“Think of what it means to doubt the 'naturalness' of weather. We have never been sure what it would do, but we could be fairly sure of what it would not do, on average and over a period. Given a windy winter like this one, we could count on 'fickle' nature not to do it too often or too catastrophically. But supposing we lost that assurance: supposing, after sixteen storms since Christmas, we had no good reason for trusting that there would not be sixty more?”