James P. O'Shaughnessy > Quotes

“Kahneman also points out that the reason it is so difficult for investors to correct their false beliefs is that they also suffer from hindsight bias, a condition that he described thus: “Psychological evidence indicates people can rarely reconstruct, after the fact, what they thought about the probability of an event before it occurred. Most are honestly deceived when they exaggerate their earlier estimate of the probability that the event would occur . . . because of another hindsight bias, events that the best informed experts did not anticipate often appear almost inevitable after they occur.”
― James P. O'Shaughnessy, What Works on Wall Street: The Classic Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time