The Mookse and the Gripes discussion
Booker Prize for Fiction
>
2018 Man Booker Longlist Dynamic Rankings
League table (see below for a partial explanation)
Pos, Book, Average, Adjusted, Count, First Places
1, The Long Take by Robin Robertson, 4.30, 3.44, 30, 4
2, The Overstory by Richard Powers, 4.46, 3.73, 35, 7
3, Everything Under by Daisy Johnson, 4.53, 3.79, 34, 3
4, Milkman by Anna Burns, 4.91, 4.17, 34, 8
5, In Our Mad and Furious City by Guy Gunaratne, 5.03, 4.19, 33, 8
6, Warlight by Michael Ondaatje, 5.02, 4.63, 47, 9
7, From a Low and Quiet Sea by Donal Ryan, 5.24, 4.69, 46, 3
8, The Mars Room by Rachel Kushner, 6.13, 5.76, 39, 4
9, Normal People by Sally Rooney, 7.65, 6.68, 17, 0
10, Washington Black by Esi Edugyan, 7.73, 7.20, 30, 0
11, Sabrina by Nick Drnaso, 8.24, 7.92, 38, 0
12, The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh, 8.56, 8.42, 41, 0
13, Snap by Belinda Bauer, 10.61, 10.98, 41, 0
Some notes on how this table is calculated: (this was originally a response to Stephen's question, but Ang is right that this is a better place to put it).
The ranking method may seem rather arbitrary, but has evolved to try and create a fair mechanism for comparing lists of very different lengths. The arithmetic mean tends to favour books that have been read by more people rather than those ranked most highly by those who have read more.
We allow people either (i) to list the books they have read in order of preference, or (ii) to predict where they will finish in their eventual list.
Average is the simple arithmetic mean, Count is the number of ratings for the book and First Places is the number of people who have rated a book first.
The Adjusted weighting is the one that matters, and the aim is to place the rating on a scale of 0 to 12 (i.e. number of books - 1). I have tried to explain it before, and the precise calculation has been refined a few times! Firstly we decide whether the list is type (i) or type (ii). Type (i) is true if the highest ranking number is the same as the number of rankings in a list.
For type (ii), we just subtract one from the position to give the adjusted score. For type (i) we apply an adjustment so that the scores are evenly spaced (in particular a single ranking of 1 gives an adjusted score of 6, so in the early stages, if you want to back a book very strongly the best place to put it is 2).
The Adjusted value in the table is the arithmetic mean of these adjusted scores.
An alternative version of the table sorted using Paul's relative ranking system:
Pos, Book, Average, Relative ranking, Count, First Places
1, The Long Take by Robin Robertson, 4.30, 119, 30, 4
2, Everything Under by Daisy Johnson, 4.53, 116, 34, 3
3, The Overstory by Richard Powers, 4.46, 107, 35, 7
4, Milkman by Anna Burns, 4.91, 105, 34, 8
5, In Our Mad and Furious City by Guy Gunaratne, 5.03, 92, 33, 8
6, Warlight by Michael Ondaatje, 5.02, 73, 47, 9
7, From a Low and Quiet Sea by Donal Ryan, 5.24, 63, 46, 3
8, The Mars Room by Rachel Kushner, 6.13, -4, 39, 4
9, Normal People by Sally Rooney, 7.65, -14, 17, 0
10, Washington Black by Esi Edugyan, 7.73, -75, 30, 0
11, Sabrina by Nick Drnaso, 8.24, -126, 38, 0
12, The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh, 8.56, -169, 41, 0
13, Snap by Belinda Bauer, 10.61, -287, 41, 0
Pos, Book, Average, Adjusted, Count, First Places
1, The Long Take by Robin Robertson, 4.30, 3.44, 30, 4
2, The Overstory by Richard Powers, 4.46, 3.73, 35, 7
3, Everything Under by Daisy Johnson, 4.53, 3.79, 34, 3
4, Milkman by Anna Burns, 4.91, 4.17, 34, 8
5, In Our Mad and Furious City by Guy Gunaratne, 5.03, 4.19, 33, 8
6, Warlight by Michael Ondaatje, 5.02, 4.63, 47, 9
7, From a Low and Quiet Sea by Donal Ryan, 5.24, 4.69, 46, 3
8, The Mars Room by Rachel Kushner, 6.13, 5.76, 39, 4
9, Normal People by Sally Rooney, 7.65, 6.68, 17, 0
10, Washington Black by Esi Edugyan, 7.73, 7.20, 30, 0
11, Sabrina by Nick Drnaso, 8.24, 7.92, 38, 0
12, The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh, 8.56, 8.42, 41, 0
13, Snap by Belinda Bauer, 10.61, 10.98, 41, 0
Some notes on how this table is calculated: (this was originally a response to Stephen's question, but Ang is right that this is a better place to put it).
The ranking method may seem rather arbitrary, but has evolved to try and create a fair mechanism for comparing lists of very different lengths. The arithmetic mean tends to favour books that have been read by more people rather than those ranked most highly by those who have read more.
We allow people either (i) to list the books they have read in order of preference, or (ii) to predict where they will finish in their eventual list.
Average is the simple arithmetic mean, Count is the number of ratings for the book and First Places is the number of people who have rated a book first.
The Adjusted weighting is the one that matters, and the aim is to place the rating on a scale of 0 to 12 (i.e. number of books - 1). I have tried to explain it before, and the precise calculation has been refined a few times! Firstly we decide whether the list is type (i) or type (ii). Type (i) is true if the highest ranking number is the same as the number of rankings in a list.
For type (ii), we just subtract one from the position to give the adjusted score. For type (i) we apply an adjustment so that the scores are evenly spaced (in particular a single ranking of 1 gives an adjusted score of 6, so in the early stages, if you want to back a book very strongly the best place to put it is 2).
The Adjusted value in the table is the arithmetic mean of these adjusted scores.
An alternative version of the table sorted using Paul's relative ranking system:
Pos, Book, Average, Relative ranking, Count, First Places
1, The Long Take by Robin Robertson, 4.30, 119, 30, 4
2, Everything Under by Daisy Johnson, 4.53, 116, 34, 3
3, The Overstory by Richard Powers, 4.46, 107, 35, 7
4, Milkman by Anna Burns, 4.91, 105, 34, 8
5, In Our Mad and Furious City by Guy Gunaratne, 5.03, 92, 33, 8
6, Warlight by Michael Ondaatje, 5.02, 73, 47, 9
7, From a Low and Quiet Sea by Donal Ryan, 5.24, 63, 46, 3
8, The Mars Room by Rachel Kushner, 6.13, -4, 39, 4
9, Normal People by Sally Rooney, 7.65, -14, 17, 0
10, Washington Black by Esi Edugyan, 7.73, -75, 30, 0
11, Sabrina by Nick Drnaso, 8.24, -126, 38, 0
12, The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh, 8.56, -169, 41, 0
13, Snap by Belinda Bauer, 10.61, -287, 41, 0
mine:1 Milkman
3 Everything Under
6 The Overstory
8 In Our Mad and Furious City
9 The Water Cure
10 Washington Black
11 The Mars Room
12 The Long Take
(won't be reading Snap or Sabrina)
finding this tricky as to whether to rank versus normal Booker standards or this year’s crop as this does seem a particularly poor year
The Bookmakers rankings
based on average odds offered, as at 19 September, but I have also shown the longest odds available in brackets
1 Warlight 4.6-1 (best 6-1)
2 Sabrina 4.7-1 (6-1)
3 Normal People 5.5-1 (10-1)
4 The Overstory 6.6-1 (8-1)
5 The Long Take 6.6-1 (8-1)
6 Everything Under 6.9-1 (10-1)
7 Washington Black 7.7-1 (10-1)
8 The Low and Quiet Sea 8.4-1 (10-1)
9 In Our Mad and Furious City 10.4-1 (14-1)
10 Milkman 11.6-1 (14-1)
11 The Water Cure 12.4-1 (16-1)
12 The Mars Room 14.4-1 (16-1)
13 Snap 16.4-1 (20-1)
now with links to my reviews
1 Milkman (5*)
2 Everything Under
3 In Our Mad and Furious City
4 Normal People (4*)
5 The Long Take
6 The Overstory
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
7 From a Low and Quiet Sea
8 The Mars Room
9 Washington Black
10 Warlight
11
12 The Water Cure (3*)
13
I will only read Snap and Sabrina if they get shortlisted.
1 Milkman (5*)
2 Everything Under
3 In Our Mad and Furious City
4 Normal People (4*)
5 The Long Take
6 The Overstory
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
7 From a Low and Quiet Sea
8 The Mars Room
9 Washington Black
10 Warlight
11
12 The Water Cure (3*)
13
I will only read Snap and Sabrina if they get shortlisted.
My ranking: 1) Richard Powers - The Overstory
2) Robin Robertson - The Long Take
3) Esi Edugyan - Washington Black
4) Donal Ryan - From a Low and Quiet Sea
5)
6)
7) Michael Ondaatje - Warlight
8) Sally Rooney - Normal People
9) Daisy Johnson - Everything Under
10) Sophie Macintosh - The Water Cure
11) Guy Gunaratne - In Our Mad and Furious City
12) Nick Drnaso - Sabrina
13) Belinda Bauer - Snap
1) The Long Take - Robin Robertson **2) The Overstory - Richard Powers **
3) In Our Mad And Furious City - Guy Gunaratne
4) Everything Under - Daisy Johnson **
5) From a Low and Quiet Sea - Donal Ryan
6) The Mars Room - Rachel Kushner
7) Warlight - Michael Ondaatje **
8) Milkman - Anna Burns **
9) The Water Cure - Sophie Mackintosh
I will be pleased to see any of the above feature on the short list 6
10) Snap - Belinda Bauer
11) Normal People - Sally Rooney **
12) Washington Black - Esi Edugyan
13) Sabrina - Nick Drnaso (on grounds of readability rather than eligibility)
** The books I expect to make the short list based on public comment, reviews
1. The Mars Room2. The Overstory
3. Sabrina
4. Everything Under
5. In our Mad and Furious City
6.The Long Take
7. Normal People
8. Washington Black
9. The Water Cure
10. Warlight
11.From a Low and Quiet Sea
12.Milkman
13.
1. The Long Take2. Everything Under
3. In Our Mad and Furious City
4. The Overstory
5. Milkman
6. From A Low And Quiet Sea
--------------------------------------------------
7. Washington Black
8. Warlight
9. Normal People
10. The Mars Room
11. The Water Cure
12. Snap
13. Sabrina (I enjoyed it but have convinced myself it is not eligible)
1 From a Low and Quiet Sea2 The Long Take
3 Milkman
4 In our Mad and Furious City
5 Warlight
6 Sabrina
7 The Water Cure
8 Everything Under
9
10 Washington Black
11
12
13 Snap
A good start so far.1. Warlight
2. The Long Take
3. From a Low and Quiet Sea
4. Milkman
5. The Overstory
6. Normal People
7. The Mars Room
8. Washington Black
9. The Water Cure
10. Everything Under
11. Sabrina
My current views All Books now completed
1 Milkman
2 Everything Under
3 Normal People
4 In our Mad And Furious City
5 Warlight
6 The Long Take
7 The Overstory
8 The Mars Room
9 From a Low and Quiet Sea
10 The Water Cure
11 Sabrina
12 Washington Black
13 Snap
Not a prediction but a personal ranking. 1 In our Mad And Furious City
2 Warlight
3 The Overstory
4
5
6 Sabrina
7 Everything Under
8 Normal People
9 The Water Cure
10 The Mars Room
11 From a Low and Quiet Sea
12 Milkman
13
Books that should have made it:
1 Sight (Jessie Greengrasss)
2 French Exit (Patrick deWitt)
3
Placeholder for me too, although I'm not sure I am going to read them all: 1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
1. The Mars Room2. Everything Under
3. From a Low and Quiet Sea
4. The Overstory
5. Sabrina
6. Washington Black
7.
8.
9.
10. Warlight
11. Milkman
12. The Water Cure
13. Snap
..
.
1. In Our Mad and Furious City
2. The Mars Room
3. Everything Under
4. From a Low and Quiet Sea
5. Normal People
6. Milkman
7. Warlight
8. The Long Take
9. The Overstory
10. Sabrina
11. Washington Black
12. The Water Cure
13. Snap
Preference list updated as I read along:1. In Our Mad and Furious City 5*
2. Sabrina 5*
3. The Mars Room 4.5*
4. Milkman 4*
5. From a Low and Quiet Sea 4*
6. The Long Take 4*
7. Washington Black 4*
8. The Water Cure 3.5*
9.
10. Warlight 3*
11. The Overstory**
12.
13. Snap 1.5*
** currently reading, ranking may change
I'll do a preference list and update as I read the novels.1. Milkman
2. In our mad and furious city
3. The Mars room
4. Warlight
5. The long take
6. Everything under
7. Sabrina
8. From a low and quiet sea
9. The water cure
10. The overstory
11. Washington Black
12.
13.
Placeholder (preference list updated as I read).1. The Long Take
2. Warlight
3. From a Low and Quiet Sea
4. The Overstory
5. The Mars Room
6. Washington Black
7. Milkman
8. Everything Under
9.
10.
11. The Water Cure
12. Sabrina
13. Snap
13.
I hope to read them all, as all those not in hand have been ordered.1. Everything Under
2. The Mars Room
3. The Overstory
4. The Long Take
5. Warlight
6. In Our Mad and Furious City
7. Washington Black
8. Sabrina
9. Milkman
10. From a Low and Quiet Sea
11. Normal People
12. Snap
13. The Water Cure
List to be updated as I go!1. Milkman
2. Warlight
3. The Mars Room
4. Sabrina
5. The Water Cure
6. Snap
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
_PERSONAL LIST (what I would like to see on the shortlist):
1. Milkman by Anna Burns
2. Warlight by Michael Ondaatje
3. The Long Take by Robin Robertson
4.
5.
6. Normal People by Sally Rooney
7. Washington Black by Esi Edugyan
8. The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh
9. In Our Mad and Furious City by Guy Gunaratne
10. From a Low and Quiet Sea by Donal Ryan
11. Snap by Belinda Bauer
12. The Mars Room by Rachel Kushner
(13. Sabrina by Nick Drnaso. After some thoughts, I have decided I likely won't read Sabrina. It's hard to find right now and I don't want to spend money on it just because of the Booker.)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6. The Mars Room
7. Sabrina *
8.
9. From a Low and Quiet Sea
10. Warlight
11.
12. Snap
13.
* I agree that Sabrina should not be eligible, but I'm ranking it as it stands, considering that the committee, right or wrong, has deemed it eligible.
1. Warlight2. The Overstory
3. From a Low and Quiet Sea
4. Normal People
5. Everything Under
6. The Long Take
7. The Water Cure
8. The Mars Room
9. Washington Black
10. In Our Mad and Furious City
11. Sabrina
12. Snap
13. Milkman
As always, I'm in, and as usual, I've not read any of them.1. In Our Mad and Furious City
2. Everything Under
3. Milkman
4. Warlight
5. The Overstory
6. The Long Take
7. Normal People
8. From a Low and Quiet Sea
9. Washington Black
10. Snap
11. The Water Cure
12. The Mars Room
Ineligible because it isn't a novel: Sabrina
..
1 Milkman - Anna Burns
2 The Overstory - Richard Powers
3 Everything Under - Daisy Johnson
4 The Long Take - Robin Robertson
5 Warlight - Michael Ondaatje
6 Washington Black - Esi Edugyan
7 The Mars Room - Rachel Kushner
8 From A Low and Quiet Sea - Donal Ryan
9 Snap - Belinda Bauer
10 Sabrina - Nick Drnaso
11 Normal People - Sally Rooney
12 In Our Mad and Furious City - Guy Gunaratne
13 The Water Cure - Sophie Mackintosh
..
1 Milkman by Anna Burns
2
3
4 The Long Take by Robin Robertson
5
6 The Overstory by Richard Powers
7
8 Sabrina by Nick Drnaso
9 From a Low and Quiet Sea by Donal Ryan
10 Warlight by Michael Ondaatje
11 In Our Mad and Furious City by Guy Gunaratne
12 Snap by Belinda Bauer
13 The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh
..
1. In Our Mad and Furious City by Guy Gunaratne
2. Everything Under by Daisy Johnson
3. Warlight by Michael Ondaatje
4. The Overstory by Richard Powers
5. The Milkman by Anna Burns
6. Washington Black by Esi Edugyan
---
7. Sabrina by Nick Drnaso (actually loved this one but find it impossible to short list it)
8. From a Low and Quiet Sea by Donal Ryan
9. The Long Take by Robin Robertson
10. The Mars Room by Rachel Powers
11. The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh
12.
13. Snap by Belinda Bauer
..
1. The Overstory by Richard Powers
2. Milkman by Anna Burns
3. The Long Take by Robin Robertson
4. The Mars Room by Rachel Kushner
5. From a Low and Quiet Sea by Donal Ryan
6. Washington Black by Esi Edugyan
7. Normal People by Sally Rooney
8. Everything Under by Daisy Johnson
9. In Our Mad and Furious City by Guy Ganaratne
10. Warlight by Michael Ondaatje
11. The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh
12. Sabrina by Nick Drnaso (loved it but ineligible)
13. Snap by Belinda Bauer
My interest is waning (partly due to a lack of published books in the US), so I think I'll list what I've read in order of preference, but remove number rankings. Please ignore my list when calculating rankings. Thanks.Warlight
Everything Under
The Long Take
From a Low and Quiet Sea
The Overstory
The Mars Room
1. The Overstory2. Milkman
3. Everything Under
4. In Our Mad and Furious City
5. Sabrina
6. Normal People
7. Warlight
8. From a Low and Quiet Sea
9. The Long Take
10. Washington Black
11. The Mars Room
12. The Water Cure
13. Snap
I will edit as I read them. My library now has or has ordered all the books on the list.1.
2. Milkman
3. Warlight
4. In our Mad and Furious City
5. The Overstory
6. Everything Under
7. From a Low and Quiet Sea
8.
9.
10.
11. The Water Cure
12. Snap
13.
For me the top two are streets ahead of the others...1. In our Mad and Furious City
2. The Overstory
3. Normal People
4.
5. Warlight
6. The Mars Room
7. From a Low and Quiet Sea
8. Sabrina
9. Everything Under
10.
11. The Water Cure
12. Washington Black
13. Snap
1 The Mars Room2 Normal People
3 The Long Take
4 Sabrina
5 In Our Mad and Furious City
6 The Overstory
7 Warlight
8 Everything Under
9 From a Low and Quiet Sea
10 Washington Black
11 The Water Cure
12 Milkman (DNF)
13 Snap (DNF)
2 books to go!1. Washington Black
2. Everything Under
3. The Mars Room
4. Warlight
5. Normal People
6. Milkman
7. The Water Cure
8. The Long Take
9. From A Low and Quiet Sea
10. Sabrina
11. Snap
12.
13.
..
1. Everything Under
2. Milkman
3. Washington Black
4. The Water Cure
5. Normal People
6. The Overstory
7. The Mars Room
8. Warlight
9. The Long Take
10. From a Low and Quiet Sea
11. In Our Mad and Furious City
12. Snap
(13. Sabrina)/not gonna read
1.2. From a Low and Quiet Sea
3.
4.
5. Washington Black
6. The Mars Room
7. The Water Cure
8.
9. Warlight
10.
11.
12. Snap
13. Milkman
.
.
1.
2.
3. = The Long Take
3. = Sabrina
5.
6.
7. Everything Under
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
Links go to reviews.
.
1.
2.
3. = The Long Take
3. = Sabrina
5.
6.
7. Everything Under
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
Links go to reviews.
1 From a low and quiet sea2 The Mars Room
3 The Long Take
4 In a mad and furious city
5 Everything Under
6 Washington Black
7 The Water Cure
8 Warlight
9
10
11
12
13
Wow, everyone reads so fast. Here’s where I’m at.1.
2. Everything Under
3. From a Low and Quiet Sea
4. Warlight
5.
6. The Overstory
————————————
7.
8. The Water Cure
9.
10.
11.
(Not going to read Snap or Sabrina, maybe if they’re shortlisted.)
1. In Our Mad and Furious City2. Overstory
3. Everything Under
4. From A Low and Quiet Sea
5.
6. Warlight
7. Sabrina
8.
9. Mars Room
10. Snap
11.
12.
13. Normal People (will not read based on her previous book)
Nothing has topped The Overstory for me so far:1. The Overstory (10/10, review)
2.
3.
4. Everything Under (8/10, review)
5.
6. The Water Cure (7.5/10, review)
--------------------------
7. Sabrina (7.5/10, review)
8. From a Low and Quiet Sea (6.5/10, review)
9.
10. In Our Mad and Furious City (clearly in the minority opinion here with regards to this book, 5/10, review)
11.
12.
13. Snap (making a snap judgment about this based on online preview)
My library system has been slow to order the longlist titles, but I'm reading what I can as they come in. 1. Warlight
2. The Mars Room
3. Snap
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
1. Warlight2. Washington Black
3. From a Low and Quiet Sea
4. In our Mad and Furious City
5. The Long Take
6.. Overstory
7. Milkman
8.
9. The Water Cure
10.Snap
11.Everything under
12.Mars Room
13.
Ok, I've now read (or tried to read) all of them, and it's difficult to come up with 6 that should make the shortlist. Quite obviously, the judges and I have a completely different 'taste' in literature. There was only one book I thought was outstanding and two more that I considered good. 1. Long Take 5*
2. Low & Quiet Sea 3.5*
3. Milkman 3.5*
4. Warlight (dnf / its not my kind of book but I can see why others would consider it 'good')
5. ----
6. Washington Black 3* (not great but still the best of the books that I found disappointing)
--------------------
7. Normal People 2.5*
8. Mars Room (dnf) / Overstory (dnf)
9. Everything Under 2*
10. Water Cure 2*
11. Mad & Furious City 1*
12. Snap 1*
13. Sabrina (not because I think its bad as I havent read it but because I still think its not eligible)
Books mentioned in this topic
Washington Black (other topics)Milkman (other topics)
Everything Under (other topics)
Washington Black (other topics)
The Long Take (other topics)
More...
Authors mentioned in this topic
Daisy Johnson (other topics)Richard Powers (other topics)
Robin Robertson (other topics)
Anna Burns (other topics)
Belinda Bauer (other topics)
More...









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