It is an interesting test for books on public policy to read them many years after their publication. Peter Peterson wrote Running on Empty in 2004, outlining the dire consequences of the unfunded commitments made in both Social Secuity and the Medicare programs. With the Baby Boomers set to retire ( from a 2004 perspective) and the declining birth rate, the impact on the federal budget was forecast to be cataclysmic.
Well here we are fourteen years later, and the preoccupation with US budget deficits and the ongoing battles to protect (Republican) tax cuts and (Democratic) social entitlements continues. The budget process in Congress remains chaotic, with threats of government shutdowns often on the horizon. So the essential diagnosis put forward by Peterson remains pertinent: the budget process is fundamentally flawed, and the political class remains in denial about the long-range consequences of deficit spending, overseas borrowing, and unfunded social programs.
By the same token, the Apocalypse has not arrived, at least not yet. Many people were burnt by the 2008 economic crisis and its impact on, amongst other things, retirement funds and individual savings. But Congress continues to muddle through, despite Peterson’s dire warnings. But he makes a compelling case that the Day of Reckoning will arrive one day.
One final remark which illustrates the hazards of forecasting: Peterson writes, “So far, the world has managed to avoid an all-out 1930s-style trade war. But with the rhetoric of “fair trade” and “America first” again on the rise, especially among Democratic politicians, many of the wiser heads are holding their breath.” Good prognosis, but he targeted the wrong party to ride the MAGA message!