93 books
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2 voters
“
With Bayesian networks, we had taught machines to think in shades of grey, and this was an important step toward humanlike thinking. But we still couldn't teach machines to understand causes and effects. We couldn't explain to a computer why turning the dial of a barometer won't cause rain.... Without the ability to envision alternate realities and contrast them with the currently existing reality, a machine...cannot answer the most basic question that makes us human: "Why?
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― The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect
― The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect
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But the point is one of probability: we all have a lifetime’s experience of the laws of nature not being broken, and we also have a lifetime’s experience of people saying things that are not true. If someone says, “I saw a dead man come back to life,” most of us would consider it more likely that that someone is wrong, or lying, than that they actually saw a dead man come back to life. So, says Hume, we should ignore that testimony as irrelevant.
But Price, newly armed with Bayes’ theorem, wante
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