Denver detective Win Bear, on the trail of a murderer, discovers much more than a killer. He accidentally stumbles upon the probability broach, a portal to a myriad of worlds--some wildly different from, others disconcertingly similar to our own. Win finds himself transported to an alternate Earth where Congress is in Colorado, everyone carries a gun, there are gorillas in the Senate, and public services are controlled by private businesses.
L. Neil Smith was a Libertarian science fiction author and gun rights activist.Smith was born in Denver, Colorado.
Smith began publishing science fiction with “Grimm’s Law” for Stellar 5 (1980). He wrote 31 books, including 29 novels, and a number of essays and short stories. In 2016, Smith received the Special Prometheus Award for Lifetime Achievement for his contributions to libertarian science fiction.
He was editor of LEVER ACTION BBS [now defunct], founder and International Coordinator of the Libertarian Second Amendment Caucus, Secretary and Legislative Director of the Weld County Fish & Wildlife Association and an NRA Life Member.
Smith passed away on August 27, 2021 in Fort Collins, Colorado at age 75 after a lengthy battle with heart and kidney disease. Smith is survived by daughter Rylla Smith and wife Cathy Smith.
I was twelve when I first read this novel. It was 1980. I missed the fact that Smith had written a Liberterian tract disguised as a science-fiction novel. I did understand that he was very pro-second amendment. I remember being concerned that 1987 was going to be pretty rough (when the novel is set) and ,finally, I really enjoyed the book. Well that was 1980 and I was twelve. I read it again when I was fourteen. That time I around I was aware of a definite political/sociological tract running throughout the story, but I just figured it was set on an alternate Earth so it was no big deal. Of course things were going to be different. Once again I failed to understand that the author had a political axe to grind.
Okay. So I read this book (again) a couple years ago. Now I agree with some aspects of the Liberterian philosophy, but I'm not a true believer. There are problems with any belief system. I look at them as being a tool box. You take what works out of them. The Probability Broach is pure propaganda and nothing more. It's entertaining, but Smith has set up a Utopia and Utopias do not work in the real world.
Smith wrote this book in the seventies when he was in his late twenties. The twenties are an odd time in a person's life. You are now an adult, but you haven't seasoned yet. There is still aspects of the single minded teenager hanging around during your twenties. As a result sometimes ideas and attitudes are more simplistic. It isn't until later that we get more cycnial and/or realistic about things. The Probability Broach was his first novel and Smith has become a better writer. He still pushes the Liberterian line pretty hard, but he's gotten more subtle about it. In TPB he's hitting the reader over the head with a hammer. The book is rather clumsy in that respect. But what it lacks in sophistication it does make up for with sheer exuberance. And it's this enthusiasm and go for broke attitude that earns it three stars. Sometimes youth and energy can cover other shortcomings.
Despite being a propaganda piece it's fun. So three stars it is.
I've read so many alt-history books that I sometimes wonder if there are any worthwhile new (to me) ideas to explore. I like Smith's idea. I liked the idea (a one-word difference in the Declaration of Independence leads to a libertarian utopia) enough to burn through this book relatively quickly. If you're a libertarian, I'm sure you will love this book. You've probably read it already.
None of this can make up for the COMPLETELY SHITTY DIALOGUE or WEAK DIME-NOVEL PLOT. The dialogue was so bad that it made me angry. Every time the narrative would roll into one of those fannish aw-shucks moments, I got angry. When I felt by the end that I was reading an L. Ron Hubbard novel, I got angry. I wish that I could do 2 1/2 stars in reflection of these moments. I enjoyed the story, and the ideas, and I was entertained for the most part. Reader beware. There is much dopiness here.
As a side note, Smith seems to really dislike Denver (my home). I assume that in 1980 Denver was a lousy place to live due to pollution and crime and general sprawl. The snide comments coming out of the characters are pretty obvious (even if neither setting in the book is "my" Denver).
Later: I changed the rating to 2 stars because every time I think of this book, I get angry.
2021-03-04 I remember reading this in the early 80s and loving it. Excellent future thinking libertarian society with historical precedent.
Lots of fun.
Neat ideas on new societies that have "buy-in" on the basic contract/constitution, or exclusion - kinda like the Mayflower Compact. Voluntary agreement to terms.
Perhaps I'm being cynical here, but Smith's novel seems to physically collapse when faced with plausibility as if it were it's very own version of kryptonite. Gorillas with guns, Dolphin scientists, Robert Heinlein an admiral, and Thomas Jefferson ending slavery, using the exact compromise that failed in OTL. All of these and more succeed without fail(there is no racism, no randomized violence, no real poverty, etc. etc.). What emerged was not a possible world but quite simply libertarian porn, and ultimately for all Smith's posturings: propaganda plain and simple. After all the villains are heinous, the heroes brilliant, the world perfect. Compare this to our own world and the point is made. While reading this I was unable to forget for a moment that the author was going far over the top to sell me something, and quite simply while I don't believe in any of the possibilities that Smith promises, I also find the libertarian ideology inherently flawed as it is. Smith merely became through the course of this book a car salesman trying to dress up the clunker in the warehouse. A better author could have accomplished this same task better, with more depth, less alienation, and with quite a bit more subtlety, not of course that the message would have been any more realistic, just less annoying.
There are people who thinks and act for themselves with the proddings of government or corporation. It is interesting to peek into a future where indivuduals are ultimatley responsible for themselves, and government and corporatio alike must respond to the true will of the people, not just waht they market to the people. It is fiction, but this book and the sequel tweak soul and ask you what would have happened if the US had rebelled against its first government the second they tried to implement taxation.
While the actual prose is well-constructed, the book itself is such a glaring work of libertarian propaganda that it was impossible for me to enjoy it as a piece of fiction in and of itself. I must admit that I am biased in this matter, being so strongly opposed to most of the libertarian ideology.
The best I can say about this novel is that the author seems bent on portraying his view of a libertarian utopia and is passionate about the world he has created - as glaringly full of holes and inconsistencies as it is.
The book did give me much to think about, but all that I thought of was how much I disagree with the ideas expressed within. If L. Neil Smith intended, in writing The Probability Broach, to actively turn people away from libertarianism - then well done; he has succeeded admirably.
Unless you are already strongly libertarian, I suggest passing over this book in favor of something, anything, better.
Even if I were an Ayn Rand-style libertarian, which I am not, I would still hate this book. In fact, I would hate it a lot more for being such a crappy book claiming to represent my ideas. As it is, I think Ayn Rand is almost completely wrong about everything, so this book didn't personally offend me. It's just an awful book with cardboard characters, stilted dialogue, and a silly plot.
Award winning libertarian science fiction. Parallel histories, one of which evolved from different post-1776 events into utopian libertarian society. Thought-provoking & entertaining.
I'm sure that someone out there has already titled a review like this "Ron Paul's favorite SF novel!", which would be funny except a) it probably isn't and b) something tells me he doesn't read a whole lot of science-fiction anyway.
If that poor attempt at a joke didn't clue you into what you're in for, or for those coming into this via a book that has the front and back cover and the introduction torn out entirely, L Neil Smith is a SF writer that hails from the Libertarian political party, something he is quite proud of, and honestly the party seems proud to have him. For those who possess an intact copy of the book, the front trumpets it as "the quintessential Libertarian science-fiction adventure" while the back cover comments that he's the foremost Libertarian SF writer today. Meanwhile the introduction is written by the president of a publishing company of libertarian literature and basically talks about how Smith went and created the best world ever.
The short version of this: if you're aligned politically with this, you're going to feel right at home joining in all the congenial backslapping going on here while if your politics tend to fall somewhere toward the leftward side of things you may yourself yelling at an inanimate object on occasion, or being very cross with a book that won't let you argue back at it. As an aside, one thing I found amusing is that while the cover copy notes that Smith won the Prometheus Award for best Libertarian fiction (three times, to be exact), it doesn't note that he established the award himself and while I'm sure he recused himself from voting on his own book that is kind of like me creating an award called "The Best Books Written in My Style" and being astounded when I turn out to be the best candidate around for the book.
But enough background . . . how is the book? It's actually quite entertaining in an earnest and breathless kind of way. Denver police detective Win Bear is investigating a murder in his own world where the ideas of those rotten liberals have been given free reign, thus trapping everyone in a nanny state where cigarettes are wink-wink contraband and it's illegal to hurt someone's feelings. It's of course the most miserable place ever so it's to his benefit that in the course of that investigation he winds up being triggering a probability broach and is transported to another Earth, one where the US has been replaced by the North American Confederacy, every single person is armed to the teeth, the government is happy to be perfectly useless, individuality is paramount and thus everything is indeed, awesome. There he encounters that world's version of himself, a hot girl with a healing touch and an old lady who is like your grandmother in that she's always right but unlike your grandmother in that she never buys treats. But she is armed, baby. In a world where George Washington was executed during the Whiskey Rebellion and thus depriving us of President's Day auto sales, together they have to stop a conspiracy involving people who are mad that nobody listened to Alexander Hamilton and instead went with that old buzzkill Thomas Jefferson . . . there's a plan to invade and a lot of gunfire is exchanged, while in between the old lady explains to Win why this world is so much better than his despite the fact that both worlds lack "The Bachelor" and are thus cultural black holes.
In case you haven't figured it out, there's an awful lot of wish fulfillment going on here and if you listen closely enough you can hear the sound of heels constantly clicking together while the author whispers "There's no place like home, please let this be home". While I can sympathize with some aspects of the Libertarian Party they aren't where I hang my hat politically and that makes me either the target audience or absolutely not the target audience. Unfortunately, as a tract to convince people that the foundations of Libertarism are the best means to run a country, it falls a bit short . . . while converts may nod in appreciation every time author mouthpiece Lucy speaks, in a world where intelligent gorillas and dolphins are the norm you're not exactly going to be greeted by stunning realism and even if he was writing a strictly realistic version of the real world he'd run into the same problem that Ayn Rand (who is President at some point) had . . . just because everything works out perfectly in your fiction doesn't mean your ideas are right, it just proves that when you write the story, things tend to work out the way you want them.
Fortunately Smith does bother with an actual plot in between careening through the Libertarian Party's greatest hits, and it's the kind of story that works purely on momentum alone, where it seems like everyone is constantly running or shouting, preparing for imminent danger or escaping from peril, where every line of dialogue is delivered breathlessly while over the shoulder. The breaks for chapters seem more for the reader's benefit than anything else. Meanwhile, everything is progressing so rapidly that there's barely any time for characters to develop, with Win mostly acting confused as he tries to figure out the rules of the world, the hot girl falling for him despite the fact that his more in shape twin is right there all the time (wish fulfillment in itself, especially since she basically throws herself at him despite their introduction to each other coming after him proving that he's no good at dodging bullets . . . but he's the hero so that's cool) and everyone else falling into the camps of either being Libertarian and awesome or backing Allie Hams and thus trying to federally reserve you a coffin.
It reminds me of nothing more than a Heinlein novel in that period where his novels were transitioning from the juveniles to his own well tailored brand of libertarianism (q.v. "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress") and Smith's novel features many of the tropes that Heinlein practically invented, an Everyman hero who is able to survive in an unfamiliar place based on his wits and pluck, a world run by controversial values where everything is amazingly better than here and of course the grizzled yet awesome old person who knows all and is never wrong and acts as the mouthpiece for the author, explaining to the hero how everything he believed is wrong and everything they believe is true without question. In the midst of this the plot is almost secondary to the grand tour of All Libertarian All The Time and there are moments where the balance between "telling us a story" and "telling us how to fix the country" is very wobbly and he doesn't always fall down on the right side.
Better people than me can chime in on whether what the author feels is Hamiltonism actually relates to things Hamilton believed. Still, it makes for a grand fantasy (his amazing world of many guns and no government seems to work perfectly as long as things like racism or poverty or, um, people with disabilities don't exist) and it definitely wants to be the kind of thing you either read in your early twenties that shapes your worldview forever or the book you read in your thirties and forties when you want to be reminded of all the cozy values you feel this country has forgotten . . . and while it works to a great extent it also comes across as watered down Heinlein, perhaps lacking some of his crazier excesses but also lacking the "whoa did he just go there?" swaggering verve that made "Starship Troopers", "Stranger in a Strange Land" or the aforementioned "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" such necessary reads even if you didn't agree with the politics (of course that approach also gave us stuff like "Farnham's Freehold" which takes "did he just go there" to somewhat disturbing heights). Here, for the most part the story is a vehicle for the politics where he gives us a premade world without depicting any of the blood or sweat or disagreements or compromises that got this alternate world to that point . . . everyone in the world is so sure of themselves and never doubts, which as we know in the real world from past experience, it'd be nice if people making big decisions once in a while stepped back and said, "Gee, is this really the right thing to do?" By giving us a world that lacks the mess of the real world, it delivers a nice pulp story but underneath the gleaming sheen everything is so smooth and polished that without the friction to make it stick, all the important stuff the author wants to convey just lands in a gooey puddle on the floor. You can study it, you can nudge it with your foot, but it doesn't necessarily convince you that you want to get any of it on you.
I agree with the reviewer who said this book is for niche tastes (although given I do to some extent fit the niche, my rating is correspondingly higher.) This is libertarian science fiction--indeed it could be described as libertarian porn: that kind of book where you, if you're inclined that way politically, rather revel in the rare experience of seeing your ideas (or at least the ideas you've debated with fellow libertarians) brought to life. There are works of libertarian science fiction, or works labeled as such, I think mainstream readers can enjoy--and not even notice the political tilt. I would describe myself as having been politically a typical liberal in my teens when I discovered Robert Heinlein, but I loved his The Moon is a Harsh Mistress completely oblivious to any libertarian message until I found it listed as libertarian science fiction when I became involved in the movement. Similarly there are works by Poul Anderson, Vernor Vinge and James P. Hogan called libertarian science fiction which I'd recommend to non-libertarian friends as good yarns, imaginative and well-written, that don't hit someone as overly polemical.
I can't imagine that being the case with The Probability Broach as much as I personally enjoy it. The book reads to me as one big in-joke in its alternate history and its anarcho-capitalist armed society. I can't see this book as sparking off a conversion experience. I can't imagine anyone who wasn't already exposed to these ideas taking them seriously enough to enjoy them--or even lightly enough to enjoy them. Nor do I think the uninitiated are even going to "get" such things as William F. Buckley and Ayn Rand's cameos in this book. As it is, this book ascribes to a version of libertarianism even most self-described libertarians would consider extreme. That said, did I find it fun? I admit I did. Except darn it, my city of New York didn't get where it did because of political pull--Alexander Hamilton's or anyone else's. I have three words for you: Deep water port.
This was a lot of fun. Smith had a lot of fun himself, I am sure, writing it. I enjoyed the mix of hard-boiled detective, sci-fi, and libertarian Utopian fantasy. I got a kick out of some of the homages that Smith paid to classic libertarian figures. That said, it was not as polished as one might want. Some of the dialogue and plot points were a bit cheesy. The love story fell a little flat for me. The way in which Smith unwound history from the departure point is implausible--but that's par for the course for this genre. Nevertheless, the historical timeline departed quite sharply from our own and so I think it needed either a more significant departure point or several more divergences.
In the end, I will certainly give NAC #2 a read at some point. It's just too much fun.
I've been meaning to read this one for a while, and it didn't disappoint. A great combination of libertarian philosophy and fast paced action. Finished it in about three days, with lots of notes along the way.
It was a wonderful Libertarian fantasyland. I'm sure people take this a little more seriously, or want to believe it could happen in their heart of hearts, but just enjoying it as a fantasy is enough for me.
LOVED this book. Sci-fi alternative history, experiencing an anarchist America... all because of one additional word in our Constitution. Very interesting! Definitely more of a fun read than intellectual, easy to get through. Though provoking though!
Win Bear is a cop in a future bleak regulated world. He is investigating the murder of a man(Vaughn Meiss-get it) gunned down in an alley but then is told by his commander to give the case to the feds. His commander leaves the building that evening and his run over by a car. Win decides to continue with the case. He drives out to the man’s last place of employment and is attacked. Then there is an explosion.
He wakes up in a strange place. It is cleaner and everyone he sees is wearing a pistol on their hip, even the children.
He looks up his name in a phone booth and decides to head there. He is attacked again, riddled with bullets and almost dies. He has attended to by Ed Bear and Clarissa. He learns that he now is in the North American Confederacy, a place where everyone packs guns, medical technology is incredibly advanced-people live to 100- and there are no restrictions on economic activity. He learns all this, while he is recovering from his dozen bullet wounds.
Win is in an alternate universe, the history of which begins with the people winning the Whiskey Rebellion and Gallatin killing George Washington. Win also thinks that the reason why there is a duplicate of him is that being American Indian they lived in the west too far for their ancestors to be affected by these alternate timelines.
Win occupies himself reading local history as he recovers from another attack. In this alternate universe slavery ended earlier so there was no Civil War, there was no World War I, there was no World War II, or Korea or Vietnam. Inventions came much earlier. And of course, chimpanzees are citizens. As are cetaceans.
There is no government in this world. There are private security agencies that provide protection. Should someone commit a crime justice demands they pay compensation. So, this is an anarcho-capitalist world. It is a fabulously wealthy and advanced world because government doesn’t tax the people and producers as is done in our world. We pay income taxes, property taxes, estate taxes, death taxes, and sales taxes. Everything we purchase has been previously taxed. None of this exists in the Confederacy world.
Then when Ed is out for his job a large group attacks the house again. It turns out they are Hamiltonians, Federalists.
One of the attackers gives up a name before he hangs himself in a prison cell: Madison. They find John Jay Madison and visit his large mansion. He admits to being a Hamiltonian proudly. Ed and Win break into his house while he is gone one night and find three film canisters.
How Win ended up in this world is vaguely explained by a porpoise scientist.
They all learn from the films that the plan is to open a Broach and send equipment and personnel to the Confederacy world and take it over.
After another attack, where Ed and Clarissa are kidnapped, they reach out to the President of the Continental Congress who calls a general meeting. Every libertarian crackpot who has a small faction wants to be heard and get a chance to forward a motion before they’ll agree to listen to the threat posed by the Hamiltonians. After the threat posed by Madison is presented to the body, Madison gets up and says there’s nothing they can do. You have no laws against immigration so if I bring an army from the other dimension you can’t stop me. And you have no laws against any sort of weaponry.
So, Win challenges Madison to a duel. The duel takes place between Win and Madison’s second.
There are several more incidents and then the novel ends on a self congratulatory note.
Smith feels the need to show in 100 different ways how this anarchist world is different than ours, and oh, so much better. I am grateful that he shows how getting everyone to agree to face a global threat is nearly impossible. He gets bogged down in descriptions of trivialities. He should have shortened the story. His writing style is awful.
This book has some good libertarian world building and several very interesting characters. But a lot of the dialogue is embarrassingly corny and there are some expository speeches that are as cringeworthy as Ayn Rand, though mercifully not as long. 3.5 stars, but those shortcomings preclude me from rounding up.
This is a bad book, but one I enjoyed from start until just before the end, when it seemed to have lost momentum. As many have pointed out before me, this is wish-fulfilment political propaganda that seriously toes the line with pornography. The characters are cardboard thin, sanctimonious, and lecture on the book's ideology at the drop of a hat; it's littered with contradictions and absurdities; the villains are lighter than straw; there's a cringe-inducingly unearned romance; there's an awkward treatment of race that is, at best, embarrassing.
However, I do admire the author's daring. He went so hard into a U.S.-libertarian wet dream that his imagination broke loose into a whole other dimension. It wouldn't have resonated, otherwise. Everybody in society has a gun? Give me a break. Fusion-powered dirigibles? It's been done. Talking chimpanzees? Now you've got my attention. Except for the lame ending (which was possibly rushed), it's a rollicking, ham-and-cheese story in an absurd landscape that is just inherently funny and interesting.
I'm not judging the book entirely on its ideology, but it's unavoidable, and there are a couple things worth mentioning. If you're familiar with U.S.-libertarianism, you'll recognize a lot of the tropes. You'll also find a few ideas that aren't completely insane. These come from actual libertarianism (e.g., the ideas of Peter Kropotkin, who is mentioned several times in the book). I actually don't think the core of libertarianism is insane at all - I mostly agree with it, in fact. However, Libertarians in other countries decided a long time ago that the best way to achieve their ends was through humanitarian means generally considered leftist; it's mainly in the USA that libertarianism has been infected with the bizarre pro-NRA, anti-accountability nonsense that you see in this book. It's neither effective in the book (the utopian society intentionally fails to stop a clear existential threat against them, surviving only through pure luck on the part of the protagonists) nor in real life (do I have to explain how singularly destructive the American distrust in government has been this year?).
Because of my current frustration with the very real and very damaging effect this book's sort of thinking has had in the world, there's a kind of satisfying deflation going on here. Any ideology that responds to the notion of shared responsibility - even in a time of crisis - the way a spoiled child responds to having to mow the lawn deserves to be shown for the cartoonishness that it is. L. Neil Smith has pulled that off brilliantly.
It's rare I don't finish a book but this was just too silly. The premise is interesting. The government controlled future (1987) is a mess. Shortages, illegal tobacco, illegal air conditioning. A detective discovers a portal to a libertarian utopia where George Washington was filled and the constitution was declared null and void....2 things
1) It is so heavy handed. The bad side is so comically horrible and the utopia side is so comically without problems that it can't be taken seriously.
2) It deals with none of the inherent problems with a missing federal government. WWI is settled by volunteer soldiers and WWII never happens...It is historically dishonest...
I bought a copy of "The Probability Broach" by L. Neil Smith (1980) online, used. When I first found out about libertarianism there were a bunch of books I was told I ought to read and this was one of them. Somehow I never got around to it and even forgot about it completely until recently. I can't remember when or where it came up but I remembered the title and looked for it at the library. They didn't have it so I had to buy.
The book is a satire of the hard-boiled detective genre and also of the system we live under, as well as the idea of "Ancapistan", the hypothetical ideal libertarian world. It is also chock full of witty one-liners both in the dialogue as well as the thoughts of the narrator/protagonist, Denver PD detective Win Bear. The plot revolves around Bear investigating the murder of a college professor and member of the "Propertarian" party (there are many real-life organizations, ideas, and even historical figures that receive nicknames or altered names in the book; the Libertarian Party thus becomes the Propertarian Party) who is in possession of some strange coins at the time of his death, which is, it should be mentioned, in the year 1987, the future from the author's perspective at the time he wrote the book. While pursuing the killers, Bear gets transported to an alternate timeline where the Whiskey Rebellion was never quelled and George Washington was shot as a traitor to the Revolution. The Constitution is declared to be the product of an illegal conspiracy (which it was) and the Articles of Confederation are confirmed as the law of the land in America.
There is an interesting (and I think on-purpose?) blend of the libertarian worldview being used to shame the status quo while also being a little tongue-in-cheek about the lofty ideals of libertarians. Smith portrays this world as one with vast wealth, no pollution, technological wonders, and a total lack of coercion. While it's easy to snicker at starry-eyed libertarians who envision such a utopia, one must also concede that poverty, pollution, stagnation, and tyranny are very real concerns in our world, one where libertarian ideas have been given few chances to flourish.
I had no idea that the book took place mostly in northern Colorado (Ft. Collins in our timeline, at least) and it was kind of neat to hear places that I live near get mentioned in a novel. I guess that's where the author lives (lived?) so it makes sense he'd have the story take place here.
Overall, I thought the book was pretty entertaining and actually light and humorous for the most part. There are suspenseful scenes too, including some shoot-outs, but the overall effect is one of satire and comedy.
Aspects of this novel are very reminiscent of some of Ayn Rand's work, especially Atlas Shrugged and We the Living. The story begins in a dystopian Denver within a dystopian United States. In its language (first-person narrative), it's a lot like Dashiell Hammet's hard-boiled Continental Op detective stories. The protagonist is a middle-aged Denver homicide detective, Win Bear. People are being murdered right and left -- some for their bodies (there's a meat shortage after all) and some for other reasons, such as their politics or because they know too much. Bear ends up being accidentally transported into an alternate Denver in a different America with a very libertarian society. The story gets preachy in places, but it's still an absorbing read. I recommend it. The book is also available as a graphic novel drawn by Scott Bieser (originally a web serial) from Big Head Press. The first 36 pages (of 192) are available as a free preview on the Big Head website. The graphic version is very faithful to the novel.
I've loved this book ever since I read it in paperback when it was first published . Have purchased many copies for all the different e-readers I've owned even though Tor books has a no Drm policy and could read in any of the computers I have owned
Smith delivers on the philosophy of anarchy without lectures or long preachy passages. The plot is a thought exercise that left me ready to abandon this world for the one beyond the broach.
I enjoyed it and I can see why it is mentioned in Libertarian circles. I had read some later 'parallel world' books such as Thrice Upon A Time already, and so it didnt strike me as much of an innovative work as it probably deserved to.