The Orion Team. discussion

First of all, I would like to say hi to you all! I am high schooler from Minnesota who is really interested in national security and military technology, and I was wondering how you all would think a modern day war between China (on one side) and the US and Russia (on the other) would play out. There are many new factors to consider, such as the increased growth of the PLAN, the advancement of air technology, etc. so I was wondering what you all think about it?The Bear and the Dragon

Also, I was thinking to not talk about ICBMs and nuclear weapons, because they annoy me because they are like trump cards that get in the way of the actual interesting tactics occurring

@ Janagan: do you really want to discuss a scenario where China is fighting both the USA and Russia? China would certainly try to avoid as much as possible such a war, unless it is being attacked without provocation by those two countries. Why would it try to avoid such a war? Because it would be certain to lose it, with or without the use of nuclear weapons. Believe me: I worked for over two decades as a military intelligence analyst. A much more plausible scenario would be a conventional war pitting the USA against both China and Russia, with possibly North Korea being the trigger for that war.

That is true - I do believe that quite certainly the US and Russia would win in such a scenario - I was just wondering how difficult you all think it would be (I wanted to keep my scenario relevant with the novel The Bear and The Dragon); but now that you mention it, what you suggested would be a more even scenario

Michel wrote: "@ Janagan: do you really want to discuss a scenario where China is fighting both the USA and Russia? China would certainly try to avoid as much as possible such a war, unless it is being attacked w..." I do agree with you, I was thinking more of terms of staying with the novel - would a war today be easier than it was in the novel for the US to win, or would it be harder?

One scenario I would like to consider is would China manage to gain air supremacy over eastern Siberia before American forces could intervene? The Russians do have good technology, but the Chinese have operational fifth-generation fighters (Chengdu J-22), meanwhile, the Sukhoi-57 has not yet become operational.

The problem for the Chinese in Eastern Siberia is that the Russians possess a dense and quite sophisticated air defense system around its periphery, including Siberia. Also, much of the present Chinese technology is either a straight copy or are direct descendants of Russian systems. I believe that the Russians would have an easy time jamming Chinese electronics and radars, or even hacking them.

To be frank, I didn't think much of the novel 'THE BEAR AND THE DRAGON'. As an ex-military intelligence analyst, I found the plot to be unrealistic, unbalanced and blinded by a complex of superiority in American weapons and forces. Sure, American forces are on the whole competent and well equiped with modern systems (if you except modern destroyers and cruisers equiped with radars and still unable to avoid collisions at sea in full daylight), but to paint your potential enemy as incompetent, unthinking or unreactive is something you do at your own risk. I particularly hated the smug remark by an American fighter pilot in the book when he said 'time to kill more baby seals' as he is about to fire his missiles. That smacked of over-confidence and possibly racism: nothing is assured in combat and you should never presume victory until the fight is over. Look what that kind of attitude cost the USA on Dec 7, 1941, in Pearl Harbor. My counsel would be to throw away that novel and not take its scenario too seriously. And we didn't even discussed what the Chinese could do to American carrier battle groups at sea. Yes, the USA and Russia would eventually prevail over China, but the cost could be high.

Here is the thing - I know I may be putting too much dependence on this new untested fighter, but the Chengdu J-22 is a new aircraft that is, if anything, based on American designs following the hack of the Joint Strike Fighter program for the F-35; could that play a role in taking out or at least blowing through the Russian air defense systems? Do you think the Russian radars could detect it?

Also, how do you think the Chinese could attack a carrier battle group? Do you think they would do it by submarines with some of the quieter, conventionally powered submarines?

Janagan wrote: "Here is the thing - I know I may be putting too much dependence on this new untested fighter, but the Chengdu J-22 is a new aircraft that is, if anything, based on American designs following the ha..." If it is anything like the F-35, it has a low probability of intercept radar and relatively stealthy features.

Janagan, every military system invites a counter-system and there is no such thing as a flawless system. Also, don't take at face value what the Pentagon may say about the F-35 or any other American weapon system or organization. The F-35 is optimized to defeat radars functioning in the higher frequency bands typical of radars equiping fighter aircraft, and this only in the frontal arc. Lower frequency radars (especially in VHF band) will be much harder to evade by F-35s, while the number and spacing of such radars (which the Russians possess in large numbers) will guarantee that any Chinese J-22 trying to penetrate Russian airspace will be painted from the sides by low frequency radars.

As for American carrier groups, the Chinese have had the capacity to hit them for years now, by using reconnaissance satellites to first locate those carrier groups and then using specially designed long range guided ballistic missiles to target and destroy the carrier(s). Yes, some of those missiles will be shot down, but you will need only one hit to take out a 12 billion dollar carrier and one tenth of the American naval airpower. Chinese diesel submarines could also lie in ambush for these carriers. Past NATO exercises have amply shown that carrier groups are far from immune from attacks by marauding diesel submarines, especially in waters with relatively shallow depths.

Michel wrote: "Janagan, every military system invites a counter-system and there is no such thing as a flawless system. Also, don't take at face value what the Pentagon may say about the F-35 or any other America..."

You know, that reminds me of the Admiral Arnold Morgan series by Patrick Robinson. The series heavily involves the use of diesel-electric submarines to get into places that they are not supposed to and wreak havoc on the US and her allies.

Michel wrote: "Janagan, every military system invites a counter-system and there is no such thing as a flawless system. Also, don't take at face value what the Pentagon may say about the F-35 or any other America..."
Does the US possess any of said low-frequency radars - I know the Russians and heck, even the Serbians when they shot down that F-117, have some of those longer wavelength radars, but I never hear of any country outside the Eastern bloc having such detection systems.

Michel wrote: "Janagan, every military system invites a counter-system and there is no such thing as a flawless system. Also, don't take at face value what the Pentagon may say about the F-35 or any other America..."
Also, is it possible to use the mountainous terrain to sort of hide behind? - it may require the aircraft to travel slower in order to stay in the valleys, but if they stay low enough and if they know which valleys the SAM radars are in, could they theoretically still evade the Russian radars?

Actually, one Canadian diesel submarine at least once managed to slip inside the zone protected by destroyers and helicopters defending an American carrier and got within torpedo range before popping a flare to signal its presence. That made for a very pissed American carrier group commander. I heard that at least one Chinese diesel submarine managed the same feat in the past few years, while Norwegian and Danish diesel coastal submarines keep surprising American warships approaching their coastal waters during NATO exercises. On the reverse side, one of the supposedly 'impossible to hear, super-silent' American Trident ballistic missile submarines had a civilian news crew aboard when it was located and tracked by a Canadian destroyer near Seattle.

On low frequency radars: they are actually quite common around the World and are typically used in fixed, long range surveillance radar stations in a number of countries, both friendly and hostile ones. Also, a number of such radars are associated with advanced surface-to-air missile systems, like the Russian S-300 and S-400 (Iran now has a few S-300 batteries by the way).

Yes, you can use low flying in hilly and mountaineous terrain to try to evade enemy radars. All aircraft can do that, and not only stealthy ones, but much will depend on how good the pilots are and what kind of weather there is at the time. Yes, modern aircraft have both radars and infra-red sensors, but flying low at night and in bad weather is incredibly stressful and tiring on a pilot.

Janagan wrote: "First of all, I would like to say hi to you all! I am high schooler from Minnesota who is really interested in national security and military technology, and I was wondering how you all would think..."

Welcome to the group Janagan, I'm sure you'll enjoy it here ;)

You just touched on my pet love of thriller fiction. Books that focus on China, spying in China or in this case, wars with China.......

Now here is another thing I was wondering about - let us say that the Chinese forces stormed into Siberia took a moderate amount of land near the border - not a lot, not a little, about as far as they could get in say, six hours, with armored cavalry. Would it be feasible for them to set up their own area denial system with mobile SAM launchers and radars (like the HQ-9) and defend the territory they gained?

Or maybe not necessarily six hours, but the amount of land they could gain before the Russian could launch a large air response to counterattack the invading forces