World, Writing, Wealth discussion

Will it be as serious?
Is anyone else watching Netflix’s eerily timed Pandemic?
Does anyone else play Plague Inc?
I would love to know what others are thinking.

The trouble is we don't have reliable information - because it's happening in China.

What's the Basic Reproduction Number R0? - I.e. if 1 person has it, how many others are likely to catch it from them. We don't know how contagious this thing is.

REF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_r...

What's the lethality of it? I.e. if 100 people catch it - how many will die?

Are people contagious while asymtomatic? (The current thinking is yes).

How long from catching it does it take to become symptomatic? (Currently 1 to 14 days).

How long does the illness last before you die or recover?

The second big issue is that this happened on the eve of the Chinese New Year when people travel a lot - facilitating the spread of the disease.

The bottom line (and I sincerely hope I'm wrong) but this could be a mammoth issue for the world within a few weeks.

Yes, this might or might not be a problem. Obviously, at the moment, we have fairly scant information, however, given that the most recent information suggests that people may be infectious in the up to two week incubation period, then if that turns out to be correct, then it's pretty well a given that the virus has escaped containment.

I agree, Leonie.

I saw Pandemic on Netflix and was less than impressed. I work in emergency management and am watching the issue. This seems to spreading fast, but we shall see. This could be bad, or not. I am waiting to see how virulent it is and if it becomes more as time moves.

I guess that Captain Trips is Chinese.

CDC: 110 suspected coronavirus cases in US under investigation, number 'will only increase'

https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-11...

The Stand reference, nice.

Scary that it's asymptomatic for up to 2 weeks. That means that taking the temperature of people at airports is a futile effort to contain the disease. Back when the bird flu was spreading, I bought these really good face masks that I never used. I still have them, though, so that's good, I guess. How effective are the face masks at preventing infection?

Dr David Carrington, of St George’s, University of London, told BBC News that “routine surgical masks for the public are not an effective protection against viruses or bacteria carried in the air”, because they were too loose, had no air filter and left the eyes exposed.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2...

Keep your distance then...

So, airborne, transmissable while asymptomatic, highly contagious, reasonable high lethality 3+% most likely higher.

I think this is dangerous and the Chinese authorities are beginning to panic.

It’s worth a bit of panic, so long as it’s motivated productive panic. This looks to be a culling - the old, the very young, the immunocompromised (is that one word?), anyone having a weak month. But with so long inside so many varied bodies, with varied environments...

As far as reliable information goes, there are two problems. The first is because it can be without symptoms for two weeks the outbreak is still young and we cannot guess the final probabilities of mortality as yet.

There is a second problem that is political. Apparently there are levels of government, let us say city, provincial, national, and the levels have to report upwards when certain numbers are triggered. This tends to encourage under-reporting, at least initially, so as to keep higher-level officials off their backs. If they misguess the seriousness, though, this comes back to bite them.

As for face masks, I gather this virus is smaller than the filtering ability of most face masks, so they are not going to be a lot of help. My guess is wetting the face mask and changing frequently would help. Breathing through some filter impregnated with wet potassium permanganate would be better.

I just booked a flight to a near asia destination for the 10th to 12th Feb.

I'll pull the flight if this situation continues to explode.

It will get worse before it gets better. The long incubation period makes it very difficult to contain.

Oh Graeme, that sounds like a bad idea. Is it a vacation away from the fire trauma?

I'm a goner, then, with my face mask, if it comes to the US. Gotta stock up on supplies if that happens and stay inside.

Lena wrote: "Oh Graeme, that sounds like a bad idea. Is it a vacation away from the fire trauma?"

Work related (@Darwin).

If things get worse, I'll pull the plug and reschedule the activity. For most of my work, I can work from home, and I'm happy to stay there.

Lena wrote: "
Will it be as serious?
Is anyone else watching Netflix’s eerily timed Pandemic.
Does anyone else play Plague Inc?
I would love to know what others are thinking."

Won't be surprised seeing further quarantined cities and countries with schools and public places shut down, if and until we find out specifics and ways to contain, prevent and treat the disease. Hope the death toll won't be huge. On the other hand, a hysteria wouldn't be very helpful

Scout wrote: "I'm a goner, then, with my face mask, if it comes to the US. Gotta stock up on supplies if that happens and stay inside."

There is already cases here in the U.S. Scout. You might want to go get some masks.

There are confirmed cases here in the U.S. and major airports are screening people coming from China. Also the U.S. is warning people not to travel to China. Here is a link from CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/health...

NBC news link:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/co...

Unless the masks have exceptional filtering ability, which makes breathing difficult, they will not be of much help because the virus is too small. They will filter out sneeze droplets, but they can hit the eyes.

Are flights still flying out of Wuhan?

Looks like it.

https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight...

and

Visually, in real time. https://www.flightradar24.com/29.57,1...

Why haven't flights been cancelled out of Wuhan (let alone China)?

Wow, that’s way more than charter evacuation.

Graeme wrote: "Why haven't flights been cancelled out of Wuhan (let alone China)? ..."

I think they are suspended for the time being. I believe Wuhan is in lock down as are a few other cities.

Yeah. Reports are that the city is quarantined yet the airport seems operational.

It seems to be conflicting reports of being closed or open but no flights. There seems to be at least one plane heading to Ontario with Americans on it.

The linked video is a South African and an American who lived and worked in China talking about the outbreak. Their videos have been a help to me in understanding China.

https://youtu.be/lk5XkhUKMDM

I walked past a cafe this morning while walking my dog. The local mainstream press was reporting the issue with regards to some local school students being told to stay home if they'd recently traveled to china.

The local authorities pinged the schools and advised that no one is infectious without also having symptoms.

Which is in direct contradiction to other reports that the virus is infectious prior to symptoms showing up.

Confusion reigns.

I saw something about Aussie victims being sent to Christmas Island, sounds too nice to actually be so, which is also where they keep immigration detainees.

https://torontosun.com/news/local-new...

Noting that it took months for SARS to get to these numbers.

This virus is moving faster than SARS.

We have capacity to quarantine people in hospitals and there are inadequate medical facilities on Christmas island. Sending patients to CI would be akin to a death sentence...

That claim sounds outlandish to me.

Graeme wrote: "https://torontosun.com/news/local-new..."

Oh that was a bad call.

It does sound outlandish. Of course Australia has facilities for quarantine.

Hi Lena.

I fear that the R0 for coronavirus is actually higher than that graphic.

Lethality is still TBD.

You’re probably right. I’m finally reading more calls for 14 day quarantine. The US evacuation flight has been diverted to land at a military base.

Ah... it seems the Christmas Island thing is real.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

Australians evacuated from Wuhan and quarantined on Christmas Island will be asked to pay some or all of the costs of their transport and quarantine.

That’s cold.

Both New Zealand and Australians coming from Wuhan will be going to Christmas Island. As to if/when they can leave...

As to whether the evacuated Australians from Wuhan could leave the detention centre, health minister Greg Hunt said: “I’ll leave it to home affairs.”

Well, I stand corrected.

I despair about our government sometimes. Christmas Island? It's a detention centre, not a hospital...and a detention centre is bad enough.

Having said that, we have friends who live there.