Stephen Webb > Quotes

“Believing the world is calm because we have never seen it otherwise is like taking the attitude of a man who jumps off the top of a tall building and figures that, since 29 of the 30 floors have passed without incident, he is going to be okay.”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Fifty Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

“It is no good to try to stop knowledge from going forward. Ignorance is never better than knowledge. Enrico Fermi”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

“The fact that life arose early here gives us little confidence in the belief that life must be common elsewhere. It’s important to emphasize the following point: the analysis doesn’t show that life is rare. “Life is common” remains our best guess position; it’s just that we can’t be confident of the position.”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

“The probability that Monty opens door B if the prize is behind door B is: P(Monty opens B|B) = 0. The probability that Monty opens door B if the prize is behind door C is: P(Monty opens B|C) = 1. We can now calculate the probability that Monty opens door B: P(A) × P(Monty opens B|A) + P(B) × P(Monty opens B|B) + P(C) × P(Monty opens B|C) = . Finally, apply Bayes theorem: P(A|Monty opens B) = . P(C|Monty opens B) = . In plain English: if you happen to choose door A and Monty opens door B to reveal a lemon then the probability of the Bugatti being behind door C is . If you ever find yourself in this”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

“Even the human body contains many more microbial cells than it does human cells; bacteria swarm all over our skin and in our gut (and in many cases are necessary for good health).”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

“Can we conclude from Earth’s example that the probability of abiogenesis is unlikely to be small—and thus that life is likely to be common in the universe? I have to admit that for a long time I believed this to be almost certainly the case,”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

“one of the deep mysteries of the origin of life is the almost indecent haste with which it arose on Earth.”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

“Lee Smolin estimates the probability of picking a set of random parameters that generate a universe favorable to life is 1-in-10229.”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Fifty Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

“The Prokaryote-Eukaryote Transition is Rare”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life

“Eukaryotes evolve morphological responses to environmental challenges—in other words, they develop new body shapes and body parts—which leads to a variety and freshness that is absent in the prokaryotes.”
― Stephen Webb, If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?: Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life