Harry S. Dent > Quotes

“Jack’s premise is very simple: You can boost performance by making a “game” of tracking and improving key metrics (i.e., real-time information systems) delivered directly to workers. “If you want employees to act like owners,” he says, “you should make them owners.” Taking it even one step closer to complete transparency, the company’s financials are available for everyone to see. There’s no top-down control and secrecy.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“The last significant bottom in this market came back in late 2001. I have a test for real estate based on my bubble principles and prices tending to crash back to their bubble origin. This isn’t perfect, but it’s the best indicator of what your downside potential is. It’s simple: Find out what your real estate was worth at the beginning of January 2000.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“When playing a bear market, the same rules hold: You want to diversify your risks, especially knowing that collapses move even faster than rallies. You need to decide how much safe cash or near cash you want to hold to sleep at night and to handle financial emergencies, like the loss of your job or your house. Then decide how much to put into longer-term high-quality bonds, like those 30-year Treasuries and AAA corporates, but I think it’s still premature to make this move at the time of this writing, in August 2017. Then decide how much you want to put into a dollar bull fund or the ETF UUP, which tracks the U.S. dollar versus its six major trading partners. If you’re willing to risk part of your wealth, you can also bet on financial assets going down—from stocks to gold. Stocks are the one type of financial asset that goes down in either a deflationary crisis, like the 1930s, or an inflationary one, like the 1970s. So shorting stocks is the best way to prosper in the downturn, either way. But don’t leverage this bet. The markets are simply too volatile. You can short the stock market with no leverage by simply buying an ETF (exchange-traded fund) like the ProShares Short S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SH). It’s an inverse fund on the S&P 500, so if the index goes down 50 percent, you make 50 percent. The ProShares Ultrashort (NYSEArca: QID) is double short the NASDAQ 100, which is likely to get hit the worst. If you make this play, just do a half share, to avoid that two-times leverage (hold the other half in cash or short-term bonds). Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF (NYSEArca: TZA) is triple short the Russell 2000, which is also likely to lead on the way down. So buy only a one-third share of this one, to remain without leverage. (That means the money you allocate here should be one-third in TZA and two-thirds in cash, to offset the leverage.) And unlike the gold bugs, I see gold collapsing. It’s an inflation hedge, not a deflation hedge. If gold rallies back as high as $1,425—on my predicted bear-market rally—then it could easily drop to around $700 within a year. Your last decision is whether to risk some of your funds betting on gold’s downside, for the greatest potential returns. You can buy DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSEArca: DZZ)—double short gold—at a half share, to offset the leverage, or just simply short GLD, the ETF that follows gold. There you have it. How to handle the coming crash.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“In terms of demographic growth ahead, Indonesia’s in the middle of the pack for the Southeast Asian countries. It looks good, but it’s not as strong as India, and it’s nowhere near Kenya, the Middle East, and Africa. Look at its Spending Wave chart (Figure 16-3). Indonesia has one of the longest demographic growth trends in Southeast Asia. It doesn’t peak until around 2060. But it does plateau after 2045. That’s another plus for Indonesia in the next global boom, from 2023 to 2036.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“MY DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH makes it crystal clear that emerging countries, outside of China and a few others like Thailand, will dominate demographic growth in the next global boom. But the even more powerful factor is the urbanization process, with the typical emerging country only 50 percent urbanized, as compared with 85 percent in the typical developed country. In emerging countries, urbanization increases household income as much as three times from its level in rural areas. As people move into the cities, they also climb the social and economic ladder into the middle class. With the cycles swirling around us for the next several years and the force of revolution reshaping our world, emerging markets are in the best position to come booming out the other side. That’s why investors and businesses should be investing more in emerging countries when this crash likely sees its worst, by early 2020. My research is unique when it comes to projecting urbanization, GDP per capita gains from it, and demographic workforce growth trends and peaks in emerging countries. It’s not what I’m most known for, but it’s the most strategic factor in the next global boom, which emerging countries will dominate. As a general guideline, those in South and Southeast Asia, from the Philippines to India and Pakistan, have strong demographic growth, urbanization trends, and productivity gains ahead. This is not the case for China, though. Latin America has mostly strong demographic growth, but limited continued urbanization and productivity gains. Much of the Middle East and Africa have not joined the democratic-capitalism party, but those regions otherwise have the most extreme urbanization and demographic potential. One day they’ll be the best places to invest, but not yet.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“the trajectory of history ultimately favors the more progressive side.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“So that’s where to look for the bursts in the next real estate crash. It’ll come from those cities where foreign buyers and wealthy speculators have driven prices to the extremes, specifically Hong Kong, London, Singapore, Manhattan (as opposed to broader New York), Vancouver, San Francisco, and Sydney. On the flip side, the most affordable large cities in the United States are Atlanta, with valuations at 3.1 times income, Dallas at 3.7, Chicago at 3.8, and Tampa and Phoenix, both at 4.1. These are cities where everyday people can still (barely) afford houses.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“Still, it’ll be a very good place to invest. Of all the emerging regions and countries, however, Southeast Asia and India have all three of the key cycles working to their advantage, especially urbanization potential and high rates of productivity combined. That makes those areas the ones to invest in.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“The important point to understand about commodities is that they have extreme cycles. That’s why the best traders make their money in this sector. And sudden weather patterns or mining strikes can cause tremendous short-term fluctuations, often exploding like a bomb! Unless you’re working with someone who has a proven system, don’t trade commodities. You can invest in them, but tread cautiously. Remember that commodities are all different in their ability to ramp up supply (elasticity) when demand accelerates. It’s easier to cultivate more land for crops or livestock in an era of urbanization, but it’s not so easy to drill deeper for more oil or unearth more industrial metals like iron ore, coal, lead, nickel, and copper. Pulling uranium and the rare metals out of the ground is even harder.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“My model here projects an 83 percent crash in late 2022. That’s perfectly in line with my Generational Spending Wave turning up again longer-term in 2023. But most of the damage should be seen by early 2020, when my four fundamental cycles still point down together. I would expect the S&P 500 (and the Dow) to be down around 75 percent by then and down 83 percent by late 2022. To go back to the original bubble origin in late 1994, the S&P would have to fall to 450 and the Dow to 3,800 . . . Do you want to sit through that scenario?”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“Today’s innovations are only enough to make a dying economy a bit more efficient. . . . They don’t create a new economy that launches into a new era, as did the mushrooming of steamships, railroads, autos, and the Internet—all 45 years apart. That said, artificial intelligence is on the road to becoming a disruptor. It’s still too early to change the game altogether, but it will increasingly automate almost all left-brain, white-collar work and free up more people to do creative things, like entrepreneurial creation of new and better products and more customized service for customers. That is the modern-day equivalent of the assembly line.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“Finally, the U.S. real estate bubble took a little more than six years to deflate, from early 2006 into mid-2012, with the worst losses felt in 2008–09. We face a similar scenario ahead: a crash from late 2017 well into 2023, with the worst hitting in 2018 and 2019.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“More traditional and conformist values ultimately give way to more progressive ones. Cultures that go against that progression regress or fail (ahem . . . Japan). It’s constructive that conservatives challenge new liberal technologies and values. That’s how we test these things and separate what’s productive and acceptable from what’s nonproductive and unacceptable. It demonstrates the ultimate principle of cycles and progress: the play of opposites. Like male and female, boom and bust, inflation and deflation, liberals and conservatives aren’t right or wrong. They are yin and yang. Inseparable. Together, they create the energy and innovation necessary for real life to function and evolve, just as opposite poles create energy in a battery. This dynamic has created the differences and comparative advantages in our global culture today . . . the very ones the world’s citizens are revolting against. And as this revolution runs its course, we’ll ultimately move back toward globalizing . . . to our mutual advantage and pain. The backlash against globalization is necessary at this extreme point, and it will take decades to work out. But it’s not the ultimate result. It’s just the pause that refreshes.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“The only major cycle pointing up is the 500-year cycle, and that’s why I don’t see the deep economic and financial crisis ahead as the end of the world as we know it, as some of my bearish colleagues would have us believe. It’s criminal that the president and his men and women (and, in fact, all world leaders and their “support staff” and their economists) can’t see what’s right in front of their faces! The worst years for these Four Fundamentals will be between late 2017 and early 2020. Period! There will be aftershocks into at least late 2022, before three of my four cycles turn back up again together. The demographic cycle turns up around 2023. The Geopolitical Cycle and the Boom/Bust Cycle turn up again after early 2020. Only the Innovation Cycle continues to move sideways until 2032–33.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“Not surprisingly, my number-one rating goes to India. Its scale and underinvestment in infrastructure and its urbanization trends give it phenomenal potential. Add to that the first apparently progressive, pro-business government in its history, led by Prime Minister Modi, and India is off the charts in terms of investment potential. India is the only major emerging country to reach new highs over its 2007 peak because of this.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“with stocks, bubbles tend to burst in half the time it took them to build exponentially.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“Jack’s secret is not just to reward people for their profit contribution in the “great game of business.” It’s to put real numbers right in workers’ faces so they make better decisions every minute, every day, for every customer. I would go one step further, and maybe Jack already has. I would give employees a minor share in the overall company, but I would also then use software to measure each individual’s or team’s contributions after fair overhead allocations and direct costs. This would mean the back-line “servers” have fair revenue recognition of their efforts on behalf of the front-line “browsers” who actually serve the end customers. Is this not possible in a light-speed world of software and business metrics? We need more real business leaders and visionaries like Jack Stack, not BS Wall Street leverage artists or old-line corporate managers who merely streamline their top-down management systems while their workers wait for their unfunded retirement and death. And we need real educators, like Neil deGrasse Tyson, who can make science understandable to everyday people. Most of all, we need people to love what they do so much that they won’t even think of retiring at age 63 or 65 or even 75. They’re so productive and happy that they don’t worry about a retirement that doesn’t make sense to them anymore, though it’s there if they have health challenges. They’re too busy satisfying their customers and creating new businesses to contemplate life without that fulfillment. They’re so focused on what they do that they’re like the champion basketball player who’s totally “in state” and one with his process. They’re certainly not bored or waiting to retire and do nothing!”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“2022. But what really sets this century apart is the addition of the Three Harbingers of Revolution! We last saw the most turbulent of these three cycles—the 250-year Revolution Cycle—during the American and Industrial revolutions of the late 1700s. The 84-year Populist Movement Cycle is back. The last time this cycle rolled through, we had to endure the horrors of Hitler and Mussolini. And there’s the 28-year Financial Crisis Cycle, hanging over our heads like the sword of Damocles. (Andy brought the 84- and 28-year cycles to my attention. I’ve been using the 250-year cycle for decades. I also have an 80-year cycle that is very close to his 84-year cycle.) This”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“There are six countries in the developed world with “echo boom” generations larger than the generation of their parents, the baby boomers. In rough order of demographic strength, they are Israel, Australia, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, and New Zealand. The next global boom, between 2020 and 2037, will be dominated by the stronger demographic and urbanization trends in the emerging countries, and these few “winners” in the developed world will also be the best places to invest.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“if this 100-year cycle holds, it will take until 2041–45 for this backlash against globalization to bottom out. Then we could start to see the beginnings of the next great surge, but likely not the strongest part until after the next global depression has run its course, by the mid- to late 2070s.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“Do yourself a favor: Don’t just protect your capital. Consider where you can live that will be the safest place geographically. I’m talking about areas like the middle of the country, or smaller, less bubbly cities, and the exurban areas of larger cities. Maybe even the Caribbean. (This is one of the reasons I now live in Puerto Rico, even though it’s bankrupt! At least it’s dealing with its crisis rather than printing money to cover over the problems. Even better, there’s no significant civil unrest here, even after ten years of recession.) I did not anticipate that Hurricane Maria may be a killer wound to this affluent island. But even in the early days following this unprecedented hurricane . . . no significant civil unrest!”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“What’s more self-expressive and potentially more profitable than having your own business that speaks to your greatest passion, either in your own small company or designed like a small business within a much larger one?”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“Deleveraging and detoxing of financial excesses works better than not dealing with the imbalances and just printing more money to kick the can further down the road. Only painful restructuring helps cure the extreme disparities in trade, debt, and demographics in Europe (and everywhere else, for that matter, at any time in history). In short, I anticipate a major restructuring in the eurozone, along with weakness in the euro and strength in the dollar for a while yet. After that, it’s likely a more neutral currency game, with a bias toward the stronger countries. This means they’ll be able to attract more foreign investment and lower-cost imports, but their exports will decline as a result.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“you were born in 1980, you have only a 50 percent chance of making more money than your parents. If you were born in 1950, you had a 79 percent chance, according to research done by Raj Chetty and his team of economists. That’s one hell of a drop over just three decades! Upward mobility in the United States was once one of the easiest accomplishments in the developed world. Now it’s ranked as one of the hardest.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“The worst crisis would be over the next several years, and it would then take decades to really pay off in a rising economic-productivity cycle again. Here’s what that four-stage trend looks like: Stage #1: From the late 1800s to 1945, the innovation stage of globalization saw Globalization Boom #1 peak in 1912. Two world wars and the Great Depression sorted out political imbalances before globalization could fully blossom again . . . and blossom it did. Stage #2: From 1946 to 2012 or so, we got the growth phase, or Globalization Boom #2. Stage #3: From 2012 into as late as 2078, we’ll get a shakeout period in globalization. Geopolitical imbalances must first be corrected before the next global boom can occur . . . and this will be a great challenge and take decades, not years. Stage #4: From around 2078 to around 2145, we’ll get the maturity boom phase with Globalization Boom #3. So, by 2140–45, the world should be nearly 90 percent urban, with peaking long-term demographic trends and middle-class living standards higher almost everywhere. This is likely to be the best the world economy will look for a long time to follow, and the next dynamic longer-term global boom from around 2078 into 2145 will rival 1945–2007. But between now and the 2070s, the global boom will be a much more mixed picture than the blockbuster period of globalization that ran from World War II to 2016.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“Use January 2000 as a most likely future valuation for your properties, and use 1996 as the worst-case scenario . . . then decide if you love it that much! You’ll likely be shocked when you look at your potential downside.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“the new world will be one where bottom-up, network-designed companies and countries will trump the old top-down hierarchies that have dominated since the Industrial Revolution. My motto is: Every customer a market, every employee a business. There is no way to make America great again by returning to the rote assembly-line jobs of the past. In the not too distant future, we’ll enjoy decentralized and instant access to information technologies that allow a more egalitarian, democratic, inclusive, and productive economy and culture. Ironically, it’ll be the complete opposite of how this revolution started, with its nationalistic and racist policies aimed at protecting against the extremes of globalization”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“Globalization is peaking, with a sharp backlash toward greater sovereignty and protectionism, exactly like the 1930s. But every cycle has its expansionary phase and then its consolidation and deleveraging phases. This is the peak of the dramatic growth of Western and developed countries and will lead to the continued rise of emerging and Asian countries. That’s why we see more volatility and civil unrest in those areas. We need to buckle our seat belts now to prepare for not only a great debt and financial-bubble deleveraging and deflationary period in the next several years, but also a time of true revolution in everything. I’m talking everything from political and social structures to business organizations reshaping and re-forming for many years, and even decades to come, just like after the Civil War. I’m talking the bottom-up network revolution in everything! It’s time to hunker down in your business and household finances. Cash out of the bubble in all risk assets for just a few years, even if you get out a bit too early. Crashes happen much faster than the bubbles build, so don’t wait for the horse to bolt before closing the barn door. Consider where you should be living and target less bubbly areas that are safer and more aligned with your political and social values.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“In short, when this modern-day Mount Vesuvius blows, it’ll decimate all the cities that have taken up root at its base, and it’ll likely take six years or more, into 2023 or so. Review your real estate holdings and consider what you really love and/or whether it’s strategic to your life. Get rid of everything else now, before the wheels come off this bus. Remember, real estate becomes agonizingly illiquid, fast!”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

“cycles are leading us into a time of revolution, chaos, and change. In the short term, that’s a very bad thing. But in the long-term, it’s like a big cleansing that leads to the next spring season.”
― Harry S. Dent, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage