Probability


Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder
Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability with Solutions (Dover Books on Mathematics)
Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Volume 1
A First Course in Probability
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Introduction to Probability
Aristotle
A likely impossibility is always preferable to an unconvincing possibility. The story should never be made up of improbable incidents; there should be nothing of the sort in it.
Aristotle, Poetics

There is no such thing as political science, but there are tenancies so strong that they might as well be called laws of nature.
Jeff Greenfield, Then Everything Changed: Stunning Alternate Histories of American Politics: JFK, RFK, Carter, Ford, Reagan

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