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Gary Smith
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“During the dot-com bubble, most people did not use a persuasive theory to gauge whether stock prices were too high, too low, or just right. Instead, as they watched stock prices go up, they invented explanations to rationalize what was happening. They talked about Moore’s Law, smart kids, and Alan Greenspan. Data without theory.”
― Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
― Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
“Our inherited desire to explain what we see fuels two kinds of cognitive errors. First, we are too easily seduced by patterns and by the theories that explain them. Second, we latch onto data that support our theories and discount contradicting evidence. We believe stories simply because they are consistent with the patterns we observe and, once we have a story, we are reluctant to let it go.”
― Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
― Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
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