World, Writing, Wealth discussion

It now appears the Syrian army is giving free passes to the rebels, as happened in Afghanistan for the Taliban, which, if true, means Assad should get out of there while he can.

Apart from the female half of the Syrian population, most get what they want. Israel and the US get rid of Assad, ISIL (with new letters) get their state, Syria probably gets its oil fields back (Is the US really going to defend east of Deir-ez-Zor and bomb any of the new country's military?) while Turkey gets a good force to deal within those troublesome Kurds on its southern border. Iran will have no way of supporting Hezbollah. And we get a second fundamentalist state. What more could anyone wnat (part from the Syrian women?)

Ian, no doubt at all the Biden regime are behind this. GB and Israel too. All working on behalf of the shadowy forces who currently control the West.

The British and Israeli politicians following these orders must be out of their minds. If Assad goes, Israel gets ultra-extremist Islamists as its next door neighbour. Britain gets another million refugees stopping in our finest hotels.

Hopefully, Saint Donald will arrive in time to save the day. In the meantime, it's left to Russia to try and prop up Assad.

I doubt anything can prop up Assad. If the army is against him, this will fold quickly, e.g. the Taliban. Russia will be more interested in protecting its own assets and getting out. It loses its Med. port, which is a gain to Biden. I think it will be over in a week or so.

Then the West has to decide what to do about another ISIL.

Russia cannot afford to lose that port. Putin will escalate.

Surely, nobody’s gonna cry about butcher assad, while rebels can be dangerous. I think i might’ve seen Biden and Starmer in their ranks on the footage

Nik, I love you but you're not thinking straight. We're not talking about some disparate group of rebels. It is not possible for such a group to hold Syria.

These guys are the hardest of hardcore 'Islamists', butchers perverting the name of a noble religion. Evil rudewords stuck in the darkest of the dark ages. They make your current enemies look like cuddly toys off a cartoon. As a neighbour, Assad resembles Ned Flanders (off The Simpsons) compared to them.

And because I look beyond simplistic, short-term soundbites, and care about my own country, I see what's coming for us if Assad falls. Just like when the imbeciles got rid of Saddam and Gadaffi, we can now expect a flood of refugees coming north west.

We don't have the luxury of a Saint Donald in Western Europe. We've got Scholz, Micron and f...blinking Starmer. They will welcome them and we will sink.

I notice Saint Donald is saying it's not the US's fight. A wise man. A patriot. He wants the US out of the way, so Russia can exert its influence.

I hope J is right and that Russia stands firm. For Syria's, Israel's and Europe's sake, she needs to help Assad hold the line.

Man, I just love how you place even a cow’s fart in remote part of China on the West.
Butchers vs butchers? Why should I care? And why should I make do with the least evil 👿, if it’s evil? I’m sure there could be decent rulers in Syria.
Hope Iran will return to normality soon. So many people there are oppressed by ayatollahs.
Refugees? You don’t have to let them stay indefinitely or you can enforce a safe zone in Syria

I love Britain. I love the West. I simply acknowledge reality and Realpolitik.

I acknowledge that these people have been slaughtering each other for a millennium over a succession disagreement in which both claimants ultimately became Caliph in turn.

The golden rule of Middle Eastern politics...

If the despot wears a cheap suit or military uniform, keep your eye on him but back him. Because the alternative is always an animal, dressed in a robe and wearing a scimitar.

Beau wrote: "The golden rule of Middle Eastern politics...

If the despot wears a cheap suit or military uniform, keep your eye on him but back him. Because the alternative is always an animal, dressed in a rob..."

In other words, back whichever one shops on Savile Row?

No. Lower East Manhatten - Papaphilly's tailors.

Assad did his post-graduate studies in London.

Then he must've shopped at Topman, not Saville Row.

Beau might be backing Assad, but even he doesn't regard Assad as a 'dresser'.

So... The quality of a despot's tailor matters in Realpolitik?

That’s it, no more assad. Despite Ian’s cordiality, I bet he chose a traditional despot’s asylum - moscow once his plane disappeared from the radars. We might have new, not very peaceful neighbors

Nik, you got what you wanted. So far all Israel has wanted was to get rid of Assad. There was never any indication of what you wanted to replace him, or how to engineer it.

The thing about Assad, and Saddam, was that for a long time Syrians could prosper as long as they obeyed the regime. You may think Assad was brutal to opposition, but it was par for the course in that part of the world, and anyway what Israel is doing to opposition in Gaza is hardly benevolent. The point was, political opposition was dealt with, BUT secular life was possible. Now the West has removed the only two secular Moslem states and we will have religious purity or else. Well done, West.

As for Assad going to Moscow, if he did, why not? He had to go somewhere where he would be left alone.

Israel most certainly had nothing to do with fall of assad’ s regime and I doubt the West had. Simply not interesting, nothing there. If anything, assad was “comfortable”. What’s evident is that assad’s prime backers - putler and ayatollah deserted him, weakened enough not to be able to mount serious support.
As of what’s gonna happen - too early to evaluate, but we put our divisions ready at Syrian border, if they get funny ideas. Opposed to assad’s troops, we will fight

Latest news indicate that assad might’ve met prigozhin or maybe a plane crash, if there was one, was for decoy

When you think about it, the Palestinians caused Assad's regime to collapse. Hamas poked Israel. The Israelis went scorched Earth on them and all their friends, including Hezbollah. Hezbollah lost so much material and personnel that they could no longer prop up Assad.

Funny.

The question remains. Have we reached the end of this line of dominos?

Hezbollah will regroup in Lebanon. They will most likely try to make up face by attacking Israel. They will likely overreach and may well be annihilated.

Iran will want to push Hezbollah to damage Israel. But they may also want to reign them in to preserve those forces. This second impulse may save Hezbollah from themselves.

In Syria, the Russians, Americans, Turks, and Kurds are still in play.

Completely agree with your last post, Ian. You are one of my favourite geopolitical analysts. With the exception of Islamic extremists, this is terrible news for everyone.

BBC has interviews with glamorous middle-class Syrians, celebrating their new-found 'freedom'. Oh dear. These guys won't be living in Damascus this time next year. They'll be living in Dortmund and Derby, where the locals will be forced to celebrate their arrival because not doing so means you're a 'wacist'.

That’s a sound and connected chain of events, J. Add to this that it was putler, who saved asado few years ago and who had nothing to allocate to this theater 🎭 this time around.

Nik doubts the West had anyhting to do with Assad's fall. OK Nik - the rebels attacked with overwhelming mechanized infantry. Where did they get the equipment from? Who gave the previous round of rebels their equipment. Yeah, the Saudis, but who supplied them, knowing where it was going. Sure, it was destined for "progressive anti-Assad rebels" but you think they could keep the stuff from being taken by ISIL?

I notice the only concern Nik has shown is for the northern border. That will be safe. The new ISIL will have much bigger things to do than bother about Israel. None of them will be any good for many others in the region.

J. wrote: "When you think about it, the Palestinians caused Assad's regime to collapse. Hamas poked Israel. The Israelis went scorched Earth on them and all their friends, including Hezbollah. Hezbollah lost ..."

What you must also realize is the Israeli air force was constantly bombing Syria and nobody stopped them.

I tink Russia will withdraw everything it can in a more orderly fashion that the US managed in Afghanistan, even though it has a much harder job. They will be useful in Ukraine. But we have not reached the end of this line of dominos. Russia was a restraining force. With it gone, ISIL has no air cover problem (unless Israel decides to continue random bombing) so first it can focus on the Kurds. Since most of its equipment will have come in through Turkey, it owes the Turks that much.

I think Iran will pull Hezbollah in the defend Lebanon. ISIL may have eyes on Lebanon, but I think it will be more interested in Iraq. In time.

The information here is that Assad and his family are in Moscow and have been granted asylum.

Question: name one such dictatorial regime that collapsed when eve4ryone tired of it that was not followed by a bloodbath? Think Libya, Iraq. What will happen next, other than those with money fleeing to Europe? They have no tradition of a civil society where people accept the laws for any reason other than fear.

Think of Afghanistan - that might be a closer comparison. Was/Is there a bloodbath? I simply don’t follow what happens there, however if there was anything extreme - I guess I would’ve heard.
Our air force is pounding assad’s stocks of arms. Just in case I guess lest they fall into wrong hands

The biggest stocks of arms in Syria didn't belong to Assad. They are the Russian naval port and the American security area.

The American forces have already demonstrated their ability to hold the line against Wagner Group.

Hopefully, the Russians can do likewise. If not...

Nik wrote: "Think of Afghanistan - that might be a closer comparison. Was/Is there a bloodbath? I simply don’t follow what happens there, however if there was anything extreme - I guess I would’ve heard.
Our a..."

No bloodbath. No freedom - the strictest Moslem law imposed. Women are chattels. If that is your idea of heaven, good for you. There is also near starvation in places.

Israel's air force can't stop bombing someone else. You get rid of Assad and now what? Why, keep bombing.

There is a huge distance between bloodbath and heaven, in Syria was bloodbath in Afghanistan at least that hasn't happened.
We didn't get rid of assad, rebels did. Arguably, we might've acquired troublesome neighbors. assad didn't bother us. However, our army crossed 1974 demarcation lines and occupied all overbearing defensive positions.

What makes you think there wasn't a bloodbath in Afghanistan? Are you going off the MSM reports?

If you look for the stories of Western operators who were in country at the time, you find story after story of racing against the Taliban to save friendlies. When the Taliban got there first...

The MSM didn't report on that because it was contrary to their pro-Biden agenda. If you don't believe me, consider how fast they blamed the debacle on Trump. You know, the Orange Menace who negotiated the treaty which Uncle Joe abandoned.

When was the last time you heard talking head mention all the arms we left in Afghanistan? How much will you be told about what is going to happen in Syria?

I mentioned earlier that I have no idea whether there was a bloodbath or not after taliban seized control. Ian says there wasn’t. I haven’t heard about one either, but it can be, as you mention. because media haven’t reported about them or have no access to what’s happening there. 🤷🏼

Ι didn't say there wasn't - merely that I had to concede I hadn't heard of one.

On the other hand, I have heard essentially all educational possibilities for those chattels called women have stopped

Without secure Syrian bases through which Russia could carry out logistic support of several African tyrannies, how long until we see dominoes falling in Niger and surrounding countries?

Has anyone seen video evidence of Assad and/or his family alive in Russia?

J. wrote: "Has anyone seen video evidence of Assad and/or his family alive in Russia?"

Yes, on our news.

It was almost as if a miracle happened. The leader of the rebels seems to be tolerably moderate and is offering the Syrians peace. So what does Israel do? Why, make about 500 bombing strikes in the last two days. That will guarantee a moderate leader cannot remain in power because the hatred will rise up. It appears Israel's attitude is they have by far the strongest air force in the region so let's destroy part of Syria.

Ian, I usually support your non-covid posts but must take issue with your point about the new Syrian leader being 'tolerably moderate'.

Don't live every moment of a situation and don't automatically believe the parts of the MSM you want to hear. Always look at the bigger, broader picture. Have your eye on the road ahead, not your bonnet.

I do this, which is why I'm eventually proven right on every topic, despite receiving short-term derision (yes, Papaphilly and Nik, there will be more lockdowns and Zelensky will likely be toppled by his own people, either in a coup or an eventual election).

It doesn't matter what Al Jolani is saying now. He was an extremist and many of his followers still are. If he's changed, he will be usurped. No ifs, no buts, Syria will be the new breeding ground for lawlessness, Islamic extremism and jihad.

Getting rid of the Man at C&A was a complete disaster. Syria's Christians are now in grave danger and the surrounding region in an even more perilous state. There is no silver lining to the fall of Assad.

Beau, my comment was not that Syria will become a place of enlightenment. No, that these guys came from the centre of jihad meant that at best, he could only be modestly moderate. But, and an important but, he would have appeared moderate enough to give people like Christians time to flee.

israel's bombing merely will unite a lot of Muslims elsewhere As an example, yesterday a synagogue in Melbourne was torched. This will not end well

Israel takes necessary precautions - to make sure assad’s deserted hardware doesn’t reach dangerous jihadists. Can’t have this risk unchecked, as you might agree

Ian wrote: "It was almost as if a miracle happened. The leader of the rebels seems to be tolerably moderate and is offering the Syrians peace. So what does Israel do? Why, make about 500 bombing strikes in the..."

No miracles. Castro spewed the same crap, at first.

The point of the post was not what al Jolani said. Everybody knows that the first task of of a successful revolutionary leader is to get the support of the masses behind him at least to the extent he can. Promising a glorious future, at least to some extent is mandatory. The US got Pinochet to spew the same crap before he went on his killing and torture program.

The point of the post was quite different and was "So what does Israel do?"

Only Nik really focused on this so maybe my approach/presentation was unclear? But just to respond to Nik, just because you think that some actions in another country may not turn out to your advantage, that doe not give you the right to bomb them. Bombing is an act of war. And guess what - the jihadists re already well-armed. That is why the revolution succeeded. And if it were not for the US military backing, Israel would not do that.

We are allies with the Americans and we are grateful for their support, however it doesn’t mean they back every our action. On the contrary, there are often differences in approach and use of force. Trump said that Bibi doesn’t listen to Biden 😎 https://www.foxnews.com/video/6363209...
I’ve no idea 🤷🏿‍♂️

That does not give Israel the right to bomb whoever whenever, but it gives the security of knowing there is no material comeback that will be effective. Hezbollah did not seem to appreciate that

We have the right to live in security and eliminate those who undermine it. We haven’t attacked hamas and hezbollah, they attacked us. We don’t need to wait for jihadists to do the same

That defence is much the same as offered if you walk up the street, king hit someone, kill him, and claim it was self-defence because he was going to invade your home, not that you actually have any evidence

Sure, for you Israel and Ukraine would always be the bad guys, while hamas, hezbbollah, jihadists, ayatollah, putler - the good. I guess it might primarily tell something about yourself

This is not about "good" or "bad". You define good as being in accord with what you want. You then assume everyone that does something different is bad. You also totally avooided thepoint of the question.

Ian wrote: "That defence is much the same as offered if you walk up the street, king hit someone, kill him, and claim it was self-defence because he was going to invade your home, not that you actually have an..."

When you have had your home broken into by the same guys and then they show up again, I can understand the reticence.