The Sword and Laser discussion

Some thoughts on that one chapter. You know the one.

(view spoiler)[It seems unlikely that he is dead. He was stabbed in the midst of wildlings, and it seems unlikely they would take kindly to the betrayal. He was stabbed, but not killed, and I do not doubt Melisandre can heal him. I expect that what happened after his chapter ended was a fight between the wildings, the queen's men, and the traitorous Watch.

I also thought the note about Bowen Marsh crying as he attacked Jon Snow was really a nice touch. I wonder if Bowen, despite not liking Jon's ideas, hoped Jon was making the right decisions. Then when Jon appears to be gathering wildings to attack Winterfell, what would you think, in Marsh's shoes? Probably that Jon was about to betray you and all men.

I also doubt Stannis is really dead. In Bolton's note, he says that he wants Reek and his bride back, but they are, as know, with Stannis. It seems unlikely they left on their own, though it is possible. My suspicion is that Bolton did capture Mance and was bluffing about victory to cow Jon into accepting his terms. (hide spoiler)]

(view spoiler)[As I've said before, it could go either way for Jon. Although it seems hard to imagine GRRM spending so much time developing Jon only to kill him off, he could do it. It may be that Jon will remain dead for the entirety of book 6 only to be brought back in the final installment. Or it could be that Jon's wounds are not fatal and he recovers, only to find that the wildlings have taken over Castle Black and only a few loyal brothers survive, paving the way for a reformation of the Night's Watch (without some of those silly vows).

I think Marsh, Yarwyck, Cellador, Whittlestick, and some of the other brothers had been plotting Jon's demise for a while. I don't think that Jon's plan to go to Winterfell was the impetus of their attack. Marsh strongly disagrees with every decision Jon makes and Yarwyck is right beside him. Cellador may be a Septon but Jon's gods are the Old Gods and he's been seen cozying up to Melisandre. They struck at Jon because they noticed Jon, at the Shieldhall, did not have Ghost with him. That was the time to strike but the decision had been made before that day.

I don't think Stannis is dead either. Ramsay's note mention's Stannis' sword, his "red whore", Queen Celyse and her daughter, Val and the wildling babe. All of this he could have learned from Mance with a little "encouragement". Theon is unlikely to have been released by Stannis but Jeyne/Arya is another matter. The Northmen may have demanded that she be spirited off somewhere safe. (hide spoiler)]

(view spoiler)[
Jon Snow is dead.... He was being too Ned Stark. BUT he will be brought back by Melisandre. I agree it doubtful that GRRM would have spent so much time developing the character only to kill him off so quickly. I am torn as to what will happen after he is "healed" will he still be the lord commander? Or will his death release him from the watch and he will go off to become the lord of winterfell?

On a side note:

I think Jon is a Targaryen, being the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna Stark. Look for it the next time you read the books, you will see a lot of facts hinting at it. Im also starting to wonder if it is not Stannis but Jon who is "the child that was promised" or Azor Ahai reborn. (hide spoiler)]

(view spoiler)[Jon is not dead. My best guess is the wildlings defend him and take him off. The Night's Watch reactionaries expel the rest of them from Castle Black and elsewhere and generally undermine everything Jon had been building. Jon then ends up leading the wildlings (north to defend the realme or south to get Arya? Not sure) But this frees Jon to do what he wanted, which was to pick a side. Also don't forget that Ghost is going to know Jon's in trouble (or maybe even get taken over by Jon) and run and rip the throat out of Bowen Marsh about now.

Stannis is no more dead than Davos was. That's an obvious bluff.

I like this idea that Jon is a Targaryen/Stark hybrid more and more. Think he'll end up marrying Dany?
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Jon's soul went into Ghost, until he is brought back. Stannis is still alive. Heck even the Mountain is living in some form or another.


I imagine that this book was to make the readers question their desire for Dany or Jon to become ruler of Westeros. They're given the chance to lead, and both fail.

More reasons to root for Stannis to win!!!

(view spoiler)[It just seems unlikely the Jon is dead after being ambushed next to a bunch of wildings, whose number include Wun Wun.

I thought Bowen Marsh was just a huge jerk the whole time too, and I don't doubt he plotted to some extent. But why is he crying? (hide spoiler)]

(view spoiler)[Jon cannot be lord of Winterfell in truth. As far as the realm is concerned, Arya stands to inherit Winterfell. Of course that Arya is a fake and once that's revealed, the realm will recognize Sansa again. Her whereabouts are unknown to the realm. Rickon's whereabouts are known to a few and if he reappears before Sansa, he will be recognized. Bran is believed to be alive but almost nobody knows where he is. The real Arya is the furthest Stark from Winterfell and seems the least likely to claim it but she's still ahead of Jon.

Stannis is the king that would make Jon legitimate but if Jon really is Rhaegar and Lyanna's, that puts all of Ned's true born children ahead of him. If Stannis learned this and of the existence of any of the true born, his desire to seat Jon in Winterfell is likely to vanish.

"I thought Bowen Marsh was just a huge jerk the whole time too, and I don't doubt he plotted to some extent. But why is he crying?"

Jon was once a steward, which means he trained under Marsh. Jon has also been a brother of the Night's Watch for four(?) years now. He was Mormont's steward and presumably Marsh respected the Old Bear. Bowen may have rationalized his stabbing of Jon but that doesn't mean he was happy about it. I'm sure he would've preferred that Jon die at the hand of some wildling. But as that seemed less and less likely to happen, he had to act. (hide spoiler)]

I agree with Tom.

(view spoiler)[ There is no way Jon Snow is dead. The Brotherhood is going to be fairly well broken though, no matter the outcome. Stanis is alive as well. Melisandre would know if he was dead. The only problem is going to be that Jon isn’t going anywhere right away. Even if the Wildings win the day, or Black Brothers loyal to Jon, he is going to have to deal with Sir Patrek’s death. Lady Cassana is not going to accept “he got what he deserved.” as a valid response to a giant pulling him to pieces. Which of course it was.

I could see Jon and Daenerys getting hitched, and I can definitely see John with a white dragon to go with Ghost. He might even survive the experience, which has so far seemed pretty deadly.

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I wonder if Mormont's crow is being used by a warg or contains a dead warg.

A crow can be trained very well but it seems too smart.

Brian (view spoiler)[ that is most likely Bran trying to get to Jon, I think he would be doing more than just trees. (hide spoiler)]

Skip wrote: "Brian [spoilers removed]"

Skip, his last chapter(or the one before the last) indicates he is doing just that. Could be. Jon thinks about it a few times even early on in the book.

(view spoiler)[Skip wrote: "I can definitely see John with a white dragon to go with Ghost."

I can't recall if it was in ADWD or one of the two previous books, but there's image of a white winged wolf in one passage. I think it's a dream sequence, but the winged white wolf was also portrayed as something like having dominion or free range over all of Westeros.

Pretty telling image, no? (hide spoiler)]

(view spoiler)[
I think Jon IS dead. However long he will STAY dead though... we'll see. I've always seen him as one of the very few "main", the safe, characters, even considering Martin's penchant for killing of characters. I think Jon just plays a too important role in this world to be killed of by a bunch of traitors.

I don't think, or rather, I don't hope, his ghost went into... Ghost *badum tish*, that'd just seem kinda... cheap way out.

This could be a way to free him from the Vow to the Night's Watch or a thousand other things.

If he actually stays dead I'd be extremely surprised. It's quite possible that the Jon that comes back to life is not quite the person we've seen so far.

Actually this could be used as a method to finally clear up his heritage. We've seen that Bran could watch through the weirwood in Winterfell, even through time. Imo the scene he saw, Eddard contemplating in the God's Wood, actually was about Jon, if you consider that the comments make sense.

About him hoping that they grow up to love each other like brothers etc., that he hopes Catelyn can forgive him [for lying to her about Jon being his son, not being able to tell her the truth?].

Jon could be in a state between life and death and while there be contacted by Bran or the ... Wood-Man... and have a vision of Eddard confiding in his gods about Jon's heritage. Dany has had visions, if Jon is her nephew (weird) he also could have them.

Overall I see this as a major plot device for developing/changing Jon Snow, just as Dany's ... predicament... should do something to change her, get her to finally make up her damn mind etc.


As for the Wildlings reacting to the betrayal... here's my thoughts about that...

The Wildlings per se wouldn't care about the Crows betraying each other. However, Tormund, while pissed at Jon, is still fond of him, and many/most of the Wildlings have to know, to some degree, that Jon was the main driving force that enabled them to go south of the Wall, to safety. He even sent ships to save other Wildlings and overall went to quite some effort to save them, to regard them not as the enemy but just as other humans. That has to have earned him some respect.

This betrayal will certainly enrage Tormund and his supporters and all Wildlings who feel Jon has done, somewhat, right by them.
And the Wildlings who actually joined the Night's Watch will also spit on their Vow, seeing the one honest man who saw more than savages in them, being cut down by his/their "brothers". Other giants will come to WunWun's aid.

The Wildlings probably have little to no weapons but there are thousands of them, south of the Wall against what, a couple hundred Night's Watch.

I hope that Jon's assassination - very public - will spark a big battle between the Wildlings and the Night's Watch where most if not all of the Night's Watch gets destroyed. This would leave only the Wall, unmanned, as a final defense against the Others and would change the dynamic quite a bit, raise the danger a lot, the Others could actually overrun much of the North. Of course, the traitors would also get killed, very good.

As for the Wildlings joining sides with Jon's supporters against the traitors... I don't think the Wildlings will bother to check, they'll just attack every Crow.

As for Stannis, as someone mentioned him, yeah, I think Ramsay's letter was B.S., he dragged a few facts out of Mance - although I thought he'd hold on longer - and, don't know why, wrote this B.S. letter. Too many things don't add up, he only mentions well known things about Stannis etc. in the letter. No way Stannis would have let Theon and Jeyne go, he'd detain/protect them. So if Ramsay had truly defeated Stannis he would have found at least one of them, but his letter talks about both of them missing.
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(view spoiler)[So what will the cost be to Jon Snow if The red queen does heal him? (hide spoiler)]

(view spoiler)[I have assumed the crow was a warg since he upset the Lord Commander voting, but I don't think it's Bran. The crow was acting strange before Bran began to really warg in different creatures, and the only thing he can warg into through time are the god trees.

Benjen is a possibility, but my money is on the three-eyed crow. Either way, there's something up with that crow. Over at Westeros.org someone did a fairly extensive study of the crow, pointing out how it liked corn and such, and in Bran's dream it asked him for corn. It's something Mormont makes a point about being unique to his bird. (hide spoiler)]

Hey everyone,
I wrote a few thoughts down on my latest blog post. I'd love your feedback: skillsforlifescientists.wordpress.com...

Jess

(view spoiler)[ I like Jon as much as the next guy, but he was breaking his oath to the Night's Watch.

He was gathering forces to abandon the wall. Heck, Ned would have cut off his head for desertion.

I think Jon will be brought back to life somehow, will be interesting to see how. (hide spoiler)]

(view spoiler)[Jess wrote: "Jon decides to ride south, breaking his vows to attack the Boltons at Winterfell."

Jon did not break any vow. He was intent on riding to Winterfell for sure but compare that to the time he actually left, intent on joining up with Robb. Lord Commander Mormont knew that he left and his brothers brought him back. Where was his execution then? Mormont was also privy to certain of the brothers occasionally breaking their vows of celibacy at Mole's Town. So the vows are not so hard as iron. No doubt the lack of new recruits to man the wall is the major consideration here. Jon's leaving the Wall is not technically desertion (anymore than Yorin's trips south or Mormont's ranging beyond the Wall). You can leave the Wall if you're given permission. It just so happens that the Lord Commander decides who gets permission.

It's clear that Jon at least feels as if he's committing treason but the Watch does have a right to defend itself. After all he is riding to the aid of the King (the only one to help the Watch and rightful heir to Robert). (hide spoiler)]

(view spoiler)[
Ray wrote: "Jon's leaving the wall is not technically desertion"

Yes that's true, I meant that he is taking sides and planning to attack the Boltons, which means breaking the "wear no crowns and win no glory" part of his vows. (hide spoiler)]

What ever happens to Jon 'Caesar' Snow, live or die or revived, his stabilizing influence on the wall is gone. Can you say White Walkers gone wild on spring break.

Also I see Bran 'riding' a dragon before Jon.

Melisandre was left at the wall for a reason. To revive someone perhaps.

It was hard for me to believe Jon would make the decision to use the free folk as his personal army. I felt that he had made his decision to keep his vows so many times that he would not break them at the first bad news from a crow. I gave a big thumbs down to George for this chapter despite his sprinkling clues along the way as to his intent.

I don't believe Jon actually dies. Was I the only one to notice that GRRM mentioned the cold at the end of that chapter?

My speculation is that the corpses in the ice cells choose that moment to re-animate, distracting Jon's attackers long enough for Val, Tormund or Melisandre to spirit him away for healing.

I like the idea that one of the wargs will take over one or more of the dragons. Since Bran was enticed north with the promise of flying, I have to think that he will be one of them.

Ooh! Major speculation! Somehow, Bran ends up in a face to face confrontation with Cersei, she kills him to prevent him from telling on her, Jaime catches her at it and throttles her in response, while Bran's consciousness takes over a dragon, maybe Rhaegal (who may have lost his mind over being chained for so long - why he's so vicious?).

As for the letter from Bolton, it's a red herring. At the least, one of the women was captured and flayed to get the whole story, but it's by no means certain that Mance was captured. The snow had not melted, & may not have stopped between Theon & Jeyne arriving at Stannis' camp & the letter arriving at the Wall. The story (of Stannis' attack & subsequent death) was made up of whole cloth. Ramsay's already been shown to lie with ease to get the results he wants, why should this be any different?

Hmm. I don't think Bran will get a dragon. Or, at least, the flying bit isn't the clue you think it is. Not in my mind. The flying refers to the crows, which he does use and fly in. The question is how long until Bran can make his influence felt throughout the realm through the trees.

I do like the idea of the bodies coming back at that exact moment, or at least attacking. Either that o the White Walkers attacking at that moment which is what allows the others to potentially save Jon.

And yes, the letter was definitely a trick. The only question is who was captured. I don't think Manse will die, though. It just seems... A waste. However, with him out of the way if Jon is still alive that gives him a clear chance to be King of The North with a wilding host.

Is it just me or does the chapter where Jon is stabbed make no sense. He refuses to act when he could become heir to Winterfell. He refuses to act when his beloved (possible half) sister Arya is going to marry a sadistic lunatic. He warns Stannis against the folly of marching with Wildlings through the North. However, when told of Stannis' death and some ridiculous criticisms, he decides to now act by doing exactly what he warned Stannis not to do. I feel like this is a red dream from Melisandre.
Jon has avoided foolishness like this all along, what would make him act so crazy at this point? If this is not some fevered dream I feel like GRRM has betrayed Jon's character.

Sorry, I was focused on the narrative flaws and made my own. Stannis is probably not dead, but timeline leaves some questions.

Wpbutchko wrote: "Is it just me or does the chapter where Jon is stabbed make no sense. He refuses to act when he could become heir to Winterfell. He refuses to act when his beloved (possible half) sister Arya is go..."

I completely disagree, I feel the choices that Jon made all were in character. I also feel that those same choices that so infuriated us as readers, making many of us grow to dislike what was happening to Jon's character and his narratives; are the very things that led to his betrayal. If Jon survives, and I do believe he will, I feel he will emerge phoenix like from the ashes of his failures and arise as Ned 2.0.

I think this was just an excuse to give Jon one of those badass burned limbs that Moqorro gave Victarion. He can't possibly die, he'll just be reborn a badass. Another theory is that Varamyr or one of the other wargs possessed Bowen and the others, and this is why they seemed so sad. One of them throws their arms up as if to say they didn't do it.

Wow.. The above is awesome.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I didn't feel like reading any more of ADWD after that chapter. In fact I had to re-read it. And even after that, somehow now there is a dent in my wall.

Anyway. Personally I agree mostly with Nonentity, and a lot of what you've said makes good sense. However, after reading these damn books I've learnt not to trust any sort of feeling or presumption about a character.

Regardless, in the spirit of things:

(view spoiler)[ I thiiinnnkkk (famous last words) that Jon will be brought back to life, as has been said, by Mel. The red priest's interest in Jon (and sudden lack of interest in Stanis), and the previous coming-back-to-life story arcs from Thoros are too coincidental for something not to happen.

It would be nice if he wasn't a wierd evil-jon like Cat seemed to become (death of Brienne & Podrick possibly the saddest (saddest not sickening *cough*freysbetreyal*cough*) chapter for me out of the series). Though even then, the re-animated versions seem to be amplified versions of the person. What would that make Jon?

The only positive of Jon passing to Ghost upon death might therefore be a way to keep his soul un-tainted. But, like Nonentity, I think that would be a cheap way out (not that I would complain).

With the mention of the cold, I think that was just a really good use of language on Martin's part to connote Death without saying, "then Jon Died". He's used the same technique throughout the series.. I don't really think there will be an attack at that moment from the WW's (but who knows!)

With regard to the Wildlings vs. Night Watch, again I agree with Nonentity. I don't think that 'all' of the Nights Watch will die though.. I expect it will be a quick affair, and who knows, the assassination may have been planned with the majority of the Wildlings (if my memory serves) in the hall, and easily dealt with. Restrained/trapped/other.. (?)

Finally, I believe that the lead up to Jon's death was on-purpose and calculated. I can't wait to see what happens next. Likewise, with Dany, she started to become boring (to me) and that was an echo, I believe, of her own tangent, getting sidetracked in the East. The climax of that waking her up to her original mission, and hopefully to getting the frell out of Meereen. (hide spoiler)]

An interesting point from Ray (message 22) within the Ruminations on the Meaning of DEATH (minor spoilers) thread:

(view spoiler)[

But none of that makes me believe Jon dies. Jon was seriously injured or dying at the end of his chapter but dying is not dead. I don't think that he will live his second life as Ghost. That's just too weird and unsatisfying. Melisandre saw it coming and warned Jon of "daggers in the dark" and even offered to name names. She did not go south with Stannis, she stayed for Jon, to save him. But I don't think that entails a resurrection. Maybe now Jon will heed her counsel.

But that is only a hope. If GRRM wants to shock (disappoint?) us, he can let Jon die. As with many other "death" scenes, it could go either way.

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I'm sure Jon is still alive but I can't figure out how yet... I do think his life in the Watch is over now though. I think he'll become king beyond the wall or something along those lines... They hint at his likeness to the wildlings all the way through and they definitely respect him enough to follow him as they did Mance.

I don't think Jon is dead. He took a knife to stomach and another to ribs but people survive worse wounds, and they don't have a red priestess with magical abilities. She wont return him from death but will save his life.(People returned from dead are hardly the same person in the series. They become just a shell or shadow,only a little more than a wight. So I don't think G.R.R.M will go that way with Lord Snow)

There is a trope called "Chekov's Gun", that suggest if a gun is introduced early in the story, you can be sure that it will be used at some point. This goes for all kind of characters, or any kind of storytelling elements. So in accordance to this theory:

1-Robb, as King in The North, declared Jon to be a Stark and his heir, just before he died. So I think at one point Jon will be King in the North or Lord of Winterfell.

2-The horn that will destroy the Wall; I'm sure whitewalkers will find and use it.(fake one burned with fake Mance)

3-Azor Ahai prophecy: I suspect Jon to be Azor Ahai; so far he is the one who really defends the realm against the Others. Especially if he has Targeryan blood in him. Yet he has no phsyical attributes of a Targeryan and he is a spitting image of Ned.

4-Oathkeeper: I suspect that sword to be the Lightbringer, and will find its way to Snow as (semingly)only remaining heir of Ned Stark.

So in my vague theory: Jon will survive, get lightbringer, become the King in The North, and defend the realm against whitewalkers after the wall is destroyed by them via the horn. He will be aided by his greenseer brother Bran, Tyrion as his advisor and possibly by Danerys Targeryan.

Only two characters I couldn't figure out are Rickon Stark and Arya Stark. I know at some crucial point, Arya will emerge from the shadows and kill an very important character(all that training is for that moment)but I don't know if it will be a friend or a foe. And Davos is sent to find Rickon. But ı don't know what will be his significance in the story? Maybe Jon will die, or will turn out to be a Targeryan and Stark dynasty will continue with Rickon's line. or maybe something more important?

[Spoilers]



[I would just like to point out that the red priest that was with Beric Donadarrion had revived him multiple times and was even able to transfer Berics life to Catelyn Stark. Also when Davos stopped at Sisterton on his way to White Harbor the lord there said Jon snow was the son of a fishermans daughter whose father died taking him to white harbor(see Page 132) I do agree however that Jon Snow Will survive, wether Bran, Ghost, Tourmend, or the wights cause the distraction is what I wonder about.]

The one thing I cannot wait for the most is to see how Martin will tie all the plots together if he does.

Yeah, but does anyone really think Jon is a child of Ned? He's a stark, but I think he's the child of Ned's sister and the Old King. Consequently, Arya probably isn't his half-sister.

(view spoiler)[ I do not think Jon is dead. A few stab wounds are not necessarily fatal. I suspect the Wildlings will subdue the Night's Watch and the balance of power will shift. This will free Jon from being tied to the Wall.

Currently, Jon is our only narrator at the Wall, except for that one chapter by Melisandre. So, I think Martin will keep him around a while longer. Maybe he will leave the Wall and Sam will return to the Night's Watch? What is Sam up to at the Citadel anyway?

I have suspected that Jon is the son of Lyanna Stark and Rhaegar for a while now. I could see him ending up with a dragon, but he is not fire-proof like Dany as evidenced by his burned hand when he saved The Old Bear from the wight.

As for Azor Ahai I am pretty certain that is Dany, not Stannis or Jon. First, she was born on Dragon Stone "smoke and salt" and gained her dragons when the red star shone in the sky. The smoke and salt could also refer to tears and dragon fire. Eventually I think Dany will make her way over to the North and burn the White Walkers with her dragons or confront Ice Dragons?! (hide spoiler)]