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“The tendency to overestimate reason―often in an exclusive spirit―is particularly harmful. Reason, to my mind, is invaluable as a supplement to the other psycho-intuitive faculties, but never a substitute for them.
Figuratively, reason is a pole that may keep the plant of intuitive thought from growing crooked, but it is not itself either a plant or a valid substitute for a plant.”
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Figuratively, reason is a pole that may keep the plant of intuitive thought from growing crooked, but it is not itself either a plant or a valid substitute for a plant.”
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“This is de Finetti’s way out of the impasse. Probability does not exist.”
― Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment
― Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment
“Probability does not exist.”
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“Only a complete treatment, inspired by a well‐defined point of view and collecting together the different objections and innovations, showing how the whole theory results in coherence in all of its parts, can turn out to be convincing. Only in this way is it possible to avoid the criticisms to which fragmentary expositions easily give rise since, to a person who in looking for a completed theory interprets them within the framework of a different point of view, they can seem to lead unavoidably to contradictions.”
― Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment
― Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment
“Keynes’ ideas were in partial agreement with mine; some years later I was informed of the similar approach that had been adopted by F. P. Ramsey.”
― Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment
― Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment
“I refer to Guido Castelnuovo, Maurice Fréchet and Jerzy Neyman.”
― Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment
― Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment
