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#5 CrowdStrike and Delta 2024

Software updates pose risk. Inevitably.

Stronger IT infrastructure would help recover faster.

Clear cyber risk responsibilities between vendors should be clear.

Adopt scenario-based risk analysis for explainable cybersec risk management.

#4

Resist the temptation to fixate on AI as it exists today.

Large action models with behavioral data with sensors.

# healthcare AI

Process automation left in the industry.

Process that are both high in volume and highly impactful when they fail.

# FICO: blockchain for data scientists.

Immutable record of AI model development. Responsible AI.

People challenge than technology challenge. UI/UX for adoption is tougher.

# agentic ai

SMART goals/subgoals for the models.

Careful team (of agents) selection.

Supervision, well-defined limits.

MANAGEMENT

Property managers; don’t micromanage them. Rather spend time finding another best deal
- handle rents, tenancy issues, maintenance, repairs/replacements, finances/records, insurances, rental increases

Tax deductions: claim with proof of payment
- loan interest, ALL rental related expenses (event agents), depreciation, quantity surveyor, accountant, bank charge, admin costs

The larger yr portfolio, the harder to get loans

Even if seller contacts you directly, try to negotiate through agent

Start close with final expectations so you can walk away easily too

If offer is accepted, organize pest &building inspection AND loans

After settlement, find tenants

Motivated sellers: Death divorce debt (or financial hardship) deadline distance disaster

Ask:
why is the vendor selling
Have they purchased another property
What settlement terms are preferred
How long have they owned it
Is it an investment or owner occupied
Is it tenanted
Have they had any offers
How long has it been on the market
Is the vendor testing the market

Process of buying a property

1. Your conveyancer
2. Offer process: give and take
- private sales: agent -> vendor
Try to be the first person to offer and set up negotiations so you have the last eight of reply with the agent. 48h limit on negotiation
- auctions: check laws if you can make offers before the auction date; sign immediately after the auction. Negotiate on settlement date

Cycle matters but holding onto it long-term would still give you profits

Factors that affect the property price
Location
supply/demand
interest rates
Economic outlook
Its market performance
Population/demographics
Size/facilities
Ex/internal aesthetics
Renovation potential

Low recent growth: avoid buying at peak
Low SOM
Low vacancy rate
High rental yield
Forecast demand/supply

Buyer agent 1.5-2% of price

Care about experiences of the professionals you are dealing with: accountants, bank, agents. Are they personally owning properties?

Fixed vs variable interest
Redraw facilities vs offset accounts
Principal+int vs interest only

Buying with trust / business name is different to obtain finance

Buying newish property at a good price would have advantages in depreciation tax

LONG-TERM GAIN MINDSET

Diversify across regions/tenants

For yr first 6 properties: under market value, capital growth, higher yields

End goals for next 10yr: to generate a passive income of $$, how many properties would you need?

And how long is the timeline to achieve it: 7-10yr recommended

Rent vesting recommended / joint venture not recommended

Strategies

Buy residential properties in a growth area that are under market value and have high yields (yield = borrowing capacity for the next).
= affordable metro properties in the outer/inner rings of major cities

You should not hope for going it up but know from day 1 that it is worth more

Compound growth with multiple properties + remember the triangle in the diagrams

“EQUITY GROWTH AND CASH FLOW”

NOT RECOMMENDED

Flipping houses, Build new, Buy-Subdivide-Sell, build Granny flats, Wrapping properties (wrapping interests), Commercial real estate (higher tax, more deposits)

Many fall in love with the idea of getting their hands dirty and building something from scratch. Unfortunately, when it’s complete, the numbers don’t add up.

Don’t chase short-term gain over long-term one.

Property vs stocks

Property will always be worth sth; never drops to zero

You can leverage easily with 5-10% of deposits and having it owned and you can use the equity for the next property. If if you have a mortgage someone is paying it for you = work smarter

Meanwhile passive income from stocks will be only 5-10% or have to put 1M to make 50-100k yearly

But maintenance fee and saving the first deposit

2nd rate agencies tend to post some inaccurate ads and it’s listed too low or high and that’s the opportunity

Many agents tend to upload new listings at night

Do whatever you can to boost yr income if yr serious about investing

Owners with financial issues or divorce issues -> might be in rush for selling

Don’t wait long to buy the next property

In real estate, how you look is extremely important

CMA,appraise properties, Full vs drive-by evaluation

better loan terms if LVR is <80%

Suburbs where price is lower than median but avg yields is above 7%

Make more sense to build portfolio from cash flow positive/neutral than negative gearing

If it’s interest only loan, onsider increasing rent during the period

Frankl going into the camp, losing his identity

#

손해도 모험의 일부; 잃었다면 정리하고 0부터 다시 시작할 각오. 독이 온몸에 퍼지기 전에 팔을 잘라내기

열심히만 한다고 생각하지 않으면 시간낭비. 언제든지 생각할 수 있다. 독자적으로 생각해라

성공 후 가질 속사정들도 생각해라

+ 10가지 권고사항/금기사항

# 남의돈으로 투자하는 사람들

펀드매니저: 펀드라는 자동차의 운전자
자산관리자: 고객을 엄청나게 파악하며 진행
투자상담가: 수수료로 먹고 살아 거래횟수 늘리는거에 집착
헤지펀드: 그냥 사기. 빚으로 약세장 투자

그들은 4G (돈 생각 인내 행운)을 지니며 깨끗/철저한 책임 의식 가져야 함

#

약세장
- 성장산업 최고기업 좀 올라갈수도
- 내림세 종목 폭락

강세장: 하늘 찌름
- 성장산업 최고기업 하늘 찌름
- 내림세 종목 주가 유지
- 최악 종목도 좀 벌수있

성장산업 누구나 아는거 말고 다른거

가격/PER은 심리적

턴어라운드기업

보수/투기는 개인의 비율 문제

차트 M W만 지지용

# 정보의 숲

택시 운전자한테 별걸 다 물어봄

행간의 뉴스; 일반뉴스 기업보도 시세변동 등 말고
뉴스 선별/뉴스에 여론반응 이해

예견한게 사실이 되면 페따꼼쁠리. 좋은 소식이어도 더 없냐며 하락

상세한걸 다 잊고 남은 그것이 중요한 정보이고 상관관계 파악해 그에 맞게 행동

내부정보 따라도 망할수도

# 증권심리학

부화뇌동파/소신파: 증권의 대다수가 현재 누구에게 있나?

소신파는 돈, 생각, 인내, 행운이 있음

코스톨라니의 달걀: A1과 B3에서 매수!

영원불변의 법칙: 붐과 폭락은 한 쌍!

# 중기적 영향

* 채권: 장기이자율과 주식과 경쟁 | 수요공급에 이해 정해짐
* 외화: 저금리 엔화 빌려 고금리 미국에 투자한 헤지펀드에 의한 영향
* 대중심리는 강력하고 대략 시기 안다면 반응 예측 가능

# 중기적 영향

* 인플: 인플 막기위해 보통 정부는 고금리 정책! 화폐 가치 떨어져 실질이자율 떨어져 주식에서 돈이 금과 골동품 등으로 쏠림
* 디플: 통화량 부족 -> 소비 x; 가격하락 예상되니 투자 x
* 중앙은행: 금리 조절; 금리 내리면 소비자/기업들 대출 | 금리떨어지면 아묻따 무조건 주식시장 들어가라

# 중기적 영향

* 돈+심리=추세
* 경기: 영향x; 기업들이 자금 필요로 주식 수 높아질때 단가가 낮아질수도 / 반대: 새로운 주식발행 드물면 중고차시장처럼. 불경기!
* WWI 후 독일: 발전 최고; 돈이 다 산업시장 -> 주식 낮 -> 정부가 돈풀자 돈 생기며 최대상승 =돈+심리

# 장기적 요소들

1. 전쟁&평화
- 전쟁에선 주식은 아무도움x + 외화관리법
- 전쟁관여안한 화폐/금만 도움

2. 장기적 경제 발전: 개와 주인
- 일본의 앞질러간 주가로 인한 실제경제바탕 디플레이션
- 국가/세계 경제 정확히 관찰필요
- 인간의 욕구에서 비롯된 경제성장추진력
- 장애요인: 성과물 처벌 정책들 eg 조세정책

# 주가를 움직이는 것들: 너무 많음

애널리스트들은 어떻게든 논리적 이유 찾음
: 그들의 분석 도움x

보통 공급/수요가 전부
매수자/매도자 심리적/물질적 압박감 누가 더 큰지가 전부

사건들은 증권을 “간접적”으로 영향 줌. 그들의 감정.

이걸 이해하지 못하면 가끔 비논리적인 주기의 움직임을 이해하지 못할것

# 증권거래소

시초 암스테르담의 인도 식민지 무역회사
: 항구서 체스하며 몇 달 기다려 소식 듣고 투자

사업가에게 빚 vs 주식회사
: 대규모 발전 기여한 주식; 은행만으로 불가

시세판 주가 본 시대: 멍청이들과 정반대로 행동위해 자주 감

세계사의 거울

산책 앞에서 왔다갔다 개=증권시장
뒤에서 오는 주인=경제