Deterrence and First-Strike Stability in Space: A Preliminary Assessment

by Forrest E. Morgan

Space stability appears to be eroding as a growing number of states acquire the ability to degrade or destroy U.S. space assets. The United States needs a coordinated national space deterrence strategy designed to operate on both sides of a potential adversary1s cost-benefit decision calculus. Future research will determine the most effective and affordable mix of strategies, policies, and systems for strengthening space deterrence.

80 pages, Paperback

First published May 3, 2010

About the author

Forrest E. Morgan, Ph.D., is a senior lecturer at the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology (CMIST), Carnegie Mellon University. Morgan served 27 years in the U.S. Air Force then worked 16 years at the RAND Corporation doing strategy and doctrine research for national defense clients. He has authored and coauthored numerous books and research papers. While doing research in military applications of artificial intelligence at RAND, he was inspired to write his second novel, The Synthetic Woman.

Morgan practiced Asian martial arts for 30 years and taught them much of that time. His 1992 book, Living the Martial Way, sold over 125,000 copies and has been described as a classic in martial arts philosophy. His first novel, Waking the Snow
Leopard, is available in soft cover, Kindle, and audiobook.

Reviews

[Nate Huston · Rating 2 out of 5]

The book does a good job setting the stage for the space deterrence discussion, but little else. Outside of the important observation that deterrence in space must both raise costs for the adversary (in terms of US retaliation - perhaps even conventially) and reduce the benefits thereof (be prepared to operate without and therefore reduce the value of impacting space capabilities and assets), there's not a whole lot of excitement. While Morgan rightly points out that space deterrence is tough, most of the monograph is a call for further discussion and research. How, exactly, the US can go about reducing dependence while simultaneously bolstering the credibility of a retalitory attack is barely explored. As such, the reader is left mostly with a "Hey - Somebody probably ought to figure this stuff out" vibe. That said, it's a valuable primer for a deterrence novice interested in the concept as it applies to space.