Edward Chancellor > Quotes

“After Augustus’ death, the Emperor Tiberius hoarded money, with the result that interest rates rose above the legal limit and a banking crisis erupted in AD 33. Tiberius then decided to lend out the imperial treasure free of interest to patrician families, which brought about an immediate decline in interest rates and an end to the crisis.55 His actions constituted the world’s first experience of quantitative easing.fn9”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“As Bastiat understood, a very low rate of interest may benefit the rich, who have access to credit, more than the poor.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Firms in industries with the greatest increase in concentration enjoyed higher profits. But, as Adam Smith observed, monopolies don’t serve the public good. Rather, monopolies create barriers to entry which discourage the establishment of new firms and innovation.29 Rising industry concentration was associated with higher pay for senior executives, a decline in workers’ bargaining power, and falling investment and R&D. Economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research found that while ‘low interest rates have traditionally been viewed as positive for economic growth … extremely low interest rates may lead to slower growth by increasing market concentration.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Prehistoric peoples probably charged interest on loans of corn and livestock. The association between interest and the fruit of a loan is embedded in ancient languages. Across the ancient world the etymologies of interest derive from the offspring of livestock. The Sumerian word for interest, mas, signifies a kid goat (or lamb).2 The ancient Egyptian equivalent ms means to give birth.3 In ancient Greek interest is tokos, a calf. Among the several Hebrew words for interest are marbit and tarbit, meaning to increase and multiply. The Latin for interest, foenus, connotes fertility, and for money, pecunia, is derived from pecus, a flock. Our word capital comes from caput, a head of cattle. These derivations, claim Sydney Homer and Richard Sylla, imply that interest originated with loans of seeds and of animals. These were loans for productive purposes. The seeds yielded an increase. At harvest time the seed could conveniently be returned with interest. Some part or all of the animal’s progeny could be returned with the animal. We shall never know but we can surmise that the concept of interest in its modern sense arose from just such productive loans.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“As a cynical pamphleteer observed, demands for lowering interest were really designed for the ‘ingrossing all trade, into the hands of a few rich Merchants, who have Money enough of their own to Trade with, to the excluding all young men, that wants it’.13”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Wilson then goes on to provide a new definition of interest: ‘Usurye is also saide to be the price of tyme, or of the delaying or forbearing of moneye.’ Interest has been described in many ways over the years – it’s often referred to as the ‘price of money’. But Wilson knew better. Interest, he said, is the price of time. There is no better definition. In”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“The most encompassing view of interest is contained in the notion of interest as the ‘time value of money’ or, simply, as the price of time.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Summers also claimed that technology was reducing the demand for capital. Digital businesses, such as Facebook and Google, had established dominant global franchises with relatively little invested capital and small workforces. In his book The Zero Marginal Cost Society (2014), the social theorist Jeremy Rifkin heralded the passing of traditional capitalism.16 If the Old Economy was marked by scarcity and declining marginal returns, Rikfin argued that the New Economy was characterized by zero marginal costs, increasing returns to scale and capital-lite ‘sharing’ apps (such as Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, etc.). The demand for capital and interest rates, he said, were set to fall in this ‘economy of abundance’. There was some evidence to support Rifkin’s claims. The balance sheets of US companies showed they were using fewer fixed assets (factories, plant, equipment, etc.) and reporting more ‘intangibles’ – namely, assets derived from patents, intellectual property and merger premiums. In much of the rest of the world, however, the demand for old-fashioned capital remained as strong as ever. After the turn of the century, the developing world exhibited a voracious appetite for industrial commodities that required massive mining investment. China embarked on what was probably the greatest investment boom in history. Before and after 2008, global energy consumption rose steadily. The world’s total investment (relative to GDP) remained in line with its historical average.17 Rifkin’s ‘economy of abundance’ remained a tantalizing speculation.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“This book is about the role of interest in a modern economy. It was inspired by a Bastiat-like conviction that ultra-low interest rates were contributing to many of our current woes, whether the collapse of productivity growth, unaffordable housing, rising inequality, the loss of market competition or financial fragility. Ultra-low rates also seemed to play some role in the resurgence of populism as Sumner’s Forgotten Man started to lose patience.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Our earth is degenerate in these latter days: bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents; every man wants to write a book, and the end of the world is evidently approaching. Assyrian tablet, c. 2,800 BC”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“If interest rates are kept below their natural level, misguided investments occur: too much time is used in production, or, put another way, the investment returns don’t justify the initial outlay. ‘Malinvestment’, to use a term popularized by Austrian economists, comes in many shapes and sizes. It might involve some expensive white-elephant project, such as constructing a tunnel under the sea, or a pie-in-the-sky technology scheme with no serious prospect of ever turning a profit.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“The herd-like behaviour of companies and their managements never loses its power to astound. All too often, when one company decides that buybacks are the thing to do, then its competitors will play the game too. By the same token, capital raising (secondary issues) often appears at the same time among multiple companies in the same industry. One reason they act together is that no company wants to see competitors gain a funding advantage.”
― Edward Chancellor, Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15

“There are numerous examples of successful cultures among our portfolio companies: the empowerment of branch managers that promotes responsible banking at Sweden’s Svenska Handelsbanken, for instance. Reckitt Benckiser, another holding, fosters an entrepreneurial spirit among its senior managers. Yet even if a strong culture is instilled in a company, it can take many years for its full effects to play out. That may be beyond Wall Street’s limited investment horizon. Long-term investors, however, would be wise to take heed.”
― Edward Chancellor, Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15

“Bagehot penned an editorial (The Economist, 23 November 1867) ‘On the Dangers of Lending to Semi-Civilised Countries’. The borrower under scrutiny was Egypt. It was not a question of that country’s great resources or agricultural fertility. Rather, what is required for the repayment of foreign debts, wrote Bagehot, is ‘a continuous polity; a fixed political morality; and a constant possession of money’. Egypt did not possess these qualities. The editorial concluded starkly: ‘We lend to countries whose condition we do not know, and whose want of civilisation we do not consider, and, therefore, we lose our money.’66”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Mary, to bee a tyme seller, to gayne for dayes, monethes and years, and to make the sune shyninge, which God sendeth so freely unto us, to be the frute of your occupiying, and to make mony of mony for the very acte of lending – these dealings I do saye, are most abominable in the sight of God and man.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“The longer one owns the shares, however, the more important the firm’s underlying economics will be to performance results. Long-term investors therefore seek answers with shelf life. What is relevant today may need to be relevant in ten years’ time if the investor is to continue owning the shares. Information with a long shelf life is far more valuable than advance knowledge of next quarter’s earnings. We seek insights consistent with our holding period. These principally relate to capital allocation, which can be gleaned from examining the company’s advertising, marketing, research and development spending, capital expenditures, debt levels, share repurchase/ issuance, mergers and acquisitions and so forth.”
― Edward Chancellor, Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15

“History, it is said, is written by the victors. In the late 1920s, Hayek claimed that monetary policy had taken the wrong course and predicted a deflationary bust. Irving Fisher, on the other hand, saw nothing wrong at the time with either America’s economy or its monetary policy, famously opining in the summer of 1929 that US stocks had reached a ‘permanently high plateau’. If accuracy of prediction is what matters for economic theory, as Milton Friedman later claimed, then Hayek’s interpretation should have become the received wisdom of his profession. Yet the Austrian’s interpretation of the 1920s and its aftermath has been more or less air-brushed from the history books, while Fisher’s monetarist view has become received wisdom.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Easy money is the great cause of over-borrowing. When an investor thinks he can make over 100 per cent per annum by borrowing at 6 per cent, he will be tempted to borrow, and to invest or speculate with borrowed money.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Our historical tendency to be overweight the Nordic stock markets has mostly been influenced by the perceived quality of Nordic management teams. Generally speaking, Nordic managers have been able to articulate their case clearly and apply a degree of focus that is not always the case elsewhere in Europe. One can also discern a high degree of adaptability. Scandinavian companies are not just open to foreign excursions. It was striking to note on a recent trip just how many of the large and successful companies are run by foreigners. A Belgian is head of Atlas Copco, a Scot runs SKF, and Nokia and Electrolux have recently recruited American bosses. This openness to outsiders stands in contrast to recent developments in Southern Europe, where Italy and France are engaged in a race to the bottom to redefine strategic industries for protectionist purposes.”
― Edward Chancellor, Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15

“The arch-capitalist began his working life as a bond trader at Greedspin in New York in the 1960s. He rose to become one of the firm’s most successful M& A advisers during the 1980s and 1990s. His role in the disastrous merger of General Chocolate and ByteBack in 2000 led to his departure in 2004, following an official investigation into irregular practices. “I have no regrets about that deal. For General Chocolate, it was a case of either eat or be eaten.” The sommelier arrives with the red wine, quickly followed by the main course. Churn impales his meat, cuts it into squares and dispatches it to his molars. His songbird side order–a dish which is now banned in the EU on animal rights grounds–is skewered and consumed, beak-to-tail, in a single mouthful. “Do you know, they drown it alive in Armangac!” he exclaims as he noisily munches through the bones. Establishing a pattern which was to be repeated, Churn bounced back from the General Chocolate fiasco in a new guise. In 2005, he re-emerged as the Chairman of RearView Capital Partners, the private equity firm, at a time when huge sums were raised and invested at the peak of the credit bubble. “I have always tried to find the hot areas of the market where I can facilitate the flow of money. In our business, flows mean fees. It’s really very simple.”
― Edward Chancellor, Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15

“By placing too low a discount on the future earnings of companies, investors ended up paying too much. The discounting error was widely acknowledged at the time. In early 1928, Moody’s Investors Services declared that stock prices had ‘over-discounted anticipated progress’.30 After the crash, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd wrote in their book Security Analysis that the late 1920s witnessed ‘a transfer of emphasis [in the valuation of stocks] from current income to future income and hence inevitably to future enhancement of principal value’.31 Or, as the market analyst Max Winkler memorably described: ‘The imagination of our investing public was greatly heightened by the discovery of a new phrase: discounting the future. However, a careful examination of quotations of many issues revealed that not only the future, but even the hereafter, was being discounted.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“When money is lent on a contract to receive … [there is] an increase by way of compensation for the use; which is generally called interest by those who think it lawful, and usury by those who do not. Sir William Blackstone, Commentaries on the Laws of England, 1765”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Borio cast aside the money veil to reveal a world of asset price bubbles, financial cycles, and credit booms and busts: ‘Think monetary! Modelling the financial cycle correctly … requires recognising fully the fundamental monetary nature of our economies,’ was Borio’s clarion call.7 The financial system, he asserted, doesn’t just allocate resources, it generates purchasing power. It has a life of its own. Finance and macroeconomics are ‘inextricably linked’. We inhabit a looking-glass world. Finance does not mirror reality, but acts upon it.fn2 Economics without finance, said Borio, is like Hamlet without the prince.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Homer and Sylla, History of Interest Rates, p. 191.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“While the case for long-term investment has tended to centre around simple mathematical advantages such as reduced (frictional) costs and fewer decisions leading (hopefully) to fewer mistakes, the real advantage to this approach, in our opinion, comes from asking more valuable questions. The short-term investor asks questions in the hope of gleaning clues to near-term outcomes: relating typically to operating margins, earnings per share and revenue trends over the next quarter, for example. Such information is relevant for the briefest period and only has value if it is correct, incremental, and overwhelms other pieces of information. Even when accurate, the value of the information is likely to be modest, say, a few percentage points in performance. In order to build a viable, economically important track record, the short-term investor may need to perform this trick many thousands of times in a career and/ or employ large amounts of financial leverage to exploit marginal opportunities. And let’s face it, the competition for such investment snippets is ferocious. This competition is fed by the investment banks. Wall Street relies heavily on promoting client myopia to earn its crust. Why”
― Edward Chancellor, Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15

“The fact is that one person’s growth stock is another’s value stock. Recently, the investment data company Lipper has reported that Citigroup, AIG and IBM are among the top 15 mutual fund holdings in both the large company “value” and “growth” categories. This brings us to our next point, which perhaps best explains why Marathon should never be labelled as a pure value investor. Our capital cycle process examines the effects of the creative and destructive forces of capitalism over time. A growth stock usually becomes a value stock after excess capital, lured in by large current profitability, brings about a decline in returns. When this becomes extreme, as was the case during the technology bubble, the resultant bust can turn growth stocks into value stocks almost overnight. The telecoms sector provides”
― Edward Chancellor, Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15

“Moneylenders have always received a bad press. Over the centuries all – well, nearly all – the greatest minds have been aligned against them. Aristotle, Plato, St Augustine, Thomas Aquinas, Dante, Luther and Shakespeare have each had a go at the wretched usurer. Criticism has come from the left and from the right. Marx detested interest, but then so did Hitler. A few years ago, the Archbishop of Canterbury launched an attack on a UK payday lending firm, which he believed took advantage of the needy and desperate. ‘The War on Wonga’ (the name of the financial firm) is a campaign without end. Many economists, in particular the experts on inequality, side with the angels. The taking of interest is depicted as robbing the weak and the needy. What’s more, by demanding back more than has been given, the usurer stands accused of injustice.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“As the modern era came into being, the avarice of the usurer was supplanted by interest in the broader and more abstract sense of a share or stake. This new concept of interest was ethically wide-ranging: it ‘came to cover virtually the entire range of human actions, from the narrowly self-centered to the sacrificially altruistic, and from the prudently calculated to the passionately compulsive’.49 The seventeenth-century English statesman and philosopher Lord Shaftesbury summed up the new thinking with his comment that ‘Interest governs the World.’50 In his Fable of the Bees (1714), Bernard Mandeville exposed the paradox at the heart of the modern world, namely that private vices brought public benefits. Adam Smith incorporated Mandeville’s wicked insights into his political economy. In The Wealth of Nations, Smith describes the individual as one who ‘By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it.’51 A similar thought is expressed in another famous line, in which Smith writes that ‘It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.’ The spirit of capitalism was transmitted across networks of credit that connected lenders and borrowers through bonds of mutual self-interest.52 Daniel Defoe described credit as a ‘stock’, synonymous with capital, while the French in Defoe’s day referred to capital as ‘interest’, in the sense of taking a stake.fn6 From a technical viewpoint, capital consists of a stream of future income discounted to its present value. Without interest, there can be no capital. Without capital, no capitalism. Turgot, a contemporary of Adam Smith’s, understood this very well: ‘the capitalist lender of money,’ he wrote, ‘ought to be considered as a dealer in a commodity which is absolutely necessary for the production of wealth, and which cannot be at too low a price.’53 (Turgot exaggerated. As we shall see, interest at ‘too low a price’ is the source of many evils.)”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Low interest rates fed the demand for credit, while financial innovation increased its supply.”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest

“Buybacks: How the Game Works Imagine a company – let’s call it FinEng Corp – with sales of $1 billion and a 5 per cent profit margin. The $50 million of profits are taxed at a 30 per cent rate. The company has 500 million shares outstanding and shareholders’ equity of $500 million. The shares trade at 15 times earnings. The corporate incentive plan provides senior executives with 50 million stock options, which strike at the current market price. At this point, FinEng has no”
― Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest