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Iran war
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To me, the interesting bit is the structural rot that shows up when you shake the system. For instance:Britons in Dubai fear leaving war-hit Middle East because they might get taxed at home, say experts
https://share.google/mtWgTaxIvWRmGttjV
You know you've gone too far when your people would rather risk catching a bomb than facing your tax rates.
To put it mildly. I don’t think there are many sympathizers of the Iranian regime, including among most Iranians. Removing their nuclear aspirations and threats posed by their army and missiles are sound goals, beneficial to the world. Worth an effort. The initial blow was impressive. The best result would be a regime’s change however it’s not clear whether it’s reasonably achievable without sending troops in, which isn’t on the cards. As an operation is ongoing, I guess we’ll follow further developments and judge the results.
Scout wrote: "Is this a war worth fighting?Russia is showing up. What will be the impact of that? What's Putin's motivation?"
Yes, it is worth fighting. You cannot make any peace with people who believe their God commands your death or enslavement.
Russia gives the Iranians Intel. We give the Ukrainians Intel. That's how the game is played.
J. This made me laugh: "You know you've gone too far when your people would rather risk catching a bomb than facing your tax rates."Thanks!
What worries me about Putin's involvement is that it would be to his advantage to expand this war to distract the US from Ukraine. He wants to make trouble.
I commend Trump for having the guts to do what other presidents knew should be done to stop Iran from having nuclear weapons. He's risking a lot to do this with the midterms coming up, so I believe that it had to be done now. European leaders are a bunch of wimps.
To be fair, Obama addressed the threat with an agreement known as JCPOA, which limited enrichment but otherwise had a few drawbacks, On a few occasions and just recently, Iran was offered a fair opportunity to come clean about lack of nuclear weapon’s aspirations, which they wasted.
The risk is too great to leave it idle. Hope the operation would solve a few problems.
This is how Obama dealt with Iran, a nation which has openly and repeatedly stated its goal of destroying America.US sent plane with $400 million in cash to Iran
https://share.google/4LyHy77rt621DrV2D
Wanna guess on what they spent the cash?
and this attention and air-defense distraction from Europe is the best time for Putin to attack (and probably bury) NATO. I don`t know if you see it, but here, in Eastern Europe there are rumours that decision to attack Baltic states are almost adopted and Russia gradually is deploying troops. Russians don`t need too much to grab a part of Lithuania or Estonia and proclaim "people`s republics" there, with an expectation that the US will not interfere.
Estonian Narva shouldn’t be very hard to subvert and I can think of scenarios where it makes sense. A question Whether they can be connected to Iran, puts us very deep into conspiracies corner 😎
Dmytro wrote: "and this attention and air-defense distraction from Europe is the best time for Putin to attack (and probably bury) NATO. I don`t know if you see it, but here, in Eastern Europe there are rumours t..."And then Poland goes hot with the apocalyptic arsenal we've been selling them. Seriously, look up all of the dakka that Poland has been stockpiling. They are a little European Texas.
J. wrote: "Dmytro wrote: "and this attention and air-defense distraction from Europe is the best time for Putin to attack (and probably bury) NATO. I don`t know if you see it, but here, in Eastern Europe ther..."the stake is that Poland will prefer to refrain for reasons of its own safety
Nik wrote: "Estonian Narva shouldn’t be very hard to subvert and I can think of scenarios where it makes sense. A question Whether they can be connected to Iran, puts us very deep into conspiracies corner 😎"well, it`s not a connection, just a favourable moment. and yes, rumours are about Narva. On my view Suwalky corridor has a greater potential for further expansion, but Narva people`s republic may be easier to achieve
If after a dozen years of Russian aggression in Ukraine Europe isn't ready to repulse Slavic Special Ed, then what have Europeans been expecting from their governments?
Has any official source confirmed the reports that Mujtaba is currently a comatose amputee?
In January, Governor Hochul of New York ordered that One World Trade Center (among other locations) should be lit with Mohammed's favorite color.Governor Hochul Directs State Landmarks to Be Illuminated Green in Honor of Muslim American Heritage Month
https://share.google/y6UfkE6ZWdniU5zMm
That land should only be lit one way.
https://youtu.be/1yKDziv9cPs?si=loRXp...
Is the US winning or losing the war with Iran? One fear I have is that we're expending so much of our firepower that it will make us vulnerable to attack from other powers. Is my fear justified?
The answer depends on the goals - so far Iran’s leadership and military sustained very serious bashing, yet the regime as it is hasn’t collapsed and the enriched uranium hasn’t been extracted. Probably aerial assault component will soon be exhausting itself and we shall see whether anything else is on the cards.Ammunition will need to be replenished and military suppliers will be happy to provide. Hope no critical stock has been depleted.
We are only two weeks into this thing. So, the fog is still thick.The Islamic State has been so completely decapitated that Israel has lifted the government approval requirements for assassination ops by their troops. Before now, if Mossad got actionable Intel on the location of someone on the "kill list", the IDF would have to get Bibi to sign off on killing him. Now, the IDF has essentially been told, "They had their chance. Anyone left alive is a target of opportunity, Fire at will."
As for munitions:
Two carrier strike groups is a hellish amount of firepower. We maintain eleven of them.
So far, US Bomber Command has only committed a few squadrons. We have yet to open the Gates of Hell that is the US arsenal.
There are two areas of concern.
1.) How quickly can we secure the Strait of Hormuz?
The world economy turns on the free transit of a handful of choke points. Hormuz is one of them.
2.) Will the Iranian people rise up to overthrow the Mullahs?
If this is to work, it has to be the Iranians who do it. Otherwise, we get Iraq all over again.
Beyond the Persian Gulf, the strategic position of the major powers is balancing on predicting the outcomes of the US midterm elections. Everyone who wants to tie up Trump will be working to advance far left candidates and sow discord in the States.Expect to see influence operations and posturing on a scale unseen since the collapse of the USSR. This will get worse before it can get better.
It appears Iran managed to lob two missiles with enough range to hit Diego Garcia. That's about 2,500 miles from Iran. One failed in flight. The other was shot down by the US Navy.My guess is that this is not a new technological leap for the Iranians. It is probably something they've kept hidden. As missiles in this class place London and Paris within range of the IRGC, I wonder if the Europeans will continue to slag off on the idea of an Iranian nuclear weapon program. Considering that last night an IRGC affiliated group claimed responsibility for an arson attack in North London, perhaps a strong response from the Brits is wise.
I'm thinking that it would be a good idea to arm Iranian dissidents. There will be no uprising if they know they'll be shot down in cold blood with no chance to defend themselves.
Why does Trump keep extending the ceasefire? He says that having the Strait closed is doing more damage to Iran than bombing them. He seems to hold out hope of Iran conceding to our terms, but who is in charge in Iran to make the deal? I know Netanyahu would like to bomb them into oblivion. Is that a good or bad idea, and why?
I suppose the current situ is because the air assault component has exhausted itself but Iran’s regime hasn’t surrendered. Is there a way to force them? Most definitely. Similar to how Bush captured Baghdad, Trump can conquer Teheran. However, it’ll likely come at a high toll: troops killed, ongoing fighting for some months and more. Not sure Trump and American public are prepared for this.Bombing Iranian infrastructure has pros and cons. The enemy will be weakened even more and maybe the regime will crack. However, They are likely to retaliate versus neighbors’ oil assets and deepen the energy crisis. People who oppose the ayatollahs will also suffer. And the result will still not be guaranteed, while uranium will still remain in hostile hands.
I guess the interim pause serves to decide what’s next - preferably with low toll and best outcome.
During force rotations, there is a brief period during which your firepower is doubled. This is an excellent time for hammer blows.3 US aircraft carriers in Middle East for first time in decades
https://share.google/ZuiW24c88aWvRUaPb
"I have spent the past several weeks traveling across Europe, speaking to members of parliament, government officials, and the press. My visit had one objective: to give a voice to the millions of Iranians held hostage by the Islamic Republic—by its terror and its internet blackout. Millions of Iranians who have been silenced. But I can now say with confidence that this silencing, this censorship, is not only happening at the hands of the regime in Iran, but also by the international—and particularly European—media. So I want to speak directly to the people of Europe. In the past two weeks, I have held two press conferences: one in Stockholm and one yesterday in Berlin. Between them, more than 150 journalists attended. We spent more than two hours together. And in those two hours, not a single one of the 150 journalists asked me a question about the 40,000 Iranians slaughtered on the streets of my country on January 8th and 9th. Not a single one of the 150 journalists asked me about the 19 political prisoners executed in the last two weeks. When I told them that there are currently 20 political prisoners sentenced to death, not a single one of the 150 journalists asked me about them. When I stood next to a mother whose son was killed, and a father whose son was killed on January 8th and 9th, and asked them to hear their stories, not a single one of the 150 European journalists asked them a question. Here, in the heart of a continent that claims to stand for human rights, justice, and dignity, its journalists have fully abdicated their professional responsibilities—and even their moral objectivity. It is clear to me that my 40,000 brave, innocent compatriots, who were slaughtered in the fight for liberty, are of little interest to these journalists. They seem more interested in criticizing America, asking why the United States and Israel killed the dictator who has slaughtered our people for 47 years, than in criticizing the regime that is doing the slaughtering. They seem more interested in asking questions about Iran’s past and history than about what is happening in Iran today, or about the democratic future that Iranians are seeking.One member of parliament even told me they did not think Iranians were ready for democracy. But to that member of parliament—to those journalists—I say this:
Iranians are not just ready for democracy. Forty thousand people have just given their lives for it. And I will not let that be in vain. So know this: whether or not Europe stands with us, whether or not your journalists do their jobs, whether or not your politicians demonstrate the courage to act, I will fight for my people and my country. Even if we have to do this alone, we will fight until Iran is free." Reza Pahlavi
Yes, the lack of interest and awkward silence about that many people killed during protests in Iran are infuriating. Far more than on Tiananmen Square at the time.
Nik wrote: "Yes, the lack of interest and awkward silence about that many people killed during protests in Iran are infuriating. Far more than on Tiananmen Square at the time."With Iran, Europe has lost its soul.
At this point, Europe is the reason motel rooms have that chair in the corner.They buy most of their energy from people who hate them. And killed off their own energy production capacity to save the polar bears.
They disarmed their population. And then they admitted thousands (perhaps millions) of military aged men, many of them from areas financially supported by Iran.
They allowed their militaries to atrophy to the point that the Royal Navy struggled to get one destroyer on mission to defend one UK asset. Seriously, the only European countries which are up for a real fight are France and Poland. And France doesn't have a working government. When they talk about a NATO response, they're referring to a million Americans wielding the most powerful arsenal in history.
To Europe, a war with Iran means a long cold winter with unopposed, machete swinging, servants of the prophet chopping up the locals.
Only 10 years ago the world looked like a much more peaceful place. Large armies looked redundant. Strong US military force and weak European was created by design.With putler shattering peace ☮️ and the US not necessarily friendly, Europe undergoes what some call a “strategic awakening”. With half a billion population they have a fair chance to survive and prosper, however they do have a slew of problems to solve
If politicians talk about "peace in our time", build a bunker and stock up on ammo.
The advice sounds reasonable whatever they say 😎
to answer the original question, I think it is worth fighting. The Iranians are going to stall and stall while building their nukes. This is not going to be easy nor short, but I think the blockade is the way to go n this case. Starve them out. I also think this is as much about China as it is about Iran. China buys Iran's oil at a steep discount and now they cannot. they have zero ability to take on the American Navy and have their own problems with the U.S. over trade issues. Everyone is being directed to American oil including China, except they will now pay market rates.
I ran gets starved and I ran loses a cheap discount.
So the American blockade is the best option?
I do believe this is the best option. They can starve Iran. There is also a second issue for Iran besides not being able to sell the oil. they are fast running out of storage facilities. If they run out, they may have to shut down the wells, which will take a great deal of time to restart when this ends.
Scout wrote: "So the American blockade is the best option?"It's the pause before...
What's left of the IRGC is scrambling for anything they can use. But they're bleeding out.
Some of them will try to run out the clock with the US midterm elections, in the hope that Dems will take Congress. Then the nice talky infidels will give them pallets of money again.
The hardliners want to trigger the Eschaton. They seek some glorious final stand against the Great Satan. To that end, they will try to force a land war.
The BRICS nations are doing the political calculus.
NATO is pretending to be relevant.
The question is Trump.
I'm a Trump supporter, but I am running out of patience. He keeps saying that Iran is at our mercy; he has positioned our aircraft carriers in preparation for wiping them out; yet he continues to let Iran negotiate, postpone, and prevaricate as they always have. What is he waiting for? Is he projecting weakness in order to lull them into thinking they have the upper hand, all the while getting his ducks in a row? I think it's time to make a move and end this thing.
Russia is showing up. What will be the impact of that? What's Putin's motivation?