Dan Levy > Quotes

“If you focus on people’s shortcomings, you’ll always be disappointed”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Thinking probabilistically about the world involves three distinct elements: 1)    Understanding what these subjective probabilities actually mean (as we saw above), 2)    Assigning probabilities to many things (events, beliefs, etc.) in our lives, to help us better understand the world around us and make better decisions, and 3)    Updating these probabilities appropriately when relevant new information comes in.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“famous saying among policy analysts is “let me pick your options, and I will make the decision for you,” which illustrates the importance of keeping an eye out for a better option.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Practice asynchronous reciprocity”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“For example, the value of fertilizer for a farmer is likely to be higher if other inputs (seeds, irrigation, farming practices, etc.) are available. The value of a blackboard in a school will depend on the availability of other school inputs (such as chalk, teachers, classrooms, etc.). In economics terms, the situations described above exhibit positive cross-partial derivatives.[80] In fact, when Richard teaches this maxim to his students, he refers to it as “capitalize on positive cross partial derivatives,” a much more technical formulation intended to be playful and memorable.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight you need to move forward. More generally, make a problem as simple as possible without losing its essence – but no simpler. The world is full of uncertainty, much more than you think. Almost every important decision you make will be in the face of uncertainty. Therefore, learning to think probabilistically (assessing subjective probabilities of various scenarios and updating these probabilities with new information) is a critical life skill. Because of uncertainty, some good decisions will result in poor outcomes. In fact, for some decisions there are no good outcomes. Your job will be to choose the option likely to lead to the least bad outcome. Also, resist the tendency to dislike more the errors resulting from your actions (errors of commission) than the errors resulting from your inactions (errors of omission). These two types of errors are equally bad; what matters is their consequences, not their source.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Often times, I find myself or others around me making decisions based on absolutes instead of thinking marginally. Are those extra five hours of work worth the extra money when compared to spending an extra five hours with family? Of course, having a job and earning a decent living are good things, but usually we forget to ask ourselves whether that additional time spent doing such and such is worthwhile”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“1 – Thinking Straight Maxim 1 - When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, go to an extreme case Maxim 2 - When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, go to a simple case Maxim 3 – Don’t take refuge in complexity Maxim 4 - When trying to understand a complex real-world situation, think of an everyday analogue 2 – Tackling Uncertainty Maxim 5 - The world is much more uncertain than you think Maxim 6 - Think probabilistically about the world Maxim 7 - Uncertainty is the friend of the status quo 3 – Making Decisions Maxim 8 - Good decisions sometimes have poor outcomes Maxim 9 - Some good decisions have a high probability of a bad outcome Maxim 10 - Errors of commission should be weighted the same as errors of omission Maxim 11 - Don’t be limited by the options you have in front of you Maxim 12 - Information is only valuable if it can change your decision 4 – Understanding Policy Maxim 13 - Long division is the most important tool for policy analysis Maxim 14 - Elasticities are a powerful tool for understanding many important things in life Maxim 15 - Heterogeneity in the population explains many phenomena Maxim 16 - Capitalize on complementarities”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Maxim 18 Eliminate regret”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“The sunk cost fallacy occurs when you use the fact that you have previously invested resources (time, money or effort) on an activity to justify further investment in the activity.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Maxim 2 When you are having trouble getting your
thinking straight, go to a simple case”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Maxim 16 Capitalize on complementarities”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Accepting that everything is effectively uncertain and that my thoughts, hopes, and actions can at best indirectly influence the world by influencing probability distributions: this has brought me a kind of peace through acceptance, and a greater mastery over the world around me.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Maxim 11 Don’t be limited by the options
you have in front of you”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“At around 5:00 pm, after the results came back, the surgeon said, “I believe your mother has appendicitis or a tumor. However, her white blood count is lower than what we typically see for appendicitis, and palpating her abdomen, it does not feel like a tumor. I would like to keep her here until tomorrow so we can monitor her symptoms. We will then know a lot more.” Richard responded: “I presume that in either case you will operate, is that correct?” “Yes.” “Then, shouldn’t you operate now, and bring both sets of tools?”[62] The surgeon proceeded to operate that evening. It turned out that Richard’s mother had a leaky appendix, and peritonitis (infection in the abdomen). Waiting another day would have been dangerous. The doctor, a man in his fifties and a faculty member at Harvard Medical School, observed that no one had ever taught him “Don’t wait for information if it won’t change your decision.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“The most important maxim Richard taught me is one I never heard him pronounce but always saw him practice: engage with people from different fields, interests, mindsets, countries, and ages.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“The starkest recent illustration of the world as a surprisingly uncertain place, for most people other than experts and science fiction fans, is COVID-19. At the beginning of 2020, few of us considered the possibility, however remote, that our lives and those of everyone in the planet would be upended by a global pandemic.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“That season our baseball team won the championship for 11-year-old boys in their division of the Newton, Massachusetts, Little League.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Strive to make the right decision; afterwards you’ll make your decision right”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Maxim 7 Uncertainty is the friend of the status quo”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Maxim 4 When trying to understand a complex real-world situation, think of an everyday analogue”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Maxim 13 Long division is the most important tool
for policy analysis”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“The idea of assigning probabilities to events may strike you as impossible. Many of Richard’s students, friends, and colleagues have made this same claim of impossibility. But after thinking about it and practicing, many think this is the most valuable lesson he ever imparted.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“From that day on I stopped comparing myself to my peers and started to actively take joy in the success of others. Not only has this made me a happier person in my professional life, but also in my personal interactions. Indeed, I have found that rejecting envy helps you appreciate others more, and helps build lasting friendships and relationships. I hope that my friends and family know that I’m their biggest cheerleader and I always will be, thanks to Richard.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“What can I do to control an outcome? That’s the wrong question. What can I do to influence the odds? Now that’s productive. That I can work with – in my life and in my job.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Maxim 19 Make pleasure-enhancing decisions long in advance, to increase the utility of anticipation”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“If we are constantly measuring our self-worth relative to the performance of those around us, we will always feel we fall short.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“You have fallen victim to this fallacy if you have ever followed through with plans to go to the theater just because you already purchased the tickets (even though the weather is foul and the play has received poor reviews). Or you hold on to a bad investment (or even worse, put in additional money) because you had already made the investment. Or you continue a personal relationship, though the relationship has soured, just because the relationship has persisted many years.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Thinking probabilistically can be hard. As Howard Kunreuther, emeritus professor and codirector of Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, puts it: “I now believe that even if people understand probability theory, it is challenging to learn how to apply these concepts when making decisions, particularly when dealing with extreme events, such as natural disasters, few people think probabilistically when deciding whether to protect themselves against future losses.”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser

“Richard tells about how two of his other major mentors, Thomas Schelling and Kenneth Arrow (both Nobel Prize winners), sought simplicity. Schelling, for example, regularly employed everyday and easily grasped examples, such as a parent negotiating with a child, as an analogy to a much more complex situation, such as an international negotiation. A Schelling lecture often moved from a simple example, say a stop sign, to a riff on a dozen critical issues that involved a metaphorical stop sign. One element of Arrow’s genius was to see, and then distill, simple principles, where others saw only murky complexities.[11]”
― Dan Levy, Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser