Renato

“Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

“The more interviews that an expert had done with the press, Tetlock found, the worse his predictions tended to be.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

“Under Bayes' theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.”
― Nate Silver

“Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't