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“Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”
― The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
― The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
“If political scientists couldn’t predict the downfall of the Soviet Union—perhaps the most important event in the latter half of the twentieth century—then what exactly were they good for?”
― The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
― The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
“Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.”
― The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
― The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
“Data Is Useless Without Context”
― The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
― The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
“Under Bayes' theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.”
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Renato’s 2025 Year in Books
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