Probability


Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder
Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability with Solutions (Dover Books on Mathematics)
Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Volume 1
Introduction to Probability
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
A First Course in Probability
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
The combination of Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo has been called "arguably the most powerful mechanism ever created for processing data and knowledge." Almost instantaneously MCMC and Gibbs sampling changed statisticians' entire method of attacking problems. In the words of Thomas Kuhn, it was a paradigm shift. MCMC solved real problems, used computer algorithms instead of theorems, and led statisticians and scientists into a worked where "exact" meant "simulated" and repetitive computer op ...more
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

Christiaan Huygens
I believe that we do not know anything for certain, but everything probably.
Christiaan Huygens, Oeuvres Complètes

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