ManBookering discussion
Predictions
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2015 Shortlist Predictions [MBP]
I have just finished six of the thirteen books. At this point, I think I would weed out A Spool of Blue Thread and a A Green Road.That leaves Lila, A Lesser Life, Illuminations and The Fisherman.
I think this will be the year I finally read all 13!
There are only 6 books that I have an interest in so that is going to be my goal. Did You Ever Have a Family (not out until Sep)
Sleeping on Jupiter
The Fisherman
The Year of the Runaways
A Little Life
and possibly A Spool of Blue Thread (probably not)
Maybe I just picked the shortlist?!
This isn't a prediction, per se, just an observation I made in scanning the nominees. The announcement of the Shortlist, and indeed the winner, could get very harrowing for the authors, since 5 of the 13 have first names beginning with the syllable 'An': Anne Enright, Anne Tyler, Anna Smaills, Anuradha Roy, and Andrew O'Hagan! I am sure each of them will be anticipating that it is THEIR name being called, when/if the announcer starts the announcement with that syllable!
I am on my ninth book of the 13. So far, I would put Satin Island, A Brief History of Seven Killings and Sleeping on Jupiter on my shortlist. I will add others when I have read more, but I don't think any of those will be displaced. Strong contenders for a place are Lila and The Fishermen, but let's see.
Mod
A Little Life (I'd be shocked if it doesn't make the shortlist)
Did You Ever Have a Family
The Fishermen
The Chimes
The Moor's Account
A Brief History of Seven Killings
I have a 1 in 1235520 chance of getting all of those correctly, so the odds are slim. But hopefully 1 of those makes it! We shall see.
Like Neil, I am also on my ninth book, A Brief History of Seven Killings (which I think will make the shortlist.) I am rethinking The Green Road... and as I read it before the list came out, will try to reread it before the fifteenth.I think Satin Island, Lila, and maybe A Little Life will also make the shortlist...
I have yet to read The Moor's Account, Did You Ever Have a Family , Sleeping on Jupiter and The Year of the Runaways (which I expect I will love....)
I've never read anything in my life even remotely like A Brief History of Seven Killings. I understand that a lot of people just won't get it. It's pretty brutal. Of course there's violence, there vulgarity all throughout, hard core descriptions of male on male sex, but damn--it's one hell of a book. If there's a book any more deserving I cannot wait to read it. Needless to say, I'm hoping at this point "Seven Killings" wins the award, and I'll be shocked if that changes as I read the longlist over the next 2-3 weeks. It will be a travesty if it doesn't make the shortlist, but I'll understand.
Chuck wrote: "I've never read anything in my life even remotely like A Brief History of Seven Killings. I understand that a lot of people just won't get it. It's pretty brutal. Of course there's ..."The violence disturbs me; however, it is such an integral part of the book. The writing awes.... I
Hi Maxwell - it is only 1235520 if you want to get the order right. A lot of those will be the same 6 books but picked in a different order. There are only (!) 1716 unique short lists if you just want to get the right 6 books on it.
Mod
Oops, you are correct! I'm not much of a numbers person haha. Well still, odds are slim that I guessed correctly, but it'll be fun to see!
Maxwell wrote: "Neil wrote: "Hi Maxwell - it is only 1235520 if you want to get the order right. A lot of those will be the same 6 books but picked in a different order. There are only (!) 1716 unique short lists ..."It is the difference between permutations and combinations - the sad legacy of a mathematics degree some 35 years ago! Lots of permutations are the same combination but in a different order, so it really depends on whether the order matters. I guess for a shortlist it doesn't: you just need to name the right six books.
However, when I submit my final view on the shortlist, I will also pick my personal winner. I have one book to read, but, from what I have read about it, I expect it to make my shortlist. This means I could have a go at my list now. It would be:
Satin Island
A Brief History of Seven Killings
Sleeping on Jupiter
The Year of the Runaways
A Little Life
Did You Ever Have a Family?
And my winner would, I think, be The Year of the Runaways, but I need to reflect on that a bit more before being definite! And read the final book.
The one I have yet to read is A Little Life. I'm pretty sure that will go on my shortlist. If, for some reason, it does not, I would go with The Fishermen to replace it.
Just finished "Did You Ever Have a Family?". Changed my mind about the winner!
Still got 2.5 books to finish before I make my predictions, but thought folks might find this Guardian article on the bookie's odds (who knew?) interesting:http://www.theguardian.com/books/book...
I'd have to agree A Little Life seems to be the frontrunner, but am astounded they think Lila is in 2nd place!
Doug, I just looked on Oddschecker and it seems the money is being spent on the two long books by those who are placing bets. The order of the list seems really strange to me, too: Lila in second is something I struggle to get my head round!
I am now two-thirds of the way through A Little Life. That is more than enough to be sure it will be on my shortlist, so I am sticking with my 6 books in my previous post. Actually, for me, at least, these 6 books stand head and shoulders above the others so picking my shortlist is actually easy. Picking my winner is a lot, lot harder: all of my six choices have something about them that makes me think they should win! I have thought about this quite a bit over the last few days and, every time I decide on one book, all the others put up their hands and shout "Me, me, me!" reminding me of why I should pick them!
At this point here's my predictionDid You Ever Have A Family
A Spool of Blue thread
The Year Of the Runaways
Sleeping on Jupiter
The Illuminations
A Little Life (Gut feeling as I haven't read it)
I still haven't read The Year of the Runaways, but currently my shortlist would be:Sleeping on Jupiter
A Brief History of Seven Killings
Lila
Illuminations
Satin Island
Not sure about The Fishermen and The Green Road....
Ack.... feel like I should be rereading....
My prediction is the following: A Little Life
Lila
The Fishermen
A Brief History of Seven Killings
Did You Ever Have a Family
The Year of the Runaways
I'd love it if Satin Island and The Moor's Account would be found among the lucky six however. Though my favorite so far is Did You Ever Have a Family - I can´t imagine that one not being on the shortlist. I haven't read A Little Life yet, but I'm hoping it makes it onto the shortlist anyway, because her last book was the best book I read last year, and it didn't seem to get much attention anywhere.
Ok, I think I'm going to go with: Lila
A Little Life
The Green Road
Did You Ever Have a Family
A Brief History of Seven Killings
Satin Island
Not quite sure about A Little Life, to be honest - but I'm hoping to see it there. Satin Island on the other hand - not a fan, but I still think it's going to make it.
Haven't finished my 13th book (Brief History) yet, but am going to go ahead and proffer my predictions... PLUS my list of personal favorite top six, which is quite different. I think these will be the shortlist nominees: A Little Life
Lila
The Illuminations
A Brief History of Seven Killings
The Year of the Runaways
The Fishermen
Here are my reasonings, which take into account how the Bookers really tend to select, rather than pure literary quality (which, as always, is subjective anyway): 'A Little Life' is the big splashy must read that is impossible to ignore. 'Lila', although I personally didn't much care for it, is also a critical darling and brings Robinson's Pulitzer cachet in its wake, plus I think they will want more than one American on the list. O'Hagan is a perennial Booker bridesmaid, and the Afghanistan war sections makes 'The Illuminations' an 'important' book. There always seems to be a big 'difficult' book on the list, and I think "A Brief History' will fill that 'slot'; it also inveighs against American imperialism/geopolitical manipulation and CIA involvement in the drug wars, which I think renders it a popular candidate for inclusion. Likewise, a South Asian novel always seems to make the list, and though I'd prefer 'Sleeping on Jupiter' to fill this category, 'The Year of the Runaways' is more in keeping with what has been nominated recently (i.e., The Lowlands, The Lives of Others) - and its subject matter of the plight of Indian immigrants to the UK makes it a more immediately contemporary choice. Finally, I honestly think The Fishermen will be included simply due to being the only nominee from an African country - and an attempt to ameliorate the critics that have lambasted the Bookers for being a bastion for elitist white authors.
Either Enright or McCarthy may well slip in, since both have been nominees/winners in the past and I wouldn't be upset at either being included. Tyler may be a sentimental choice, and the inclusion of 'Spool' more or less a lifetime achievement acknowledgement. I would love to see Clegg included, but think 'Family' somehow is a too "American' book to merit attention here. As to Smaill and Lalami, I don't think the quality of writing or plotting is there to warrant moving on.
As to my personal choices, these are my top 6 favorites, more or less in order:
Did You Ever Have a Family
Sleeping on Jupiter
The Green Road
A Little Life
Satin Island
The Year of the Runaways
Doug wrote: "Haven't finished my 13th book (Brief History) yet, but am going to go ahead and proffer my predictions... PLUS my list of personal favorite top six, which is quite different. I think these will be..."I like the thought process, Doug and I can see the logic. You may well be right, although I personally didn't think The Illuminations was strong enough to make it under any logic! We are close in our lists of 6 personal choices: you have The Green Road and I have A Brief History..., but otherwise the same. However, I think you are right and neither of us will see our six favourites all make it through.
Neil...I haven't FINISHED Brief History yet, but so far it isn't really grabbing me, so suspect it will be towards the middle-bottom of my list. Illuminations I DID enjoy, but more for the Anna sections than the Afghanistan ones; it currently sits at #7 on my list, but more or less by default, as the others seemed even worse!
Neil ...Very impressed that you are finished.
Doug...
Like Neil, I like your reasoning. I am only just beginning The Year of the Runaways... so will wait until I finish before I finalize my list.
Shari wrote: "Neil ...Very impressed that you are finished.
Doug...
Like Neil, I like your reasoning. I am only just beginning The Year of the Runaways... so will wait until I finish before I finalize my list."
Shari - I surprised myself! I had read Satin Island before the list was announced, but I wasn't at all sure I could read all the other 12 before the shortlist announcement. In the end, I had a week to spare. My wife was quite pleased that I spoke to her last night for the first time since end-July (slight exaggeration).
Doug - I find what you wrote a few posts above insulting and reeking of ignorance - you seem to insinuate that the Man Booker judges choose their shortlist on the basis of location. Imagine the scenario as written by you:Man Booker Chairperson to judges: Time for the shortlist. Come on
Booker Judges: Oh we MUST choose that Nigerian, that would be so unique. Oh we need the token Indian novel. Just so we'll be culturally diverse. Ooo should we include that Caribbean? Of course! How about that Bill Clegg fella? Nah he's just too American for us!!
Think about it
Robert: I found YOUR post insulting ... I think we can disagree without resorting to infantile personal attacks. We all have differing opinions and this forum graciously allows us to air them without resorting to name calling. We shall see on Tues. whether my considered analysis bears fruit.
Robert, that's a serious over-reaction, I think. The whole point of these discussions is for us to share thoughts and put different points of view. If yours is different to Doug's, can't you just say that without being insulting? Doug has looked at previous years of Booker and shared some thoughts. You don't have to agree - I thought the point of this forum was to have some fun predicting what we thought would be on the short list knowing we would all have different ideas.
Personally I don't really care if your analysis bears fruit:OH YEAH DOUG WAS RIGHT, THE MAN BOOKER JUDGES DO CHOOSE THEIR TITLES ACCORDING TO RACE AND REGION!!!!
Seriously and in a mature fashion. What made me angry was that your post was not an opinion, it was racist and that should never be allowed on a forum. In on whole paragraph you said that the Man Booker judges do not choose their books according to literary merit but skin color and location.
Man Booker Prize shortlist and winners all have one thing in common: They are books that bear constant re-readings and THAT is what you should bear in mind, not if having a Nigerian will make the Man Booker group look good because they appear to be culturally diverse (as you wrote down).
Neil - I will be the judge of a serious over-reaction. Not you! It is fun predicting but not when it goes into that territory
Thank you Neil for stepping in with your mature and gracious consideration. I won't dignify Robert's hysterical and juvenile rant with a response.... hopefully the moderators will.
Sorry you're the one in the wrong with your racist writings.
Mod
I don't want to have to kick anyone out for vociferous remarks, or for any reason at all really. Let's redirect the conversation back to the subject at hand: the shortlist predictions.
Thank you.
Mod
If anyone else was offended by my considered and apparently controversial analysis, I sincerely apologize. Having followed the Booker for many years and worked as a Professor at two prestigious universities, as well as for the government, and thereby having sat on way too many selection committees myself, I am not naive enough to believe that merit alone is ever the sole consideration in the awarding of prizes and positions. Such things as politics, gender and race, sometimes unfortunately, are also often factors in such determinations... and that knowledge informed my selections.
Doug wrote: "If anyone else was offended by my considered and apparently controversial analysis, I sincerely apologize. Having followed the Booker for many years and worked as a Professor at two prestigious un..."Not offended at all. Although, I agree with Robert, that it would be lovely if the Man Booker committee chose the shortlist based on "purely literary merit" whatever that is, I think that what we know about an author or the setting of a book does impact our opinion of that book to a certain extent. I am thinking of George Eliot and the Bell sisters who felt that the male name was necessary in order to be taken seriously....
About 30 years ago I started reading everything I could by Virago press and was delighted and horrified to discover many wonderfully crafted and beautiful books that I had never heard of.... all written by women.
The Booker selection was once sexist, thus the Orange and now Bailey prize; and I am sure that it will never be completely free from implicit bias....
Reading is still a very subjective activity and thus, so is the judging of books.
Thank you again Doug for your shortlist predictions.
Not finished the whole long list yet but am going to make a prediction anywayThe Fishermen
Satin Island
Did you ever have a family
The Illuminations
A Little Life
A Short History of Seven Killings
I've only read a bit each of the last two but A Little Life is the favourite and Seven Killings sounds like a shortlist book.
These aren't necessarily my favourites -
Year of Runaways I liked more than most I've listed above but it didn't quite strike me as award material - but I'd be happy to be proved wrong
Once again I apologise for my outburst. Coming from an island which has only been independent since 1964 (we've been colonised since the dawn of time) you do feel that a work from a country shold be judged by it's own merit. In the past us Maltese were a laughing stock as the country that could not produce work cause it relied on the British to guide us ( Anthony Burgess focused on this factor quite cruelly in Earthly Powers) then now as an EU country, I can't help thinking that we are viewed as cute little eccentric islanders and see our work from that angle.Regarding feminism and the Booker. I agree with Shari completely, I do find in the past the Booker was overly male orientated but that has improved. A more recent example to the George Eliot story is the fact that J.K. Rowling had to use her initial because her publishers thought that people wouldn't buy a fantasy book with a woman's name on it. My students (I'm a school librarian by profession) are surprised when I tell them that J.K. stands for Joanne Kathleen
Thanks, Shari - sad, but true, that pure merit, whatever that is, is never the sole consideration for a literary, or any other prize... For those who are ignorant of the Bookers' checkered history and the rampant accusations of sexism, euro-centrism (somewhat undeniable given the original restrictions as to eligibility!), racism, cronyism, etc. that have forever plagued them, I would suggest reading the Wikipedia entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man_Boo.... I particularly loved the quote: In 2001, A. L. Kennedy, who was a judge in 1996, called the prize "a pile of crooked nonsense" with the winner determined by "who knows who, who's sleeping with who, who's selling drugs to who, who's married to who, whose turn it is".
Mod
Lila, A Little Life, Satin Island, A Brief History of Seven Killings, The Year of the Runaway, Did You Ever Have a Family.
I've read 5 of the books, but I'll have a punt based on impressions I'm getting of the others. I think the Man Booker prize is very aware of being an international prize these days, so I'm expecting an international short list, just like the long list which was if anything a little suspiciously well balanced.A Brief History of Seven Killings (surely there can't be a better book on the shortlist)
Lila (not read it but have a feeling this is going to win)
Sleeping on Jupiter
The Fishermen (not a fan, but suspect it will be picked)
Satin Island
The Year of the Runaways
I've not read A Little Life but I'm going against consensus here and saying it doesn't sound like a Booker prize type of book.
A Brief History of Seven KillingsA Little Life
Lila
The Year of the Runaways
The Fishermen
Satin Island
I just finished The Year of The Runaways...Here are the books that I hope make the short list, because they are all books I would love to teach with my AP students:
The Year of the Runaways
Lila
the illuminations
Sleeping on Jupiter
A Brief History of Seven Killings
The Green Road
Below are the books I think will win:
Satin Island
A Spool of Blue Thread
A Little Life
Lila
A Brief History Of Seven Killings
The Fisherman
Quite excited about the announcements tomorrow!And looking forward to people's reactions....
Mod
I don't think there is a livestream until the winner is announced, but I could be wrong. Also I'm not sure where I saw this (and I can't seem to find it again) but I think the announcement is at noon London time. So that would be 4am PST/7am EST in the U.S. I think.
Announced just before 11am UK time for some reasonI got four out six right - not bad. Did anyone get them all?
ManBookering
Books mentioned in this topic
A Brief History of Seven Killings (other topics)A Little Life (other topics)
Lila (other topics)
A Spool of Blue Thread (other topics)
The Fishermen (other topics)
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If you aren't aware, in September the judging panel will narrow the thirteen nominees down to six; then in October, one winner will be chosen from the remaining six.
Which six do you think will make this year's shortlist? Why?
Imagine an all-female shortlist! Or one dominated by people of color. The opening of the award to writers from anywhere in the world--as long as the novel is originally written in English and published in the UK--has given opportunity to even more writers to be recognized.