstellar future.
This book predicted a couple of years ago that the current (2019) arctic vortex that is striking the northern part of the USA would occur. Thankfully it hasn't been as bad as the book predicted...yet!
One day, a long, long time ago in Siberia, mammoths were peacefully munching on springtime buttercups when a displaced arctic vortex rendered them flash frozen. When they were recovered intact during the last century the buttercups they had been chewing on were still in their mouths. Does the displaced arctic vortex theory explain what happened to them?
The movie "The Day After Tomorrow" was based on this book but the book goes into a lot of detail explaining just what causes an arctic vortex as well as predicts what the future holds for the northern USA if the vortexes continue. The north could soon be under many feet of ice and snow and will no longer be inhabitable. Let's hope this doesn't happen! If it does continue, caravans of USA citizens will soon be marching to Central America to live.
Got this one yesterday at the town transfer station. Pretty ... darned ... scary if you ask me. I have no particular scientific bona fides to bring to bear on reading this stuff. I'm just a reasonably intelligent, awake, aware(since the 70's) and moderately well-informed concerned citizen who's all in on the Global Climate Crisis and other man-caused environmental disasters. I began wondering many years ago If I'd still be alive(I'm 74 as of 5/2021) when the bad stuff REALLY started to hit the fan. I'm not looking forward to it, that's for sure.
As I read this I remembered a decent post-ap novel by Roger Zelazny - "Damnation Alley" - which offers some pretty crazy post-nuclear weather changes that make living on much of the earth impossible. This reminds me of that book. Both have been movie-ized, but I haven't seen either one.
The book continues to alternate between science-y looking/reading stuff and the fictional unfolding of the civilization-threatening super-storm. One of my first reactions is that I need to move to Tucson, a notion confirmed by last night's reading. So ... I'll be there along with how many million refugees from up north? Not a pretty thought. Is it a good idea to try to stay alive no matter WHAT the circumstances?
- BTW, there was a movie of this - "The Day After Tomorrow"(2004) - that featured a creaky plot, but with impressive special effects ... from what I've read.
The two-trains-running theme continued last night as I read more of the horror/fiction/ speculation that the current human civilization, along with many animal species MIGHT end upon the breaking of this super-storm caused by global warming. Pretty ... darned ... scary.
After the rather unsettling first 3/4 of this book, the authors are now going to tell me what positive steps can or should be taken to make things turn out better that the huge disaster they've described. Frankly, I just don't see the human race as being capable of anywhere near enough cooperative action and change is/will be required to turn things around climate-wise. Too much denial-ism out there. One reason to be old = I may well be gone before the bleep REALLY hits the fan. I live in Maine and every summer(including this one) just keeps getting hotter. According to what the gents who wrote this book say, this will be leading to a drastic and rapid onset of the next ice age. How ironic ...
After scaring the crap out of the reader the authors begin to set forth some reasons for optimism. I assume some more "what-can-we-do's" will be forth coming. However ... this book was written twenty years ago, and in my opinion there isn't so much reason for optimism as the authors may claim. In fact, they seem a bit Polyanna-ish(IMHO) in their faith in human technological innovation and problem solving. THE BIG PROBLEM is more a matter of culture and politics(in this country at least.) 16 years after this book the most relevant country on earth viv-a-vis climate change elected a science denier who claimed that global warming was a Chinese hoax. We have met the enemy boys, and he is us! I am NOT optimistic, but we'll see.
Well ... that's it for getting the bleep scared out of me. If I knew with more certainty that this was all good, valid science this book would be a 4-5* must-read. But ... who knows for sure? Two days ago here in Midcoast Maine it was a sunny 95 degrees and humid. Literally two days later it's about 60 degrees and very overcast with rain here and there. Seems a bit ... abrupt to me, and therefore, a bit unsettling to in light of having read this book.
This is a very strange book. You think, from the title, that it will be about global warming, climate change, and the disasters that are supposed to proceed from that. And it is. But it approaches the problem from a very strange angle.
First off, there is a fictional story intermingled with the (supposedly) non-fiction elements of the book. This is not that unusual for a book of this type, and the fictional story is actually pretty good and one of the more enjoyable aspects of the book. It shows what might be expected to happen in a worst case scenario if the weather should turn suddenly without warning.
But then they go off on some wild theorizing about how these climate changes have happened before in cycles throughout the years, and how they may have destroyed technically advanced civilizations in the past, and how these civilizations may have left us warnings that it would happen again. That climate changes have happened before appears to be true (think ice ages). Their suggestions of previous technically advanced civilizations, however, hinges on the presence of half a dozen ancient artifacts – the Sphinx is the only one I have ever heard of before – which nobody can figure out how they were made with the technology that was supposed to have existed at the time. I fully expected them to trot out a ‘Chariots of the Gods’ type hypothesis. And their suggestion of the method by which these previous civilizations might have tried to warn us of something was an even more confusing reference to the signs of the zodiac. If this were a very representative sample of the writing on global warming, you could see how those who want to avoid doing anything about it can find cause to dismiss the whole idea as nonsense.
Once these two talk-show hosts get this tabloid-journalism impulse out of their system though, they get a little more realistic, giving more convincing statistics on global warming and the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Apparently, when this book was written, the most recent data was from about 1999, and I was surprised how much of this melting had taken place already by then. I thought the more noticeable melting hadn’t occurred until more recently.
They also explain how the land bridge between North and South America has affected the ocean currents and how these, in turn, have, over the years, affected the rise and fall of ice ages. This is the first I had heard of there having once been a time (not counting when North and South America were part of a larger landmass) when the land bridge between them didn’t exist. But anyway. For those who don’t want to feel responsible for climate change, they insist that it would happen anyway in spite of human actions. But they also seem to agree with the prevailing scientific wisdom that human actions have made it worse and brought the probable looming catastrophe closer. They suggest things we might do to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thus delay the catastrophe until we can take measures to prevent it, or at least reduce the impact. They note that, despite all the refusal to believe in global warming, some reduction in new greenhouse gas emissions had already occurred by 1999.
Late in the book, they admit that nobody knows if a superstorm of the type they describe in the fictional scenario ever actually occurs. I sure hope not. The real storms we have already had have been bad enough.
Maybe better than 1--1.5, call it. I grabbed it at the library on a whim (it was next to a book I wanted to read). I expected nothing and got that. It's a bad Strieber sci-fi disaster novelette (very expositional) interspersed with some laughable stuff written by Bell or his ghostwriter. It's admirable that Bell understands there is global warming and it will affect weather, so .5 star for that.
But so much else he says is just Crazytown-crazy. He says he's right about the frequency of life in the universe and Sagan was wrong (which may be--they're both guessing), but the fact that anybody out there would trust the guess of a radio talk-show yammerer over a PhD in the field who taught at Harvard and Cornell is one of the realities that makes me hope for human extinction. (And not fear my own death. When I'm dead, I won't have to think about people that stupid actually interbreeding.) Oh and the Sphnix couldn't have been built by the Egyptians but some magical hidden civilization that blahblahblah. That sort of thing pops up in every chapter. And he misunderstands evolution, saying that every time there's a mass extinction, the species that come after are "better" and "smarter" which of course is hogwash. So by the time he says a few right things about weather, he's totally destroyed his own phronesis
Good but as others had said, quite repetitive. Rather than saying there will be a warming effect that causes flooding, the authors theorize the collapse of the North Atlantic current which then may lead to the next ice age.
As this book was not written by scientists, and written 25 years ago, it is unclear how much was speculation or actually scientific ideas. I'd like to read a more current book on climate change written within the past 5 years.
This book combines both scientific theory on dramatic climate change with a fictional story of what happens when the climate does change. As ocean waters temperature continues to climb it triggers mother nature to cool things off with a second ice age. The movie 'Day After Tomorrow' is loosely based on this.
I really enjoyed this book. I have alwAys enjoyed Whitley's writing. I like how they presented factual info alternating w fictional interpretation. MaDe it seem all that much more real.
The every year a new maximum temperature record will be set and the obvious and proven receding ice in the world underline the natural drama that is called global warming everywhere. Paradox is that global warming sooner or later lead to a new ice age is because nature will balance at some point. One way of such a balance would be by means of a global super storm that exceeds all unprecedented severe weather scenarios far. Notes that such storms have so far plagued the earth at regular intervals, there is, or at least suspected. Given the increasing natural disasters also raises the question of how far we are from the nearest distance?
Nobody would openly against the global human genuine use or for animal testing or against environmental protection. There are issues that affect all inhabitants of this planet, and accordingly they are also important for the survival of our species. But active advocate previously with protests or examples, there is hardly anyone, at least a tiny proportion of the population. That if only because it is usually associated with effort; either financially or time. That's why all our people from the environmental protection and the conservation of nature on the one hand talk about, buy itself one of the increasingly popular SUVs or throw garbage, cigarette butts and chewing gum on the street, rather than in the five yards standing trash. People are just, and showed the story well, lazy and comfortable.
2007 Nobel Prize winner Al Gore with his Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth (based on lectures that he already for years around the globe keeps) on the controversial and highly topical issue of our nature draws attention, seems almost nine years later at most, the industry fell on environmental protection to have found. So you can buy energy-saving bulbs, eco-friendly packaging and resource-saving cars, which cost all of them noticeably more than the environmental pestilential counterpart anywhere. Which means even the average citizen here seems short-sighted and those who are responsible for the greenhouse gases and global warming, now enrich themselves in the attempts to get to grips with the dilemma.
The two authors Bell and Strieber here define from the outset what her story will result, but will explain the different backgrounds throughout the novel, which must also prevail, so there could be a super storm. While they may its existence, or the fact that this is a cyclical phenomenon, based only circumstantial, but they establish their guesses to be as clever and extravagant that one is trapped as readers quickly in the frightening scenario. As this is difficult to prove merely to mix the decision of the authors, fiction and non-narrative. Thus, the subject-related backgrounds and statements alternate with italicized chapters in which is shown from fictional perspective how we humans could experience such a super storm. Here also some characters are introduced by which different situations are shown. This balancing act has unfortunately succeeded only to a limited extent, mainly because you feel as a reader as voyeuristic as affected and sometimes even find fun at the chaotic descriptions and the apocalyptic conditions. The authors have chosen the path Crichton, the scenario to tell only a fictional novel, and accommodate all their technical information so that the book would have probably had a greater success. Merely by way of novel suffers The Coming Global Superstorm by the fact that many "facts" turn out purely speculative, although there are hints and clues, but they are only supported in each case by one or two other authors. Without a doubt, there is now in the professional world agrees that a melting of polar ice caps leading to a lower salinity of the sea water and this could eventually disrupt the sensitive water currents. If the Gulf Stream dry, in fact, would be the world (and especially in the northern hemisphere) before a weather chaos, as it has not seen the world. However, whether the mythical allusions, artifacts found and the fact that there are "notes" on an ancient civilization, from up on their monuments no traces are left, "evidence" is enough to determine, it must be such a civilization given have and it was wiped out by a super storm is another matter. This sounds both to fantastic and can not really substantiate. Just because archaeologists, some monuments of world history can not explain, a requirement imposed by the authors hypothesis has far true as alone valid.
As also difficult, it proves that the authors make in their chapters repeatedly hints of upcoming topics of the book, which, although explained later, but already are known to encourage the reader to scroll. The surprisingly recalls the technique of certain documentation programs on television, which is said just before the commercial break, what happens next in a few minutes. Bell and Strieber this technique very often used, it is all the more significant, the fast reading the novel. Otherwise can The Coming Global Superstorm certainly entertain and captivate, especially the amateur researchers have collected some questions and assumptions that are many years from a variety of sources known and have not been answered to date. Whether it is the fact that the Sphinx to have originated at a time that is significantly ahead of time of the Pharaohs, or that the Mayas have not created their cultural sites according to the latest findings only used; by whom the Maya cities originate, is so far unsettled. The geological sequences and climatological relationships are put forward in response and in particular of course, but lacks the book in this regard unfortunately one thing: the ability to convince an image. Had the maker provided the book with maps of the described eras, or interactions of the ocean currents, wind movements illustrates pictorially, had their warning and a strike by their success. Not to mention illustrations of how the world or famous cities would look for such a super storm. Although a fifteen meter high snow walls reads very impressively clear to see, how little would then actually still remain of the houses of a big city, but is a different experience.
There is nothing to fault at The Coming Global Superstorm, the book reads very fast, yet remains easy to understand even for beginners. Some sections seem, however, as if the authors they revised several times and not left the sentence structure intact. Basically, you can The Coming Global Superstorm here but not blame. What remains is an interesting and enthralling account of a natural disaster, which is not far-fetched. How likely it is, however, remains to be seen. Given natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina, the US state of Louisiana and New Orleans so devastated in just one week in August 2005 that the region will still take decades to recover, but you can not argue that the weather today so would be like 50 years ago. This proved shockingly mild winter and cold at the same time an unprecedented scale. In this respect, is the message of storm warning, actively engage not to make the situation worse perfectly legitimate, even if the authors can be doubted the backgrounds and the presumptions.
The weather, as they say, is always good for a conversation. And it is beyond our control or not? While we can not control the weather itself, but we can influence it consciously and unconsciously in a way. Interestingly, the authors Art Bell and Whitley Strieber point out that there could have been such a phenomenon as a super storm earlier, long before human intervention. But we are accelerating our environmental pollution and by means of global warming, the factors that could lead to a new super storm and to an extent that we could not stay enough time to prepare us, let alone to protect us. It is a frightening scenario that designing the two authors in storm warning and I was captivated and fascinated by the simple and understandable explanations that provide both amateur meteorologists for relationships and backgrounds of such a storm. The fact that they are dedicated to cultures and artifacts that still riddles of science that makes entertaining reading more than interesting and instructive. But fell in my opinion out to those chapters that show the progress of a global super storm and allow the reader to share the excitement with some figures. This seems the topic either not appropriate or just not quite worked out would have it dealt with in two separate accounts, it probably would have acted differently, so although it seems voyeuristic. The novel remains and important and provability of the allegations disregarded necessary to shake people and to move to an active environmental protection. The grounds that an alone could not change anything, this is just an excuse not to engage themselves; and an admission of their own inability.
I was thoroughly disappointed by this book, having seen the film The Day After Tomorrow which is based on this book, I had quite high expectations. In the very least I excepted something a bit more scientific than I got. Bell and Strieber have drowned out the real science behind global climate change with various references to astrology and messages hidden by past civilisations of which there is now either no or very little trace of. They also forget to actually address the arguements used by climate skeptics and merely ignore any evidence that doesn't fit with their theory. Not only that, by the end of the book they actually blame the scientific community for the lack of cohesive action and the lack of absolute certainty in the modelling used in climate change science. Admittedly it would be great if scientific research into weather and climate was more accurate but the funding and political will is simply not there to provide the all the resources such an immense subject needs. This is not the fault of science but of big business, politicians and even society as a whole, you can't expect spectacular results on a shoe-string budget. The fictional story is interesting and well thought out but I didn't like the switching back and fore between fact and fiction. It seems that Bell and Strieber couldn't decide whether to write something useful and informative to the general public or a fictional story based on the what ifs of climate science. Overall a confusing, unscientific book that can only damage and confuse the climate change message.
Whitley Streiber wrote an excellent '80s nove, Nature's End, about climate change. This...this is terrible. Some science mixed with bad fictional interludes, pseudoscientific nonsense about ancient structures that real archeologists can explain without resorting to hand-waving about mystical forces and aliens, and so forth and so on. The usual Art Bell garbage.
This is not at all what I expected and this way of writing about climate change does more harm than good. It's a mixture of pseudo-science, anthrolopogical fantasy, mish-mash of religions and superstitions and a fictional piece which looks like bad journalism with no dates on it, until you realise that even though it's written in past tense (and I was like "when did this happen in Sydney, because not in my lifetime?") it's a speculation set in their imagined future.
The cover should have tipped me off, it calls Art Bell and Whitley Strieber "two of America's leading investigators of unexplained phonomena" ie they are conspiracy theorists- but a lot of this book is just so sloppy on the research as to be really lazy and dull.
The sad fact is that climate change IS real, there is ACTUAL evidence and a real crisis that must be faced to be survived but this sort of made up testerical stuff adds nothing but confusion and does reputational damage to people calling for real change. I cry for anyone whose knowledge of science is either small enough to believe this book or to conflate it with REAL conversations about climate change.
Usually even books I don;t like go into little free libraries but this one I think I will compost. It can do most good in the worm-farm I do believe!
This was about as good as it was when I read it 20 years ago: intriguing, thought producing, predictive, and absoluting anger inducing toward human overfocus on economics and progress of the single entity over the whole. Day After Tomorrow was probably my reason for picking this up, but the every third chapter way this book tells a version of the story of a storm without some of those specific characters might be better. It probably is the best part of this book. The question remains though, if the storm hasn't happened yet, does it mean this book was wrong? It feels not, it has just happened differently.
The basis for the film 'The Day After Tomorrow' with Dennis Quaid, this book posits the long-term and short-term impacts of climate change by looking at past sudden global climatic catastrophes. While the research and extrapolation into the future is sound in places, the reliance on scientists who have been persecuted for their beliefs, as well as the discussion of lost, ancient civilizations with scientific powers beyond our own rather weakens the argument. Some of the same claims (ancient aliens, etc.) are still seen floating around on the Internet (and Netflix specials).
Wow... This book explains WHY our planet is in danger & what the future MAY hold. If only the politicians would LISTEN & ACT. At least make some kind of plans Now instead of debating it all. Wake up...
Wanted to read this because I heard The Day After Tomorrow was loosely based on it. Turns out that's like 25% of the book and the rest is nonsense. I quit at the "mysterious ancient unknown civilization built the Sphinx" part.
This book is climate change with a vengeance, so to speak. Not at all sure of the science behind this particular forecast, but it is fascinating reading.
How long does an alarm bell have to ring before someone responds to it?
The Coming Global Superstorm was nearly eight years old when I first encountered it in 2007. Revisiting it now, it’s a few months shy of a quarter century since its original publication. In that time, the conversation about climate change and its impact has roared on with a ferocity matched only by its increasing impact. Not to mention that, in the meantime, the book helped inspire perhaps the topic’s most high-profile work of popular culture: the 2004 film The Day After Tomorrow.
Indeed, one strand of the book directly influenced the film. In-between non-fiction chapters, the book presents the scenario as it would take place in the near future as climatologists, meteorologists, governments, and eventually ordinary people begin to realize that the superstorm has arrived. Scenes from these segments worked their way into the film’s plot and set pieces, from hailstorms and tornadoes in unlikely places to survivors huddling inside the New York Public Library. The characters in the film played by Dennis Quaid and the late Ian Holm have forebears here, too, being in quite similar situations and sharing their eventual fates. It’s perhaps also unsurprising that one of this book’s co-authors, Whitley Strieber, also penned the (quite different) novelization of the eventually made film.
Not that inspiring the film is all The Coming Global Superstorm should be remembered for doing. Though written by two non-climatologists (Strieber and the late radio show Art Bell), the book makes a compelling case for the possibility of a comparatively sudden climate catastrophe taking place. One with more build-up in terms of time that what the film (no doubt for dramatic reasons) presented but with sufficient realization to save millions of lives and potentially endanger the continuity of current civilization. The evidence for that is clear from flash-frozen woolly mammoths with undigested food in their stomachs (another detail that briefly made its way into the film) and information found in core samples taken from around the world. That such events have happened was clear in 1999, as was that human beings were pushing things increasingly to the brink. Yet as the closing non-fiction chapters offers, things are not without hope with Bell and Strieber writing words that felt all the more familiar after reading Romm and Wallace-Wells in recent months.
Controversially, Bell and Strieber tie in such catastrophes to the potential destruction of a previous advanced human civilization lost to history. An idea that, at the time the book was written, was being pursued by the likes of Graham Hancock and John Anthony West. It’s a compelling even prescient idea (as I’ll admit having read a number of Handcock’s books) but the lack of a more obvious smoking gun for an idea presented so early in the text has made it easy to dismiss the more grounded ideas presented elsewhere in the book. Ideas that have, with polar vortex’s bring ever-harsher winters and papers in 2015 and 2023 that have shown that the very changes in the Gulf Stream discussed in the book (and the film it spawned) could trigger a Little Ice Age, not lost their value.
All of which, for its flaws, could leave The Coming Global Superstorm still very much a possibility of the shape of things to come.
Alright! Alright! First off I know that this book is most likely a piece of trash and belongs in that special school of science fiction to which authors like Michael Criton (whom I loathe) belong. Nonetheless, the book does a good job at laying out the case and actually is not outrageously sensationalistic. What is fact is stated as fact and with only a few exception what is speculative is presented honestly as such.
I would also like to point out that this is an interesting gateway book into progressively more out there new age ramblings. I learned a fair share about astrology. One of the main premises of the book is that an ice age is likely coming due to a shut off of the Gulf Stream. Yes, this is the same theory that gave birth to, "the day after tomorrow", however this book has the special added twist of injecting ancient wisdom and climate cycles being tied to the zodiac. According to Bell an ice age if it occurs will coincide with the age of Aquarius. We are currently under the age of Pisces which is coming to an end (which Bell also indirectly indicates will coincide with the demise of 'the christian era').
Do I buy most of this? Not really, but that's not what is important.
I've read this book more than once, and decided to re-read it given the amazing weather patterns we've been seeing over the past two years. It gave me a scare previously, more so this time around. Neither author is a climatologist, and there are some far-fetched theories and some poorly written fictional scenarios to spice up the nonfiction. It is an interesting read insofar as it paints a grim scenario of increasing global warmth and weather instability, which, if not taken with an entire shaker of salt, could put one into panic mode. It was written back in 2000, since which time there have been a number of superstorms, and with it an unstable polar vortex. Will the next ice age happen in our lifetime? I'm not sure. Give it a shot if you're interested in the climate change and weird weather we've been experiencing. This response to the book and subsequent movie by climatologists is reassuring: http://www.wunderground.com/resources...
I was very entertained by the book. Much of it reads like a Sci-Fi novel, but there is enough real science included to make it of interest to people like me who have a background in the environmental sciences. The authors are self-admitted amateurs in the field of climate science, but present a number of plausible ideas that are worth thinking about. There is some scientific evidence that a global superstorm, or certainly something similar has occurred in the past and will very likely occur again. As for some of the other speculation included in the book, you'll have to judge for yourselves what is credible and what is not. Regardless, the book is well written and entertaining, even if you're not a serious student of environmental issues. It just shouldn't viewed as a substitute for that type of serious inquiry.
I read this years ago in the 90s when it came out. Then the movie based on the book came out. Someone asked me if id seen the movie. Without seeing the film, I described it in detail minus the bad Hollywood story. I recently dug it up and re-read it. It's science speculation with little to no citations and honestly a much more boring read than I recall from my high school days. Citations (aside from the couple of books name dropped in it) and footnotes would have been great. Not so interesting when I read it again--and the science behind the speculation could have been brought out more and cited. It wasn't and definitely hurts the final product. Pop-culture with kernels of truth, science, and potentially plausible outcomes.