Friends of Victor Torvich discussion

There will be two Lists of Big Ideas about History: (1) about local history, and (2) about world history.
I found nonfiction history books with only two different Big Ideas about local (in time and geography) history.

The list is here - https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/2...

A short summary of "End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration" by Peter Turchin

Object: history of specific types of events in humankind’s history [not a history of humankind as a single entity].
Type of history: a traditional history of events.
Timeframe: local in time and location, mainly the part of written history [less than the last 5150 years].
Goal: apply mathematical methods (modeling) to specific events and make predictions.
The viewpoint of history: a precise science viewpoint.
Idea: using mathematical methods (modeling) for specific events will allow for making predictions.
(Conditional) Paradigm Shift: from a view that there are no laws in developing a specific local type of events in humankind’s history to mathematically modeling such events.
Relation to previous books of the same author: A set of books by Peter Turchin provided a foundation for multiple applications of proposed methods, currently called Cliodynamics.

A short summary of "Patterns & Repertoire in History" by Professor Bertrand M. Roehner and Dr. Tony Syme

Object: history of specific types of events in humankind’s history [not a history of humankind as a single entity].
Type of history: a traditional history of events.
Timeframe: the part of written history [less than the last 5150 years].
Goal: to analyze clusters of similar "elementary" occurrences that serve as the building blocks of more global events.
The viewpoint of history: a descriptional viewpoint [not a precise science viewpoint]
Idea: identifies the recurring patterns of behavior that shape the histories of different countries separated by vast stretches of time and space.
(Conditional) Paradigm Shift: from a view that there are no patterns in large-scale events to that large-sale events can be broken down into component parts that are rarely unique to these particular events.
Relation to previous books of the same author: None.