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The Age of Deleveraging
Top economist Gary Shilling shows you how to prosper in the slow-growing and deflationary times that lie ahead While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author Gary Shilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that the global economy is going through a long period of de-leveraging and weak growth, which makes deflation far more likely and a far greater threat to investors than inflation. Shilling explains in clear language and compelling logic why the world economy will struggle for several more years and what investors can do to protect and grow their wealth in the difficult times ahead. The investment strategies that worked for last 25 years will not work in the next 10 years. Shilling advises readers to avoid broad exposure to stocks, real estate, and commodities and to focus on high-quality bonds, high-dividend stocks, and consumer staple and food stocks.
Written by one of today's best forecasters of economic trends-twice voted by Institutional Investor as Wall Street's top economist Clearly explains what to invest in, what to avoid, and how to cope with a deflationary, slow-growth economy Demonstrates how Shilling has been consistently right about major economic trends since he began forecasting in the early 1980s Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this timely guide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to be prepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation-not inflation-and what you can do to prosper in the difficult times ahead.
Written by one of today's best forecasters of economic trends-twice voted by Institutional Investor as Wall Street's top economist Clearly explains what to invest in, what to avoid, and how to cope with a deflationary, slow-growth economy Demonstrates how Shilling has been consistently right about major economic trends since he began forecasting in the early 1980s Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this timely guide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to be prepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation-not inflation-and what you can do to prosper in the difficult times ahead.
544 pages, Kindle Edition
First published October 12, 2010
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Displaying 1 - 14 of 14 reviews
December 29, 2014
In my home town of fremont, Ohio, on the same block as my parent house my parents owned for 69 years, a number of mansions were built in the Roaring Twenties When I was growing up after WW2, they had been split up into apartments, occupied by several of my grade school teachers and the pricinple.
November 4, 2024
Sometimes it's fun to read some older books about economics/investing that didn't really worked out. It makes one think that what the author writes makes sense, sounds logical, but here we are a decade later and it still didn't happen. For me it only proves that one can anticipate certain moves but this is useless unless you figure out what dominoes need to fall to make that move actually get in motion.
Other then the missed foretelling i think that Shilling has written a good book, it was smart and intelligent but all that still lies somewhere in the future (maybe?)
Other then the missed foretelling i think that Shilling has written a good book, it was smart and intelligent but all that still lies somewhere in the future (maybe?)
November 1, 2017
The book was interesting to read 7 years after initial publication. That time revealed which predictions he got right, and which he got wrong - e.g. deflation, spending/savings, and equities. There was long-winded detail on his thinking, which I actually found helpful. Also, the author gave little indication of any humility he may (or may not) possess.
July 31, 2012
This book is alright, if you don't mind the oft self-gloating of the author, of how great his insight is (even if the call is seven years too early). It's most certainly true that, in the case of the most recent property and financial crises, too many idiots on Wall St and the analysts rank were totally ignorant about what's going on, blinded by nothing other than pure greed, aided and abetted by lax oversight and enforcement from regulators like Greenspan, cheered on by everyone with their hands in the pot, including rating agencies, politicians (with much prodding from lobbyists and interest groups), and borrowers themselves.
But as the author has rightly admitted himself, timing is everything. For those who resent the almost high-handed criticisms by contrarians like this author during the mass euphoria during the boom times, the easiest (and cheapest) shot could be that, when you cry foul enough times and often enough, sooner or later the foul would happen.
Perhaps, that makes the amazingly timely bet on the subprime markets by those like John Paulson, sound almost too good to be true, though in the derivative markets when it's a zero-sum game, one's gain is some sucker's loss. For the billions that Paulson made in the timely subprime bets using instruments like CDS, ultimately taxpayers paid for it collectively (through bailouts of too-big-to-fails like AIG).
You can be sure of one thing though, that lessons (however painful they are) will not be learnt in stupid times like now, when everyone's attention span is short, and politician's time span even shorter (with focus only on the next election). It's in no one's interest to think strategic or long term. And THAT is the saddest part.
But as the author has rightly admitted himself, timing is everything. For those who resent the almost high-handed criticisms by contrarians like this author during the mass euphoria during the boom times, the easiest (and cheapest) shot could be that, when you cry foul enough times and often enough, sooner or later the foul would happen.
Perhaps, that makes the amazingly timely bet on the subprime markets by those like John Paulson, sound almost too good to be true, though in the derivative markets when it's a zero-sum game, one's gain is some sucker's loss. For the billions that Paulson made in the timely subprime bets using instruments like CDS, ultimately taxpayers paid for it collectively (through bailouts of too-big-to-fails like AIG).
You can be sure of one thing though, that lessons (however painful they are) will not be learnt in stupid times like now, when everyone's attention span is short, and politician's time span even shorter (with focus only on the next election). It's in no one's interest to think strategic or long term. And THAT is the saddest part.
April 4, 2015
Dr. Shilling has been calling for deflation to hit the US economy for some time, and we are now starting to see some signs of it. Published in 2011, he makes the case for at least a decade of slow growth and mild deflation, as our over-leveraged society unwinds its debts (at the consumer, corporate, and governmental levels). Not a particularly uplifting read, as even mild deflation will tend to suppress the returns of most asset classes. One could get 95% of the value of this book by simply reading the last 2 chapters (12 Investments to Avoid, and 10 Investments to Buy), thereby saving yourself about 400 pages of Dr. Shilling recounting all the great calls he has made in his career. There's no doubt that he is extremely intelligent, but this book is about 5x as long as it needs to be, and his considerable ego shines through on every page. Only true economics geeks will make the effort to plow all the way through this one. That said, there are insights to be gained - if one believes in his deflation thesis.
June 11, 2014
Loads of really great info in this book, but it is very sporadically organized (at least to me), and incredibly repetetive. I also felt like the first half of the book or more was talking about 'good calls' that Shilling has made in the past, kind of tooting his own horn. At least it was done in a way that was educational about the past economic circumstances under which these 'good calls' were made, but it still felt like half the book tooting your own horn was a little much.
Like I said, lots of good nuggets of economic wisdom, but not well organized, incredibly repetetive, and sometimes hard to pull out the key takeaways amongst all the other data. Probably not my most recommended read in this space.
Like I said, lots of good nuggets of economic wisdom, but not well organized, incredibly repetetive, and sometimes hard to pull out the key takeaways amongst all the other data. Probably not my most recommended read in this space.
November 28, 2012
I like Gary Shilling but this book didn't cut it for me. If he spent a little less time reviewing all his past successful forecasts the book would be half the size. He has made some good calls but most of them were 20 years ago so it did leave me somewhat wary. I can't help but feel his current commentary is locked in to his forecast seeking validation rather being truly observant of current realities. Overall just too much self congratulation in this one.
December 27, 2012
It's not bragging if you actually did it. He does spend a lot of time on his record and past calls but that's understandable as he is almost always the voice alone in the wilderness. And he has almost always been proven right.
He has the courage to make calls and own the results. One of the most accurate forecasters of the last 30+ years.
He has the courage to make calls and own the results. One of the most accurate forecasters of the last 30+ years.
February 3, 2013
Tried to read this book. Usually I can plow through anything even if I'm mildly interested it and the subject matter is boring. Not this one. This blow hard just recounts all the predictions he's made over his career ...reads more like a "told you so" or a validation of his views over time. I got nothing out of it.
November 3, 2011
very nice read not too hard to understand account of the current situation and future. PHD authour with almost 50 yrs of business experience has laid out a case for deflation would be very wise to take it seriously
February 4, 2012
Some interesting content once you get past the arrogant first person writing style.
November 22, 2012
Interesting predictions but could have been a third as long if he hadn't spent so much of the book bragging about how right he has been in the past.
February 21, 2014
Academic in nature but based on experience. Excellent read.
August 11, 2016
A bit tedious to read, but he really knows his stuff, and he has a good track record.
Displaying 1 - 14 of 14 reviews