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Are you Philip E. Tetlock, author of the books below?
Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock Unmaking the West by Philip E. Tetlock Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics by Philip E. Tetlock Comment être visionnaire by Philip E. Tetlock Behavior, Society, and International Conflict by Philip E. Tetlock Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War by Philip E. Tetlock Experts all the way down.(Wrong by Philip E. Tetlock Unmaking the West by Philip E. Tetlock HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Risk by Harvard Business Review


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